• Bitcoin stalls near $67,000 after partial recovery from all-time highs.
• On-chain data shows half of BTC is held at a loss, hinting at market fatigue.
• Analyst warns deeper correction possible, with bottom around $45,000.

Bitcoin’s recent recovery attempt has stalled just below $70,000, with the cryptocurrency slipping back to around $67,250 at press time.

The drop comes as the broader crypto market struggles to maintain upward momentum following a few months of volatility.

After reaching an all-time high of $126,080 in October 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has now retraced nearly half of its value.

All eyes are now on the cryptocurrency as it appears to consolidate around $67,000 after the steep drawdown.

Analyst Willy Woo warns of further downside

Renowned on-chain analyst Willy Woo has predicted a significant price correction following the recent bounce.

He estimates that the bear market bottom could be around $45,000, with more extreme scenarios potentially testing $30,000 or even lower.

Woo’s caution stems from declining liquidity across spot and derivatives markets, which historically reduces the strength of rallies.

He suggests that Bitcoin may briefly climb to the mid-$70,000 range before facing renewed downward pressure.

On-chain signals hint at market fatigue

On-chain metrics suggest that Bitcoin may be entering the later stages of a bear market cycle rather than the early phase.

Roughly half of all circulating BTC, nearly 9.2 million coins, are currently held at a loss, according to the latest weekly report by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode.

Historically, such levels indicate significant selling pressure and potential capitulation, yet the pace of accumulation by long-term holders hints at a market beginning to stabilise.

Some analysts view these patterns as signs that bitcoin’s price may be closer to a bottom than the start of a prolonged decline.

The balance between holders in profit and those in loss is an important measure of market sentiment, and it shows that while short-term volatility remains high, there is underlying support at current levels.

Bitcoin ETF inflows show cautious optimism

Institutional investors have recently stepped back into the market, with Bitcoin ETFs recording over $1 billion in net inflows over a few days.

This trend follows a period of withdrawals totalling nearly $3 billion, signalling that some investors see the current price as a buying opportunity.

Spot ETFs, in particular, are attracting attention from long-term investors looking for regulated exposure to Bitcoin.

The renewed interest demonstrates that, despite the pullback from all-time highs, there is confidence in the asset’s long-term prospects.

However, inflows are not a guarantee of sustained upward momentum.

Short-term technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is trading near the top of a tight consolidation range between $67,000 and $68,000, and a breakout above this zone could spark a rally, although rejection may force the price back toward $63,000 or lower.

Forward Industries’ CIO says the company aims to become the “Berkshire Hathaway of the Solana ecosystem,” even as its treasury approaches $1 billion in unrealized losses.

The statement comes as SOL has declined nearly 30% year-to-date, a drop that is impacting balance sheets across major Solana-focused digital asset treasury (DAT) firms.

Solana’s Price Decline Deepens Institutional Pain

Forward Industries is the largest institutional holder of Solana. The company began accumulating SOL in September 2025 after raising approximately $1.65 billion through a private investment in public equity (PIPE), backed by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, and Multicoin Capital.

According to the latest data from CoinGecko, it holds over 6.9 million SOL. The firm acquired its position at an average price of around $230 per token, implying a total cost basis of roughly $1.59 billion.

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With the altcoin trading near $87, the company’s stake is now worth approximately $605.2 million. That represents an unrealized loss of nearly $1 billion, or roughly 62% from its average entry price.

Furthermore, FWDI shares have fallen from over $39 to roughly $5 since the company started buying SOL. According to Google Finance data, the stock price declined by 31.47% in 2026 alone.

Despite the drawdown, the firm’s conviction remains strong. Company leadership has outlined an ambitious long-term vision that transcends short-term volatility.

“Our longer-term aspiration is to be the Berkshire Hathaway of the Solana ecosystem. We believe Solana is best positioned as the blockchain for the future of internet capital markets,” Forward Industries’ CIO Ryan Navi said.

According to CoinGecko treasury data, Forward Industries is not alone. Firms like DeFi Development Corp, Upexi, and Sharps Technology are also sitting on significant unrealized losses as Solana’s price continues to slide.

The losses extend well beyond Solana-focused firms. Bitmine’s Ethereum (ETH) holdings have produced unrealized losses exceeding $7 billion. Meanwhile, Strategy’s Bitcoin (BTC) position carries paper losses of roughly $5 billion, according to Saylortracker data.

The broader DAT model, in which publicly listed companies hold crypto assets as their primary balance sheet instrument, is showing its vulnerabilities as a synchronized market decline compresses asset values while equity investors reprice risk.

Solana Launches “Solana Payments” Amid Ecosystem Momentum

Despite price struggles, ecosystem developments have continued. Yesterday, the team introduced Solana Payments, a new initiative to accelerate on-chain payment adoption.

Key Takeaways

• The Target: The roadmap aims for 10,000 TPS (1 gigagas/s) on Layer 1 and up to 10 million TPS on Layer 2 via data availability sampling.
• The Shift: Introduction of “Minimmit” single-slot finality intends to reduce transaction irreversible time from roughly 16 minutes to 6–16 seconds.
• The Timeline: Developers are planning seven hard forks on a six-month cycle through 2029 to implement these changes incrementally.

Earnings season is wrapping up with a mixed bag of results across crypto miners, AI infrastructure plays and fintech names, including MARA Holdings (MARA), TerraWulf (WULF), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Block (XYZ).

Bitcoin BTC$67,963.04 has remained relatively flat around $67,000 during Asia and European hours, with limited movement spilling over into other crypto related equities.

MARA Holdings jumped 16% to $9.80 after striking a deal with Starwood Capital to convert select bitcoin mining facilities into AI focused data centers. The partners expect to deliver about 1 gigawatt of capacity in the near term, with plans to scale beyond 2.5 gigawatts.

The pivot reflects a broader shift among miners looking to monetize power access as AI compute demand surges, following Bitfarms (BITF) and Cipher Digital (CIFR) amongst others.

TerraWulf is trading 3.5% lower at $17 after its Q4 print, with revenue down due to lower bitcoin production and transitional GAAP optics.

However, executives emphasized that the key story is the ramp in contracted high performance computing revenue. The company has expanded from one site a year ago to five today and expects about 2.9 gigawatts of gross capacity by year end, according to head of digital assets VanEck, Matthew Sigel.

CoreWeave shares are down 12% despite revenue of $1.57 billion, beating expectations of $1.53 billion. The company reported weaker than forecasted Q1 revenue guidance, in addition to an increase in capital expenditure, which raised concerns about profitability and cash burn. EPS came in at -$0.89 versus -$0.68 expected, a 31% miss.

Block is up 20% after announcing it will cut more than 40% of its workforce, reducing headcount to about 6,000. While management pointed to AI driven efficiencies, investors are also weighing longer term margin pressure from stablecoin based payment rails.

The company guided Q1 operating income to $600M versus $574M expected, forecast Q1 gross profit of $2.8B versus $2.72B consensus and raised full year gross profit, according to Sigel.

TLDR

• BofA increased Caterpillar’s price target from $735 to $825, maintaining its Buy recommendation following impressive 2025 financial results.
• The industrial giant delivered $67.6 billion in annual revenue with 4% growth, while its Power & Energy division jumped 23% to $9.4 billion.
• CNBC’s Jim Cramer expressed support for CAT’s turbine business but suggested Cummins (CMI) offers better value at current levels.
• February saw short positions increase by approximately 61%, while company insiders offloaded more than $98 million in shares during the last quarter.
• Trading at roughly 40 times earnings after a 124% annual surge, CAT faces a consensus analyst price target of $712.52 with a “Moderate Buy” average recommendation.

Caterpillar (CAT) has experienced an impressive rally. Shares have climbed 124% during the past year and gained 28% since the beginning of 2025, starting Friday’s session at $752.81.

Caterpillar Inc., CAT

Following the release of Caterpillar’s full-year 2025 financial results, Bank of America wasted no time adjusting its outlook. The investment bank elevated its price objective on CAT from $735 to $825 while reaffirming its Buy recommendation.

BofA’s analysis was clear-cut. Caterpillar is experiencing turbine demand from multiple sectors extending far beyond data center applications, which the firm believes undermines concerns about potential turbine oversupply in the market.

The financial performance supported this thesis. Caterpillar generated $67.6 billion in total revenue throughout 2025, representing a 4% year-over-year improvement. The Power & Energy division emerged as the star performer, expanding 23% to achieve $9.4 billion in sales.

Fourth-quarter performance was equally impressive. The company delivered earnings per share of $5.16 for the period, surpassing the analyst consensus of $4.67. Revenue reached $19.13 billion, significantly exceeding projections of $17.81 billion. This represented a 17.9% increase compared to the corresponding quarter one year prior.

Jim Cramer recently shared his thoughts on CAT, stating plainly, “We like their stuff.” He highlighted turbines and power equipment as the foundation of the optimistic investment thesis.

However, Cramer also expressed some reservation. When a club member inquired in January about entering a position, he noted the stock had already experienced a substantial appreciation and said he’d prefer to see a pullback before adding exposure. He indicated he currently finds Cummins (CMI) more attractive than CAT at present valuations.

Cramer also offered criticism regarding retail investor participation, suggesting that Caterpillar’s leadership team should be working harder to engage individual investors — and questioning why an iconic American corporation trades at $749.

Analyst Ratings Split

The overall analyst community remains divided. CAT currently has sixteen Buy ratings, seven Hold ratings, and one Sell rating. The average price target stands at $712.52, which actually falls below the stock’s current trading level.

Wells Fargo pushed its target to $870 alongside an Overweight rating. Daiwa elevated its projection to $790. Jefferies established a $750 target with a Buy recommendation. Oppenheimer moved to $729 with an Outperform rating. Morgan Stanley, however, only increased its target to $425 while maintaining an Underweight stance.

Wall Street Zen downgraded CAT from Buy to Hold on February 21st.

Insider Selling and Short Interest

Not all market participants are bullish. Executive Denise C. Johnson divested 39,138 shares on February 2nd at an average price of $681.08, totaling more than $26.6 million. This transaction represented a 47% reduction in her stake.

Insider Bob De Lange executed his own sale on February 6th, offloading 22,656 shares at $720.11 for approximately $16.3 million. Throughout the past 90 days, company insiders have collectively sold $98.2 million worth of shares.

Short interest also surged roughly 61% during February, indicating that some market participants are positioning for a decline.

Institutional investors control 70.98% of CAT’s outstanding shares. Erste Asset Management expanded its stake by 32.7% in Q3, purchasing 33,634 shares. Norges Bank established a new position valued at more than $2.1 billion in Q2.

CAT’s 52-week trading range extends from $267.30 to $789.81. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 40 with a market capitalization of $350.27 billion. The upcoming quarterly dividend is $1.51 per share, translating to an annualized distribution of $6.04 and a yield of 0.8%.

A small group of crypto wallets won more than $1.2 million betting on a Polymarket contract tied to an onchain investigation into decentralized finance (DeFi) trading platform Axiom, fueling fresh concerns that prediction markets can reward people with advance knowledge of market-moving disclosures.

The eight most profitable wallets on the market collectively made about $1.2 million, according to trading data compiled on Dune. The same dataset showed more than 50 wallets posting combined losses of roughly $1.23 million, while two wallets lost about $366,000.

Eight out of the top 10 wallets are likely insider addresses, judging by their onchain transaction patterns, according to onchain researcher Defioasis. “There are 3 addresses that achieved profits exceeding $100,000, all of which are insider addresses that traded only this single market,” said the researcher in a Friday X post.

ZachXBT released the much-anticipated investigation on Thursday, alleging that Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others had been responsible for insider trading activity since early 2025.

In an X response to the incident, Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” in the news and that it had removed access to the tools that were used in the alleged insider trading.

Related: Analysts reject Jane Street ‘10 a.m. dump’ claims, say Bitcoin isn’t easily manipulated

Prediction markets raise insider trading allegations

Insider trading concerns in prediction markets mounted in early January after a highly profitable bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro by the US raised eyebrows.

On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account placed a bet on a contract predicting that Maduro would be removed from office just hours before US forces captured him in a military operation, netting the user about $400,000 in profit.  

US lawmakers have since proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials, adding to the regulatory spotlight on the sector.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

Polymarket faces growing regulatory scrutiny on gambling concerns

Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, has faced mounting regulatory pressure in several countries where authorities have argued that the platform offers unlicensed gambling.

Hungary and Portugal blocked access to the platform in January, citing concerns related to forbidden gambling activities.

A week earlier, Ukraine blocked Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law.

Polymarket has also been restricted or blocked in several other countries over gambling concerns, including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland.

Magazine: Inside a 30,000 phone bot farm stealing crypto airdrops from real users