Crypto World
Pi Network Price Prediction: Can PI Reclaim $0.20?
Pi trades near $0.12, sitting on its all-time low, down roughly 95% from its peak. Getting back to $0.20 would take a 60% gain. This guide weighs the unlocks and thin liquidity dragging it down against the upgrades and the Pi2Day catalyst that bulls are counting on.
Summary
- Pi trades near $0.12-$0.13, sitting on or just below its all-time low near $0.13, down roughly 95% from its post-listing peak above $2.90.
- Reclaiming $0.20 would require a gain of roughly 60% from current levels, a large move against a year-long downtrend, and persistent selling pressure.
- The core drag is supply meeting weak demand: ongoing token unlocks add millions of coins while 24-hour volume sits below $10 to 26 million against a market cap over $1.3 billion, a sign of thin liquidity.
- The bull case rests on catalysts: the annual Pi2Day event, newly launched smart contracts, a growing app ecosystem, and the long-awaited possibility of a major exchange listing.
- Reclaiming $0.20 before year-end is possible but demanding, requiring real demand to finally outpace the unlocks, with the more likely path a continued grind unless a genuine catalyst lands.
Pi Network’s token trades near $0.12, sitting on or just below its all-time low, and the question for the rest of 2026 is whether it can claw its way back to $0.20, a level that would require a gain of roughly 60% from where it stands now. That framing matters because $0.20 is not an arbitrary target; it is the level Pi traded around as recently as late 2025 before its latest decline, a psychological and technical zone that, if reclaimed, would signal that the relentless downtrend has finally broken.
Getting there, though, means overcoming the forces that have driven Pi down roughly 95% from its post-listing peak above $2 and $0.90: a steady stream of token unlocks that keep adding supply, thin trading liquidity that makes the token fragile, weak real-world utility, and the conspicuous absence of a listing on a major tier-one exchange.
Against those headwinds stand a set of genuine catalysts that Pi’s large community is counting on, including the network’s annual flagship event, the recent arrival of smart contracts, a growing roster of ecosystem apps, and the ever-present possibility of a major listing. This piece weighs the two sides honestly to assess whether a move back to $0.20 is realistic before the year ends.
The reason to frame Pi’s prediction around the twenty-cent question, rather than the wildly divergent multi-year targets that fill most prediction pages, is that Pi’s situation is fundamentally a near-term contest between supply and demand, and $0.20 is the concrete level at which that contest would be visibly resolved in the bulls’ favor.
The wildly optimistic long-term forecasts that some sites publish, and the community calls for prices many multiples higher, are largely disconnected from the mechanics actually driving Pi’s price right now, which are the unlock schedule, the thin liquidity, and the search for real demand.
What follows traces how Pi reached its all-time low, maps the levels that matter, examines the supply problem that defines the token, weighs the catalysts that could spark a recovery against the forces holding it down, and lays out concrete bull, base, and bear scenarios for whether $0.20 is reachable before year-end.
A long way back to $0.20
Start with the distance Pi has to travel, because it frames everything. At roughly $0.20, Pi sits on or just beneath its all-time low near $0.13, having fallen relentlessly from a peak above $2 and $0.90 recorded shortly after its broader market availability. That is a decline of roughly 95%, the kind of drawdown that leaves a token searching for any sign of a floor.
To reclaim $0.20 from $0.12 requires a gain of around 60%, which in the context of crypto is far from impossible over a year, but which represents a major reversal for an asset that has done little but fall and that faces continuous selling pressure from new supply.
The $0.20 level is meaningful precisely because Pi traded around it as recently as the fourth quarter of 2025, before sliding below it and then below subsequent support levels through the first half of 2026, so reclaiming it would mark a genuine break from the established downtrend.
The path to $0.20 was a steady erosion rather than a single collapse. Pi traded in a higher range through much of 2025, with periods in the $0.30-$0.40, before momentum faded in the second half of the year and the price slipped into the twenties and then below.
In early 2026, it broke beneath the twenty-cent area that had served as support, and subsequent attempts to rally, often fueled by ecosystem announcements, failed to hold, with the price repeatedly rejected at higher levels before resuming its decline toward the all-time low.
The token now trades below all of its major moving averages with momentum indicators in or near oversold territory, the technical signature of a sustained downtrend that has not yet found its bottom. The 60% climb back to $0.20, in other words, would have to overcome both the weight of a year-long decline and the specific forces that have driven it, which is why the question is genuinely open rather than a foregone conclusion in either direction.
The levels: $0.097 below, $0.20 above
The technical map around Pi is worth laying out, because it defines how much room there is on each side. Immediately around the current price, support sits in the area of $0.130-$0.135, the zone of the all-time low, with a break below it pointing toward lower levels that some analysts identify near $0.10, and a deeper “ultimate support” flagged around $0.09-$0.10.
These are the downside markers: losing the all-time low would open the door to single-digit-cent territory, a prospect that underscores how fragile the current level is. The fact that Pi is testing its all-time low at all means there is little historical price structure beneath it to provide support, which is part of what makes the downside risk real.
On the upside, the resistance levels are stacked and meaningful, which is what makes the climb to $0.20 demanding. The first hurdle sits near $0.14, with a more significant barrier around $0.16, the level that has recently capped rallies. Above that, the seventeen-to-nineteen-cent zone represents further resistance, and then $0.20 itself, the target, sits at the top of this band as both a psychological round number and a former support-turned-resistance level.
For Pi to reclaim $0.20, it would have to break through this entire stack of resistance in succession, each level representing a point where sellers, including holders looking to exit losing positions and recipients of newly unlocked tokens, are likely to apply pressure.
The structure is therefore asymmetric in a worrying way for bulls: relatively little support beneath the all-time low, and multiple layers of resistance between the current price and the twenty-cent target. Climbing that wall requires sustained buying pressure that has been conspicuously absent, which brings the analysis to the core problem.
The supply problem nobody can ignore
The single most important factor weighing on Pi’s price is the imbalance between supply and demand, and it is worth understanding in detail because it defines the token’s predicament. Pi has a very large maximum supply, and a substantial portion of the total has yet to enter circulation, held back by lock-up mechanisms that release tokens on a schedule. As those unlocks occur, new supply enters the market, and in June alone, the network was set to unlock well over 170 million tokens worth tens of millions of dollars.
This is the crux of the problem: every unlock adds coins that can be sold, and unless demand grows fast enough to absorb them, the additional supply pushes the price down. For a token already in a downtrend, a steady stream of unlocks acts as a persistent headwind, continually replenishing the supply available to sell into any rally.
Compounding the supply pressure is the thinness of Pi’s trading liquidity, which is striking given its size. Despite a market capitalization above $1 billion, Pi’s 24-hour trading volume has at times fallen below $10 million and generally sits in the low tens of millions, an unusually small amount of trading for a token of that nominal value. Thin liquidity makes a token fragile in both directions, but especially on the downside, because relatively small amounts of selling can move the price significantly when there are few buyers, and the steady supply from unlocks meets a market without deep enough demand to absorb it.
This combination, ongoing unlocks adding supply into a thinly traded market with weak organic demand, is the fundamental reason Pi has ground lower, and it is the central obstacle to any recovery toward $0.20. Until demand grows enough to outpace the unlocks and deepen the liquidity, the supply problem will keep exerting downward pressure, which is why the bull case has to rest on catalysts large enough to change the demand side of the equation.
The bull case: catalysts that could spark a move
For Pi to reclaim $0.20, demand has to finally outpace the unlocks, and the bull case rests on a set of catalysts that could, in principle, drive that demand, several of which are concrete and near-term.
The most immediate is the network’s annual flagship event, held in late June, which has historically served as a moment for major ecosystem announcements, including new applications, developer initiatives, and feature launches. Because the community anticipates this event as a catalyst, it can drive a surge of engagement and speculative buying around the date, and a slate of well-received announcements could refresh the narrative around Pi and spark the kind of demand the price needs.
The event functions as a recurring opportunity for a positive surprise, and with it falling just days away from the current moment, it is the most time-sensitive catalyst on the horizon.
The deeper bull case rests on the network’s technical progress and ecosystem growth. Pi recently introduced smart contracts through a series of protocol upgrades, a significant capability that opens the door to decentralized finance, real-world asset tokenization, and more complex applications, potentially giving the token the genuine utility it has lacked.
The ecosystem has shown early signs of life, with new applications and games attracting tens of thousands of users in short periods, developer tools expanding, and initiatives to make it easier for builders to launch apps and reach Pi’s large user base.
If this ecosystem activity translates into real, sustained usage that creates organic demand for the token, it could begin to absorb the unlock supply and shift the supply-demand balance. And hanging over everything is the possibility, long rumored and long awaited, of a listing on a major tier-one exchange, which would dramatically expand access, liquidity, and visibility, and which many in the community view as the single catalyst most capable of driving a substantial repricing.
Each of these, the event, the smart contracts, the ecosystem, and a potential major listing, is a plausible source of the demand a recovery would require, which is what keeps the bull case alive despite the bearish chart.
The bear case: why $0.20 may stay out of reach
Honesty requires giving equal weight to the case that $0.20 stays out of reach, because the bearish argument is grounded in the same structural realities that have driven Pi to its all-time low.
The foundation is the supply problem: the unlocks are scheduled and will continue regardless of sentiment, so unless demand grows substantially and consistently, the steady addition of new supply will keep capping rallies and pressuring the price, making a 60% climb against that headwind genuinely difficult.
The thin liquidity reinforces this, because even if demand picks up, the shallow market can be overwhelmed by unlock-driven selling, and the absence of deep order books makes sustained rallies hard to hold.
The bearish case is reinforced by the demand side’s persistent weakness. Despite a large user base, Pi has struggled to translate that into real economic activity that creates organic token demand, with utility remaining limited and much of the trading driven by speculation instead of usage.
The much-anticipated catalysts have, in the past, repeatedly failed to produce sustained demand: ecosystem announcements have sparked brief rallies that faded, and the major exchange listing that the community counts on has not materialized despite years of anticipation, with no guarantee it ever will.
The risk around the annual event is that announcements fail to meet the community’s high expectations, which could trigger sell pressure instead of a rally. And Pi remains exposed to the broader crypto market, where a weak environment for altcoins provides little tailwind.
The bearish synthesis is that Pi’s problems are structural and have repeatedly defeated the same catalysts the bulls are counting on, so the most likely path is a continued grind near or below the all-time low, with $0.20 remaining out of reach unless something truly changes the demand side in a durable way.
One widely cited analysis has flagged a path toward $0.10 as a real possibility if unlocks keep outrunning demand.
The bull, base, and bear cases for year-end
Tying the scenarios to the supply-demand contest and the catalysts makes them concrete. These are conditional ranges, not predictions, and each depends on whether demand can outpace the unlocks.
- Bull case: a genuine catalyst lands, whether a strong slate of announcements at the annual event, real adoption of the new smart-contract capabilities, breakout ecosystem usage, or a long-awaited major exchange listing, and demand finally outpaces the unlock supply. Pi breaks through the stack of resistance from fourteen to $0.19 and reclaims $0.20 before year-end, with the upper end of optimistic ranges pointing toward the high $0.20-$0.40 if a major listing in particular materializes.
- Base case: Pi continues to grind in a low range near its all-time low, roughly $0.12-$0.18, as the unlocks and thin liquidity cap rallies while the ecosystem develops too slowly to generate the demand needed for a decisive breakout. In this scenario, the catalysts produce brief rallies that fade, $0.20 is approached at best but not reclaimed durably, and the token ends the year near where it began the second half.
- Bear case: the unlocks continue to outpace weak demand, the anticipated catalysts disappoint, no major listing arrives, and a soft broader market provides no support. Pi loses its all-time low and slides into single-digit-cent territory toward $0.10 or below, with $0.20 firmly out of reach and the structural supply problem dominating.
What to watch
For anyone tracking whether Pi can reclaim $0.20, the analysis points to a clear watchlist, and the first item is the annual event and its immediate aftermath. Because the late-June event is the most time-sensitive catalyst, the substance of its announcements and the market’s reaction will be an early and telling signal: a strong, well-received slate that drives sustained buying would support the bull case, while announcements that disappoint and a rally that fades would reinforce the bearish pattern of catalysts failing to produce lasting demand. Watching how Pi trades around and after the event is the most immediate test.
The second item is the perennial question of a major exchange listing, which remains the single catalyst most capable of a substantial repricing; any credible news of a tier-one listing would be a powerful bullish signal, while continued absence keeps a key source of liquidity and demand off the table.
The third item is the relationship between the unlocks and demand, which is the structural heart of the matter: watching whether trading volume and on-chain usage grow enough to absorb the scheduled unlock supply, or whether the unlocks continue to outpace demand, will indicate which direction the supply-demand balance is tipping. The fourth item is the adoption of the new smart-contract capabilities, and the ecosystem’s growth, since real, sustained usage is what would create the organic demand a durable recovery requires, as opposed to the speculative rallies that have repeatedly faded.
The honest synthesis is that reclaiming $0.20 is possible but demanding, requiring demand to finally and durably outpace the persistent unlock supply, and that, absent a genuine catalyst of sufficient size, the more likely path is a continued grind near the all-time low. The catalysts that could change this are real, and some are near-term, but Pi’s history is a string of catalysts that sparked brief hope and faded, so the burden of proof rests firmly on demand actually showing up this time.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Pi trading near its all-time low?
Because of a persistent imbalance between supply and demand. Pi has a very large maximum supply, much of it released gradually through scheduled unlocks, and in some months, well over 100 million tokens enter circulation. That steady new supply meets weak organic demand and unusually thin trading liquidity, with twenty-four-hour volume sometimes below $10 million despite a market cap of over 1 billion. The result is continuous downward pressure: new supply gets sold into a shallow market without enough buyers to absorb it, driving Pi down roughly 95% from its post-listing peak to its current all-time low area near $0.12-$0.13.
What would it take for Pi to reach $0.20?
Demand would have to finally and durably outpace the unlock supply, which requires a genuine catalyst. The most immediate is the network’s annual late-June event, which can drive engagement if its announcements are strong. The deeper drivers would be real adoption of Pi’s new smart-contract capabilities, breakout ecosystem usage that creates organic token demand, and, most powerfully, a listing on a major tier-one exchange, which would expand access and liquidity. Reclaiming $0.20 from $0.12 is a roughly 60% gain, achievable in crypto over a year but demanding against the unlock headwind, so it depends on demand truly showing up.
What is the supply problem with Pi?
Pi has a large maximum supply, and a substantial portion has not yet entered circulation, held back by lock-up mechanisms that release tokens on a schedule. As these unlocks occur, new coins enter the market and can be sold, and unless demand grows fast enough to absorb them, the added supply pushes the price down. For a token already in a downtrend with thin liquidity, this acts as a persistent headwind, continually replenishing the supply available to sell into rallies. The supply problem is the central obstacle to any recovery, because it must be outpaced by demand for the price to rise durably.
Why does Pi’s thin liquidity matter?
Because it makes the token fragile and amplifies the supply problem. Despite a market cap over $1 billion, Pi’s daily trading volume often sits in the low tens of millions or below, unusually small for a token of that size. Thin liquidity means relatively small amounts of selling can move the price significantly when buyers are scarce, so the steady supply from unlocks meets a market without the depth to absorb it smoothly. It also makes rallies hard to sustain, because shallow order books can be overwhelmed. Deepening liquidity, which a major exchange listing would help with, is part of what a durable recovery would require.
Could Pi fall below its all-time low?
Yes, that is the bear scenario, and it is a real risk. Because Pi is testing its all-time low, there is little historical price structure beneath it to provide support, so a decisive break lower could open the door to single-digit-cent territory, with analysts identifying levels near $0.10 and a deeper floor below that. This would happen if the unlocks continue to outpace weak demand, the anticipated catalysts disappoint, no major listing arrives, and the broader market stays soft. One widely cited analysis has flagged a path toward $0.10 as a genuine possibility if supply keeps overwhelming demand.
Are the bullish long-term Pi price predictions realistic?
Most of the very high long-term targets that circulate, including community calls for prices many multiples above current levels, are largely disconnected from the mechanics actually driving Pi’s price, which are the unlock schedule, thin liquidity, and weak demand. Reaching even $1, let alone the far higher figures some promote, would require a combination of full ecosystem adoption, sustained real usage, and much broader exchange access than exists today, and figures in the hundreds or thousands of dollars are not grounded in any realistic near or medium-term scenario. A disciplined view focuses on the near-term supply-demand contest instead of speculative long-range targets.
This article is information, not investment advice. The scenarios described are conditional ranges that depend on unresolved questions, not predictions, and Pi is highly volatile with thin liquidity. Prices, unlock schedules, and ecosystem developments reflect reporting available as of June 26, 2026, and can change quickly. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell. Verify current data from primary sources and consider your own circumstances before making any decision.
The crypto industry, naturally, is urging passage. The common refrain online is that Clarity includes some investor protection rules and creates some structure for crypto products, while not passing the bill would mean there are no investor protections.
If the bill is to pass the Senate before summer recess begins, the first thing to watch for is a motion to proceed on Monday or Tuesday. This kicks off the formal process. If the motion to proceed is filed by Wednesday, one individual following the process said, that would still give the Senate enough time to vote on the bill before August 7, the last day of the summer session.
If the motion to proceed ripens — meaning it’s been an hour into the second day after the motion is filed, according to the Congressional Institute, a not-for-profit organization — there can be a cloture vote, most likely on the amendment in the nature of a substitute (i.e. the new text of the bill). If that passes, there can be another cloture vote later on for the actual passage of the bill.
“Recess deadlines are powerful tools,” Kristin Smith, the president of the Solana Policy Institute, told CoinDesk.
On a practical note, what this most likely means is we’ll see the motion to proceed Monday or Tuesday, two industry sources told CoinDesk, with a possible vote late next week.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued another warning to prediction market operators, urging them to follow its rules when certifying event contracts that cover a wide range of possible outcomes. The regulator said some platforms are submitting “self-certified” listings without providing the specific terms and compliance analysis required for each contract permutation.
In an advisory released on July 24 and published as part of a Friday notice, the CFTC reiterated that—despite ongoing policy discussions and proposed rulemaking—operators may still self-certify certain event contracts as compliant with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations, as long as they do so within the statutory self-certification framework.
Key takeaways
- The CFTC warned that broad, template-style self-certifications for event contracts are not acceptable for listings under its jurisdiction.
- Operators are expected to submit the terms and conditions for each proposed permutation, along with concise explanations tied to the product and the relevant commodity and compliance requirements.
- The advisory underscores the regulator’s view that generalized submissions have been a recurring issue, with a similar warning issued earlier this year.
- The latest move comes just before a public comment deadline tied to the CFTC’s proposed amendments on public interest determinations for certain event contracts.
Why the CFTC is pushing back on “self-certified” event contracts
According to the CFTC’s July 24 announcement, the agency has observed multiple instances where event contracts are being self-certified by platforms without supplying the full details the CFTC says it needs. Specifically, the regulator criticized submissions that do not include the terms and conditions of each proposed permutation, nor a concise explanation and analysis explaining how the product’s terms and conditions relate to compliance expectations.
The advisory frames this as a compliance execution problem rather than a blanket prohibition on prediction market products. The CFTC emphasized that operators can certify certain event contracts without seeking prior commission approval, but they must do so properly under the self-certification structure established by law and CFTC regulations.
In the regulator’s words, broad, template-style certifications should not be submitted. The CFTC’s concern is that generalized paperwork makes it harder to evaluate whether each individual contract listing complies with the CEA and applicable CFTC requirements—particularly when a contract covers a wide swath of events and permutations.
A warning issued twice in 2026
The July 24 advisory is not the first time the CFTC has flagged the issue this year. The agency referenced a similar warning on March 12, again targeting overly generalized submissions. By issuing the guidance for a second time, the CFTC is effectively signaling that it expects corrective action and that it views continued template-style filings as a repeated compliance failure.
For operators, this matters because self-certification is often treated as a faster path to listing products compared with seeking affirmative approval. If the CFTC continues to find that filings lack the required detail, platforms may face heightened regulatory scrutiny, which can translate into delays, requests for additional information, or more direct enforcement consequences—especially for contracts built around broad event categories.
Regulatory timeline: comments due before rule amendments
The advisory arrives shortly before the CFTC’s July 27 deadline for submitting comments on proposed rule amendments related to how the agency conducts public interest determinations for certain event contracts.
Those proposed amendments aim to clarify how the CFTC determines whether specific event contracts are contrary to the public interest under the CEA. The CFTC described the approach as a three-step analytical framework intended to evaluate contracts based on their involvement in certain enumerated activities—such as terrorism, assassination, or gaming—so that only appropriate contracts are listed for trading.
The proximity between the self-certification warning and the comment period is likely not accidental. For prediction market businesses, the next regulatory phase could change how contracts are assessed for public interest risks even if self-certification remains available in some circumstances. Operators will therefore need to reconcile two parallel expectations: submit sufficiently detailed self-certifications now, while also preparing for potential changes in the CFTC’s public interest evaluation standards later.
What changes for operators: from templates to permutation-specific filings
The practical thrust of the CFTC’s message is straightforward: when an event contract can take many forms—or when it is designed to cover numerous permutations—operators need documentation that matches that complexity. The CFTC’s criticism centered on certifications that do not provide, for each proposed permutation, the terms and conditions and a concise compliance explanation tailored to the product’s conditions, the underlying commodity, and applicable compliance considerations.
That means the template approach that may be common for scaled product development—where only a few parameters are varied across listings—could be viewed by the CFTC as insufficient when the certification is expected to demonstrate compliance for each unique configuration.
For market participants such as traders and liquidity providers, the filing quality issue may not directly change how contracts trade day-to-day, but it does affect listing stability and regulatory risk. If contract certifications are challenged, the availability of products could be disrupted, and participants may face sudden changes in trading access or contract availability.
Legal practitioners have also pointed to how the pending amendments could alter the regulatory landscape. Earlier coverage noted that law firm Ropes & Gray said the CFTC’s proposed changes could “rewrite the rulebook” for prediction market contracts, reflecting how significant the public interest determination framework could be if adopted.
What to watch next
With comments due July 27 on the proposed public interest determinations framework, prediction market operators should expect follow-on developments that could refine what the CFTC considers acceptable contract listings and how self-certification must be documented. The key question ahead is whether operators will update certification practices to avoid template-style submissions and how the CFTC will translate its three-step framework into enforceable guidance if the proposed amendments move forward.
KB Kookmin Bank will launch a blockchain payment service for import and export companies in August.
The bank will initially process US dollar payments for those clients over JPMorgan’s Kinexys network. It announced the plan on July 26.
South Korean Bank Moves Dollar Trade Payments Onto JPMorgan Blockchain
Kinexys is JPMorgan’s blockchain unit, formerly known as Onyx. It runs institutional payments, tokenization, and digital asset settlement.
The platform has processed more than $4 trillion since its launch. Average daily transactions exceed $7 billion.
The service will initially support dollar remittances to 10 countries, including South Korea, according to local media reports. The list covers the US, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, India, Thailand, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and South Africa. Korean branches and KB Kookmin’s Singapore office will offer the service.
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This comes just days after KB Kookmin was selected for a government-backed deposit token payment project. The Ministry of Science and ICT and the Korea Internet & Security Agency run the program.
Whether other Korean lenders adopt Kinexys will test how far tokenized deposits reach beyond JPMorgan’s clients.
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The post South Korea’s Biggest Bank Taps JPMorgan Blockchain for Trade Payments appeared first on BeInCrypto.
For the second time this year, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) issued a warning to prediction markets operators to follow the rules when creating contract certifications that operators consider cover a broad swath of events contracts.
The CFTC, which claims to be the primary regulator of prediction markets, on Friday issued an advisory clarifying that, notwithstanding ongoing policy discussions and proposed rulemaking concerning prediction markets, the markets retain the ability to certify event contracts as compliant with the Commodity Exchange Act and CFTC regulations without prior commission approval, subject to the statutory framework governing self-certification.
The agency on Friday warned about the number of instances of events contracts that are “self-certified” by the platforms under the agency’s jurisdiction “without supplying the terms and conditions of each proposed permutation and a concise explanation and analysis with respect to the product’s terms and conditions, the underlying commodity, and the product’s compliance.”
“The guidance reiterates that broad, template-style certifications should not be submitted,” the CFTC said in its July 24 announcement. The regulator issued a similar warning about overly generalized submissions on March 12.
The advisory was issued just days ahead of the CFTC’s July 27 deadline to submit comments on its proposed rule amendments governing public interest determinations for certain event contracts involving the Commodity Exchange Act’s enumerated activities.
The CFTC has proposed amendments to clarify how it determines whether certain event contracts are contrary to the public interest, establishing a three-step analytical framework for evaluation.
This framework will help assess contracts based on their involvement in activities like terrorism, assassination, or gaming, ensuring that only appropriate contracts are listed for trading.
The proposed rule, if adopted, would fundamentally reshape aspects of the regulatory landscape for prediction markets, law firm Ropes & Gray said in June.
The crypto market has remained volatile throughout 2026 as investors continue debating when Bitcoin (BTC) will establish a durable bottom.
While broader market sentiment remains uncertain, some altcoins have shown resilience. Among them, TRON (TRX) is now flashing technical and on-chain signals that raise questions about its bottom.
TRX Price Action Steadies After a 16% Slide
According to 10x Research, TRX fell around 16% from its May high before finding support in late June. It now sits above both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages.
The firm reads both reclaims as bullish momentum signals. The altcoin has gained 2.2% over the past week and recovered 6% from its lows. Still, TRX remains 11% below its May peak.
The token trades near $0.33, about 23% under its record high of $0.4313.
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Stablecoin Activity and Treasury Buying Support the Bullish Case
Beyond the improving technical picture, growing institutional accumulation and strong network usage are reinforcing the positive outlook for TRX.
Nasdaq-listed Tron Inc. has continued expanding its treasury, purchasing another 150,742 TRX on Sunday at an average price of $0.3317. The acquisition lifted its holdings to more than 706.9 million TRX.
The Nasdaq-listed company purchases roughly $50,000 of TRX daily under a 360-day accumulation plan.
“We are executing a deliberate accumulation strategy that reflects our confidence in TRON’s scalability, real-world utility, and long-term value creation,” Rich Miller, CEO, Tron Inc., noted in a filing.
Network fundamentals also remain strong. According to a July CryptoQuant report, the TRON blockchain now hosts roughly $90 billion in circulating Tether (USDT). The network processes around $24 billion in daily transfer volume across approximately 2.2 million USDT transactions.
“This surging stablecoin demand reinforces the network’s position as a primary global settlement layer for retail payments,” 10x Research wrote.
Lower transaction costs have further strengthened network activity. Following last year’s gas fee reduction, average transaction fees have fallen 65% year over year to around $0.49.
While TRX remains below its May high, the combination of improving technical momentum, continued treasury accumulation, and strong stablecoin activity suggests downside pressure may be easing.
Whether the token has established a lasting bottom will likely depend on broader crypto market sentiment and Bitcoin’s next major move.
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The post Tron TRX Ends 16% Slide With Two Bullish Signals appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Sberbank, Russia’s largest bank, says it will put new crypto trading infrastructure in place as the country moves its digital-asset activity into a regulated financial system. Interfax reported that Sberbank plans to create a “digital depository” by Dec. 1, alongside client-facing wallet operations for deposits, withdrawals and transfers.
The bank’s approach aims to shift the mechanics of ownership tracking and many transactions away from the public blockchain layer. Interfax said the depository will record clients’ rights to cryptocurrency and handle most transaction processing off the main blockchain, while Sberbank also operates active wallets to support customer orders for moving funds in and out.
Key takeaways
- Sberbank plans a crypto “digital depository” to record ownership rights and process most transfers outside the main blockchain.
- Interfax reports the infrastructure is targeted for completion by Dec. 1.
- Russia’s regulated crypto framework includes central bank oversight and sets liquidity thresholds tied to market size and volume.
- The timeline matters because the law defines categories of regulated market participants effective Sept. 1, 2026.
- Regulatory progress in Russia is unfolding alongside intensifying EU and UK sanctions involving major crypto service providers.
Sberbank’s proposed “digital depository” and how it would work
According to Interfax, the planned digital depository will serve as an institutional ledger for customer cryptocurrency ownership. Instead of relying solely on on-chain records to reflect balances and account entitlements, the system would maintain records of clients’ crypto rights and account for transactions outside the main blockchain.
Sberbank’s state-affiliated press service quoted Alexander Vedyakhin, first deputy chairman of Sberbank’s management board, describing the depository as a core element of the new infrastructure. He said it would track clients’ rights and support transfers by enabling transactions connected to “active wallets” used for deposit, withdrawal and client transfer instructions.
For market participants, the practical significance is that an institutional depository model can change operational workflows—particularly around reconciliation, custody accounting, and settlement processes—while potentially reducing reliance on public-chain activity for day-to-day internal movement and bookkeeping.
Russia’s broader shift toward a regulated crypto market
Russia has been working toward its first comprehensive crypto market framework. Earlier this month, lawmakers moved closer to that goal after completing final readings on a bill that would regulate digital-asset activity, according to earlier reporting linked in the source text.
The framework would grant the Bank of Russia broad oversight of a regulated market. The central bank’s role, as described in the source, would include deciding which crypto assets may be offered through licensed intermediaries and issuing implementing regulations.
Liquidity requirements also feature prominently. The Bank of Russia has set thresholds including an average market capitalization of more than 5 trillion rubles (about $64 billion) and an average daily volume above 1 trillion rubles (about $12.8 billion) over a two-year period. These benchmarks are intended to narrow eligibility and help define which assets qualify under the licensing regime.
Once the framework takes effect, the law establishes five categories of regulated market participants: crypto exchanges, brokers, asset managers, custodians and exchange service providers. The effective date for defining who can buy, sell, hold and exchange crypto assets is set for Sept. 1, 2026.
Why the Dec. 1 deadline could matter for regulated operations
The reported Dec. 1 target date for Sberbank’s digital depository suggests a pre-launch phase where banks and regulated intermediaries build internal rails before the broader participant categories become fully operative in 2026. In other words, infrastructure timelines are starting to line up ahead of the formal market framework’s effective date.
That sequence matters for two reasons. First, custody and settlement mechanics tend to be among the most complex components of bringing crypto into a mainstream regulated financial model. Second, the Bank of Russia’s licensing and asset-selection approach likely depends on firms being able to demonstrate controlled handling of ownership and transaction processing.
Even though the source does not provide additional technical specifics beyond off-chain recordkeeping and wallet-based customer operations, the intended function—maintaining ownership records and processing most transactions outside the main blockchain—implies that Sberbank is aiming to standardize how balances and client entitlements are managed within regulated channels.
Sanctions pressure continues as Russia formalizes its crypto rules
Russia’s regulatory momentum comes as external pressure on crypto businesses remains high. The source notes that the European Union has continued to tighten sanctions targeting Russia and has extended crypto-related measures affecting service providers.
In a Thursday European Council decision, the bloc amended previous measures “in view of Russia’s actions destabilizing the situation in Ukraine.” The decision added HTX—formerly Huobi Global—to a list of 18 entities described as “providing crypto-assets services or payment services established outside of the Union” that significantly “frustrate the purpose of the prohibitions” against Russia. A decision published on the EU’s legal database is linked in the source text.
The HTX sanctions were reported as arriving the same day EU officials announced a prohibition on Belarusian nationals and residents owning, controlling or managing crypto exchanges and digital asset service providers under MiCA compliance requirements, according to the linked earlier coverage in the source.
Meanwhile, the UK government also imposed similar sanctions on HTX in May, citing “reasonable grounds to suspect” the exchange supported Russia’s government through financial services involving funds facilitated by sanctioned entities, based on the linked prior report included in the source.
Taken together, the developments highlight a split dynamic: while Russia is building domestic, regulated infrastructure for crypto trading, European and UK authorities are simultaneously restricting certain offshore service providers through sanctions and regulatory compliance measures.
Readers should watch how Sberbank’s digital depository plan progresses beyond the announced deadline and whether other regulated market players follow with similar custody and settlement infrastructure ahead of the Sept. 1, 2026 effective date for participant categories. At the same time, sanctions risk remains a moving variable—especially for cross-border access to services—so the practical impact on liquidity and venue availability may depend on enforcement and compliance decisions in Europe and the UK.
Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, plans to build cryptocurrency trading infrastructure including a digital depository no later than Dec. 1 as the country brings crypto trading, custody and settlement into its regulated financial system.
That digital depository, Interfax reported, will record ownership of cryptocurrency and process most transactions outside of the main blockchain. Sberbank will operate active wallets for client-initiated deposits, withdrawals and transfers.
“One of the key elements of the new infrastructure will be a digital depository, which will maintain records of clients’ cryptocurrency rights and account for transactions outside the main blockchain,” said Alexander Vedyakhin, first deputy chairman of Sberbank’s management board, the state-affiliated press service said. “It will also facilitate transactions on active wallets to fulfill clients’ currency transfer orders.”
Russia’s lawmakers earlier this month moved the country closer to its first comprehensive crypto market framework after completing final readings on a bill that would regulate digital asset activity.
The bill would give the Bank of Russia broad oversight of the regulated market, including authority to determine which crypto assets may be offered through licensed intermediaries and to issue implementing regulations.The central bank has set liquidity thresholds, including an average market capitalization of more than 5 trillion rubles (~$64 billion) and an average daily volume of more than 1 trillion rubles (~$12.8 billion) over two years.
Once in place, it also establishes five categories of regulated market participants, including crypto exchanges, brokers, asset managers, custodians and exchange service providers, defining who can buy, sell, hold and exchange crypto assets as of the framework’s effective date of Sept. 1, 2026.
Recommended: Bitcoin advocacy group to join US State Department’s ‘digital freedom’ program
Moscow adopts crypto framework as EU tightens sanctions
Moscow is moving to put a working crypto infrastructure in place as the European Union turns up the heat on the country with a package of sanctions targeting Russia amid the country’s war on Ukraine. Last week, the bloc listed cryptocurrency exchange HTX, formerly Huobi Global, in its sanctions.
In a Thursday decision, the European Council amended its previous measures “in view of Russia’s actions destabilizing the situation in Ukraine” to include HTX in a list of 18 entities “providing crypto-assets services or payment services established outside of the Union that are significantly frustrating the purpose of the prohibitions” against Russia. The country continues to face sanctions globally over its war in Ukraine following a military invasion in 2022.
The sanctions against HTX came the same day EU officials announced they would prohibit Belarusian nationals and residents from owning, controlling or managing crypto exchanges and digital asset service providers in compliance with the region’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) framework.
The UK government imposed similar sanctions on HTX in May, saying there were “reasonable grounds to suspect” that the exchange supported Russia’s government by using financial services and funds facilitated by sanctioned entities.
Magazine: Will the US get CLARITY this week? Bitcoin’s new $80K target: Hodler’s Digest, July 19
The spot exchange-traded funds tracking Ripple’s cross-border token started the week strong, hitting a fresh all-time high in terms of total net inflows, but a familiar and slightly worrisome scenario repeated in the following days.
At the same time, the HYPE ETFs have broken their streak and were deep in the red for a second consecutive week.
XRP ETFs: The Good and the Worrisome
Data from SoSoValue shows that the spot XRP ETFs attracted $2.49 million on Monday and $5.66 million on Tuesday. That’s the good news. However, the other side of the coin was what happened during the remaining three business days of the week. And, it was something that has repeated and even accelerated in recent weeks.
The same data aggregator shows that there were no reportable net flows during those three days, with $0.00 pointing at each. Something similar was observed last week, when only one day was in the green, while the other four were at $0.00. If we look back, we can see that 10 out of the last 15 trading days have seen zero net flows.
Thus, even though the XRP ETFs ended two consecutive weeks in the green, a more in-depth look into the numbers shows a clear sign that investors’ interest has dwindled lately. Before these two weeks, the funds were on a massive nine-week streak in which they attracted over $150 million.
Nevertheless, the overall data shows that the cumulative total net inflow has risen to almost $1.5 billion, according to SoSoValue, which is an all-time high.
Meanwhile, the underlying asset pumped at the beginning of the week, perhaps due to the growing ETF net flows, went from under $1.09 to a multi-day peak of $1.16. However, it was halted there and has returned to below $1.10 as of press time.
HYPE ETFs Break Form
The spot HYPE ETFs quickly joined the XRP funds as a fan favorite, especially during one week in which they attracted over $110 million to set a record of their own. However, investors have turned their back on those funds in the past two weeks, as net outflows dominate.
During the past five-day trading period, they pulled out over $8.6 million, following another red one in which the net outflows stood at $7.26 million. Thus, the cumulative total net inflows have dropped from an all-time high of $308.60 million to $292.73 million as of Friday’s close.
The post Ripple (XRP) ETF Inflows Set Another Record, but One Problem Remains appeared first on CryptoPotato.
A post asking whether 20,000 XRP is enough for retirement savings drew heavy criticism on X, exposing how far optimistic price targets sit from current reality.
The debate cuts to a question every crypto holder eventually faces: how much is actually enough?
The $2 Million Math Behind the XRP Theory
A savings threshold is the portfolio size needed to generate a reliable income without depleting the principal. Jake Claver, chairman of DAG Family Office, applied that idea to XRP holdings this week.
His scenario rested on a single assumption. If XRP reached $100 per token, a 20,000 XRP position would be worth $2 million. From there, the math looked simple enough.
A conservative 5% annual return on that sum would produce roughly $100,000 in pre-tax income each year.
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Claver framed the exercise as personal financial arithmetic rather than a forecast. He encouraged followers to run their own numbers, emphasizing patience over hype.
Current prices complicate the picture considerably. XRP trades near $1.10, according to BeInCrypto data, valuing 20,000 tokens at roughly $22,000.
Reaching $100 would require the token to climb nearly 90x from current levels. Its all-time high sits at $3.65, still far below that threshold.
The replies turned hostile quickly. Several users pointed to years of development and regulatory progress that failed to translate into sustained price appreciation.
One critic argued the token should already trade far higher if the technology delivered as promised. Another dismissed the $100 target outright, calling it unreachable.
Why Do Critics Say the Numbers Fall Short
Practical objections went beyond price skepticism. Even at $2 million, taxes, inflation, healthcare, and housing costs would erode purchasing power substantially over time.
For younger investors needing funds across 30 to 50 years, financial planners often cite $5 to $7 million as a more realistic independence target.
Concentration risk compounds the problem further. Holding a single volatile asset exposes savings to sudden drawdowns that diversified portfolios typically absorb more comfortably.
“Jake seriously, I am even getting tired of your crap. I know you are trying to build your business, but honestly your stuff isn’t coming true at all either. You get excited when you see some BS Japan or Oil going on. Price is still $1.10. You say XRP doesn’t need Clarity, yet, it’s still $1.10. If XRP was so great, it should be $20 by now. Why isn’t it? Crypto is crap, it’s all BS, just call it what it is already,” one user replied on X.
The underlying fundamentals offer some counterweight. XRP powers the XRP Ledger, built for fast, low-cost cross-border payments with transaction finality in three to five seconds.
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It functions as a bridge asset for currency swaps, and institutional interest has grown steadily. Spot ETFs arrived in late 2025, while real-world asset activity on the ledger continues to expand.
Competition remains fierce, however. Traditional payment systems and rival blockchains contest the same use cases, and much of the roughly 62.5 billion circulating supply sits idle.
Community responses split predictably. Some celebrate any XRP holding that clears a mortgage, while others argue that positions closer to 50,000 tokens make far more sense.
The disagreement highlights a broader point about crypto investing. Bag size alone guarantees nothing without diversification, disciplined withdrawal planning, and expectations grounded in probability rather than in hope.
The post Is 20,000 XRP Enough for Savings? The Dream Meets Brutal Reality on X appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Morgan Stanley kept Alibaba (BABA) stock as a “top pick” ahead of late-August earnings. Analyst Gary Yu made the call over two weeks after cutting his target to $180 from $190.
That target sits roughly 60% above where BABA shares closed on Friday at $112.14. Thus, Wall Street is telling clients the stock is worth far more than buyers are currently willing to pay.
Why the Target Cut Came First
Yu lowered his Alibaba target in early July. He still kept an overweight rating on the stock.
Other banks pivoted in the same direction. HSBC cut its target to $170 from $176 in July. The bank still maintained its buy rating.
Daiwa moved earlier, cutting to $175 from $200 on June 24. The firm pointed to weak sales during China’s 618 shopping festival.
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What Yu Wants Investors to Watch
Yu framed the reiteration by pointing to Alibaba’s cloud infrastructure, which he described as the largest in China.
“We expect Alibaba, having the largest cloud infrastructure in China, to win share in the current evolutionary AI cycle in China,” Yu said.
The bank also cited cash generation, dividends, and share buybacks as support. Morgan Stanley noted the online regulatory environment appears to be easing, with Alibaba positioned to benefit.
Yet, the bullish calls sit against a run of bad news. The European Commission fined AliExpress 550 million euros on July 20 for breaching the Digital Services Act (DSA).
AliExpress called the fine disproportionate and has until October 20 to file an action plan.
Meanwhile, Alibaba shares have gained about 18% over the past month. They remain well below their 52-week high of $192.67.
The late-August report will test whether the cloud growth Yu describes arrives fast enough to close a 60% gap.
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The post Morgan Stanley Cuts Its Alibaba Stock Price Target appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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