Bitcoin is still stuck in a broader bearish structure, but the latest bounce shows buyers are trying to keep the recent recovery alive above the key $60k area. Even so, the bigger trend remains fragile, with BTC still trading below major resistance levels on the higher timeframes.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily chart, BTC remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which keeps the broader bias tilted to the downside. The price is also still trading inside the descending channel, indicating that the market has not yet confirmed a proper trend reversal.

The main support zone remains around $60k to $61k, which has already produced a reaction earlier in February. On the upside, the first major resistance sits around $75k to $80k. As long as BTC stays below that region, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective rather than impulsive.

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin continues to move inside a large flag pattern, suggesting that the recent advance is still a recovery structure. The asset is now hovering around $69,000 after once again failing to sustain a break above the upper boundary of the pattern near the $73,000 area.

Momentum is neutral for now, with RSI recovering from weaker levels but still not showing a decisive breakout. If buyers defend the $64k to $65k area, which coincides with the lower trendline of the flag, another push toward channel resistance remains possible. A breakdown below the lower boundary, however, could send BTC back toward the $60,000 zone, and potentially lower in the coming weeks.

On-Chain Analysis

From an on-chain perspective, the 30-day exponential moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio has surged sharply, which usually signals that large holders have become more active in sending coins to exchanges recently. That tends to be a warning sign, as elevated whale inflows often increase the probability of sell-side pressure.

So while price is trying to stabilize in the short term, the on-chain backdrop remains cautious. In other words, the chart structure may still allow for a recovery bounce, but the rise in whale activity suggests that upside could remain capped unless this metric starts cooling off again.

The crypto market remains in a bear market, with Bitcoin and most altcoins falling by double digits from the all-time high.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is stuck at $67,000, down substantially from the all-time high of $126,300. The Ethereum (ETH) token has dropped to $2,000 from the all-time high of nearly $5,000.

The market capitalization of all tokens has dropped from the all-time high of $4.3 trillion to the current $2.34 trillion.

Still, two main catalysts may trigger the next crypto market rally. First, data shows that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the fear zone of 21.

In most cases, crypto prices often bounce back whenever this gauge is in the fear zone, as we experienced last year when it dropped to 10 after Trump announced new tariffs.

Crypto market rally to start when Trump capitulates

The other potential catalyst that may trigger a crypto market rally is that Donald Trump may capitulate on his war in Iran.

This capitulation will happen if the stock market continues falling and crude oil prices keep soaring.

Data shows that the Dow Jones Index has dropped by over 7% from its all-time high, and futures point to a 580-point drop.

Similarly, the S&P 500 Index has dropped by 4.9%, while the Nasdaq 100 has dropped by over 5% from its all-time highs.

Trump always pays close attention to the stock market, which he believes is a good gauge for his performance.

Therefore, if the stock market continues falling, he will likely capitulate and hint towards talks or ending the war.

He may also hint at completing his mission of killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, dismantling Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. 

Trump may also capitulate because of the soaring crude oil prices, with Brent and West Texas Intermediate rising above the key support level at $100. Higher oil prices will push inflation higher this year and make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

An end to the war will be bullish for the crypto market as we experienced on Wednesday last week when the New York Times reported that Iran had reached out to the United States for talks. Bitcoin and most altcoins jumped after that report and then pulled back after Iran disputed it.

KAST, a stablecoin-powered financial platform focused on cross-border payments, raised $80 million in Series A funding led by QED Investors and Left Lane Capital, the company announced on Monday.

The company said it plans to use the funding to expand its product, invest in licensing and compliance and grow its team. KAST is building a platform that helps people and businesses move money across borders using stablecoins, allowing users to earn income globally, hold funds digitally, and spend locally through a single system.

Stablecoin activity has surged in recent years, with more than $35 trillion in transactions last year. However, only about 1% represented real-world payments such as remittances or payroll, according to McKinsey and Artemis Analytics, leaving significant room for new payment platforms to grow.

Peak XV Partners, HSG, and DST Global Partners also joined the early-stage funding round, which valued the company at $600 million, according to sources cited by Bloomberg.

In its press release, the company said it has reached more than 1 million users and processes about $5 billion in annualized transaction volume since launching 18 months ago. Revenue has doubled since the end of September 2025, it added.

KAST connects digital dollars with local payout systems in supported markets. The platform aims to reduce the time, cost and number of steps involved in sending money across borders.

“The latest funding reflects the confidence of leading investors in the stablecoin thesis and in KAST’s ability to execute it at global scale,” said Raagulan Pathy, founder and CEO of KAST.

KAST plans to expand across North America, Latin America and the Middle East. The company also plans to roll out KAST Business for payouts, payroll and cross-border spending.

“Stablecoin technology holds the potential to reshape the future of finance. We are thrilled to lead this round at KAST,” said Nigel Morris, co-founder and managing partner at QED Investors.

Bitcoin price has slipped below $70,000 as oil prices surge more than 60% this year amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, adding macro pressure to risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $69,984 at press time, down 3.8% over the past 24 hours as risk sentiment across financial markets softened. The pullback comes after a volatile week. 

Despite the recent drop, Bitcoin is still up roughly 7.8% for the week and has fluctuated between $63,176 and $73,669 over the last seven days. However, the cryptocurrency is still trading about 44% below its all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025. 

The most recent price fluctuations have increased activity in the derivatives market. Open interest rose 1.24% to $44.39 billion, while trading volume increased 57.9% to $67.26 billion, according to CoinGlass data.

The rise indicates that as global market uncertainty increases, traders are actively re-positioning their portfolios.

Oil surge raises macro pressure

A report published on March 9 by CryptoQuant analysts points to rising geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz as a potential headwind for Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Due to growing worries about supply disruptions, oil prices have risen by more than 60% since the beginning of the year. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital part of the world’s energy markets, accounting for about 20% of daily oil exports and nearly 35% of oil transported by sea.

If this restricted shipping route is disrupted, energy costs could increase significantly. An increase in oil prices, according to analysts, could worsen inflation and put pressure on financial markets, which are already susceptible to supply disruptions.

This kind of macro-environment has historically been difficult for Bitcoin. Sharp increases in oil prices often coincide with later stages of market cycles, when risk appetite starts to decline. Exposure to speculative assets like cryptocurrencies may be discouraged by increased geopolitical tension.

Volatility signals market re-positioning

Bitcoin’s volatility structure has changed noticeably in recent months, according to a separate analysis using data from the Binance BTC Volatility & Range Engine. There have been significant short-term fluctuations.

After rising above 1.5 in February before declining once more, the 7-day volatility measure was recently close to 0.72. These kinds of abrupt spikes typically occur during times of market stress and are frequently connected to significant portfolio adjustments or derivatives liquidations.

Longer-term volatility, however, has stayed relatively stable. The 30-day volatility sits around 0.50, while the 90-day measure is close to 0.57. This suggests that although short-term price swings have increased, the overall market structure has not entered an extreme volatility phase.

The Average True Range indicator currently stands near 0.054, pointing to a moderate trading range compared with past periods of intense market activity.

Taken together, the data suggest Bitcoin is going through a repositioning phase after its earlier rally. Buyers and sellers are still competing for control in the short term, which explains the recent spikes in volatility.

At the same time, longer-term volatility remains contained, indicating that the market has not yet entered a full panic or euphoria phase.

Tech investor Imran Khan says cryptocurrency does not play a meaningful role in his AI investment strategy, arguing the asset class operates on a fundamentally different thesis than the AI-driven productivity boom.

Despite the growing narrative that AI and crypto will converge, Khan said he largely views them as separate investment themes.

“Crypto is a different animal,” he said in an interview. “When it comes to AI, you are investing for productivity and economic growth.” That difference means crypto rarely fits the framework his firm uses, which focuses on businesses that benefit from structural technology shifts.

Khan is the founder and chair of the investment committee at Proem Asset Management, a technology-focused investment firm, with $450 million in assets under management. Before launching Proem, he served as chief strategy officer at Snap (formerly Snapchat), helping lead the company to its public listing, and previously ran global internet investment banking at Credit Suisse, where he worked on major deals including Alibaba’s record-breaking IPO.

However, he isn’t anti-crypto.

While direct token exposure has not typically fit within the firm’s investment thesis, which focuses on fundamental private equity, Proem held positions in Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), as well as bitcoin miner Iren (IREN) and spot bitcoin through the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), according to its latest 13F filing. Those positions are not part of the firm’s AI strategy, but rather a part of its broader focus on the tech sector, Khan said.

Crypto and AI intersection

While Khan argues that the two industries are completely different, some investors argue that an intersection of AI and crypto makes sense because both rely on decentralized computing networks and data infrastructure.

The argument is that blockchains can provide payment rails and coordination systems for AI services that operate across the internet without a central owner. In fact, last month, Citrini Research’s report that laid out AI bubble fear and caused a brief market meltdown, mentioned that autonomous AI agents will disrupt traditional payment systems by bypassing credit card networks in favor of stablecoins.

Others say blockchain-based systems could also help track how AI models use data, verify outputs or manage digital identities for autonomous software agents.

While the idea of convergence of the two industries remains largely experimental, it has fueled a wave of startups trying to link AI development with crypto-based networks. Meanwhile, many bitcoin miners have already pivoted into the AI boom by repurposing their data centers and power infrastructure to support artificial intelligence computing

Even bitcoin could benefit from AI’s growth, NYDIG, a financial services and infrastructure firm, said. The firm’s analyst argued that if AI cuts jobs and wages, weakening consumer demand, it could force policymakers to cut rates to stabilize the economy, and adding a wave of liquidity could support the bitcoin price.

AI bubble fear

Khan’s comments come as the AI investment boom that surged after ChatGPT’s launch is beginning to show signs of strain.

Nvidia (NVDA) — the dominant supplier of chips used to train AI models — and networking and custom AI chip maker Broadcom (AVGO) are both down roughly 5% year-to-date, reflecting growing questions about the pace of returns from massive AI spending.

Meanwhile, the Citrini report that caused the AI scare outlined a hypothetical 2028 scenario in which rapid AI adoption leads to widespread white-collar job losses and a sharp drop in consumer spending.

While it is a concerning scenario, Khan is looking at the bigger picture, saying that similar fears have accompanied nearly every technological revolution.

“If you read Karl Marx, he said the same thing about machines 200 years ago,” Khan said. “Now we’re having an AI revolution that could be as big as the Industrial Revolution, and people are making the same arguments.”

He added that new technologies have historically reshaped labor markets rather than eliminating jobs entirely.

“When there is new technology, you create new kinds of jobs,” Khan said.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR), the largest Ethereum-focused treasury firm, purchased 60,976 ether (ETH) through last week, increasing the pace of accumulation as the firm bets crypto prices are nearing the end of what it calls a “mini winter.”

The latest purchase, worth some $120 million at current prices, lifted BitMine’s ETH holdings to over 4.5 million tokens, worth more than $9 billion, according to a Monday update from the company. This was the company’s largest weekly purchase in token terms in 2026 so far.

The firm has steadily added to its treasury throughout the market downturn, even as unrealized losses on its position now is estimated at around $7.8 billion, according to data from DropsTab.

Chairman Thomas Lee said the company stepped up buying from the recent weekly average of roughly 45,000 to 50,000 ETH as market signals suggest a potential bottom may be forming.

“We continue to believe that crypto prices are in the late/final stages of the ‘mini-crypto winter,’” Lee said in a statement.

“As the adage goes, nobody rings the bell at the bottom.” he said. “Therefore BitMine’s strategy is to slightly increase its pace of ETH accumulation.”

The firm said it now earns $174 million annual revenue from staking more than 3 million of its ether token holdings, which could grow to $259 million once all tokens are locked to earn a yield.

The Bitcoin network has just reached 20 million mined coins, leaving just one million Bitcoin to be mined over the next century. 

“The market is about to experience something new: A global asset with almost no new supply left,” Energy Co managing partner David Eng said in an X post on Sunday.

On average, about 450 new Bitcoins are mined each day at current rates. This rate halves roughly every four years as a result of the Bitcoin halving. With just 1 million Bitcoin supply left, the last Bitcoin is set to be mined around 2140. 

Bitcoin’s finite supply offers “predictable rules”

Bitcoin mining company Elektron Energy CEO Raphael Zagury told Cointelegraph the level of clarity around Bitcoin’s supply is “unprecedented.”

“The issuance schedule is transparent decades into the future. Humans value predictable rules, especially when it comes to money,” Zagury said.

“The one million countdown reinforces everything that’s unique about Bitcoin,” added crypto exchange Swyftx portfolio manager Tommy Rogulj. 

“It is a hard-capped, permissionless, and neutral bearer asset operating on a transparent supply curve that cannot be expanded like fiat currencies. This matters in a world that is increasingly succumbing to conflict and tech-driven uncertainty.”

In December, asset management firm Grayscale Investments said that a “digital money system with transparent, predictable, and ultimately scarce supply is a simple idea, but it has rising appeal in today’s economy due to fiat currency tail risks.”

“Non-event, no impact” on BTC’s price: Crypto exec

However, crypto analysts were not convinced the recent milestone would affect Bitcoin’s price.

“Already priced in, markets know the supply growth rate (inflation rate) of BTC with certainty, and it’s already lower than gold,” Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards told Cointelegraph. “I think it’s a non-event, no impact.”

Zagury shares a similar view to Edwards. “I don’t think the milestone alone moves price in the short term,” Zagury said, adding that “liquidity and macro still dominate.”

Related: Bitcoin drops 2% as oil prices surge on energy shortage fears

“But long term, scarcity plus predictable policy is a powerful combination. Over time, markets tend to reward systems people can trust,” he said.

Bitcoin traded at $68,670 at the time of publication, down around 19% in the past year, according to CoinMarketCap.

What happens once Bitcoin supply stops? 

One of the biggest questions among Bitcoiners is what happens once the last Bitcoin is mined in 2140, with some worried that the network’s security could suffer, as miners will no longer be incentivized by new coins. 

It is understood that at that point, Bitcoin’s model will shift to transaction fees to incentivize miners to continue securing the network, though there are some concerns that it could lead to higher transaction fees.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen