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Polymarket Becomes MLB’s Exclusive Prediction Market Partner

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Polymarket Becomes MLB’s Exclusive Prediction Market Partner

The league also signed an information-sharing agreement with the CFTC, the first such deal between the derivatives regulator and a professional sports body.

Major League Baseball (MLB) on Thursday named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange partner and signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, marking the regulator’s first such agreement with a major U.S. sports league.

Under the partnership, Polymarket and its brokers will receive exclusive access to MLB marks and logos, official league data and brand exposure across the league’s digital ecosystem and live events.

The deal centers on an integrity framework that restricts markets deemed to pose manipulation risk, including contracts on individual pitches, manager decisions, and umpire performance. Polymarket will also integrate those controls into its U.S. Rulebook so that all of its brokers are held to the same standards.

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The MOU formalizes a commitment to share information confidentially, with designated representatives meeting regularly to discuss threats to the integrity of MLB games and the broader prediction market landscape. The agreement comes a year after MLB wrote to the CFTC calling for stronger integrity protections in the space.

While Polymarket holds exclusive rights, MLB said it intends to maintain integrity relationships with all other prediction market exchanges offering baseball contracts, requiring each to integrate protections into their own rulebooks.

MLB joins a growing roster of leagues embracing prediction markets. The National Hockey League struck multiyear deals with both Polymarket and Kalshi last October, while Major League Soccer announced its own Polymarket partnership in January.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

The partnership caps a remarkable ascent for Polymarket, which runs outcome tokens as ERC-1155s on Polygon and has evolved from a niche DeFi protocol into a mainstream news source.

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As The Defiant reported in December, onchain prediction market monthly volumes have grown 130-fold since early 2024, reaching more than $13 billion, making the sector one of the fastest-growing in finance.

Polymarket received CFTC approval to operate in the U.S. in November 2025, and its return followed a $2 billion strategic investment from Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange. The platform has since rolled out its U.S. app, beginning with sports markets.

The MLB deal also arrives against a complex regulatory backdrop. Just last week, the CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking signaling its intent to build a comprehensive framework for prediction markets.

At the same time, state regulators continue to push back. Arizona’s attorney general filed criminal charges against rival platform Kalshi just two days before the MLB announcement, alleging it operates an illegal gambling business in the state. The tug-of-war between federal and state oversight remains unresolved, as the CFTC has argued that prediction market contracts should be classified as derivatives under federal oversight, while some state gaming regulators insist they constitute gambling subject to state-level regulation.

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Crypto World

Binance Rolls out Prediction Markets for App Using Predict.fun

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Cryptocurrency Exchange, Applications, Binance, Prediction Markets

Binance Wallet has integrated prediction market features into its app, saying it will cover all trading and settlement transaction fees for users as it make a play for a piece of the $20 billion market.

In a Thursday notice, Binance said it will launch probability-based markets as a feature on the company’s app through an integration with third-party platforms, starting with Predict.fun. According to the crypto exchange, the integration will be “gasless,” with the company sponsoring fees for trades and settlements on the BNB Smart Chain.

Cryptocurrency Exchange, Applications, Binance, Prediction Markets
Source: Binance

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer users the chance to take a position on the outcome of events in a variety of topics, including politics and sports. The latter has put those platforms in the sights of multiple US state authorities who have filed lawsuits for allegedly violating state gaming laws by offering sports bets.

Binance’s integration is the latest example of a crypto platform moving deeper into prediction markets despite some of the more controversial bets on the platforms. Polymarket, for example, has offered users contracts on events related to US-Israeli military actions against Iran.

Related: DOJ and CFTC seek halt to Arizona action against Kalshi

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According to data from TRM Labs, the monthly transaction volume across prediction markets platforms reached $20 billion in January — a twenty-fold increase from levels seen in early 2025.

Kalshi co-founder denies Trump son is influencing US regulators

While state-level gaming authorities pursue the platforms in court, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has claimed it has “exclusive jurisdiction” to oversee prediction markets. Amid challenges by federal regulators to state actions, ties between some of the companies and the current US administration have stoked concerns among industry leaders and lawmakers about conflicts of interest.

In an Axios interview released on Thursday, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour and co-founder Luana Lopes Lara addressed questions about conflicts due to hiring US President Donald Trump’s son as a strategic adviser shortly before his father took office. 

“We have never asked for any favors […] and he has never done anything, any regulatory ask, nothing like that,” said Lara, referring to Donald Trump Jr. using his connections to the US government.

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Magazine: Anger grows over Polymarket bets on Iran war: ‘Dystopian death market’