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Nebius (NBIS) Plunges 13% After Earnings Miss and Massive Capex Spend

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NBIS Stock Card

TLDR

  • Nebius Group (NBIS) plummeted 13.1% Friday, hitting an intraday low of $88.40 and settling at $91.19
  • Fourth-quarter earnings showed a loss of $0.69 per share versus the anticipated -$0.42; sales reached $227.7M against a $246M projection
  • Capital spending for the quarter totaled approximately $2.06B, sparking investor worries about liquidity
  • Sector-wide weakness intensified as CoreWeave’s (CRWV) lackluster results triggered a broader neocloud retreat
  • Wall Street analysts continue favoring the stock with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and $143.22 mean target

Nebius Group (NBIS) experienced significant turbulence Friday, surrendering 13.1% to finish at $91.19 after touching $88.40 earlier in the trading session. The previous session had seen shares close at $104.88.


NBIS Stock Card
Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Volume metrics painted a picture of heightened investor activity. Approximately 22.8 million shares traded hands — representing a 68% surge compared to the typical daily volume of 13.6 million.

The sharp decline followed NBIS’s February 12th fourth-quarter earnings release that fell short of analyst projections across key metrics.

The neocloud provider reported a per-share loss of $0.69, substantially wider than the Street’s forecast of a $0.42 deficit — representing a $0.27 shortfall. Top-line performance also underwhelmed, with revenue reaching $227.7 million versus the $246 million consensus.

While the earnings disappointment initially triggered selling, the investment spending figures ultimately amplified concerns.

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The company disclosed capital expenditures totaling roughly $2.06 billion during Q4. Management’s outlook for sustained multi-billion dollar annual investments has prompted investor scrutiny regarding financing strategies and short-term liquidity management.

Sector Pressure From CoreWeave

The NBIS decline wasn’t an isolated incident. Competing neocloud provider CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) plunged up to 21.9% the same session following its own earnings disappointment.

Both enterprises compete in an identical market segment — acquiring GPU infrastructure and leasing AI computing resources to hyperscalers and emerging artificial intelligence companies. Market sentiment tends to correlate between these players.

This dynamic has emerged as a recurring theme. These equities attract intense scrutiny, remain opaque to mainstream investors, and demonstrate acute sensitivity to adverse developments within the AI infrastructure ecosystem.

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NBIS exhibits a beta coefficient of 3.90, underscoring its pronounced volatility relative to broader market movements.

Analyst Views Still Mostly Positive

Notwithstanding Friday’s retreat, Street sentiment remains constructive. Among 11 analysts tracking the name, two rate it Strong Buy, seven assign Buy ratings, one maintains Hold, and one recommends Sell.

The consensus price objective stands at $143.22 — substantially above Friday’s closing level. Morgan Stanley launched coverage in January with an Equal Weight stance and $126 target. Freedom Capital elevated its recommendation to Strong Buy this month.

Skepticism exists in certain quarters. Both Wall Street Zen and Weiss Ratings have recently downgraded shares to Sell.

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CICC Research initiated coverage last November with an Outperform recommendation and $143 price objective.

Technical indicators show the 50-day moving average at $95.00, while the 200-day moving average rests at $95.95. The company’s market capitalization approximates $22.96 billion.

Street forecasts project 2026 revenue at $3.35 billion, implying year-over-year expansion of 531%.

Strategic cloud collaborations with Meta and Microsoft underpin analyst confidence in the long-term revenue trajectory.

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For the ongoing fiscal period, consensus estimates anticipate a $1.10 per-share loss.

Institutional ownership accounts for 21.90% of outstanding shares, with multiple funds gradually increasing their allocations in recent reporting periods.

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Crypto World

Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

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Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

The impact of stablecoins on the banking sector appears “limited” at the current phase of the adoption cycle, but banks could face increasing competition and an erosion of market share as the stablecoin sector and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grow in market capitalization. 

“So far, the use of stablecoins remains limited, but their market capitalization exceeded $300 billion at the end of last year,” Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president of Moody’s Investors Service Digital Economy Group, told Cointelegraph.

The stablecoin market cap has surged past $300 billion. Source: RWA.xyz

The role of stablecoins in payments, cross-border commerce and onchain finance is “expanding,” despite their currently limited role, Srivastava said, adding that existing payment systems in the US are already “fast, low-cost and trusted.” He said:

“For the banking sector, at this stage, disruption risk appears limited. In the near term, US rules that prohibit stablecoins from paying yield mean they are unlikely to replace traditional deposits at scale domestically.”

However, over time, growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs, traditional or physical financial assets represented on a blockchain by a token, could place “pressure” on the banking sector, leading to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity, he said.

Stablecoin regulatory policy has become a hot-button issue among crypto industry executives and those in the banking sector, with fears that yield-bearing stablecoins could erode banking market share proving to be a stumbling block for the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in Congress. 

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Related: Stablecoins behave like FX markets as liquidity splits: Eco CEO

CLARITY Act stalled, as banks fight yield-bearing stablecoins

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as the CLARITY Act, is a comprehensive crypto market regulatory framework that establishes an asset taxonomy, regulatory jurisdiction and oversight over the crypto markets.

The CLARITY crypto market structure bill. Source: US Congress

It is now stalled in Congress after a group of crypto industry companies, led by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, publicly stated opposition to earlier drafts of the bill.

A lack of legal protections for open-source software developers and a prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins were among some of the most contentious issues cited by crypto industry opponents of the legislation.

Several attempts have been made by US lawmakers and the White House to negotiate a bill acceptable to both the crypto industry and the bank lobby.

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Earlier this month, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he plans to release an updated draft bill proposal that would be acceptable to both sides; however, the bill has reportedly received pushback, according to Politico, and has yet to be publicly released. 

However, other crypto industry executives and market analysts have warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, it could open the crypto industry up to future regulatory crackdowns by hostile lawmakers and officials.

Magazine: Stablecoins will see explosive growth in 2025 as world embraces asset class