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Polkadot Jumps Ahead of Halving Event

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DOT Chart

DOT rises as investors look toward a coming supply cut, though analysts say the move may be driven by market sentiment.

Polkadot’s native token DOT soared on Wednesday, Feb. 25, making it the top performer among large-cap cryptocurrencies just weeks before the network’s planned supply halving.

DOT is currently trading at $1.54, up about 23% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. The token’s market cap is near $2.6 billion, while daily trading volume has climbed above $420 million.

DOT Chart
DOT Chart

The rally comes as Polkadot approaches a major tokenomics change scheduled for March 14. The network plans to cut annual token issuance in half and cap the total supply at about 2.1 billion DOT. The move aims to lower inflation and make the token more scarce over time.

This upcoming change, called a “halving,” may be one reason the market is paying more attention to DOT. However, other analysts say the timing of the rally suggests it may be driven more by market sentiment than by Polkadot itself.

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“We’re seeing double-digit green candles across the altcoin space. DOT just happens to be one of today’s leaders,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise. “Nothing’s changed about Polkadot, its users, or its usefulness. There’s no new ‘news’ to catalyze a DOT repricing. I chalk DOT’s 20%+ surge up to market-wide speculation.”

Nelson added that investors are speculating that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. “If that’s so, then you’d certainly expect altcoins to rally, too,” he said. “You can see some positive indicators in Bitcoin’s 24-hour chart.”

Meanwhile, Brian Huang, co-founder of Glider, pointed out that trading activity has also spiked, but the reason for the move remains unclear. “The odd part is there is no clear catalyst for DOT surging today,” He said. “Because of this surge, both spot and perp volume are at their highest levels in the last three months.”

Huang added that while the supply change is important, it doesn’t take effect until mid-March, “so today’s timing feels unrelated.”

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Crypto World

Kalshi Boots Politician, YouTuber For Insider Trading

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Politics, California, CFTC, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

A former contender for governor of California has been banned from Kalshi after betting on his own candidacy last year in violation of insider trading rules, the prediction market platform said on Wednesday.

According to a statement from Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Robert DeNault, the politician bet about $200 on his candidacy for governor of California and posted about it on X, leading to a five-year suspension on the prediction market platform and a $2,000 penalty.

Kalshi did not name the politician, but said he is no longer running for governor and is now running for Congress.

The description appears to fit Kyle Langford, a former Republican turned Democrat who is now running for election to the US House to represent California’s 26th Congressional District.

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Politics, California, CFTC, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Kyle Langford

In an X post published on May 25, 2025, Langford shared a video of himself placing a $98.76 bet on Kalshi, wagering that he would win.

Kalshi said the account did not withdraw any profits and that the case was reported to the CFTC.

Cointelegraph reached out to Langford for further comment but didn’t receive an immediate response.

Meanwhile, Kalshi said it also handed out penalties to a YouTube editor who traded about $4,000 on YouTube stream markets between August and September 2025 — also violating Kalshi’s insider trading rules, resulting in a two-year penalty and a roughly $20,000 fine.

“Our surveillance systems flagged his near-perfect trading success on markets with low odds, which were statistically anomalous,” said Kalshi, which, with the help of other traders on the platform, identified where he worked and concluded that he likely had access to material non-public information.

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While Kalshi didn’t name the YouTube editor, mainstream media have widely reported that the editor is Artem Kaptur, an employee of the popular YouTuber MrBeast.

Source: Tarek Mansour

Kalshi, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated platform, said it has investigated 200 cases and frozen several flagged accounts. It has more than a dozen active cases.

Earlier this month, Kalshi strengthened its surveillance efforts by establishing a surveillance audit committee and partnering with crypto trading surveillance platform Solidus Labs to “detect, investigate, and address market abuse.”

Those efforts come in response to an uptick in regulatory scrutiny of prediction markets as they enter the mainstream.