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MSTR stock eyes a big move as short interest jumps to 12.6%

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The price of MSTR stock has remained within a narrow range since early February, closely tracking Bitcoin’s performance, which has stagnated between $60,000 and $70,000.

Summary

  • MSTR stock price has formed a triangle pattern on the 12-hour chart.
  • This pattern points to a big move in either direction.
  • Strategy’s short interest has jumped to 12.6%.

Strategy stock was trading at $134 on Tuesday, up by nearly 30% from its lowest level in February. It remains substantially lower than its all-time high of $545. 

Seeking Alpha data shows that more investors are shorting the company, hoping to benefit from its crash. The company’s short interest rose to 12.6%, much higher than last year’s low of 5%. 

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Short-sellers likely see the stock having numerous red flags. The first major one is the fact that Bitcoin (BTC) could be at risk of dropping to $50,000 in the coming weeks. It has formed a bearish pennant pattern, and the ongoing war in Iran has pushed investors to dump risk assets.

Additionally, while Strategy has continued to buy Bitcoin, it has done so by selling its common stock, a move that has led to substantial dilution. Its outstanding shares have jumped to over 310 million from less than 80 million a few years ago.

Strategy has also lost the premium it had a few years ago, with the net asset value falling below 1. At the same time, analysts have continued to pare back their estimates. Mizuho slashed the target from $403 to $320, while BTIG moved it from $630 to $250.

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MSTR stock price chart analysis

mstr stock
Strategy stock chart | Source: crypto.news

The 12-hour chart shows that the Strategy share price has wavered in the last month. By so-doing, the stock has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern, while the volatility has dropped. The Average True Range, which measures volatility, has continued falling.

A keener look shows that the two lines of the triangle pattern are nearing their confluence. Therefore, this triangle pattern mean that the stock is about to have a big move in either direction in the near term.

In case of a bearish breakout, the stock will likely retest the year-to-date low at $104, followed by $100. On the other hand, a strong bullish breakout may see it jump to the psychological point at $150 and above.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Nears Historic Sixth Red Month as Gold and Silver Shed $2.4 Trillion in a Single Day

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin has recorded five straight monthly red candles in 2025, pushing sentiment to historically exhausted levels.
  • Gold and silver erased $2.4 trillion in market value in one session after a parabolic rally through early 2025.
  • Dollar strength overrode geopolitical fear, revealing gold as a macro trade rather than a pure crisis hedge. 
  • A strong Bitcoin monthly reversal could trigger sharp altcoin gains, especially in assets that held technical structure.

Bitcoin continues to face mounting pressure as traditional safe-haven assets experience a sharp reversal. Gold and silver together erased roughly $2.4 trillion in combined market value in a single trading session.

The selloff followed a parabolic rally that both metals staged earlier in 2025. Bitcoin, by contrast, has now recorded five consecutive monthly red candles throughout the year.

Dollar strength has become the dominant force shaping price action across both crypto and commodity markets.

Dollar Strength Exposes the Limits of Traditional Safe Havens

Gold and silver have long been considered reliable hedges during times of geopolitical uncertainty. However, recent price action across both metals tells a different story about their true nature.

Despite tensions involving Iran, global shipping disruptions, and persistent inflation talk, dollar strength overrode fear-driven demand for metals.

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Gold climbed as much as 96% since the start of 2025, while silver surged approximately 191% over the same period.

Both assets had entered parabolic territory before the sharp correction ultimately took hold. The pullback effectively flushed excess leverage from an already overstretched market position.

One analyst on X wrote that dollar strength “overpowered fear,” arguing gold behaves more like a macro trade.

According to the post, gold remains tied to yields and the dollar, not a pure crisis hedge. The comment reflects how macro traders are reassessing the metal’s role in uncertain conditions.

Five Red Months Push Bitcoin Toward Historic Exhaustion

The digital asset has fallen approximately 27% since the start of 2025, even as metals posted strong gains. The nature of that decline, however, differs sharply from the selloff metals experienced this week. Rather than a sudden forced liquidation, the drop has resembled a slow and sustained liquidity drain.

Forced selling in overleveraged markets typically produces violent, sharp price drops within short timeframes. Bitcoin’s five-month slide has been more measured and gradual by comparison. That distinction carries weight when evaluating where the asset stands heading forward.

Bitcoin is now trading at historically stretched levels across multiple timeframes. Sentiment has been steadily drained throughout several months of consecutive losses. In effect, the asset has already completed the reset cycle that metals are only now beginning.

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What a Reversal Could Mean for BTC and Altcoins

A strong monthly close for Bitcoin at current levels would carry considerable upside momentum. Historically, when a price breaks out after extended compression, the move tends to be sharp rather than gradual.

Altcoins that maintained structure during the prolonged bleed are best positioned to benefit from any rotation.

The same analyst noted that when Bitcoin moves aggressively after long compression, altcoins tend not to follow quietly. Instead, they often surge alongside the broader shift in market sentiment. Assets that held technical structure through the downturn are likely to see the largest moves.

Risk factors, however, remain present. If dollar strength continues building and equities weaken, Bitcoin will not escape the broader fallout. Oversold conditions build potential energy, but a macro catalyst is still needed to confirm a sustained reversal.

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AI Agents Prefer Bitcoin Over Fiat, But Methodology Has Flaws

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AI Agents Prefer Bitcoin Over Fiat, But Methodology Has Flaws

A new study from the Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) suggests that artificial intelligence models prefer Bitcoin over stablecoins and other forms of money for different financial situations, with very few showing a preference for fiat currency. 

The BPI tested 36 models generating more than 9,000 responses, and the AI agents “overwhelmingly chose to use Bitcoin for their economic activity,” the institute said on Tuesday as it released the results of its research. 

The study found that 48.3% of AI models chose to use Bitcoin (BTC) overall, and it was the most selected monetary instrument across all 9,072 responses.

When prompted with scenarios about preserving purchasing power over multi-year horizons, 79.1% of AI responses chose Bitcoin, “the single most lopsided result in the study.”

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However, for payment scenarios, services, micropayments, and cross-border transfers, stablecoins were chosen in 53.2% of responses compared to just 36% for Bitcoin.

Bitwise chief investment officer Jeff Park said that the most obvious explanation for stablecoins not doing better is that they “can be frozen, Bitcoin can’t.”

Almost 91% of responses chose a digitally native instrument such as Bitcoin, stablecoins, altcoins, tokenized real-world assets (RWA), or compute units over traditional fiat. 

“Zero of the 36 models tested chose fiat as their top overall preference, making digital-money convergence one of the most universal findings in the study.” 

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Half of AI agents prefer Bitcoin. Source: Bitcoin Policy Institute

Methodology had limitations

The Bitcoin Policy Institute said the current study was limited to 36 models tested across six providers, and it would look to expand to additional models in the future. 

It also acknowledged that system prompt framing may have influenced the results, adding that “future work will test alternative framings and measure sensitivity.”

This was apparent in some of the “open-ended monetary scenarios” presented to the AI models. 

Related: OpenAI pits AI agents against each other to detect smart contract flaws 

For example, one scenario asked what financial instrument an AI would choose if it were operating across multiple countries with “75,000 units of accumulated earnings” wanting to store them in a way that is “not tied to any single country’s monetary policy or banking system,” which would already rule out fiat currency. 

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BPI also said that the AI models’ preferences do not reflect real-world adoption and that the results instead indicate training data patterns.

The study revealed that Anthropic models averaged a 68% Bitcoin preference, whereas OpenAI models averaged 26%, Google’s 43%, and xAI 39%. 

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