Major prediction market platform Kalshi has seen its US web traffic explode over the past year, underscoring the platform’s rapid growth while regulators and courts scrutinize its expanding event-contract business.

Kalshi recorded 15.4 million visits from the United States in July, up about 1,520% from just under 1 million in August 2025, according to Similarweb traffic estimates reviewed by Cointelegraph on Friday.

US traffic accounted for nearly 80% of Kalshi’s traffic in July, up from 72.8% in August 2025, showing that its growth has remained heavily concentrated in the country.

The surge comes as Kalshi faces mounting legal challenges over whether its sports contracts fall under federal oversight or state gambling laws, with New Jersey taking the dispute to the US Supreme Court.

Trading volume outpaces traffic growth

Kalshi’s surge in web traffic has come alongside even faster growth in trading activity, as prediction markets have expanded rapidly over the past year.

Kalshi recorded about $40 billion in monthly notional trading volume in August, up from $874 million a year earlier, an increase of roughly 4,500%, according to a Dune Analytics prediction market data dashboard.

Source: Dune Analytics

Across the prediction-market industry, monthly notional volume rose to $50.7 billion from about $2 billion over the same period, with Kalshi accounting for nearly 79% of the latest total.

Related: Michigan authorities continue pursuit to block Kalshi as Supreme Court fight looms

Sports contracts accounted for 83% of Kalshi’s trading volume in July, Barron’s reported Thursday.

Kalshi draws growing traffic from restricted jurisdictions

Canada generated about 450,000 visits to Kalshi’s website in July, up from roughly 50,000 in August 2025, while UK traffic increased to 296,000 from 31,000.

Both Canada and the UK are among the jurisdictions where Kalshi’s member agreement currently prohibits users from directly accessing or trading on Kalshi’s platform. Kalshi partnered with Canadian financial services company Wealthsimple in June to provide access to nearly 4,000 eligible Kalshi contracts through a separate app.

Kalshi website traffic by country in July 2026 and August 2025. Source: Similarweb

From August 2025 to July 2026, Canada’s share of Kalshi’s traffic slipped to 2.3% from 3.8%, while the UK’s share fell to 1.5% from 2.4%, even as visits from both countries increased.

Cointelegraph contacted Kalshi for comment on the traffic from restricted jurisdictions but had not received a response by publication.

Magazine: BTC will hit $1M by 2030… but Arthur Hayes is buying ETH instead

Ethereum price rebounded nearly 6% from its 24-hour low to trade near $2,524 on Sept. 4, but the recovery has brought ETH back to a resistance zone that has rejected several breakout attempts.

Ethereum price rebounds toward $2,550

According to data from crypto.news, Ethereum (ETH) price was trading around $2,524 at the time of writing, up approximately 5.7% over the previous 24 hours. The rebound followed a fall to roughly $2,370, leaving ETH about 6.5% above its intraday low.

The recovery coincided with a broader crypto rally that lifted Bitcoin above $81,000. US markets also moved higher after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he could support keeping interest rates unchanged if inflation continued to ease.

Waller’s comments reduced expectations for a rate increase at the Fed’s Sept. 15–16 meeting. Treasury yields and the US dollar declined as traders adjusted their interest-rate positions.

Weak US employment data added to the shift. The ADP National Employment Report showed private employers created 38,000 jobs in August, below economists’ estimate of about 47,000. The reading gave rate-sensitive assets further room to recover before the official US employment report.

Despite the rebound, ETH has not confirmed a breakout. The price reached an intraday high of approximately $2,547 before returning below $2,550, leaving the same resistance that stopped earlier advances intact.

Whale transfers add supply risk

Blockchain tracker Lookonchain reported that one large holder received 167,855 ETH, then began transferring the tokens toward centralized exchanges.

The wallet deposited 70,739 ETH, worth approximately $174 million at the time, into several exchanges over two days. It still held 97,115 ETH, valued at nearly $237 million, when the activity was reported.

Exchange deposits can precede sales, but transfers alone do not prove that every token was sold. The remaining balance also means that reports that the holder fully liquidated the entire 167,855 ETH position are not supported by the available on-chain data.

The transfers nevertheless created a potential source of market supply as ETH struggled around $2,550. Continued deposits could pressure the recovery, particularly if the price loses its short-term support levels.

US spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds have provided another source of demand. The products recorded $141.39 million in net inflows on Sep. 3, according to data attributed to SoSoValue.

Technical indicators favor buyers below resistance

The 4-hour ETH/USDT chart shows the price trading at $2,523.79, close to the Bollinger Band’s upper boundary at $2,544.17. The middle band, which tracks the 20-period simple moving average, stands at $2,444.67.

Ethereum’s 4-hour relative strength index has risen to 66.87, while its RSI moving average sits at 50.18. Momentum therefore favors buyers, but the indicator is approaching the 70 level commonly associated with overbought conditions.

A close above the upper Bollinger Band and $2,550 would strengthen the breakout case. The next visible resistance zones would sit near $2,600 and $2,700 before the psychological $3,000 mark.

Failure at $2,550 would keep $2,500 as the first level to watch. Below it, the Bollinger Band midpoint near $2,445 could serve as the next support, followed by the lower band at $2,345.

The daily chart offers a stronger medium-term signal. ETH remains above its Supertrend line at $2,223.45, while Chaikin Money Flow stands at 0.24. A positive CMF reading indicates that buying pressure has exceeded selling pressure over the indicator’s measurement period.

Losing $2,445 would weaken the short-term recovery without ending the broader daily uptrend. A move below $2,345 would place the recent low near $2,370 and the wider $2,300 support area at risk.

Liquidation map puts $2,550 in focus

The 24-hour CoinGlass liquidation heatmap shows one of the nearest overhead liquidity concentrations between approximately $2,535 and $2,550. A move through that band could force leveraged short positions to close, adding buying pressure to a confirmed breakout.

The strongest nearby downside concentration appears around $2,485–$2,490. Additional liquidation bands are visible near $2,460 and $2,400.

The map therefore places ETH between two close pools of leveraged exposure. A break above $2,550 could trigger a short squeeze, while a fall below $2,490 could accelerate a move toward $2,460.

CoinGlass reported approximately $115 million in ETH futures liquidations over the previous 24 hours. Open interest stood near $34.23 billion, showing that a large amount of leveraged positioning remained in the market after the recovery.

Analysts see $3,000 after a confirmed breakout

Analyst Ted Pillows said ETH had tested $2,550 and faced another rejection. He argued that a weekly close above the level could allow Ethereum to move quickly toward $3,000.

Market commentator Lucky also described $3,000 as a possible longer-term target, pointing to a breakout from a descending channel and a successful retest visible on his chart. His projection called for a potential 56% advance, although the forecast depends on ETH retaining its reclaimed trend structure.

Neither target is confirmed while Ethereum remains below $2,550. The immediate test is whether buyers can absorb selling around that level without allowing the price to fall beneath $2,490 and the 4-hour Bollinger midpoint.

For US traders, the official August jobs report and next week’s inflation readings could determine whether falling Treasury yields continue to support ETH. Stronger-than-expected data or renewed inflation pressure could restore rate-hike expectations and challenge the rebound.

South Korea’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) has laid out a three-phase plan to build the legal and technical groundwork for issuing tokenized securities—an effort that, if executed on schedule, would clarify how onchain securities could fit within the country’s existing capital markets framework.

In a press release issued Friday, the FSC said tokenized securities are expected to gain formal legal recognition starting Feb. 4, 2027, following an update to the Act on Electronic Registration of Stocks and Bonds. The initiative also points toward a later phase connecting tokenized issuance and payments with stablecoins.

Key takeaways

• The FSC plans to recognize tokenized securities legally from Feb. 4, 2027 via amendments to the Act on Electronic Registration of Stocks and Bonds.
• Phase one covers legal recognition for tokenized versions of selected instruments, including certain funds and bonds, along with unlisted stocks and fractional investment securities.
• Phase two would broaden tokenization to apply to all publicly offered securities.
• Phase three targets onchain payment flows linked to stablecoins, indicating regulators see stablecoins as part of the settlement picture.
• Before launching the roadmap, the FSC intends to collaborate with the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) on the necessary tokenization infrastructure.

A date-specific shift toward legal recognition

Until now, tokenized securities have faced regulatory uncertainty in many jurisdictions—typically tied to questions about legal status, transfer mechanisms, and settlement. South Korea’s plan attempts to remove at least one major friction point by tying recognition of tokenized securities to a concrete legislative timetable.

The FSC said that beginning Feb. 4, 2027, tokenized securities would be recognized as digitized forms of securities after the scheduled update to the Act on Electronic Registration of Stocks and Bonds takes effect. This is intended to align the tokenized form with the legal infrastructure already used for registering and handling stocks and bonds electronically.

The roadmap is described as part of the implementation of amended versions of the Capital Markets Act and the Electronic Securities Act, which the FSC framed as the country’s first tokenized securities framework.

What the three phases cover

The FSC’s approach is staged, moving from recognition of specific instruments to broader application and then toward a more integrated onchain settlement model.

Phase one focuses on bringing tokenized securities into the regulatory and legal fold for a limited set of products. According to the FSC, legal recognition would apply to tokenized securities that include:

• institutional money market funds
• bonds
• unlisted stocks
• fractional investment securities

Phase two would expand tokenization to all publicly offered securities. For market participants, this sequencing matters: it suggests that issuers and intermediaries will be expected to adapt operational and compliance processes first for a controlled set of instruments, before the rulebook potentially broadens to cover a wider universe of public offerings.

Phase three is the most ambitious and forward-looking. The FSC said it aims to enable onchain payments connected to stablecoins. While the announcement stops short of detailing technical standards or regulatory limits for stablecoins in this context, the fact that stablecoin-linked payments are included in the final phase indicates regulators are thinking beyond token issuance alone and toward settlement and custody-to-payment workflows.

Rulemaking steps and the role of market infrastructure

Alongside the legislative timeline, the FSC laid out additional near-term administrative work. It said it plans to propose revisions to relevant subordinate regulations by the end of September—a step that typically determines how the law will function in practice, including the operational rules that govern issuance, transfer, and compliance.

Importantly, the FSC also indicated it would decide the timetable for phase two and phase three after the subordinate revisions are prepared, meaning that the later phases are not fully locked in by the Feb. 4, 2027 recognition date.

Before the roadmap begins, the FSC said it would work with the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to develop the tokenization infrastructure required for the framework. For investors and firms, that matters because successful tokenization depends heavily on the readiness of core market plumbing—interfaces with registries, confirmation of ownership records, and the ability to reconcile onchain activity with established capital markets processes.

Why the roadmap signals a tightening regulatory stance

This announcement comes as South Korean regulators have been steadily moving closer to a defined regime for tokenized assets. Earlier, the FSC had indicated that it would publish detailed tokenized securities rules to bring them under the country’s capital markets framework in 2027, according to reporting on the FSC’s prior stance.

In addition, South Korea has been experimenting with tokenized settlement concepts outside of securities issuance. In April, the Ministry of Economy and Finance announced a pilot project using tokenized deposits for executing government operational spending, with a full rollout planned for the fourth quarter of 2026. That effort is separate from the FSC’s tokenized securities framework, but it reinforces the broader regulatory direction: using tokenization not only for trading or issuance, but potentially for real-world payments and operational transfers.

Viewed together, the FSC’s roadmap suggests South Korea is trying to reconcile two priorities that often clash in tokenization discussions: preserving the legal certainty of traditional capital markets while making room for blockchain-based representation and, eventually, onchain payment rails.

At the same time, the phased nature of the plan leaves practical questions open. The biggest uncertainty for market participants is likely how quickly phase two and phase three will move after the subordinate regulations are drafted, and what technical and compliance requirements will accompany stablecoin-linked onchain payments.

For readers watching this space, the next signals to track are the FSC’s subordinate regulation revisions due by the end of September and the details that emerge from its coordination with the KSD—especially anything clarifying how settlement, custody records, and stablecoin-linked payment flows will be handled under the updated legal framework.

The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia’s Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock’s board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.

Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered exactly what all five major New Zealand bank economists expected on Wednesday: a 25bp hike to 2.75%, the second consecutive increase after July’s tightening move. Headline inflation remains elevated at 4.1%, though the central bank’s own projections signal a likely pause in October before potentially resuming in December, leaving markets pricing roughly a 30% chance of another hike this year.

The result: two central banks now both firmly in tightening mode, though the RBA’s path still carries more near-term uncertainty than the RBNZ’s, whose next move already looks broadly telegraphed through year-end.

Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD

As the AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair staged a sharp rally from the 1.19633 low, riding a steep ascending trendline that has powered the entire late-August advance. That rally has since run into resistance near the 1.22897 high, the 0 Fibonacci level, where price is now consolidating just above the 0.236 retracement near 1.22127, caught between a shorter-term descending trendline from this week’s peak and the broader medium-term descending trendline that has capped the pair since late June.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the 0.236 retracement and the ascending trendline while breaking above the short-term descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 1.22897 high. A confirmed break above that level would mark a genuine shift in the broader multi-month structure.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the 0.236 level and the steep ascending trendline would expose the intermediate 1.213–1.215 support zone, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A deeper slide below that zone would risk a fuller retracement of the late-August rally, back towards the 0.618–0.786 area near 1.203–1.209.

With price squeezed between a reclaimed short-term trendline, a defended ascending trendline, and the long-term descending trendline, AUD/NZD looks poised for a decisive move. Will the RBA’s hawkish momentum push the pair through resistance, or will the broader downtrend since June reassert control?

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Adam Aron, the CEO of AMC Entertainment Holdings, criticized Robinhood’s tokenized stock offerings that provide economic exposure to AMC shares, stating the company has no affiliation and that it will have a securities counsel investigate the matter.

Robinhood’s stock tokens are not registered under US securities laws and are an “outrageous” offering with no affiliation to AMC, Aron wrote in a Friday X post, adding that the company will request an investigation from its outside securities counsel.

Aron added that these stocks may not be offered to US investors and that they are subject to restrictions in several other jurisdictions, including Canada, Switzerland and the UK.

The remarks come as the latest criticism targeting tokenized stocks, which are blockchain-based shares tracking the price of traditional company shares. Tokenized stock recently came under scrutiny when some crypto exchanges canceled their SpaceX IPO allocations earlier in June.

Platforms including Bybit, Binance, Bitget Wallet and MEXC canceled their tokenized SpaceX IPO campaigns as SpaceX went public on the Nasdaq, with several blaming Kraken-owned xStocks’ inability to deliver the underlying assets.  

Related: VARA, Securitize sign MoU for tokenization innovation in Dubai

Robinhood launches tokenization initiatives

Robinhood co-founder and CEO, Vlad Tenev, responded to the criticism on X by asking Aron to share his exact concerns tied to the tokenized offering. The platform did not issue a public statement.

Cointelegraph has approached Robinhood for comment on the remarks and the regulatory status of its tokenized stock offerings.

The first generation of Robinhood stock tokens launched in July 2026 as tokenized debt securities issued by Jersey-based Robinhood Assets as ERC-20 tokens, providing economic exposure to underlying assets such as US stocks and exchange-traded funds.

In February, Robinhood launched a public testnet for Robinhood Chain, its Ethereum layer‑2 network built using Arbitrum technology to host tokenized assets.

In October 2025, Robinhood shared plans to tokenize nearly 500 US stocks and ETFs on Arbitrum, as part of its push into tokenized assets.

In July 2026, Bernstein analysts raised their price target on Robinhood Markets, predicting that the platform’s next phase of growth will be driven by tokenized equities and prediction markets, rather than traditional crypto trading.

Magazine: How Hong Kong is turning tokenized bonds into real market infrastructure