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Nevada sues Kalshi in fresh prediction market showdown

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Nevada sues Kalshi in fresh prediction market showdown

The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a civil enforcement action against KalshiEX LLC, accusing the federally regulated prediction market of offering unlicensed wagering in the state.

Summary

  • The Nevada Gaming Control Board has filed a civil enforcement action against Kalshi, alleging its sports-linked event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling under state law.
  • Kalshi is seeking to move the case to federal court, arguing it operates under the exclusive jurisdiction of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
  • The lawsuit adds to a growing national battle between state gaming regulators and federally regulated prediction markets, with multiple states taking similar action.

Nevada moves to block Kalshi’s event trading

In a complaint filed in Carson City District Court, regulators argue that Kalshi’s sports-linked “event contracts” amount to gambling under Nevada law. The state is seeking declaratory relief and an injunction to stop the company from operating in Nevada without a gaming license.

According to the complaint, making “event contracts” available to Nevada residents without approval from the Nevada Gaming Commission violates multiple provisions of the state’s gaming code.

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“The Board continues to vigorously fulfill its obligation to safeguard Nevada residents and gaming patrons,” said NGCB Chairman Mike Dreitzer.

Kalshi quickly moved to shift the case to federal court, reiterating its long-standing position that it falls under the exclusive jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and not state gaming regulators.

State law vs. Federal oversight

Kalshi maintains that its contracts are financial derivatives regulated by the U.S. CFTC, not traditional bets. The company operates as a CFTC-designated exchange and says federal law preempts state gaming rules.

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Nevada disagrees. Regulators argue that contracts tied to sports outcomes mirror sportsbook wagers and fall squarely under state jurisdiction.

The Board says allowing unlicensed operators would undermine Nevada’s tightly controlled gaming framework.

Nevada also recently sued the crypto exchange Coinbase over prediction markets launched through a Kalshi partnership.

The lawsuits come amid a growing national legal battle over whether prediction markets such as Kalshi fall under state gambling laws or are exclusively governed by federal regulators. States including Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio and Tennessee have also challenged prediction markets, issuing cease-and-desist orders or filing lawsuits to block unlicensed sports event contracts.

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Meanwhile, the CFTC has pushed back, defending its authority over event contracts. In earlier disputes, Kalshi secured temporary relief in court, though those wins have been limited and closely watched.

At issue is who controls the fast-growing prediction market sector — federal derivatives regulators or state gaming boards.

The outcome could reshape how Americans trade on elections, sports and economic events. It may also determine whether prediction markets operate nationwide under a single federal regime, or face a patchwork of state gambling laws.

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Saudi Arabia Leads the AI Revolution with Global AI Show 2026

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Saudi Arabia Leads the AI Revolution with Global AI Show 2026

Editor’s note: The Global AI Show in Riyadh signals how rapidly AI is moving from labs into everyday business, healthcare, and public life. This editorial looks at why the GAIS Riyadh edition matters for innovators, policymakers, and investors alike, and how responsible AI practices can help societies reap the benefits while mitigating risks. As the AI ecosystem expands across regions, high-profile events shape standards, collaboration, and opportunity. Crypto Breaking News aims to illuminate what this gathering could mean for global AI adoption and the maturation of AI-enabled industries.

Key points

  • GAIS 2026 in Riyadh focuses on AI across sectors including business, healthcare, and user-centric applications.
  • Ethics, regulation, and responsible AI deployment are central themes with dialogue on data privacy and algorithmic fairness.
  • Attendees will engage with AI tools and real-world business applications.
  • A distinguished lineup of global leaders and innovators, including Nate Glubish, Shafi Ahmed, John Nosta, Janet Adams, and Jeanie Fang.

Why this matters

GAIS Riyadh positions Saudi Arabia as a hub for AI-driven growth and international collaboration. The event’s blend of strategy discussions, hands-on demonstrations, and policy-focused sessions underscores how responsible, human-centered AI can accelerate innovation while safeguarding privacy and fairness. By convening leaders from tech, governance, and healthcare, GAIS Riyadh could influence global norms, spur partnerships, and accelerate practical AI deployments that benefit businesses and citizens alike.

What to watch next

  • Keynote and panel topics on AI applications in healthcare, drug discovery, and personalized medicine.
  • Discussions on AGI implementations and AI-driven healthcare advancements.
  • The evolving Saudi AI strategy toward 2030 and its global implications.
  • The emphasis on networking zones fostering partnerships and investments.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

Saudi Arabia Leads the AI Revolution with Global AI Show 2026

The Global AI Show 2026 in Riyadh brings an engaging experience for anyone interested in the future of artificial intelligence. Organized by VAP Group and Powered by the Times of AI, the Global AI Show (GAIS) is planned with a vision to explore AI’s potential across multiple sectors, from business solutions to user-centric applications. GAIS brings to fore the transformation of different human spheres led by AI.

Attendees will be a part of deep discussions on AI strategy, machine learning, natural language processing, and predictive analytics. Participants will also engage directly with AI tools and platforms, which will help them with applications in real-world business issues.

Ethics and regulation are central themes, and hence, there will be sessions dedicated to responsible AI deployment, algorithmic fairness, and data privacy. As AI adoption accelerates globally, understanding these frameworks is necessary for businesses and policymakers alike. The event will encourage dialogue on how innovation and responsibility can coexist to create long-term AI solutions.

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Our past speakers were a remarkable mix of global leaders, visionaries, and innovators across technology, governance, healthcare, and cybersecurity. Honourable Nate Glubish, Minister of Technology and Innovation, Government of Alberta, Canada, has shared his insights alongside Pujya Brahmavihari Swami, Head of BAPS Hindu Mandir UAE. Professor Shafi Ahmed, a renowned surgeon, futurist, humanitarian, and CEO of Medical Realities, and John Nosta, leading innovation theorist in technology, AI, and medicine and Founder of NOSTALAB, have also been part of the lineup. Janet Adams, COO and Board Director at SingularityNET/ASI, and Jeanie Fang, Director of Data & AI at Crunchbase, have brought their expertise in artificial intelligence and data innovation.

Networking is a key focus, with interactive zones designed to facilitate partnerships, investments, and collaborations.

The Global AI Show places a strong emphasis on networking and collaboration, creating a dynamic environment where industry leaders, innovators, and investors can connect and explore new partnership opportunities. The sessions are designed to inspire forward-thinking discussions on the evolving role of artificial intelligence in shaping industries and societies worldwide.

The program includes a series of headliners, keynotes, and panels discussing the future of AI, its real-world applications, and its radical impact across critical industries. The topics address Saudi Arabia’s vision of an AI-led future and its implications globally, the vision for AI by 2030, and the changing partnership between humans and smart machines. These conversations will also delve into actual AGI implementations, the AI-driven revolution toward patient-centered healthcare, breakthroughs in drug discovery, the use of AI in personalized medicine, and predictive technologies transforming healthcare outcomes.

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Collectively, these sessions highlight how AI is reshaping possibilities, facilitating cross-industry conversations, and propelling the next generation of technological and societal advancement.

By convening global AI experts, innovators, and stakeholders, the Global AI Show reinforces Riyadh’s reputation as a center for technological advancement. Get inspired, informed, and ready to use AI for meaningful impact, and be a part of GAIS Riyadh edition.

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Ethereum Staking Address Now Holds Over Half ETH Supply For First Time Ever: Santiment

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Ethereum Staking Address Now Holds Over Half ETH Supply For First Time Ever: Santiment


The demand for Ethereum staking has skyrocketed despite the asset price crashing back to bear market lows. 

Ethereum’s proof-of-stake contract address now holds over half of the Ether supply “for the first time in the coin’s eleven-year history,” reported on-chain analytics provider Santiment on Wednesday.

This appears somewhat misleading, as approximately 37 million ETH are currently staked, representing approximately 30% of the total supply of 121.4 million tokens. However, Santiment explained that there is often confusion about how the proof-of-stake address works. It described the address as a “one-way vault that temporarily locks ETH to help secure the network.”

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“When someone stakes ETH, it gets sent into this contract and is removed from normal circulation, meaning it cannot be spent or traded while it is staked.”

Different Methods Of Counting Supply

When validators leave and withdraw, the Ether is released back into circulation as newly issued coins on Ethereum’s main network, “rather than being pulled back out of the vault itself,” Santiment explained.

“As a result, the existing supply can often differ based on whether only pre-burned or total post-burned coins are being counted.”

So over time, the “vault” accumulates ETH without it easily flowing back out the same way it went in, making the contract’s share of the current supply appear larger. This results in a calculation of 50.18% based on ETH issued historically before burns. Santiment predicted that this figure will increase, especially during bear markets and poor trading conditions.

“As staking continues to increase in popularity, expect that this address will continue its ascension, particularly when trading slows down during bear cycles.”

Regardless of what figure is taken, the demand for staking has surged, and the percentage of ETH supply staked is at record highs.

Additionally, the validator entry queue is also around record highs, with around 3.9 million ETH waiting to be staked, and the wait time is 67 days.

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Meanwhile, the exit queue has dropped to its lowest ever levels with around 11,500 ETH and less than five hours wait.

Ether Price at Bear Market Lows

Panic selling by retail traders has pushed Ether prices to bear market lows below $2,000. ETH touched this psychological level briefly in late Tuesday trading, but again was beaten back by resistance, falling to $1,970 during the Wednesday morning session in Asia.

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“Ethereum isn’t expensive right now, it’s boring,” said analyst Merlijn The Trader before adding, “boring is where positions are built.”

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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

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CFTC fires back as states target prediction markets

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has moved to defend its authority over prediction markets, filing a friend-of-the-court brief as state-level legal challenges against the sector intensify.

Summary

  • The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a friend-of-the-court brief to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets amid rising state-level legal challenges.
  • Chairman Mike Selig said the agency has regulated prediction markets for over two decades and warned challengers: “We will see you in court.”
  • The move comes as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission signals some event-based contracts may qualify as securities, while states like Nevada attempt to restrict platforms including Coinbase.

CFTC defends control of US prediction markets

In a video posted on X, CFTC Chairman Mike Selig said American prediction markets have faced “an onslaught of state-led litigation” over the past year. In response, the agency is stepping in to assert what it describes as its exclusive jurisdiction over these derivative products.

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“Prediction markets aren’t new,” Selig said. “The CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades.”

He argued that such markets play a valuable role by allowing Americans to hedge commercial risks, including temperature fluctuations and energy price spikes. He also suggested they function as a check on media narratives and broader information flows.

The legal battle comes as regulators debate whether certain prediction market contracts fall under securities or commodities law. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission recently warned that some event-based contracts could be classified as securities, potentially subjecting platforms to its oversight.

Meanwhile, states including Nevada have sought to restrict the operations of crypto-linked prediction platforms, though a Nevada court recently declined to block Coinbase from offering certain prediction market services.

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The CFTC’s filing underscores escalating jurisdictional tensions between federal and state authorities, as well as between financial regulators. Selig emphasized that the agency intends to protect the “integrity, resilience, and vibrancy” of US derivatives markets.

“To those who seek to challenge our authority in this space, let me be clear,” he said. “We will see you in court.”

The case could have significant implications for the future of US-based prediction markets and their regulatory framework.

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Pi Network (PI) Surges 40% Weekly, Bitcoin (BTC) Fights for $68K: Market Watch

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BTCUSD Feb 18. Source: TradingView


Pi Network’s native token is the top performer on a weekly scale, followed by STABLE and MORPHO.

Bitcoin’s rather underwhelming price movements around $68,000 continue as the asset slipped below that level on a couple of occasions in the past 24 hours.

WLFI has soared the most from the larger-cap alts in the past 24 hours, while significantly more modest gains from ETH have pushed the asset to just over $2,000.

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BTC Fragile at $68K

The first trading week of the current month resulted in a massive calamity for bitcoin, as the asset plunged to $60,000 for the first time since October 2024. This crash represented a $30,000 decline in the span of just over a week.

The bulls finally intervened at this point and helped BTC recover $12,000 in just a day. However, it faced immediate selling pressure at $72,000 and spent the following several days trading between that upper boundary and the lower one at $68,000.

It lost the support a week ago, but quickly reclaimed it and rocketed to over $70,000 during the weekend. However, that was another fakeout and returned to under $70,000 a day later. It slipped below $67,000 yesterday after the latest rejection, but now stands above $68,000, which is essentially the same level as this time yesterday.

Its market cap has remained calm at $1.365 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts is down to 56.2%.

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BTCUSD Feb 18. Source: TradingView
BTCUSD Feb 18. Source: TradingView

PI’s Weekly Surge

Ethereum is up by 2% in the past day and now sits above $2,000 once more. XRP has neared $1.50 after a minor increase. BNB, DOGE, BCH, and CC are also slightly in the green, while TRX and HYPE are with minor losses. WLFI has stolen the show in the past 24 hours, surging by over 17% to over $0.115.

On a weekly scale, though, Pi Network’s PI token shines. The asset is up by over 40% within this timeframe, as it dumped to a new all-time low of $0.1312 at the time. It now sits close to $0.19 after another 6% daily increase.

The total crypto market cap has added over $25 billion in a day and is up to $2.430 trillion on CG.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview Feb 18. Source: QuantifyCrypto
Cryptocurrency Market Overview Feb 18. Source: QuantifyCrypto
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Why did World Liberty Financial price rally 20%?

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World Liberty Financial price gains 20% despite muted crypto market — what's driving the surge? - 1

WLFI rallied 20% as traders positioned ahead of the World Liberty Forum and large on-chain withdrawals drew attention.

Summary

  • World Liberty Financial price surged 20% and approached the top of its weekly range.
  • Trading volume more than doubled while derivatives positioning declined.
  • Price must clear the $0.12–$0.14 zone to shift short-term structure bullish.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) was trading at $0.1178 at the time of writing, up about 20% in the past day. The token is currently close to the peak of its seven-day range, which spans from $0.09947 to $0.1183.

Even with the rally, WLFI is still down 27% over the past 30 days and sits roughly 64% below its September 2025 all-time high of $0.3313. The larger trend has been negative, but short-term momentum has picked up.

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Spot trading activity surged. Over the past 24 hours, volume reached $224 million, marking a 118% increase from the previous day. Buyers stepped in aggressively during the move higher.

In contrast, derivatives positioning softened. CoinGlass data shows futures volume slipped 0.49% to $11 million, while open interest fell 4.83% to $1.20 million. When price rises as open interest drops, the move is often driven by spot demand or short covering rather than heavy new leverage.

Forum hype and large withdrawals draw attention

Much of the excitement appears tied to the World Liberty Forum, an invitation-only event that will be hosted at Mar-a-Lago on Feb. 18.

According to reports, the event has reached capacity with around 400 attendees. Executives of prominent financial firms like Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, NYSE President Lynn Martin, Nasdaq CEO Adena Friedman, and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon are among the high-profile attendees. 

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The forum will focus on digital assets, regulation, and integration between traditional finance and crypto. The project’s political connections have increased visibility, which has fueled speculation ahead of potential announcements.

On-chain data added to the narrative. On Feb. 18, analytics platform Onchain Lens reported that 313.31 million WLFI, worth about $33.76 million, was withdrawn from Binance within 11 hours.

Exchange outflows of that size are often interpreted as tokens moving into longer-term storage, though the intent behind transfers is not always clear.

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The recent announcement of an upcoming World Swap forex and remittance platform has also attracted interest. The product targets cross-border payments, a sector with significant global demand.

World Liberty Financial price technical analysis

On the daily chart, WLFI has been in a short-term downtrend since early February. The price is trading below the 20-day moving average, and lower highs and lows are evident.

The downward slope of the moving average indicates that there has been consistent selling pressure in recent weeks. 

World Liberty Financial price gains 20% despite muted crypto market — what's driving the surge? - 1
WLFI daily chart. Credit: crypto.news

The Bollinger Bands widened during the most recent decline. Price touched the lower band near $0.086, then bounced sharply. That reaction pushed the relative strength index from below 30 to around 45–46. Momentum has improved, but RSI has not crossed above 50, so buyers have not fully taken control.

The current zone around $0.117–$0.12 acts as immediate resistance. A daily close above $0.12 would be the first technical improvement. If that level breaks with strength, price could test $0.14–$0.15, where the upper Bollinger Band and prior structure align.

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Support sits near $0.10–$0.11, with stronger backing at $0.085–$0.090. A drop below $0.085 would expose the token to a move under $0.08.

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Peter Thiel Cuts All Ties With Ethereum Treasury Firm

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Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance.

Billionaire venture capitalist and co-founder of PayPal and Palantir Technologies, Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, has fully divested from ETHZilla, a digital asset treasury firm that holds Ethereum (ETH).

The development comes as digital asset treasury firms face mounting pressure amid the broader crypto market downturn.

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Peter Thiel Cuts Ties With ETHZilla During Crypto Market Slump

The digital asset treasury wave gained momentum last year, with several companies adopting Strategy’s (formerly MicroStrategy) 2020 Bitcoin (BTC) playbook. Firms began accumulating cryptocurrencies as reserve assets, attracting heightened investor attention as prices climbed and equity valuations expanded.

BeInCrypto reported in August 2025 that through entities such as The Founders Fund, Thiel controlled a 7.5% stake in ETHZilla. However, the latest SEC filing shows that entities managed by Thiel reported zero ownership in the company by the end of 2025, indicating a complete exit.

“This matters because Thiel is considered smart institutional capital, and a full exit from an ETH treasury firm could signal shifting sentiment, risk reduction, or a strategic rotation away from Ethereum exposure,” Crypto Town Hall posted.

The move comes against the backdrop of a broader market downturn. In October, crypto markets suffered a sharp downturn, often referred to as the “10/10” or “Black Friday” crash. The subsequent months extended the decline.

According to CryptoRank data, Ethereum fell 28.4% in Q4 2025, marking its first negative fourth quarter since 2022. Although 2026 began with a brief recovery, the rebound quickly reversed.

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ETH closed January 2026 down 17.7%, and so far in February, its price has declined another 18.1%. At press time, it traded at $2,017.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance.
Ethereum (ETH) Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Treasury Strategy Under Strain as Ethereum Decline Hits Corporate Holders

The sustained price weakness has directly impacted digital asset treasury firms, reducing the value of their crypto holdings and pressuring stock prices. For example, BitMine is currently sitting on unrealized losses exceeding $7 billion. Furthermore, its share price is down 25.7% year-to-date.

ETHZilla, which previously operated as 180 Life Sciences before pivoting toward an Ethereum treasury strategy and rebranding, has faced similar headwinds. At its peak, the company held more than 100,000 ETH.

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As market conditions deteriorated in October, the company moved quickly to trim its exposure. Toward the end of that month, ETHZilla offloaded roughly $40 million in Ether, directing the proceeds toward share buybacks. 

A second round of sales followed in December, totaling about $74.5 million. The funds were allocated to repay senior secured convertible debt. CoinGecko data shows the company now holds 69,802 ETH, a substantial reduction from its previous peak position.

The company has since outlined yet another strategic shift. According to Bloomberg, ETHZilla’s wholly owned subsidiary, called ETHZilla Aerospace, is seeking to provide tokenized exposure to equity in leased jet engines.

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David Bailey’s Nakamoto strikes $107M deal to buy BTC Inc and UTXO

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David Bailey’s Nakamoto strikes $107M deal to buy BTC Inc and UTXO

Bitcoin-focused public company Nakamoto Inc., led by chairman and CEO David Bailey, has signed definitive agreements to acquire BTC Inc. and UTXO Management GP, LLC in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $107.3 million.

Summary

  • Nakamoto Inc., led by David Bailey, will acquire BTC Inc. and UTXO Management GP, LLC in a $107.3 million all-stock deal.
  • The transaction consolidates Bitcoin media, events, and asset management businesses under one publicly listed entity.
  • Nakamoto aims to build a vertically integrated Bitcoin platform spanning publishing, conferences, advisory, and investment strategy.

The deal brings together companies closely tied to Bailey, who co-founded BTC Inc. and later helped launch UTXO Management, under a single publicly listed Bitcoin-focused entity.

Under the terms of the deal, Nakamoto will issue common shares to the sellers at a pre-negotiated price of $1.12 per share. The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to customary conditions.

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The acquisition brings together media, events, and asset management businesses under a single public holding company. BTC Inc. is best known for publishing Bitcoin Magazine and organizing The Bitcoin Conference, one of the largest Bitcoin-focused gatherings globally. UTXO Management advises Bitcoin-centric investment vehicles and focuses on capital allocation across public and private markets.

Nakamoto said the combination is designed to create a vertically integrated Bitcoin platform with diversified revenue streams.

David Bailey’s expanding Bitcoin platform

The deal further consolidates businesses tied to David Bailey, Nakamoto’s chairman and CEO. Bailey co-founded BTC Inc. in 2013 and later helped launch UTXO Management.

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“Bringing BTC Inc and UTXO into Nakamoto has been a part of our vision since day one,” said David Bailey. “We intend to operate a portfolio of companies across media, asset management, and advisory services that can scale with Bitcoin’s long-term growth.

Over the past decade, he has been an active voice in the Bitcoin (BTC) industry and has served on the board of the Bitcoin Policy Institute.

Nakamoto has positioned itself as a Bitcoin-native public vehicle focused on media, advisory services, and treasury strategy. The company’s leadership has signaled interest in further expansion as institutional adoption of Bitcoin grows.

If completed, the transaction would mark a notable consolidation in the Bitcoin sector, combining publishing, large-scale events, and capital management operations within a single listed entity.

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XRP price outlook as velocity hits 1-year peak

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XRP price grinds higher as XRP Ledger stablecoin velocity hits a 1-year peak, signaling rising real payment activity behind the price action.

Summary

XRP price and market snapshot

As of Feb. 18, XRP (XRP) is trading around $1.48, with 24‑hour moves roughly flat to slightly positive (about +0.1% to +0.7% depending on venue).

Data shows XRP at $1.48 with a 24‑hour change of +0.11%, a circulating supply near 60.92 billion tokens and a market cap close to $89.96 billion. CoinMarketCap and other trackers broadly confirm a 24‑hour volume in the $2.2–$2.4 billion range and total XRP supply of roughly 100 billion.

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XRP price outlook as velocity hits 1-year peak - 1

For context, Bitcoin trades near $67,900, down about 0.8–0.9% on the day, on more than $33 billion in 24‑hour volume. Ethereum changes hands around $1,998–$2,000, up about 0.5% over the last 24 hours, with spot volume near $2.7 billion.

Velocity on XRPL: capital actually moving

Stablecoin value is accruing to the XRP Ledger, and relatively fast. Roughly $425 million in stablecoins now sit on XRPL, up 6.6% over the 30 days ending Feb. 12, with Ripple’s RLUSD accounting for about 83% of that pool. In monetary terms, that base is the ledger’s “money stock.”

The more important signal for price, however, is velocity. According to one analyst, “Stablecoin transfers rising can often be an even more informative piece of information than stablecoin supply rising, because it hints that people are actually moving money rather than just parking it.” Over the last 30 days, XRPL processed around $1.2 billion in stablecoin transfer volume, a 57.5% jump that the author calls “a huge surge in volume, to say the least.”

In macro terms, you have a growing stock ($425 million in stablecoins) turning over faster ($1.2 billion in transfers), meaning each unit of capital is circulating multiple times a month. That rising throughput supports fee burn, forces participants to hold XRP as reserve collateral, and tends to anchor speculative rallies in actual payment activity rather than pure narrative.

Implications for XRP price path

The XRP Ledger (XRPL) is getting used for what it was built to do. In other words, velocity is laying the rails before price tries to break out. Higher payments flow can attract more businesses and developers to build on the ledger, and they’ll need to buy and hold some XRP to do so, while more activity means more XRP is being used to pay transaction fees.

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Still, does this mean you should drop $2,000 into XRP today? For traders used to beta‑chasing, the message is blunt: watch the velocity and on‑chain cash flow first; the sustainable leg higher in XRP likely comes only once that fundamental usage persists through the current drawdown.

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Bitcoin price prediction as Arkham data reveals who controls BTC supply

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Bitcoin price prediction as Arkham data reveals who controls BTC supply - 1

Bitcoin price is stabilizing after a sharp correction, but on-chain data suggests the real story may lie beneath the surface.

Summary

  • Bitcoin consolidates near $68,000 after falling from the mid-$90,000s to $60,000, with the 50-day SMA around $83,000 acting as key resistance.
  • Arkham data shows heavy supply concentration, with Satoshi, major exchanges, BlackRock’s ETF, Strategy, and the U.S. government controlling a significant share of total BTC.
  • Whale inactivity and potential exchange outflows could tighten supply, meaning renewed institutional demand may trigger a sharper upside move.

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates near the $68,000 level, Arkham Intelligence’s latest ownership data reveals who controls a large share of supply and that concentration could shape the next breakout or breakdown.

Bitcoin price recently fell from the mid-$90,000 region earlier this year to a local low near $60,000 before rebounding. At press time, price action shows consolidation below the 50-day simple moving average, which sits around $83,000. That level now acts as dynamic resistance.

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Until bulls reclaim it, upside momentum remains capped.

Bitcoin price prediction as Arkham data reveals who controls BTC supply - 1
Bitcoin price analysis | Source: Crypto.News

The daily chart shows heavy selling through late January and early February. A sharp capitulation candle drove price toward $60,000, followed by a reflex bounce.

However, the Chaikin Money Flow indicator remains slightly negative at around -0.03. This suggests capital inflows are still weak. Momentum has improved, but conviction is not yet strong.

While short-term momentum remains fragile, ownership structure tells a longer-term story.

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Bitcoin whale concentration and supply control

Arkham’s 2026 data shows Bitcoin ownership remains highly concentrated. Satoshi Nakamoto’s wallets still hold roughly 1.096 million BTC, representing over 5% of total supply.

Bitcoin price prediction as Arkham data reveals who controls BTC supply - 2
Bitcoin’s largest holders | Source: Arkham

Coinbase controls close to 1 million BTC, while Binance holds more than 600,000 BTC. BlackRock’s spot ETF alone holds over 760,000 BTC. Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, controls more than 400,000 BTC. The U.S. government also holds over 300,000 BTC.

This concentration matters. Large holders reduce effective circulating supply when coins remain dormant. Satoshi’s coins have never moved. Corporate and ETF holdings also tend to be long-term allocations rather than short-term trading inventory. That structurally tightens supply during periods of demand expansion.

However, exchange balances are a different story. When large exchanges hold significant BTC reserves, liquidity remains accessible. If exchange-held Bitcoin begins declining while ETFs continue accumulating, the float could tighten quickly. In that scenario, even modest demand could trigger an outsized upside move.

What it means for Bitcoin price’s next move

Technically, Bitcoin must reclaim the 50-day SMA near $83,000 to confirm a bullish reversal. A break above that level could open a move back toward $90,000. Failure to hold $65,000 may expose $60,000 again.

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Structurally, whale dominance suggests long-term supply remains constrained. If institutional demand returns while major holders stay inactive, price pressure could build quickly.

The next decisive move will likely depend on whether capital inflows return and whether the biggest holders continue to sit tight.

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eToro Releases Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Financial Results

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Bring Your Crypto To Etoro And Earn 1% Back In Stocks

Editor’s note: In a milestone year for the company, eToro’s public results reflect a strategic pivot to a global, AI-enabled investing platform with a growing multi-asset offering. The press release below provides the official quarterly and full-year numbers, while this editorial note highlights the broader implications for users, investors, and the evolving financial landscape. As eToro expands access to markets, introduces AI-powered tools, and moves toward on-chain capabilities, readers can gauge how the platform aims to empower a new generation of investors across regions and asset classes.

Key points

  • Full-year 2025: Net Contribution up 10% to $868 million; GAAP Net Income up 12% to $216 million; Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income up 10% to $251 million; Adjusted EBITDA up 4% to $317 million; Adjusted Diluted EPS of $2.64.
  • Q4 2025: Net Contribution down 10% to $227 million; GAAP Net Income up 16% to $69 million; Non-GAAP Adjusted Net Income up 6% to $70 million; Adjusted EBITDA down 19% to $87 million; Funded Accounts rose to 3.81 million; AUA grew to $18.5 billion; cash and equivalents at $1.3 billion.
  • January 2026 KPIs show continued activity across capital markets, crypto, and money transfers, signaling ongoing platform utilization and growth momentum.
  • Strategic focus areas include AI adoption, 24/7 access for select assets, and app ecosystem expansion ahead of the eToro App Store launch.

Why this matters

eToro’s results underscore a transition to a multi-asset, digital-first investing platform that leverages AI and on-chain capabilities to broaden access, personalization, and cross-border reach. With a stronger balance sheet, diversified revenue streams, and ongoing product innovation, eToro is positioned to capture long-term growth opportunities while expanding services for retail and professional users worldwide.

What to watch next

  • Rollout of 24/7 access to select assets with plans to expand across asset classes.
  • Launch of several apps ahead of the eToro App Store, enabling investor builders to publish and share tools.
  • Ongoing share repurchase activity and potential accelerated programs as part of capital allocation strategy.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

eToro Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results

UAE, Abu Dhabi, February 17, 2026eToro Group Ltd. ( NASDAQ: ETOR ), the trading and investing platform, today announced financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 which ended December 31, 2025.

Bring Your Crypto To Etoro And Earn 1% Back In Stocks
Yoni Assia, CEO of eToro

“This was a milestone year for eToro,” said Yoni Assia, CEO of eToro. “We became a publicly traded company and significantly advanced the build-out of our global financial super-app. In 2025, we accelerated product innovation and AI adoption, expanded access to global markets, broadened and localized our offering, and strengthened eToro’s footprint around the world. We are operating at a pivotal moment for financial services. Artificial intelligence and progress towards on-chain market infrastructure are reshaping how people invest and interact with markets and eToro is uniquely positioned to capture this opportunity. Through our public APIs and suite of AI-powered tools, users and partners can build, share, and scale strategies and tools, as part of a growing ecosystem. We are launching a number of apps ahead of the roll out of the eToro App Store, bringing enhanced capabilities to our retail audience. In parallel, we are positioning eToro for a financial system that is increasingly moving on-chain. With our long-standing leadership in crypto and tokenization, we are well placed to help shape this transition. This quarter, we are introducing 24/7 access to select popular assets with plans to expand around-the-clock access across asset classes. Our focus remains on empowering users through a simple, transparent, and digital-first investing experience, while positioning eToro to serve the next generation of investors at every stage of their journey. We are uniquely positioned as both a natively crypto company and a global equities trading platform. We look forward to capturing the many long-term growth opportunities ahead for the benefit of our users, shareholders, and partners.”

Meron Shani, CFO of eToro, said: “Our fourth quarter results reflect the strength and resilience of our mult-asset business model. We delivered compelling financial performance through a combination of diversified revenue streams, healthy funded accounts growth, and disciplined financial management. Furthermore, we are off to a strong start to 2026 with our January capital markets KPIs demonstrating the ability of our platform to adapt and perform across all different market conditions, including the recent spike in commodities trading. With our strong balance sheet and a clear execution roadmap, we believe that we are well positioned to deliver accelerated growth in 2026.”

Full year 2025 Financial Highlights1

  • Net Contribution increased by 10% year over year to $868 million, compared to $788 million in 2024.
  • Net Income (GAAP) increased 12% year over year to $216 million, compared to $192 million in 2024.
  • Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) increased 10% to $251 million, compared to $228 million in 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) increased by 4% year over year to $317 million, compared to $304 million in 2024
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $2.64, compared to $2.67 in 2024.

Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights2

  • Net Contribution decreased by 10% year over year to $227 million, compared to $253 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Net Income (GAAP) increased 16% year over year to $69 million, compared to $59 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Adjusted Net Income (Non-GAAP) increased 6% year over year to $70 million, compared to $67 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP) decreased by 19% year over year to $87 million, compared to $108 million in the fourth quarter of 2024
  • Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $0.71, compared to $0.79 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Funded Accounts increased 9% year over year to 3.81 million compared to 3.48 million in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Assets Under Administration (AUA) grew by 11% year over year to $18.5 billion, compared to $16.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024.
  • Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments were $1.3 billion as of December 31, 2025.

January KPI metrics3

eToro also reported the below selected monthly business metrics for January 2026:

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  • Assets under Administration (AUA) were $18.4 billion, up 2% year-over-year.
  • Funded accounts were 3.85 million, up 9% year-over-year.
  • Capital Markets/ECC Activity
    • Total number of trades for January was 74 million, up 55% year-over-year;
    • Invested amount per trade for January was $252, up 8% year-over-year;
  • Crypto Activity
    • Total number of trades for January was 4 million, down 50% year-over-year;
    • Invested amount per trade for January was $182, down 34% year-over-year;
  • Interest Earning Assets for January was $7.7 billion, up 17% year-over-year.
  • Total Money Transfers for January was $1.8 billion, up 68% year-over-year.

Business Highlights

eToro is demonstrating strong progress across its four product pillars driven by continued product innovation, localization, and strategic partnerships.

  • Trading: eToro expanded access to global markets while advancing toward always-on trading. With the addition of equities listed on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and across the Nordics, eToro now offers access to equities from 25 stock exchanges. The Company grew its crypto offering to more than 150 cryptoassets, including an expanded range of more than 100 cryptoassets for US users. eToro also broadened derivatives access, expanding its futures offering across Europe and launching futures and options in the UK. It has also begun the roll out of stock margin trading, where eligible users can access leveraged exposure to U.S. equities. In 2025, eToro expanded 24/5 trading to all S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 stocks, and in Q1, the Company is introducing 24/7 access to a select number of popular assets with plans to expand this across asset classes.
  • Investing: eToro strengthened its investing proposition by expanding access to intelligent, long-term investment solutions. The Company launched Tori, its AI Analyst, and through its public APIs and suite of AI-powered tools, users and partners can build, share, and scale strategies and tools, creating a growing ecosystem. This quarter, eToro is introducing a number of apps ahead of the launch of the eToro App Store, where ‘investor builders’ and partners can publish and share their apps with millions of eToro users globally. eToro continued to expand its range of Smart Portfolios including launching portfolios with Franklin Templeton, WisdomTree, ARK Invest and Amundi. The launch of Alpha Portfolios provides retail investors with access to quantitative, data driven strategies leveraging eToro’s data for the benefit of our customers. Having pioneered social investing, users can follow, copy, and engage with over 5,000 members of eToro’s Pro Investor Program, with Copy Trading now also launched in the US. During 2025, eToro introduced securities lending in the UK, Europe and the UAE, as well as expanding its staking program to help users access passive yield generating opportunities. eToro launched the eToro Club Subscription providing access to premium investing tools, financial perks and dedicated support.
  • Wealth Management: eToro continued to scale its long-term savings solutions in 2025. The Company partnered with Generali to provide French users with access to long-term, tax advantaged retirement (PER) and life insurance products. eToro also expanded its ISA offering in the UK with the addition of a self-directed stocks and shares ISA and a cash ISA. The AuA in eToro’s UK ISA products grew by 7x from Q4 2024 to Q4 2025. Assets under administration in our Australian savings products grew 44% between 2023 and 2025, supported by strong momentum following the launch of our superannuation offering.
  • Neo-Banking: During 2025, eToro accelerated the localization of its money management experience. The expansion of local bank accounts to more countries and the continued roll out of the debit card across Europe resulted in eToro Money’s transaction volume increasing 6.5x year-over-year. eToro Money ended the year with 1.87 million accounts. eToro Money, including eToro’s crypto wallet, is now fully integrated into the eToro app and provides seamless crypto transfers including 1% stock-back rewards on eligible crypto transfers.
  • Partnerships: eToro announced a multi-year partnership with BWT Alpine Formula 1 extending the business’ global brand presence and engagement with a fast-growing, international audience. eToro also entered into a partnership with Gemini Space Station Inc to support the migration of their customers from the UK, Europe and Australia onto the eToro platform, reinforcing its position as a leading, global, multi-asset broker.

Share Repurchase Program
eToro today announced that its Board of Directors has approved a $100 million increase to its existing share repurchase program. The program previously authorized $150 million, of which $100 million has already been used, leaving $50 million remaining. Following the increase, total remaining authorization is $150 million. Such repurchases may be made through a variety of methods, including through open market transactions (including through Rule 10b5-1 plans), privately negotiated transactions, block trades and by way of an accelerated share repurchase program. Additionally, subject to market and other conditions, the Company intends to enter into an Accelerated Share Repurchase (“ASR”) agreement to repurchase approximately $50 million of its common shares under the new authorization. This authorization reflects the Company’s confidence in its long-term strategy and growth prospects, financial strength, and commitment to deliver shareholder value. eToro believes that its current share price does not fully reflect the Company’s fundamental value, and that repurchasing shares represents a prudent allocation of capital. The program also provides additional flexibility to support potential future strategic initiatives, including mergers and acquisitions, where eToro shares could serve as an effective transaction currency. The actual timing, number, manner and value of any shares repurchased will depend on several factors, including the market price of our shares, general market and economic conditions, our liquidity requirements, applicable legal requirements and other business considerations. The authorization does not expire.

About eToro

eToro is the trading and investing platform that empowers you to invest, share and learn. We were founded in 2007 with the vision of a world where everyone can trade and invest in a simple and transparent way. Today we have 40 million registered users from 75 countries. We believe there is power in shared knowledge and that we can become more successful by investing together. So we’ve created a collaborative investment community designed to provide you with the tools you need to grow your knowledge and wealth. On eToro, you can hold a range of traditional and innovative assets and choose how you invest: trade directly, invest in a portfolio, or copy other investors. You can visit our media center here for our latest news.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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