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Nebius (NBIS) Plunges 13% After Earnings Miss and Massive Capex Spend

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NBIS Stock Card

TLDR

  • Nebius Group (NBIS) plummeted 13.1% Friday, hitting an intraday low of $88.40 and settling at $91.19
  • Fourth-quarter earnings showed a loss of $0.69 per share versus the anticipated -$0.42; sales reached $227.7M against a $246M projection
  • Capital spending for the quarter totaled approximately $2.06B, sparking investor worries about liquidity
  • Sector-wide weakness intensified as CoreWeave’s (CRWV) lackluster results triggered a broader neocloud retreat
  • Wall Street analysts continue favoring the stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and $143.22 mean target

Nebius Group (NBIS) experienced significant turbulence Friday, surrendering 13.1% to finish at $91.19 after touching $88.40 earlier in the trading session. The previous session had seen shares close at $104.88.


NBIS Stock Card
Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Volume metrics painted a picture of heightened investor activity. Approximately 22.8 million shares traded hands — representing a 68% surge compared to the typical daily volume of 13.6 million.

The sharp decline followed NBIS’s February 12th fourth-quarter earnings release that fell short of analyst projections across key metrics.

The neocloud provider reported a per-share loss of $0.69, substantially wider than the Street’s forecast of a $0.42 deficit — representing a $0.27 shortfall. Top-line performance also underwhelmed, with revenue reaching $227.7 million versus the $246 million consensus.

While the earnings disappointment initially triggered selling, the investment spending figures ultimately amplified concerns.

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The company disclosed capital expenditures totaling roughly $2.06 billion during Q4. Management’s outlook for sustained multi-billion dollar annual investments has prompted investor scrutiny regarding financing strategies and short-term liquidity management.

Sector Pressure From CoreWeave

The NBIS decline wasn’t an isolated incident. Competing neocloud provider CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) plunged up to 21.9% the same session following its own earnings disappointment.

Both enterprises compete in an identical market segment — acquiring GPU infrastructure and leasing AI computing resources to hyperscalers and emerging artificial intelligence companies. Market sentiment tends to correlate between these players.

This dynamic has emerged as a recurring theme. These equities attract intense scrutiny, remain opaque to mainstream investors, and demonstrate acute sensitivity to adverse developments within the AI infrastructure ecosystem.

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NBIS exhibits a beta coefficient of 3.90, underscoring its pronounced volatility relative to broader market movements.

Analyst Views Still Mostly Positive

Notwithstanding Friday’s retreat, Street sentiment remains constructive. Among 11 analysts tracking the name, two rate it Strong Buy, seven assign Buy ratings, one maintains Hold, and one recommends Sell.

The consensus price objective stands at $143.22 — substantially above Friday’s closing level. Morgan Stanley launched coverage in January with an Equal Weight stance and $126 target. Freedom Capital elevated its recommendation to Strong Buy this month.

Skepticism exists in certain quarters. Both Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings have recently downgraded shares to Sell.

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CICC Research initiated coverage last November with an Outperform recommendation and $143 price objective.

Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average at $95.00, while the 200-day moving average rests at $95.95. The company’s market capitalization approximates $22.96 billion.

Street forecasts project 2026 revenue at $3.35 billion, implying year-over-year expansion of 531%.

Strategic cloud collaborations with Meta and Microsoft underpin analyst confidence in the long-term revenue trajectory.

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For the ongoing fiscal period, consensus estimates anticipate a $1.10 per-share loss.

Institutional ownership accounts for 21.90% of outstanding shares, with multiple funds gradually increasing their allocations in recent reporting periods.

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Crypto World

U.S. Strikes on Iran Spark Debate Over Bitcoin Hashrate and Market Stability

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Bitcoin Miner Activity Hits Highest Level Since 2024 with 90K BTC Sent to Binance


Some observers noted that even if Iran controlled 5% of global hashrate, the network would continue functioning without disruption.

Bitcoin mining in Iran is back in the spotlight after a viral X post on February 27 claimed the country runs a $1 billion operation that could be wiped out.

The debate has split crypto observers, with some warning of a temporary hashrate shock and others dismissing the claims as exaggerated fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).

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Iran’s Mining Footprint and the Strike Scenario

The discussion began when independent analyst Shanaka Anslem Perera posted that Iran mines Bitcoin at a theoretical cost of $1,320 per BTC using heavily subsidized electricity and then selling it at the current price near $68,000 to extract what he described as a 50x gross margin.

He alleged that around 700,000 mining rigs consume roughly 2,000 megawatts daily, much of it tied to operations linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC.

Perera tied the argument to sanctions, saying Bitcoin allows Iran to convert restricted energy resources into liquid capital beyond the reach of SWIFT prohibitions.

A January 16 report by Chainalysis found that Iran’s total crypto activity exceeded $7.78 billion in 2025. Furthermore, the report said addresses linked to IRGC facilitation networks received more than $3 billion last year, up from just over $2 billion in 2024, and that activity often spiked during military or political crises.

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Nonetheless, critics quickly challenged the mining cost assumptions, with analyst Dasha calling the $1,320 figure “100% fake news,” arguing it relies on household electricity rates that cannot be achieved in practice due to blackouts and shortages.

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Hashrate Shocks Are Not New

The objections did not stop there, as miner ZynxBTC dismissed the concern entirely:

“Even if Iran controlled 5% of global hashrate (it doesn’t), and it went offline, the network would continue functioning normally.”

Recent U.S. events support that argument. Earlier in the year, the network continued operating even after a severe winter storm forced major Texas miners offline, pushing the hashrate down from 1.133 ZH/s to 690 EH/s in just a couple of days.

However, Perera argued that grid failure differs from voluntary shutdown. According to his analysis, with tensions brewing in the Middle East, a 7-to-10-day air campaign targeting Iranian military infrastructure would likely collapse electricity generation by an estimated 30% to 50%.

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He insisted that mining rigs require continuous power, and even brief outages could destroy active operations. As such, he postulated that a strike on Iran’s already fragile grid could see the country’s estimated 2% to 5% share of the global hashrate drop to zero within days, triggering a difficulty adjustment that would extend block times and temporarily spike transaction fees. As CryptoPotato reported, the US and Israel have already launched strikes on Iran earlier today.

Still, others argued that the Bitcoin network has withstood even larger shocks, with researcher Furkan Yildirim noting that China removed more than half of the global hashrate in 2021, yet the network soon adjusted as miners relocated.

“An Iranian grid failure would be a rounding error by comparison,” he tweeted.

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11 US Senators Urge Probe Into Binance’s AML Controls

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11 US Senators Urge Probe Into Binance's AML Controls

A group of 11 US senators has asked federal authorities to investigate whether crypto exchange Binance is complying with US sanctions and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements, citing recent reports.

In a letter on Friday to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Attorney General Pamela Bondi, the lawmakers urged a “prompt, comprehensive review” of the exchange’s compliance controls and its adherence to settlement agreements reached in 2023.

The senators pointed to allegations that approximately $1.7 billion in digital assets flowed through Binance to Iranian entities linked to terrorism, including groups connected to the Houthis and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Investigators also reportedly identified more than 1,500 accounts accessed by users in Iran and potential activity connected to Russian sanctions evasion.

According to the letter, some Binance compliance staff who uncovered suspicious transactions were later dismissed, and law enforcement agencies said the exchange had become less cooperative in providing customer information.

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Related: Binance stablecoin reserves have sunk 19% since November

Senators warn Binance products could enable sanctions evasion

Senators Chris Van Hollen and Ruben Gallego, joined by Angela D. Alsobrooks, Andy Kim, Raphael Warnock, Tina Smith, Catherine Cortez Masto, Mark R. Warner, Elizabeth Warren, Jack Reed and Lisa Blunt Rochester, signed the letter.

They also raised concerns about newer products, including payment cards launched in parts of the former Soviet Union and partnerships tied to stablecoin initiatives, which they warned could facilitate sanctions evasion.

The senators asked the agencies to report by March 13 on any steps taken to examine the exchange’s conduct.

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Senators ask for probe into Binance. Source: Senate

On Tuesday, Senator Richard Blumenthal, ranking member of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, also launched a congressional inquiry into Binance. He sent a letter to Binance CEO Richard Teng requesting documents and internal records related to the exchange’s sanctions controls.

Related: Binance confirms employee targeted as three arrested in France break-in

Binance denies Iran-linked transaction claims

In a statement to Cointelegraph this week, Binance rejected allegations that its platform facilitated illicit transactions, saying it identified and reported suspicious activity to authorities and does not allow Iranian users. A company spokesperson said recent media coverage misrepresented the exchange’s operations.

Last week, the exchange also disputed a report claiming it processed more than $1 billion in Iran-linked transfers and denied dismissing investigators over the issue.

Teng has also criticized a Wall Street Journal report alleging $1.7 billion in Iran-related activity, calling it defamatory and seeking a retraction.

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Magazine: How crypto laws changed in 2025 — and how they’ll change in 2026