Since the world learned of massive US military deployments toward Iran on February 18, crude oil has rallied 36%, far surpassing bitcoin’s (BTC) 2.8%.

War-related headlines have definitely affected BTC which, with its 24-hour spot trading venues, has served as a trillion-dollar proxy for risk-on assets.

By charting the price of oil relative to BTC from the de facto start of the war, some of the conflict’s most critical moments become clear.

As a reference price for their pre-wartime starting points, at 12:15am New York time on February 18, BTC traded at $67,833. Oil, specifically contracts for difference (CFDs) on WTI crude, were trading at $62.39 per barrel.

At that time, open-source intelligence accounts began documenting “the largest US Air Force combat buildup in Europe and the Middle East since the Gulf War,” listing dozens of tankers, F-22s, and F-16s repositioning toward the Persian Gulf and Iran.

Chart 1: Price reaction to historic US naval movements toward Iran

The onset of war became obvious, and oil prices responded to the likelihood of supply restrictions. CFDs for the world’s most-traded and arguably most important commodity rallied without interruption for hours, and by two days later, oil had jumped 7% to $66.76 per barrel.

BTC, meanwhile, barely budged to $67,376, a near-flat 48-hour performance from its $67,833 start.

The divergence in those first 48 hours set the template for what followed. 

Oil immediately priced in an imminent kinetic war. BTC did not.

The sophistication of oil traders relative to BTC traders was obvious during those first two days.

Slowly, as anyone should expect from the class of risk-on investments as threats become too obvious to ignore, BTC slid deeper into the red after the initial military buildup reports, hitting a low of $62,525 a week later on February 24, a 7.8% decline from its 12:15am start on February 18. 

Oil, in contrast, had already begun a steady climb as more confirmation of military intent trickled into the mainstream news cycle. War was inevitable, and oil traders knew it.

Chart 2: Price reaction to official announcement of war

Finally, at 1:15am New York time on February 28, US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran formally commenced under the banner of “Operation Epic Fury.” Donald Trump announced the operation via Truth Social.

At this time, BTC was trading at $65,492. However, because the announcement fell on a weekend, oil CFDs weren’t open for trading, so there’s no way to know exactly how high oil would have traded.

Unfortunately, the most recent simultaneous price for both assets was February 27 at 5pm New York time: BTC at $65,524 and oil at $67.28 per barrel.

BTC panicked on the initial, formal announcement from Trump. Within 30 minutes, it dropped 3.8% to $63,037. It then recovered.

By Sunday, March 1 at 6pm New York time, when oil CFDs resumed trading, crude had gapped up 11.5% to $75 per barrel. 

BTC, at $65,245, remained essentially flat since Trump’s formal announcement. 

Oil was already repricing supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was threatening to block tanker traffic. BTC wasn’t. It had already sold off slightly from its pre-war, $67,833 start.

Oil surges 91% to $119 per barrel, while BTC recovers its mild loss

The war escalated quickly, sending the price of oil skyrocketing, but risk-on assets soon recovered entirely. 

Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, briefly disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply. Tanker traffic through the chokepoint dropped 81%. Airports and US bases throughout the Middle East took on drone and missile damage.

Oil producers declared force majeure on contracts. Drone strikes hit Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery and Qatari export facilities. Gulf oil production collectively fell by 6.7 million barrels per day by March 10.

Incredibly, oil prices wicked up to $119.48 per barrel at 10:32pm New York time on March 8, a 91.5% surge from its February 18 baseline. BTC peaked much earlier, at $74,075 on March 4 at 2:15pm New York time, for a comparatively modest 9.2% gain.

By 10:40pm New York time on March 10, oil had pulled back 29% from its peak to $84.86 per barrel, partly on comments from Trump suggesting the conflict would resolve “very soon.”

BTC sat at $69,725.

Read more: Bitcoin up, Dubai real estate down since Iran war began

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Chart 3: From start to finish, two wildly different returns

In the roughly three weeks since the start of the war, oil has gained approximately 35% while BTC as a risk-on asset has gained approximately 3%. The above chart illustrates that time period.

Oil’s entire trading range over that time period was $62.39 to $119.48 per barrel. BTC’s range, despite its far smaller size, was a far more conservative $62,525 to $74,075. 

One asset reacted to a worldwide a supply shock. The other absorbed headline volatility and largely shrugged it off.

As usual, there are many ways to trade headlines. At least across the opening weeks of this war, oil scarcity has been the bullish trade. BTC was the hold.

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[PRESS RELEASE – Fort Worth, Texas, March 11th, 2026]

CoinFello, an AI agent optimized for interacting directly with any EVM smart contract, today announced the release of its open source OpenClaw skill in partnership with MetaMask. The new integration enables Moltbots, personal AI agents running on OpenClaw, to securely execute on-chain transactions using delegated smart wallet permissions.

The launch introduces a new framework for connecting AI agents with crypto wallets while maintaining user custody of private keys. By leveraging ERC-4337 smart accounts and ERC-7710 delegations through the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit, the CoinFello OpenClaw skill allows Moltbots to grant other agents, such as CoinFello, narrowly defined delegations to act on their behalf. This represents a significant advancement in agentic wallet security compared to the current status quo, where agents typically store private keys or API credentials in plain text.

The system follows the principle of least privilege. A user’s Moltbot can grant CoinFello, and eventually other compatible agents, only the permissions required to complete a specific task, ensuring no agent receives broader wallet access than necessary. When a user submits a natural-language request, CoinFello converts the instruction into a delegated transaction and validates it in an evaluation layer before execution.

“If we want agents to participate meaningfully in the on-chain economy, we need a security model that is better than handing an autonomous system a private key,” said Brett Cleary, CTO at CoinFello. “The CoinFello Skill introduces hardware-isolated keys and fine-grained delegations, giving AI agents a secure way to execute transactions while helping bootstrap on-chain capabilities for the broader agent ecosystem.”

The release comes amid the rapid growth of the OpenClaw ecosystem. Over the past two months, the OpenClaw GitHub repository has surpassed 150,000 stars and 22,000 forks, while npm downloads exceeded 416,000 in the previous 30 days.

Until now, many AI agent wallets have given the agent direct access to a private key or API credential, exposing sensitive secrets within the agent’s runtime and creating a large attack surface.

Some newer designs attempt to mitigate this risk by using server-side trusted execution environments (TEEs), but they still rely on centralized infrastructure.

The CoinFello skill takes a different approach. The signing key stays on the user’s device, while tasks are carried out through fine-grained ERC-7710 delegations. Agents can execute actions without ever accessing the private key.

Using the CoinFello skill, Moltbots can perform a wide range of blockchain actions via natural-language prompts. Supported capabilities include swapping between ERC-20 assets, bridging across EVM networks, interacting with NFTs such as ERC-721 or ERC-1155 tokens, staking, lending, automatic rebalancing of token portfolios, and executing multi-step trading strategies.

The CoinFello OpenClaw skill is built on the Agent Skills specification and is compatible with OpenClaw environments and Claude Code. The implementation is released under the MIT license, allowing developers to freely deploy, modify, and contribute to the skill in their own AI agent environments.

CoinFello notes that the system is designed to remain open and configurable. While CoinFello acts as the default Web3 agent, Moltbots can delegate permissions to any compatible on-chain agent. The company says future development will focus on expanding permissions frameworks and deeper integrations with the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit to support broader portfolio management features.

Interest in the intersection of AI agents and crypto infrastructure has accelerated in recent months as developers experiment with autonomous software agents capable of interacting with decentralized networks. The CoinFello OpenClaw skill aims to provide a secure foundation for this emerging category by bridging natural language interfaces with on-chain execution.

About CoinFello

CoinFello is an AI agent designed to explain, execute, and automate interactions with smart contracts. Built for self-custody, the platform is currently available in private alpha for end users, with developer versions expected soon. CoinFello supports EVM-compatible networks, leverages EigenAI to enable a self-custodied AI environment, and integrates the MetaMask Smart Accounts Kit to give users control over their assets.

Mastercard has launched a new Crypto Partner Program that brings together more than 85 companies from across the digital asset and payments industries, an effort to link blockchain technology more directly with the infrastructure that underpins global commerce.

The program includes crypto exchanges, blockchain developers, fintech firms and banks such as Binance, Circle, Ripple, Gemini, PayPal and Paxos, the company told CoinDesk in a statement. Participants will work with Mastercard to explore how blockchain-based systems can connect with traditional payment rails used by banks, merchants and consumers around the world.

Mastercard said the initiative focuses on practical use cases where digital assets are already gaining traction, including cross-border transfers, business-to-business payments and global payouts.

Digital assets once operated largely outside the traditional financial system. In recent years, however, companies and financial institutions have begun experimenting with blockchain tools to move money faster across borders or settle transactions around the clock.

For payment companies like Mastercard, the challenge is less about replacing existing systems and more about connecting new ones to the networks that already handle global commerce.

Mastercard’s network links banks, merchants and consumers in more than 200 countries and territories. The company argues that blockchain-based payments will only scale widely if they can plug into that kind of global infrastructure.

The Crypto Partner Program is designed to create that bridge. Companies in the program will work with Mastercard teams to help shape products that combine on-chain tools — such as programmable payments or tokenized assets — with established payment rails.

The initiative also gives partners access to forums where they can collaborate with one another and with Mastercard’s broader ecosystem of financial institutions and merchants.

The move builds on several earlier efforts by Mastercard to engage with the digital asset industry. The company has supported crypto-linked payment cards, backed blockchain startups through its Start Path accelerator and developed services aimed at helping banks manage crypto compliance and risk.

Competitors have taken similar steps. Visa has worked with stablecoin issuers and blockchain firms to test settlement using digital dollars, while major banks continue to explore tokenized deposits and blockchain-based payment systems.

Still, integrating digital assets into everyday commerce remains a complex process. Payments require consistent standards, regulatory oversight and systems that work across borders — areas where traditional card networks have decades of experience.

Binance formally refuted the allegations a few days ago.

The Department of Justice has begun investigating whether Iran, which is currently engaged in a full-on war with the United States, has used the world’s largest crypto exchange to evade American sanctions, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.

The probe comes a few weeks after several US Democratic senators, led by Richard Blumenthal, urged the DOJ and Treasury to look into any potential moves on Binance from Iran-linked wallets.

Citing people familiar with the matter, the WSJ reported earlier today that officials have contacted individuals with knowledge of the Iranian transactions to interview them and gather evidence.

However, the publication said it couldn’t “determine whether the Justice Department is investigating Binance itself for potential misconduct, or solely the customers on its platform.”

As reported over the weekend, Binance officially rejected the allegations made by the US senators, calling the media reports cited in the Senate “false, unsupported, and defamatory claims.”

The company explained that it operates a robust compliance program with more than 1,500 specialists worldwide and advanced monitoring tools designed to detect suspicious activity.

It asserted that its exposure to wallets linked to any sort of illicit activity has declined by nearly 97% since early 2024. However, it admitted that “absolute zero risk is impossible on public blockchains but relies on robust monitoring and controls to minimize and mitigate risks.”

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The strikes between the US and Israel on one side and Iran on the other have put crypto back into focus, at least to an extent. Reports emerging in the first hours and days after the attacks began indicated that crypto outflows skyrocketed by triple-digit percentages, and the overall on-chain activity linked to Iran had risen to unprecedented heights.

Key Takeaways

• Hyperscale Data targets $180M–$200M revenue for 2026 through AI and blockchain expansion.
• Complete Ballista integration projected to contribute $40M annually versus $3.2M in Q4 2025.
• Ault Lending division forecast to generate $20M–$30M, enhancing profit margins.
• AI infrastructure and software solutions positioned for scalable revenue growth.
• Multi-segment operations and premium-margin platforms support robust 2026 projections.

Shares of Hyperscale Data, Inc. (GPUS) finished trading at $0.1669, gaining 0.97%, while pre-market activity showed the stock at $0.1715, climbing 2.76%. The firm unveiled fiscal 2026 revenue projections ranging from $180 million to $200 million. These estimates suggest potential year-over-year expansion of 80% to 100% compared to preliminary fiscal 2025 figures.

Hyperscale Data, Inc., GPUS

Preliminary 2025 revenue figures included only partial-year results from Gresham Worldwide, Inc. This entity is merging with Ballista Group, Inc., which recently emerged from bankruptcy proceedings. Management anticipates Ballista will generate $40 million in full-year 2026 revenue, substantially higher than the $3.2 million recorded during Q4 2025.

Revenue acceleration stems from broadening activities across artificial intelligence infrastructure, software solutions, blockchain technology, financial services, and digital platforms. Historical capital deployments in these sectors are now yielding more stable financial returns. Leadership projects these strategic investments will produce between $24 million and $44 million in 2026 revenue.

Multiple Revenue Streams Underpin 2026 Projections

The company’s lending arm, Ault Lending, is forecast to contribute $20 million to $30 million toward 2026 revenue totals. Current quarter expectations include roughly $10 million from this division alone. Ault Lending has delivered strong profitability margins despite variable trading conditions.

The company’s multi-faceted business model enables various revenue channels while preserving strategic capital management. Premium-margin segments are anticipated to boost consolidated profitability. Income from software applications, blockchain initiatives, and digital ecosystems may yield superior margins relative to conventional infrastructure services.

Ongoing capital investment in high-performance computing facilities, AI data centers, and Bitcoin mining infrastructure will continue through 2026. Rising utilization across these assets should enhance fixed-cost efficiency and improve aggregate margin performance. Management expects operational leverage to strengthen as emerging platforms achieve commercial-scale revenue production.

Artificial Intelligence and Digital Platform Development

Hyperscale Data progresses its artificial intelligence infrastructure strategy, featuring Michigan-based AI computing facilities and expanded HPC capabilities. Worldwide demand for AI computational power, enterprise hosting solutions, and inference processing shows sustained upward momentum. AI-driven service offerings are positioned to become major contributors to revenue expansion and margin enhancement.

The organization’s software and digital platform investments are architected for efficient scaling alongside physical infrastructure. Growing platform revenue is expected to bolster profitability through fourth-quarter 2026. Leadership forecasts that higher-margin business segments will create leverage for sustained growth into fiscal 2027.

Hyperscale Data proceeds with Ballista consolidation efforts and subsidiary integration to reinforce financial resilience. Year-round contributions from reorganized business units provide enhanced revenue predictability. The company establishes itself to leverage diversified operational capabilities, scalable infrastructure assets, and maturing digital platforms throughout the 2026 fiscal year.