Nikkei 225 Retreats From Record High

As the chart shows, the Nikkei 225 index (Japan 225 on FXOpen) reached a historic high near 58,500 points on Monday. Bullish sentiment was driven primarily by political developments.

According to media reports, the rally followed the decisive victory of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) under Sanae Takaichi, who has signalled aggressive fiscal stimulus measures (a package exceeding $135 bn), food tax cuts, and the continuation of an accommodative monetary policy stance.

However, today the Nikkei 225 is showing signs of a pullback. It is possible that major market participants have begun taking profits amid the wave of optimism, as Takaichi’s victory had already been largely priced in, and official confirmation of a parliamentary supermajority may have acted as a trigger to close long positions.

From a technical perspective, a retracement also appears justified.

Technical Analysis of the Nikkei 225 Chart

It is worth noting that:

→ after the RSI moved into extreme overbought territory, it formed a bearish divergence with price;
→ price action itself produced a bearish triple top pattern.

As the decline unfolds, a local trendline (shown in purple) has shifted from acting as support to functioning as resistance.

In light of the above, it is reasonable to assume that an extended pullback could drive the Nikkei 225 towards the median of the long-term ascending channel.

In the event of a deeper correction, the support zone below the 56,000 level may come into play, where a previous bullish imbalance formed characteristics of a Fair Value Gap pattern.

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