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Polymarket Becomes MLB’s Exclusive Prediction Market Partner

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Polymarket Becomes MLB’s Exclusive Prediction Market Partner

The league also signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC, the first such deal between the derivatives regulator and a professional sports body.

Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange partner and signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, marking the regulator’s first such agreement with a major U.S. sports league.

Under the partnership, Polymarket and its brokers will receive exclusive access to MLB marks and logos, official league data and brand exposure across the league’s digital ecosystem and live events.

The deal centers on an integrity framework that restricts markets deemed to pose manipulation risk, including contracts on individual pitches, manager decisions, and umpire performance. Polymarket will also integrate those controls into its U.S. Rulebook so that all of its brokers are held to the same standards.

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The MOU formalizes a commitment to share information confidentially, with designated representatives meeting regularly to discuss threats to the integrity of MLB games and the broader prediction market landscape. The agreement comes a year after MLB wrote to the CFTC calling for stronger integrity protections in the space.

While Polymarket holds exclusive rights, MLB said it intends to maintain integrity relationships with all other prediction market exchanges offering baseball contracts, requiring each to integrate protections into their own rulebooks.

MLB joins a growing roster of leagues embracing prediction markets. The National Hockey League struck multiyear deals with both Polymarket and Kalshi last October, while Major League Soccer announced its own Polymarket partnership in January.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

The partnership caps a remarkable ascent for Polymarket, which runs outcome tokens as ERC-1155s on Polygon and has evolved from a niche DeFi protocol into a mainstream news source.

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As The Defiant reported in December, onchain prediction market monthly volumes have grown 130-fold since early 2024, reaching more than $13 billion, making the sector one of the fastest-growing in finance.

Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S. in November 2025, and its return followed a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. The platform has since rolled out its U.S. app, beginning with sports markets.

The MLB deal also arrives against a complex regulatory backdrop. Just last week, the CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking signaling its intent to build a comprehensive framework for prediction markets.

At the same time, state regulators continue to push back. Arizona’s attorney general filed criminal charges against rival platform Kalshi just two days before the MLB announcement, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business in the state. The tug-of-war between federal and state oversight remains unresolved, as the CFTC has argued that prediction market contracts should be classified as derivatives under federal oversight, while some state gaming regulators insist they constitute gambling subject to state-level regulation.

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IMC Trading hires Alex Casimo as chief commercial officer for its crypto business

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U.S. lost 92,000 jobs in February, unemployment rate rose to 4.2%

Dutch market maker IMC Trading has hired Alex Casimo as chief commercial officer of its cryptocurrency business, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter.

Casimo started in his new role this week and is based in London, the person said, who spoke on condition of anonymity as the matter is private.

The hire reflects IMC’s ambition to build deeper, more strategic relationships with institutional counterparties and foundations across the crypto ecosystem, with a view to become one of the leading client-facing firms in the industry, the person added.

Both IMC and Casimo declined to comment.

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Previously, Casimo was founder and COO of crypto market maker Portofino Technologies. He also worked at Citadel Securities.

Traditional finance firms are expanding into crypto as client demand, regulatory clarity, and market infrastructure improve, pushing banks, asset managers, and trading firms deeper into digital assets.

What was once treated as a fringe market is increasingly viewed as another investable and serviceable asset class, with institutions building custody, trading, tokenization and ETF-related businesses to capture new revenue while avoiding being left behind in a market that is becoming more integrated with mainstream finance.

The Amsterdam-based firm already has a significant presence in crypto. According to its website, the company trades $3 billion a day in average volume, supports hundreds of trading pairs, and has access to 50 major exchanges globally.

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The market maker uses its own capital, advanced algorithms and high-speed technology to buy and sell financial instruments across equities, options, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other asset classes. By continuously quoting prices and executing trades on exchanges worldwide, the firm provides liquidity to markets, helping ensure smooth trading, while generating profits from small price differences and efficient risk management.

Read more: Blockfills co-founder and CEO Nicholas Hammer has stepped down

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Copper joins gold in broad commodities sell-off. There’s a worrying reason behind it

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Workers roll up copper rods made from recycled copper at a metal melting facility in Yuexi County, central China’s Anhui Province, Friday, July 11, 2025.

Feature China | Future Publishing | Getty Images

Prices for metals fell sharply across the board Thursday as investors worried about the impact rising oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran war will have on the global economy.

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Gold fell nearly 6%, while silver was off 8%. The sell-off extended beyond just those two, as industrial metals like copper and palladium came under pressure, declining 2% and 5.5%, respectively. 

While the selling intensified on Thursday, gold and silver have been falling since the war in Iran began, despite the former being viewed as a safe-haven asset. Surging oil prices have created concerns that inflation will reignite and keep interest rates higher. Higher rates weaken the appeal of the bullion, which is non-yielding. 

A stronger dollar as a result of the higher rates has also weighed on gold, as it cheapens the metal.

“The risks to inflation taking away the Fed rate cuts that were priced in, and seeing interest rate increases across the world, and real rates rising, that has been the drag on gold,” said Peter Boockvar, CIO at One Point BFG Wealth Partners. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at one point on Thursday crossed 4.300%.

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@GC.1 v. @SI.1 since Feb. 27, 2026.

Meanwhile, copper and palladium, after declining at the onset of the war, stayed relatively stable.

But that has changed as growth concerns begin to weigh on these industrial metals. 

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Recession risk

Industrial metals are used in practical ways. Copper, for example, is in everything from electronic devices to electrical wiring and plumbing systems. A decline in copper prices is normally viewed by the Street as a sign of slowing economic growth. 

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@HG.1 v. @PA.1 since Feb. 27 2026 chart.

Wall Street consensus has generally been that the longer the war goes on, the greater is the risk that oil prices remain elevated for long enough that it alters the spending habits of consumers and businesses and leads to a recession

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It’s the “demand destruction” phase of an energy shock that traders and investors are chattering about.

“On the industrial metal side… people are now really worried about the recession risks,” Boockvar said. 

And slower growth combined with higher inflation is a “stagflation” scenario. But while investors begin to make “stagflation” trades, others see the possibility as extremely unlikely.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a Tuesday note that “oil shocks are less likely to trigger the kind of sustained stagflation seen in the past, particularly during the 1970s,” referencing the economic consequences of the 1973 OPEC embargo. He noted that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, while it caused an oil shock and higher inflation, didn’t lead to a recession. 

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It’s a belief that Fed Chair Jay Powell repeated in a press conference on Wednesday. “I would reserve the term stagflation for a much more serious set of circumstances.”

While Boockvar thinks the war needs to end for industrial metals’ prices to stabilize, he said gold can likely recover as focus returns to countries’ rising debts and deficits, which gold typically does well against as a “debasement trade” play. He added that those deficits might only worsen due to military spending on the war. 

And even if stagflation does arrive, head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs Christian Mueller-Glissmann wrote in a Thursday note gold is a play in that environment.

“In case of a continued stagflationary shock, especially if real yields are declining, we would expect more support for Gold prices due to investor demand for real assets and FX diversification,” he wrote.

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EtherFi to Tap Plume’s Nest Vaults for Real-World Asset Yield

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EtherFi to Tap Plume's Nest Vaults for Real-World Asset Yield

The DeFi neobank will route customer deposits into a basis-trade vault powered by Superstate’s USCC fund.

EtherFi, the crypto neobank and Ethereum restaking protocol with nearly $6 billion in total value locked (TVL), is integrating Plume Network’s Nest Vault infrastructure to give its users access to tokenized real-world asset (RWA) yield.

The integration centers on Plume’s nBASIS vault, powered by Superstate’s USCC fund, which generates returns from basis spreads, the price differential between spot and futures markets, across multiple cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ether, Solana, and XRP.

The rollout will proceed in two phases. EtherFi will first re-allocate capital to the nBASIS vault, with a direct integration into EtherFi’s user interface to follow.

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“We’re building a neobank where every yield source, whether onchain or offchain, lives under one roof. This partnership with Plume and Superstate is a major step toward making that real,” said an Etherfi spokesperson.

“DeFi yields are increasingly compressed in today’s market,” said Plume co-founder Teddy Pornprinya, adding that retail users onboarded through neobanks like EtherFi are seeking more sustainable and diversified return sources beyond native DeFi strategies.

Plume’s Nest Vault framework handles compliance, risk parameters, and onchain reporting, reducing operational overhead.

From Restaking to Neobank

EtherFi began as a liquid restaking protocol on Ethereum, allowing users to stake ETH while retaining liquidity through its eETH token. The protocol launched a credit card product in mid-2024, positioning its Cash card as part of a broader product suite designed to let users save, invest, and spend crypto without off-ramping.

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CEO Mike Silagadze has described the end goal as a full financial stack: salary deposits, savings, earning yield, and everyday spending, all within EtherFi. The project branded the concept a “defibank” blending traditional banking UI with DeFi-native yields and non-custodial infrastructure.

EtherFi migrated its Cash accounts and card program from Scroll to Optimism’s OP Mainnet in February 2026, bringing over 70,000 active cards and roughly 300,000 user accounts to the Superchain as part of an enterprise partnership with OP Labs.

The Plume integration now adds an RWA yield layer, extending the platform’s offerings beyond native DeFi strategies.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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South Korea Opposition Moves to Abolish Crypto Tax Amid $110B Capital Flight

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🇰🇷

South Korea is not just delaying its crypto tax anymore. It wants to kill it entirely.

The People Power Party has introduced a bill to strike digital asset taxation from the Income Tax Act completely, ahead of its rescheduled 2027 implementation. The opposition Democratic Party, which holds the legislative majority and previously only agreed to a delay, is now reviewing full abolition.

The reason is hard to ignore. $110 billion in capital flight. Traders moved funds offshore specifically to escape the planned 22% levy.

That number changed the political calculus fast.

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Key Takeaways
  • Policy Shift: The People Power Party introduced a bill to completely remove crypto from the Income Tax Act, aiming to scrap the tax rather than just delay it to 2027.
  • Capital Flight: An estimated $110 billion has exited South Korean exchanges for offshore platforms, driven by the threat of a 22% tax on gains over $1,800.
  • Investor Impact: The move aims to level the playing field for retail ‘Ant’ investors, aligning crypto incentives with the local stock market’s much higher tax-free threshold.

The Mechanics of the Korea Crypto Abolition Bill Explained

The disparity driving this debate is stark.

Under the planned law, South Korean crypto traders would pay a 22% tax on gains above just 2.5 million won. That is roughly $1,781. Meanwhile the domestic stock market protects investors with a deduction threshold of 50 million won, around $35,600.

The PPP is calling it exactly what it is. Discriminatory treatment of 6 million crypto traders.

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The abolition bill goes further than the two-year moratorium agreed in December. It seeks to remove virtual assets from the taxation schedule entirely. The trigger is the $110 billion in capital that has already fled to overseas exchanges where Korean jurisdiction barely reaches.

Lawmakers are not acting on principle. They are reacting to data showing the domestic ecosystem is bleeding out.

The global context is accelerating the urgency. The US is signaling a pro-crypto regulatory stance and Korean lawmakers are watching closely. A hostile tax policy while competitors roll out the welcome mat could permanently handicap South Korea’s digital economy.

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The capital flight already happened. The question now is whether abolition can bring it back.

What This Means for the ‘Ants’ and the Kimchi Premium

For South Korea’s retail traders, known locally as Ants, this is the signal to bring capital home.

The Democratic Party has historically pushed back hard on crypto. But $110 billion in capital flight is a number that forces pragmatism over ideology. If the tax gets scrapped, the incentive to route funds through offshore platforms or private wallets disappears overnight.

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The kimchi premium is the market signal to watch. Historically that price gap between Korean exchanges and global markets spiked due to capital controls and regulatory evasion.

A tax-free environment on regulated platforms like Upbit and Bithumb would normalize volumes and turn the premium into a genuine sentiment indicator rather than a workaround tax.

The path to abolition is not guaranteed. The PPP introduced the bill but the Democratic Party holds the National Assembly majority. They agreed to a delay. A permanent scrapping of the tax still needs a formal vote. The 2027 implementation date remains on the books until that happens.

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There is also a sunk cost problem. The National Tax Service already spent roughly 3 billion won building an AI-powered transaction tracking system specifically designed for crypto enforcement. Abolition renders that investment effectively obsolete for income tax purposes.

The legislative clock is running. Until the amendment clears the plenary session, the 2027 tax date is still legally active.

Seoul either stays a crypto hub or keeps donating capital to offshore jurisdictions. The Ants are watching the assembly floor. The vote decides it.

Discover: The best new crypto in the world

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Bitcoin Rally to $76K Shows Strength but Lacks Confirmation

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to $76,000 revived market optimism for investors, but onchain data suggested that the move may still be part of an early-stage recovery defined by frequent periods of price volatility.

According to Glassnode, BTC price has entered a relatively “open” zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where there’s less resistance.

This range is particularly defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which highlights where the investors accumulated their coins. This means BTC may move more freely in the short term within this range, if the momentum holds.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin UTXO URPD range. Source: Glassnode

Glassnode explained that a more reliable signal lies in whether the broader market is returning to profitability. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed back to around 60%, which is a level often seen during the early stages of a recovery. Glassnode added, 

“A sustained push above 75% would carry considerably more weight as a confirmation of early bull market conditions, whereas continued rejection near current levels would reinforce the bear market recovery narrative.”

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin supply profitability scale. Source: Glassnode

Another key factor is how the market handles the current sell pressure. As Bitcoin climbed above $74,000, the short-term holders began realizing profits at an accelerated pace, with realized gains reaching $18.4 million per hour. 

This mirrors behavior seen in earlier failed rallies, where investors sold into strength, capping the upside momentum. If Bitcoin can absorb this wave of profit-taking and maintain support above $70,000, it increases the chance for a rally into the $78,000 to $82,000 range.

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Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K

Trend indicator remains in “bear” market territory

From a technical standpoint, the broader trend structure still leans toward caution. On the higher time frames (daily and weekly charts), Bitcoin continues to trade within a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that a bullish market structure has not been established. 

For a bullish shift, BTC needs to break above its previous lower high near $97,855 and sustain the price action above that level.

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BTC/USDT on the weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

This region also aligns with the Fibonacci “golden zone” between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, an area tracked by traders as a key decision point during trend reversals. 

A clean breakout above this range, followed by consolidation, will suggest a strong demand and increase the likelihood of a long-term rally.

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CryptoQuant’s cycle indicator echoes this cautious outlook. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains in bearish territory, improving to -0.72 from -1 earlier this month but still far from confirming a trend reversal. 

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Markets, Cryptocurrency Exchange, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
CryptoQuant Bitcoin bull-bear market indicator. Source: CryptoQuant

For a full bull market confirmation, the indicator needs to move above 1, reflecting sustained positive momentum.

An early signal to watch is a move above the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently at -0.23. This level acts as a long-term trend filter, smoothing out short-term volatility and highlighting whether the market conditions are shifting to bullish or bearish on the higher time frame. 

Related: Bitcoin ETF inflow streak snaps with $164M outflows amid BTC dip