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Polymarket bettors appear to have insider-traded on a market designed to catch insider traders

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PolySights data shows numerous 'high-conviction' bets from newly made wallets. (PolySights)

Can you insider-trade on an investigation into your own insider trading? Polymarket just turned that question from philosophical to practical.

Blockchain sleuth ZachXBT published findings Thursday morning naming Axiom, a crypto trading platform, as the company whose employees he believed had used non-public information to place profitable trades.

The investigation had been teased for days, and Polymarket had created a contract allowing users to bet on which company would be named, pulling in roughly $40 million in volume since Monday.

The problem is that someone clearly knew the answer before it dropped.

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Lookonchain identified 12 wallets that bet heavily on Axiom before the reveal, netting a combined profit of over $1 million.

A separate analysis by Polysights, a data terminal that tracks suspicious activity on Polymarket’s public ledger, flagged five wallets that collectively wagered around $50,000 and walked away with $266,000.

PolySights data shows numerous 'high-conviction' bets from newly made wallets. (PolySights)

More on-chain data analyzed by CoinDesk tells the full story. The largest Yes holder on the Axiom market, an account called predictorxyz, accumulated 477,415 shares at an average price of $0.14 and is now sitting on $411,000 in profit.

That’s roughly a 7x return on a bet placed before the answer was public. The second-largest holder, an anonymous wallet, bought 109,450 shares at $0.33. The concentration is notable. This wasn’t a broad market full of informed guesses. A handful of wallets dominated the Axiom side of the book.

(Polymarket)

For most of the week, another platform called Meteora had been the market’s frontrunner at over 50% odds, as CoinDesk reported.

The odds swung to Axiom on late Wednesday, which peaked at 46.2%. Anyone buying Axiom shares in the window between that denial and ZachXBT’s Thursday morning publication was either reading the room extremely well or already knew what was coming.

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ZachXBT acknowledged on social media that he had contacted Axiom for comment and conducted several interviews before publishing, making a leak “probably inevitable.”

That means multiple people at the company knew the report was coming before it went live. Any of them could have placed bets directly or tipped someone who did.

Polymarket’s offshore platform doesn’t conduct identity checks, making attribution difficult without cooperation from the exchange itself.

Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” by the findings and would continue to investigate. It didn’t respond to questions about whether it was aware of any employees trading on the Polymarket wager.

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The structural irony here is that the mechanism worked exactly as designed. It just happened to reward the people who were the subject of the investigation rather than the ones conducting it.

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MARA and Block rally while CoreWeave tumbles on margin pressure

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MARA and Block rally while CoreWeave tumbles on margin pressure

Earnings season is wrapping up with a mixed bag of results across crypto miners, AI infrastructure plays and fintech names, including MARA Holdings (MARA), TerraWulf (WULF), CoreWeave (CRWV) and Block (XYZ).

Bitcoin has remained relatively flat around $67,000 during Asia and European hours, with limited movement spilling over into other crypto related equities.

MARA Holdings jumped 16% to $9.80 after striking a deal with Starwood Capital to convert select bitcoin mining facilities into AI focused data centers. The partners expect to deliver about 1 gigawatt of capacity in the near term, with plans to scale beyond 2.5 gigawatts.

The pivot reflects a broader shift among miners looking to monetize power access as AI compute demand surges, following Bitfarms (BITF) and Cipher Digital (CIFR) amongst others.

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TerraWulf is trading 3.5% lower at $17 after its Q4 print, with revenue down due to lower bitcoin production and transitional GAAP optics.

However, executives emphasized that the key story is the ramp in contracted high performance computing revenue. The company has expanded from one site a year ago to five today and expects about 2.9 gigawatts of gross capacity by year end, according to head of digital assets VanEck, Matthew Sigel.

CoreWeave shares are down 12% despite revenue of $1.57 billion, beating expectations of $1.53 billion. The company reported weaker than forecasted Q1 revenue guidance, in addition to an increase in capital expenditure, which raised concerns about profitability and cash burn. EPS came in at -$0.89 versus -$0.68 expected, a 31% miss.

Block is up 20% after announcing it will cut more than 40% of its workforce, reducing headcount to about 6,000. While management pointed to AI driven efficiencies, investors are also weighing longer term margin pressure from stablecoin based payment rails.

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The company guided Q1 operating income to $600M versus $574M expected, forecast Q1 gross profit of $2.8B versus $2.72B consensus and raised full year gross profit, according to Sigel.

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BofA Lifts Caterpillar Price Target to $825 Following Robust Full-Year Performance

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CAT Stock Card

TLDR

  • BofA increased Caterpillar’s price target from $735 to $825, maintaining its Buy recommendation following impressive 2025 financial results.
  • The industrial giant delivered $67.6 billion in annual revenue with 4% growth, while its Power & Energy division jumped 23% to $9.4 billion.
  • CNBC’s Jim Cramer expressed support for CAT’s turbine business but suggested Cummins (CMI) offers better value at current levels.
  • February saw short positions increase by approximately 61%, while company insiders offloaded more than $98 million in shares during the last quarter.
  • Trading at roughly 40 times earnings after a 124% annual surge, CAT faces a consensus analyst price target of $712.52 with a “Moderate Buy” average recommendation.

Caterpillar (CAT) has experienced an impressive rally. Shares have climbed 124% during the past year and gained 28% since the beginning of 2025, starting Friday’s session at $752.81.


CAT Stock Card
Caterpillar Inc., CAT

Following the release of Caterpillar’s full-year 2025 financial results, Bank of America wasted no time adjusting its outlook. The investment bank elevated its price objective on CAT from $735 to $825 while reaffirming its Buy recommendation.

BofA’s analysis was clear-cut. Caterpillar is experiencing turbine demand from multiple sectors extending far beyond data center applications, which the firm believes undermines concerns about potential turbine oversupply in the market.

The financial performance supported this thesis. Caterpillar generated $67.6 billion in total revenue throughout 2025, representing a 4% year-over-year improvement. The Power & Energy division emerged as the star performer, expanding 23% to achieve $9.4 billion in sales.

Fourth-quarter performance was equally impressive. The company delivered earnings per share of $5.16 for the period, surpassing the analyst consensus of $4.67. Revenue reached $19.13 billion, significantly exceeding projections of $17.81 billion. This represented a 17.9% increase compared to the corresponding quarter one year prior.

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Jim Cramer recently shared his thoughts on CAT, stating plainly, “We like their stuff.” He highlighted turbines and power equipment as the foundation of the optimistic investment thesis.

However, Cramer also expressed some reservation. When a club member inquired in January about entering a position, he noted the stock had already experienced a substantial appreciation and said he’d prefer to see a pullback before adding exposure. He indicated he currently finds Cummins (CMI) more attractive than CAT at present valuations.

Cramer also offered criticism regarding retail investor participation, suggesting that Caterpillar’s leadership team should be working harder to engage individual investors — and questioning why an iconic American corporation trades at $749.

Analyst Ratings Split

The overall analyst community remains divided. CAT currently has sixteen Buy ratings, seven Hold ratings, and one Sell rating. The average price target stands at $712.52, which actually falls below the stock’s current trading level.

Wells Fargo pushed its target to $870 alongside an Overweight rating. Daiwa elevated its projection to $790. Jefferies established a $750 target with a Buy recommendation. Oppenheimer moved to $729 with an Outperform rating. Morgan Stanley, however, only increased its target to $425 while maintaining an Underweight stance.

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Wall Street Zen downgraded CAT from Buy to Hold on February 21st.

Insider Selling and Short Interest

Not all market participants are bullish. Executive Denise C. Johnson divested 39,138 shares on February 2nd at an average price of $681.08, totaling more than $26.6 million. This transaction represented a 47% reduction in her stake.

Insider Bob De Lange executed his own sale on February 6th, offloading 22,656 shares at $720.11 for approximately $16.3 million. Throughout the past 90 days, company insiders have collectively sold $98.2 million worth of shares.

Short interest also surged roughly 61% during February, indicating that some market participants are positioning for a decline.

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Institutional investors control 70.98% of CAT’s outstanding shares. Erste Asset Management expanded its stake by 32.7% in Q3, purchasing 33,634 shares. Norges Bank established a new position valued at more than $2.1 billion in Q2.

CAT’s 52-week trading range extends from $267.30 to $789.81. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 40 with a market capitalization of $350.27 billion. The upcoming quarterly dividend is $1.51 per share, translating to an annualized distribution of $6.04 and a yield of 0.8%.

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Suspected Insider Wallets Net $1.2M Betting on ZachXBT’s Axiom Expose

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Suspected Insider Wallets Net $1.2M Betting on ZachXBT’s Axiom Expose

A small group of crypto wallets won more than $1.2 million betting on a Polymarket contract tied to an onchain investigation into decentralized finance (DeFi) trading platform Axiom, fueling fresh concerns that prediction markets can reward people with advance knowledge of market-moving disclosures.

The eight most profitable wallets on the market collectively made about $1.2 million, according to trading data compiled on Dune. The same dataset showed more than 50 wallets posting combined losses of roughly $1.23 million, while two wallets lost about $366,000.

Eight out of the top 10 wallets are likely insider addresses, judging by their onchain transaction patterns, according to onchain researcher Defioasis. “There are 3 addresses that achieved profits exceeding $100,000, all of which are insider addresses that traded only this single market,” said the researcher in a Friday X post.

Top wallets betting on Axiom in ZachXBT’s insider exposé. Source: Dune

ZachXBT released the much-anticipated investigation on Thursday, alleging that Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others had been responsible for insider trading activity since early 2025.

Transactions, Social Media, Investigation, Polymarket
Source: ZachXBT

In an X response to the incident, Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” in the news and that it had removed access to the tools that were used in the alleged insider trading.

Related: Analysts reject Jane Street ‘10 a.m. dump’ claims, say Bitcoin isn’t easily manipulated

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Prediction markets raise insider trading allegations

Insider trading concerns in prediction markets mounted in early January after a highly profitable bet on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro by the US raised eyebrows.

On Jan. 3, a Polymarket account placed a bet on a contract predicting that Maduro would be removed from office just hours before US forces captured him in a military operation, netting the user about $400,000 in profit.  

US lawmakers have since proposed legislation aimed at restricting political prediction market trading by government officials, adding to the regulatory spotlight on the sector.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

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Polymarket faces growing regulatory scrutiny on gambling concerns

Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market, has faced mounting regulatory pressure in several countries where authorities have argued that the platform offers unlicensed gambling.

Hungary and Portugal blocked access to the platform in January, citing concerns related to forbidden gambling activities.

A week earlier, Ukraine blocked Polymarket, classifying its activities as unlicensed gambling under national law.

Polymarket has also been restricted or blocked in several other countries over gambling concerns, including France, Belgium, Poland, Singapore and Switzerland.

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