MicroStrategy Stock Sees $6 Million in Bullish Bets Despite the 40% Crash

MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock has lost roughly 41% in a month, a far deeper cut than Bitcoin’s own slide. Yet the most closely tracked wallets on one crypto venue spent the worst week of that drop building long exposure.

Exclusive positioning data, options flow, and correlation readings now lean the same way. This analysis connects those legs into one chain and shows where any recovery in the share price may stall.

Smart Money Built Longs Into the Crash

BeInCrypto reviewed smart money positioning in MSTR perpetual futures, contracts that track the stock without expiry and are listed on Hyperliquid. Wallets carrying Nansen’s smart money label, a tag for consistently profitable traders, now hold a net long of $2.5 million.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

Their long-to-short ratio sits at 1.74, with $6.1 million long against $3.5 million short. Nine labeled wallets hold positions, up from three in May. Funding on the market is mildly positive, meaning longs are paying to keep the trade on.

The timing matters more than the size. On May 13, the same cohort had flipped to a net short of $131,000. The stock then fell about 35% over four weeks.

The group rebuilt its longs during the early June flush, which suggests the cohort may be treating the drawdown as exhausted.

Whale-labeled wallets, in contrast, sit almost flat at a 1.03 ratio across a $19.1 million book. The conviction is concentrated in the smart money cohort, not spread across the market.

Why crypto-native wallets are pricing a Nasdaq stock at all comes down to what currently drives it.

A 0.90 Bitcoin Correlation Frames the MicroStrategy Stock Bet

A 30-day correlation dashboard shows the MSTR Bitcoin correlation at 0.90, where 1 means two assets move in lockstep. Coinbase (COIN) follows at 0.85. The company holds 845,256 BTC, so the equity trades as a proxy for the coin.

Meanwhile, the macro links are weak. The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, correlates at just -0.24. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT), a proxy for long-term rates, sits near zero at 0.09. The US Dollar Index (DXY) reads negative 0.23.

That spread suggests the past month’s damage came from the crypto factor (BTC dump), not from rates or the dollar. Therefore, the smart money long is effectively a leveraged Bitcoin position.

ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), a speculative high-beta tech basket, correlates at 0.63. The link ties MSTR to broad risk appetite rather than to any single macro input.

The options market offers a test of whether stock traders share that reading.

Options Flow Rotated From Puts to Calls

The put-call ratio, which compares bearish put volume against bullish call volume, printed 1.31 on June 3, according to Barchart data. Readings above 1 show dominance. That spike landed two sessions before the heaviest selling.

By June 10, the volume ratio had dropped to 0.80, indicating that calls again outnumbered puts. However, the open interest ratio barely moved, easing from 0.98 to 0.97 near its highest level in 10 months.

The split reading suggests existing hedges are staying in place while fresh bearish flow has dried up. The marginal options dollar appears to be rotating toward upside exposure, which aligns with the perp positioning rather than contradicting it.

Whether that rotation pays depends almost entirely on Bitcoin itself.

Bitcoin Holds the Trigger, and Opinions Split

The Bitcoin price trades near $61,500 after dipping into the $60,000 area, its lowest zone since October 2024, down about 25% in a month. MSTR fell 41% over the same stretch, the leveraged downside of its proxy status.

The company, which now operates as Strategy, bought 1,550 BTC for $101 million at a $65,161 average on June 8, days after a small 32 BTC sale rattled holders.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe pointed to the buyback and hinted at a bounce:

Analyst Rekt Capital took the other side in an X post this week. He expects any bounce to be much weaker than the relief rally we saw earlier this year:

That tension between a buying treasury and a weakening base sets the ceiling on the chart.

MicroStrategy Stock Levels That Cap the Rebound

The stock has defended $114.28 since the high-volume flush on June 5, and daily sell volume has faded in every session since. Shrinking supply at a held floor suggests sellers may be finished at this shelf. Pre-market trading on June 11 reached $118.85.

The positioning data adds two magnets. The largest Hyperliquid long, worth $5.3 million, entered near $131.77 and liquidates at $101.70. The largest short, up $331,700 from $130.65, liquidates at $186.98 and could cover into any strength.

The street has already lowered the bar. Canaccord Genuity analyst Joseph Vafi cut his MSTR price target from $224 to $163 on June 3 while keeping a Buy rating, and Mizuho trimmed its target the same week.

With Bitcoin’s base weakening, the smart money long therefore reads as a rebound trade capped near $163, not a trend reversal.

The MicroStrategy stock setup fails if the cohort’s net position slips back under $1 million, as on May 13, or if Bitcoin falls below the $60,000 area.

The post MicroStrategy Stock Sees $6 Million in Bullish Bets Despite the 40% Crash appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source link