Morningstar sounds alarm on SpaceX as bulls target $190

SpaceX shares have drawn a fair value estimate of $63 from Morningstar even as bullish forecasts have pushed price targets as high as $190 following the company’s public market debut.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, analysts at Morningstar believe SpaceX stock is trading well above its underlying value despite the intense demand surrounding the offering.

The research firm estimated a fair value of $63 per share, far below the indicative IPO pricing of $135, suggesting the stock may be worth less than half of where investors are currently valuing it.

Discussion around valuation has intensified as SpaceX becomes one of the most closely followed listings in recent years. While Morningstar’s estimate points to a potential correction if investor enthusiasm fades, other market analysts have maintained a far more optimistic outlook and projected the stock could climb to $190.

Demand remains strong despite valuation concerns

Wall Street Journal reporting noted that Morningstar does not expect an immediate selloff despite its valuation warning. The firm’s analysts argued that heavy interest from institutional and retail investors could keep shares elevated for an extended period after the listing.

Adding to that narrative, market commentator Walter Bloomberg said the offering attracted more than $350 billion in total demand, underscoring the strong appetite for SpaceX shares ahead of the listing. Bloomberg later reported that the stock opened at $150, above its $135 IPO price, before climbing to around $161.68, giving the company an implied market value of roughly $1.96 trillion during its Nasdaq debut.

Evidence of that demand has also appeared across crypto markets. Earlier reporting by crypto.news noted that Backpack Securities and Sunrise launched SPCX, a tokenized asset on Solana backed by underlying SpaceX shares. Eligible holders can convert the tokens into actual shares, creating a blockchain-based route to SpaceX exposure.

Meanwhile, Binance Wallet’s SpaceX IPO campaign reportedly drew approximately $557 million in subscription funds. Binance listed 135 USDC as the indicative token price before fees, while the offering included a 5% underwriting charge and accepted subscriptions through USDC.

Crypto markets have amplified SpaceX speculation

Outside traditional markets, SpaceX enthusiasm has spilled into several crypto trading venues.

According to a report by crypto.news, Velvet’s native token surged more than 1,400% over the past week after the platform promoted synthetic SpaceX exposure through its SPCX pre-IPO market.

Derivatives traders have also gravitated toward SpaceX-linked products. Hyperliquid’s synthetic SPCX perpetual market has attracted significant activity as investors seek exposure before regular stock trading begins.

Hyperliquid showed implied valuations trading well above the IPO pricing, helping fuel higher trading volumes and pushing HYPE futures open interest to $2.56 billion.

Morningstar, nevertheless, argued that investor excitement alone will not determine SpaceX’s long-term value. The firm expects future performance to depend on revenue growth, profitability, and the company’s ability to justify expectations built into its valuation.

Limited share availability may continue supporting prices in the early stages of trading, according to the firm’s assessment. Over time, however, additional shares entering the market could increase selling pressure and force investors to focus more closely on business fundamentals.

Should those fundamentals fail to support current expectations, Morningstar believes SpaceX stock could gradually move closer to its estimated fair value of $63.