Nigel Farage aide George Cottrell bets US war will last four more months

Nigel Farage aide George Cottrell is betting $41,000 that the US war with Iran will last for another four months, despite Reform UK calling for an end to the conflict. 

When Israel and the US attacked Iran in February, Farage criticised UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not allowing the US access to its military bases.   

Reform maintained its position that the US-led war should be backed by the UK before the party u-turned this week. 

Indeed, Reform politician Robert Jenrick called for the war to end “as soon as possible” because of its potential negative impact on the UK economy. 

Farage added today that the UK should stay out of the war, but only because of perceived shortcomings in the country’s defensive capabilities following a drone attack in Cyprus. 

However, despite this change in direction from the party, Cottrell was betting between March 7 and 9 that a ceasefire between the US and Iran wouldn’t happen before June 30, 2026. 

Read more: Reform UK insider George Cottrell tied to Trump Polymarket bets worth millions

The Polymarket bet stands to win $123,000 if the US keeps up its war against Iran for another four months. The bet’s market, however, doesn’t seem to agree, and his wager faces a current unrealised loss of -$6,240.

Nigel Farage says Cottrell ‘is like a son to me’

Cottrell, who has reportedly been Farage’s “right-hand man” for years, was convicted of wire fraud in March 2017 after he was caught agreeing to launder drug trafficking proceeds. 

The financier lived in Montenegro, where he was accused of illegal political financing and was investigated over a crypto ATM’s usage. An avid gambler, he reportedly lost €20 million ($23 million) in a single poker game while in the country.

However, Cottrell’s recent Polymarket bets, including on Starmer’s departure, US strikes against Iran, and the vote share of New York’s newly elected mayor, Zohran Mamdani, have lost over $800,000.

Read more: Nigel Farage milkshake’d while touring with shady crypto ally

Despite this, his losses pale in comparison to his previous $13.2 million win on Donald Trump’s election in 2024. 

Crypto billionaire funded Farage’s Trump lobbying efforts

Cottrell is just one strand in Farage’s web of crypto connections, which now includes the UK’s former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and his bitcoin holdings firm, in which Farage just invested £215,000 ($289,000).

One of Reform’s biggest backers is Tether shareholder Christopher Harborne. Last week, he took his donations to Farage’s Reform UK to over £22 million ($29.6 million). 

The Guardian has also linked Harborne to a private jet that was used to fly Farage to the Chagos Islands in late February.  

Read more: Tether shareholder was Boris Johnson’s advisor in Ukraine, report

The trip was meant to reinforce Reform’s position against the UK government’s deal to transfer sovereignty of the island to Mauritius while cotinuing to lease a military base there for another 99 years. 

Farage was flown to the Maldives but failed to reach the Chagos Islands after the UK military turned him away. He then attempted to talk with Trump about the deal at his Mar-a-Lago mansion last week.

However, the two never actually met.

Beyond Harborne’s investments in Tether, he’s also the largest shareholder of military firm QinetQ.

QinetQ’s US arm has secured multiple US Army contracts over the last year. It was awarded part of a $4 billion contract for military surveillance systems, given $41 million to develop counter-drone technology, and contracted to develop new target acquisition systems.

The firm also secured million-pound contracts from the UK under Boris Johnson’s government.

Despite the contracts, earlier this year, Reuters reported that the firm is restructuring its US division due to “operational and profitability challenges stemming from geopolitical uncertainty and shifting procurement cycles.”

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