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Polymarket bettors threaten journalist over an Iran missile report

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Crypto Breaking News

Polymarket has taken action after identifying users who allegedly pressured an Israeli journalist to alter coverage of an Iranian missile strike that became the subject of a high-stakes prediction market. Emanuel Fabian, the military correspondent for The Times of Israel, said he began receiving messages urging him to rewrite his March 10 report about a missile that landed near Beit Shemesh. The market around Iran’s strike had drawn significant attention, with more than $17 million wagered on whether the event would occur on that date. In response to the harassment, Polymarket said it banned the involved accounts and would forward information to authorities as part of its enforcement of the platform’s Terms of Service.

Key takeaways

  • Polymarket publicly banned accounts tied to attempts to influence editorial coverage of a war-related event.
  • The Beit Shemesh incident sparked discussion about the alignment of journalism, prediction markets, and user incentives, given the roughly $17 million at stake on the March 10 date.
  • Journalists reported receiving death threats and coercive messages aimed at changing coverage, leading to police involvement in the investigation.
  • Experts and lawmakers have warned that open war and political markets can create incentives for insider manipulation or abuse, adding regulatory scrutiny to the sector.
  • Interference allegations surfaced as market participants debated the event’s outcome and how market rules defined a valid strike versus an intercepted one.

Market context: Prediction markets around geopolitical events have surged in activity, attracting capital and attention but also drawing scrutiny from lawmakers who caution that such markets can incentivize manipulation or insider trading. The episode underscores ongoing debates about regulation, accountability, and the safeguards needed to protect both journalists and participants while preserving the informational value of these markets.

Why it matters

The episode sits at the intersection of journalism, technology platforms, and financial markets that attempt to forecast real-world events. It highlights the vulnerabilities reporters face when their work intersects with open, global betting markets. Polymarket’s swift action—banning accounts implicated in intimidation and promising to share data with authorities—signals an(self) effort to deter harassment while maintaining a level of accountability for participants who attempt to shape coverage for personal gain. The incident also raises practical questions for platform design: how to verify events, resolve disputes when official narratives diverge, and deter abusive behavior without stifling legitimate speculation.

From a market-design perspective, the case emphasizes how event definitions and payout rules can become contentious when the public narrative contradicts initial reports. The market in question stipulated that a “Yes” resolution would occur if Iran initiated a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil on the listed date, with exceptions for missiles or drones that were intercepted. Such clauses matter greatly as information evolves and as authorities confirm or dispute particular details. The controversy illustrates the delicate balance between price discovery and the integrity of editorial content, especially in fast-moving conflicts where new information can quickly alter the perceived probability of an outcome.

Regulatory and legislative attention surrounding prediction markets has grown in recent years. Critics argue that a widely followed war-related market can create incentives for insiders to profit from confidential or strategic information, potentially harming the market’s integrity. Lawmakers have proposed or introduced measures aimed at increasing oversight and reducing opportunities for manipulation. In this environment, Polymarket’s actions—such as banning participants and cooperating with authorities—are part of a broader push to establish guardrails while preserving the utility of open, decentralized forecast platforms.

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The Israel-Beit Shemesh episode also reinforces how journalism and real-time events can interact with online betting ecosystems. A journalist’s safety can become a concern when gigabytes of data and real-time bets converge with heated debates over national security. In this case, Fabian reported receiving messages in Hebrew from an individual who threatened harm should he alter the article, a reminder that the digital amplification of conflict can translate into tangible risks for reporters. The police investigation underscores that, beyond market mechanics, these threats are taken seriously by authorities and investigated through formal channels.

As the discourse evolves, platforms like Polymarket are likely to face ongoing scrutiny over how they moderate content, enforce terms of service, and guard against attempts to influence public reporting. The balance between encouraging open discourse and protecting participants—and journalists—from coercion is delicate, and the incident adds to a growing discourse on how best to govern and supervise prediction markets without dampening their potential for information discovery.

What to watch next

  • Updates from police on the investigation into the threats against Emanuel Fabian and any legal actions taken.
  • Polymarket’s next steps regarding moderation policies, account bans, or changes to event-market rules following the incident.
  • New information about the Iran–Israel market’s March 10 resolution and how different outlets corroborate the event outcome.
  • Regulatory developments or proposed legislation targeting prediction markets and their handling of geopolitical bets.

Sources & verification

  • Times of Israel report by Emanuel Fabian detailing threats and pressure to alter coverage of the March 10 incident.
  • Polymarket event page for the Iran strikes Israel on market.
  • Polymarket statement condemning harassment posted on X.
  • Emanuel Fabian’s tweet from March 10, 2026 embedded in the coverage.
  • Times of Israel update confirming the missile outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted, as reported by Fabian.
  • Cointelegraph coverage on related Polymarket trades and arrests.

Beit Shemesh episode and the stakes for prediction markets

The Beit Shemesh incident centers on a clash between the ambition of market-based forecasting and the realities of reporting on armed conflict. Polymarket’s market on Iran’s strike attracted substantial capital, illustrating how participants extrapolate geopolitical risk into financial bets. The protracted tension between a journalist’s independence and the expectations of a global betting audience became palpable as individuals on social media and messaging channels urged Fabian to change the narrative to favor a particular market outcome. The prompt action by Polymarket—to ban the involved accounts and cooperate with authorities—highlights a broader effort by platform operators to deter abuse and maintain trust in the reliability of the market data they produce.

Meanwhile, the evolving official narrative around March 10’s events adds another layer of complexity. Early investor sentiment and public commentary can diverge from later assessments of what occurred, such as whether missiles were intercepted or landed as described. The distinction matters for the market’s payout logic, and it also raises questions about how platforms should handle disputed or evolving information. As authorities continue to investigate and as more details become available, the episode will likely inform ongoing debates about the governance of prediction markets and their role in risk pricing during geopolitical crises.

Beyond the mechanics, the episode underscores the need for robust protections for journalists who operate under the glare of online betting communities. It also spotlights the responsibilities of market operators to police conduct and to implement clear, enforceable policies that safeguard editorial integrity while preserving a platform’s openness. The path forward will likely involve refinements to event definitions, stronger identity and abuse prevention measures, and transparent reporting on enforcement actions—elements that can help sustain the usefulness of prediction markets without compromising safety or ethics.

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The broader conversation about how to balance free inquiry, market liquidity, and the well-being of reporters is far from settled. As prediction markets mature, observers will watch not only for accurate price signals but also for how platforms handle threats, disputes, and regulatory expectations. The Beit Shemesh incident thus stands as a case study in the intersection of journalism, technology-enabled forecasting, and the high-stakes world of geopolitics.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Equity, oil and bond markets have freaked out. Bitcoin traders have not.

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Performance of bitcoin, gold and S&P 500 during geopolitical events. (River)

The bitcoin price has remained relatively unscathed during the two‑week war with Iran. What’s more impressive is that its key volatility metrics have also held steady, a sign that crypto traders are less fearful than those in traditional markets such as equities, oil and bonds.

Tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel broke into open conflict on Feb. 28, damaging oil infrastructure across the Middle East and disrupting tanker flows. Analysts warned that the turmoil could trigger massive price volatility and fear-driven hedging across asset classes.

So far, they have been partially wrong.

Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has remained remarkably steady, holding between 55% and 60%, according to TradingView data. Implied volatility reflects the demand for options, so the stability suggests traders have not been aggressively buying put options, which hedge against price declines.

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Traders in traditional markets, however, have freaked out and been chasing those options, as evidenced by spikes in their respective volatility indexes.

The equities gauge, the VIX — which measures the expected 30-day volatility of the S&P 500 based on options prices — averaged just above 20% before the conflict. It jumped to over 32% on March 6 and remained elevated near 26% on Monday.

Cboe’s crude oil volatility index, OVX, surged to more than 100% from 64%. MOVE, which tracks volatility in U.S. Treasury notes, rose to 85% from 73%, hitting a high of 95% at one point, reflecting broad-based market uncertainty. The volatility index for gold, traditionally seen as a haven during troubled times, held steady above 30%.

The divergence between the bitcoin and traditional market indexes matters. Asset prices can be noisy and affected by erratic flows, but volatility indicators often provide a clear picture of investor sentiment, especially the demand for hedging against downside risks. By that measure, BTC traders appear calm.

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One possible explanation is that the crypto sentiment was already unsettled before the Iran conflict. Bitcoin’s price plunged from an all‑time high above $126,000 in October 2025 to the low $60,000s in subsequent months, a drawdown that shook out many bulls and forced others to hedge against further declines.

In that context, the Iran war has been less of a shock to the crypto market than to stocks and other markets, which traded near record highs or were calm in the weeks leading up to the conflict.

According to an analysis by bitcoin-focused financial firm River, the cryptocurrency has averaged double-digit returns over 60-day periods during multiple geopolitical events since 2020.

Performance of bitcoin, gold and S&P 500 during geopolitical events. (River)
Performance of bitcoin, gold and S&P 500 during geopolitical events. (River)

History is repeating itself. Bitcoin has rallied more than 10% to $74,000 in two weeks, according to CoinDesk data.

All things considered, the message is clear: BTC has held steady when it mattered the most. It remains to be seen if the stability persists.

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Hyperliquid (HYPE) Surges to $40 as Whale Activity and Open Interest Soar

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Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price

Key Highlights

  • HYPE surged approximately 10% to reach the $40 price level, establishing itself as the top gainer among the 20 largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization
  • Open Interest increased to $1.67 billion, marking the highest reading since early February and indicating significant new capital inflows
  • Funding rates shifted into positive territory at 0.008%, demonstrating that long position holders are compensating short sellers
  • The 4-hour RSI indicator stands at 70, approaching overbought levels, while the MACD displays a bullish crossover pattern
  • Tokenized assets accounted for 33% of Hyperliquid’s weekly trading volume, establishing a new platform record

Hyperliquid (HYPE) has climbed to $40 following a nearly 10% price increase on Monday. This upward movement enabled HYPE to surpass Cardano’s ADA, securing the position as the tenth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price
Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price

The price surge is supported by robust on-chain metrics and derivatives market indicators. According to CryptoQuant analytics, significant whale transactions, buy-side pressure dominance, and stabilizing conditions across both spot and futures markets are evident.

In the derivatives markets, Open Interest (OI) expanded to $1.67 billion on Tuesday. This represents the highest measurement recorded since the beginning of February, with consistent growth observed throughout March.

Source: Coinglass

An increase in OI generally indicates that fresh capital is flowing into the market. This additional liquidity could provide support for the current upward price trajectory.

Hyperliquid’s funding rates transitioned to positive territory on Sunday and climbed to 0.008% by Tuesday. This shift from negative to positive funding rates indicates that traders with long positions are compensating those with short positions — a clear indication of robust bullish sentiment.

Chart Analysis Suggests Further Upside Potential

Examining the 4-hour timeframe, HYPE successfully breached a daily resistance barrier at $36.51 last Thursday. The token established support around that threshold the next day before climbing roughly 10% through Monday’s trading session.

The 4-hour RSI reading stands at 70, positioned just beneath overbought conditions. Additionally, the MACD indicator has generated a bullish crossover signal, accompanied by expanding green histogram bars that reinforce the positive technical outlook.

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Should HYPE maintain its upward momentum, the primary target remains the $50 psychological threshold. Nevertheless, the October 29 peak of $49.88 could serve as resistance due to concentrated sell-order activity in that price zone.

A brief retracement within the overall uptrend remains possible. In such a scenario, the initial support level to monitor would be $36.51, with secondary support at $33.60, which was most recently tested on March 10.

Record-Breaking Tokenized Asset Trading Activity

Beyond price movements, tokenized assets represented 33% of Hyperliquid’s total weekly trading volume. This marks an unprecedented all-time high proportion for this asset category on the platform, based on Blockworks data.

Tokenized assets also constitute approximately 21% of the total open interest on Hyperliquid. Open interest represents the aggregate value of all active derivative contracts.

The expanding proportion of tokenized assets indicates that an increasing number of traders are maintaining positions in these instruments over extended timeframes.

Tokenized assets represent conventional financial instruments or tangible real-world assets that have been digitized on blockchain networks, enabling them to be exchanged within decentralized trading environments.

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As of Tuesday’s trading session, HYPE is valued at $40 with bullish traders eyeing $50 as the subsequent critical resistance level.

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Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Set a March High

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Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Set a March High

Nvidia shares experienced heightened volatility yesterday, with the price jumping to a March high during the Nvidia GTC 2026 conference, where Jensen Huang made several major announcements. According to media reports:

→ Nvidia unveiled a next-generation platform named after the astronomer Vera Rubin. The new chips are designed for “agentic AI” (AI agents).

→ The company expects total orders for current-generation AI systems (Blackwell) and next-generation systems (Vera Rubin) to reach $1 trillion by 2027. This is double the company’s previous $500 billion forecast announced earlier.

→ Huang also noted that market demand is shifting. While chips were previously purchased mainly for training AI models, demand is now increasingly driven by companies such as OpenAI, Meta and Anthropic, which must serve hundreds of millions of users in real time.

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As the NVDA chart shows, the share price rose above the $188.50 level, but later pulled back, which may suggest excessive optimism among buyers and aggressive selling pressure.

Technical Analysis of Nvidia (NVDA)

On the morning of 26 February, while analysing NVDA price movements following the quarterly earnings release, we:

→ updated the long-term ascending channel (which remains intact);
→ pointed to the negative experience of other tech giants earlier in 2026, whose shares rallied briefly after earnings before turning lower (for example, Meta);
→ suggested that if bulls wanted to confirm control of NVDA, it would be important to keep the price above the $192.50 level.

During the main trading session that same day, the $192.50 level was broken by bears on a wide candle accompanied by rising volumes, confirming these concerns. Moreover, the downward momentum continued the following day, eventually leading to the A→B swing.

Overall, bulls still have reasons to remain calm, as:

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→ the fundamental backdrop remains optimistic;
→ the lower boundary of the ascending channel continues to act as strong support.

However, the NVDA price chart also presents some warning signs:

→ peak A may represent a bull trap;
→ yesterday’s candle with a long upper shadow could also signal a similar trap.

If this proves to be the case, a test of the lower boundary of the channel would be a logical next step. Such a scenario could significantly alter sentiment in the NVDA stock market.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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Home Security Cameras Used to Steal $172M in Bitcoin, Trial Set to Begin

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Ping Fai Yuen alleges his estranged spouse Fun Yung Li accessed 2,323 Bitcoin from his Trezor wallet in August 2023 by recording his seed phrase via household surveillance cameras
  • The cryptocurrency held a value near $60 million when allegedly stolen but has since appreciated to approximately $172 million
  • The digital assets were distributed across 71 different blockchain addresses with no transaction activity recorded after December 21, 2023
  • While dismissing the primary conversion claim, a UK High Court judge permitted the case to advance on alternative legal grounds
  • Justice Cotter determined the husband possesses “a very high probability of success” and advised scheduling an expedited trial

Ping Fai Yuen, a British man, alleges that his estranged spouse Fun Yung Li covertly captured the 24-word seed phrase for his Trezor hardware wallet through domestic surveillance equipment. According to his claims, she subsequently utilized this information to authorize the unauthorized transfer of 2,323 Bitcoin in August 2023.

The Bitcoin held an estimated value approaching $60 million during the alleged incident. Based on current market prices hovering around $74,000 per token, the holdings are now worth approximately $172 million.

The disputed cryptocurrency moved through multiple transactions before settling into 71 distinct blockchain addresses. Court filings indicate these addresses have remained dormant with zero recorded movements since December 21, 2023.

According to Yuen’s testimony, his daughter alerted him to his wife’s alleged intentions to appropriate the Bitcoin. Following this warning, he deployed audio surveillance technology throughout their residence. He asserts these recordings document his wife deliberating about the theft and strategizing methods to transfer substantial funds while avoiding scrutiny from financial institutions and law enforcement.

Law enforcement officials arrested Li and confiscated multiple cold storage wallets and timepieces during a residence search. She was subsequently released under bail conditions. Authorities eventually determined no additional action would be pursued unless fresh evidence emerged.

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Legal Battle Over Crypto Property Rights

This case presents a fundamental legal question: can Bitcoin be classified as property under current English legal frameworks?

Li’s legal representatives petitioned for case dismissal. They contended that Yuen’s primary allegation centered on conversion, a legal doctrine in England historically applicable exclusively to tangible property and incompatible with digital assets such as Bitcoin.

The presiding judge concurred that conversion was inapplicable. Nevertheless, Justice Cotter determined the proceedings could advance to trial based on alternative legal theories that might enable Yuen to reclaim the Bitcoin should his accusations be substantiated.

In an unrelated September 2024 incident, a physical altercation occurred between Ping and Li. Yuen subsequently entered guilty pleas to assault occasioning actual bodily harm plus two counts of common assault.

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Yuen has additionally informed the court of his suspicion that the 71 Bitcoin addresses have been subjected to a dusting attack. These attacks involve transmitting minimal cryptocurrency amounts to wallets for tracking purposes and potentially identifying valuable holders for phishing schemes and additional fraudulent activities.

Judge: Evidence Is “Damning”

In November 2024, Yuen filed for an asset preservation injunction requesting the court freeze the cryptocurrency, formally recognize his ownership rights, and either restore the Bitcoin or compensate him with equivalent cash value.

Justice Cotter documented that Yuen possesses “a very high probability of success,” citing the audio documentation and the hardware discovered during Li’s residence search.

“The transcripts are damning,” Cotter stated, noting that Li provided no justification for the Bitcoin transfers.

Justice Cotter further advocated for an accelerated trial, characterizing it as “necessary given the security threats to, and volatility of value of, the Bitcoin.”

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The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next?

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The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next?

Bitcoin’s price climbed to a six-week peak earlier this morning, touching $76,000 after it broke above $70,000 last week. Despite retracing by nearly two grand since then, the asset is still up by $11,000 since its February 28 low when it plummeted immediately after the strikes in the Middle East began.

Now, though, there are more bullish hints ahead, as popular analyst Ali Martinez brought up a key signal that has led to all major BTC rallies in the past three years.

Funding Rates Turn Negative

The funding rates are periodic, small fee payments exchanged between traders holding short and long positions in perpetual futures contracts, keeping those prices aligned with the actual spot BTC price. When the rates are positive, this means that longs are paying shorts, and vice versa.

Although some consider positive rates to be bullish since BTC’s perp price is higher than the spot one as long positions dominate, Ali Martinez actually believes in the opposite and outlined historical examples to prove his theory. The analyst with almost 165,000 followers on X noted that BTC funding rates turning negative is “a signal that has preceded every major relief rally of the last 3 years.”

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“Market sentiment is currently at a ‘peak fear’ reset. History shows that when the crowd pays to short, the local bottom is usually in. We’ve seen this script play out with surgical precision:

  • Dec 2022: from $17,800 to $24.8k (+39%)

  • Mar 2023: from $20,000 to $30,700 (+53%)

  • Aug 2023: from $26,400 to $73,000 (+176%)

  • Sept 2024: from $58,000 to $104,500 (+80%)

  • Apr 2025: from $94,700 to $111,600 (+18%)

  • June 2025: from $107,000 to $124,700 (+17%)”

After bitcoin’s breakout past $70,000, the funding rates have reset to -0.004%. The analyst believes smart money is “watching for the inevitable short squeeze” and if history is to keep that 100% strike rate on this indicator, the current dip is “the coiled spring for the next leg up.”

Did the Rally Take Place Already?

Martinez’s original post came as bitcoin’s price traded around $71,000. In the following 24 hours, though, the asset climbed to $76,000, hitting its highest price tag since early February. That’s a 7% gain in a day. The question is whether this was already the rally that he talked about, a claim that could have some substance given the fact that the relief pumps after the funding rates turned negative in the past couple of examples have declined in terms of percentages.

In addition, BTC’s latest moves are mostly impacted by the developments in the Middle East, so if something big is to occur there, more volatility could ensue almost immediately. Nevertheless, the cryptocurrency has outperformed all other asset classes, including gold, since the war began, which could be another positive sign for its short-term price moves.

The post The Metric That Preceded Every Bitcoin Rally Just Flashed Green: Is a BTC Surge Next? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Solana (SOL) Price Surges 7% as Traders Eye Critical $100 Breakout Level

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Solana (SOL) Price

TLDR

  • Solana experienced a 7%+ rally within 24 hours, touching $97.67 while the overall crypto market gained approximately 3.6%.
  • The network’s total value locked increased by 25% throughout the past 30 days, demonstrating renewed investor confidence.
  • SOL maintains trading above the $92 mark and its 100-hour simple moving average, with bullish support establishing at $94.
  • Critical resistance points are positioned at $98 and $100, while downside support exists at $92 and $88.
  • The token has appreciated over 40% since hitting its February bottom, as the RSI indicator advances toward 60 from previously oversold territory.

Solana has delivered an impressive 24-hour performance, rallying more than 7% to peak at $97.67 before experiencing a modest retracement to settle around the $95 zone. This upward movement coincides with a broader cryptocurrency market recovery that saw gains of approximately 3.6% during the identical timeframe.

Solana (SOL) Price
Solana (SOL) Price

Currently, SOL maintains its position above the $92 threshold and trades above its 100-hour simple moving average. Technical analysis reveals a bullish trend line forming with critical support established at $94 on the hourly timeframe, according to data sourced from Kraken.

Critical Resistance Zones Emerge

The cryptocurrency now encounters resistance around the $95 level, with the subsequent barrier positioned at $98. The psychologically significant $100 threshold represents the primary challenge ahead. Successfully breaking and closing above $100 could pave the way toward $105, with potential extension to $112.

Conversely, should SOL fail to maintain support above $92, the next cushion sits at $88. Breaking beneath $88 would likely bring the $82 level into play.

While the recent upswing correlates with broader market stabilization, Solana has notably outpaced the majority of alternative top-10 cryptocurrencies during this same period.

On-Chain Metrics Validate Price Action

The total value locked within Solana’s ecosystem expanded by 25% over the preceding 30-day period. This metric, which quantifies the amount of capital deployed within a blockchain’s infrastructure, indicates accelerating platform utilization when showing this magnitude of growth.

Source: DefiLlama

Continuous developer engagement and consistent decentralized application deployments across the network have persisted. These fundamental on-chain indicators have contributed to supporting the current bullish price trajectory.

Solana has appreciated more than 40% from its February trough. The Relative Strength Index has recovered toward the 60 threshold after rebounding from oversold conditions experienced earlier this year.

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Price action has been oscillating within a range bounded by $80 support and $95 resistance throughout recent weeks, creating a consolidation formation that market participants frequently monitor for potential breakout opportunities.

The 200-day moving average continues to reside above present price levels, suggesting the long-term directional bias hasn’t completely reversed yet.

SOL is currently valued at approximately $94.62, commanding a market capitalization near $54 billion, with a 52-week trading range spanning from $70.61 to $252.78.

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Ripple (XRP) Price Climbs 11% Weekly as Long-Term Investors Build Positions

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xrp price

Key Highlights

  • XRP posted an 11% gain over the past seven days, reaching $1.53 and surpassing BNB to retake the fourth position by market capitalization at $93.4 billion.
  • Binance futures open interest increased 59% since October 2025, reaching 353 million XRP as traders add leveraged positions during the uptrend.
  • Veteran holders added more than 351 million XRP on March 1 alone, marking the most significant daily accumulation in recent months.
  • XRP exchange-traded funds experienced $28 million in net withdrawals during the previous week as institutional participation declined while retail activity strengthens.
  • The $1.55 price level continues to serve as significant resistance, with recent bearish price action suggesting potential for short-term correction.

XRP experienced notable upward momentum throughout the past week, advancing 11% to settle near $1.53 as of March 17, 2026. This price action enabled the digital asset to leapfrog BNB, reclaiming the fourth position among cryptocurrencies by total market value at $93.4 billion.

xrp price
XRP Price

Daily transaction volume surged by 125% to reach $3.22 billion as the token breached a critical resistance threshold around $1.40. This price point had capped upward movement for several weeks, making the breakthrough particularly noteworthy for market participants.

This upward movement unfolds against a backdrop of significant macroeconomic stress. Brent crude oil continues trading near $100 per barrel following persistent supply chain complications in the Strait of Hormuz related to the Iran situation, which has now extended into its third week.

Long-Term Investors Increase Positions Despite Global Uncertainty

Contrary to typical risk-off behavior during periods of macroeconomic stress, XRP’s established holders have intensified their accumulation activities.

Data from Glassnode reveals that long-term holders accumulated more than 351 million XRP on March 1, occurring just one day following the escalation of the Iran conflict. This represents the most substantial single-day accumulation recorded in several months.

XRP Hodler Net Position Change vs. Price
Source; Glassnode

This accumulation pattern has persisted throughout the subsequent period, with consistent net purchasing driving the indicator to its strongest monthly reading since May 2025. Such on-chain behavior typically emerges during market recovery cycles.

Retail participation is showing renewed strength as well. XRP futures open interest expanded to $2.66 billion on Monday, climbing from $2.56 billion recorded the previous day. The Fear & Greed Index improved to 23 from 8 the week prior, although it continues to reflect extreme fear conditions.

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Institutional Flows and Token Distribution Controversy

Institutional capital has shifted away from XRP products recently. Investment vehicles tracking XRP registered $76 million in net outflows last week, with exchange-traded funds representing $28 million of that total. Monthly outflows have accumulated to $133 million, reducing total assets under management to $2.4 billion.

Ripple Labs is simultaneously confronting scrutiny regarding its token distribution practices. Industry observers have questioned whether the company’s sale of premined XRP to retail participants, followed by deployment of those funds toward acquisitions, non-XRP initiatives, and equity buybacks, creates an imbalanced value proposition.

Ripple’s Chief Technology Officer David Schwartz has addressed these concerns, though detractors maintain the current structure disproportionately advantages Ripple Labs shareholders over XRP token holders.

From a chart perspective, XRP encountered rejection near its 50-day exponential moving average at $1.55. The digital asset continues trading beneath both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. A definitive close above $1.60 would be required to signal a meaningful trend reversal.

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Binance open interest registered 353.49 million XRP on March 17, nearing but remaining below the pre-correction high of 400 million observed in September 2025.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Approaches $76K While Stock Markets Pause Ahead of Fed Decision

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

TLDR

  • BTC reached an intraday peak of $75,912 before retreating, with the movement attributed to derivatives mechanics instead of organic demand
  • The cryptocurrency sector experienced widespread gains exceeding 5% across major tokens in the previous seven days, marking the strongest coordinated advance since pre-Iran conflict
  • Bitcoin spot ETF products recorded $767 million in net inflows during the past week, continuing a three-week streak of positive flows
  • Equity index futures declined Tuesday following Monday’s recovery, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq futures each falling approximately 0.5%
  • Market attention centers on Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy statement, with rate-hold probability exceeding 99%

Bitcoin pushed toward the $75,000 threshold on Tuesday for the first time in recent weeks before reversing course. Market analysts suggest the price action reflected technical factors rather than genuine demand expansion.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Chart watchers observed BTC reaching an intraday high of $75,912 during early Tuesday trading hours before retreating to approximately $74,372. CoinDesk market specialists attributed the upward movement to derivatives positioning dynamics—particularly the expiration of substantial put options contracts at the $60,000 strike price, compelling market makers to purchase spot bitcoin for hedging purposes.

The critical price point remains $74,400, which previously served as a support threshold in April 2025. Bitcoin’s rapid pullback beneath this level indicates insufficient buyer conviction to sustain elevated prices without fundamental catalysts.

Despite the intraday volatility, digital asset markets have demonstrated impressive strength throughout the week. Ether climbed 13.3% to reach $2,316. XRP advanced 11% to $1.53. Solana appreciated 9.7% to $93.92. Dogecoin increased 9.5%, reclaiming the $0.10 level. BNB rose 5% to $676.

Market observers characterize this as the most comprehensive sustained cryptocurrency advancement since the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

ETF Inflows Signal Returning Institutional Interest

The optimistic sentiment partly stems from capital allocation into bitcoin exchange-traded products. Spot bitcoin ETFs accumulated approximately $767 million in net inflows throughout the previous week, based on data from CF Benchmarks analyst Mark Pilipczuk.

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This represents the third consecutive week of positive capital flows, reversing the trend from earlier in 2025 when these vehicles experienced outflows exceeding $3 billion across five weeks.

Bitcoin has also narrowed its performance differential with gold. Through mid-March on a year-to-date basis, the gold ETF GLD appreciated roughly 16% while bitcoin ETF IBIT declined approximately 19%. However, from early March forward, bitcoin has exceeded gold’s returns by 13.2%.

The 90-day correlation coefficient between these two assets shifted from -0.27 to +0.29 during a six-month period, rekindling discussions about bitcoin’s role as “digital gold.”

Stock Futures Dip After Monday Rebound

Equity markets experienced contrasting momentum. Index futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each declined between 0.4% and 0.5% during Tuesday’s pre-market session after Wall Street posted gains Monday.

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E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

Monday’s advance followed a retreat in crude oil prices. Brent crude settled nearly 3% lower at marginally above $100 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate declined more than 5% to close at $93.50.

Energy markets have exhibited heightened volatility since military operations by the US and Israel against Iran commenced. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated Iranian tanker traffic continues through the Strait of Hormuz, though President Trump’s proposal for multinational escort operations has received no commitments.

Nvidia commanded attention at its GTC conference where CEO Jensen Huang revealed multiple partnership agreements and projected $1 trillion in semiconductor sales through late 2027.

Quarterly financial results from Tencent, DocuSign, and Oklo are scheduled for Tuesday.

The Federal Reserve commences its two-day policy meeting today, with the official determination scheduled for Wednesday. CME FedWatch data indicates a rate-hold probability surpassing 99%. February’s employment report showed 92,000 job losses, while crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel maintain inflation concerns ahead of Chairman Powell’s media briefing.

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NFT Giant OpenSea Delays SEA Launch Amid Market Challenges

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NFT Giant OpenSea Delays SEA Launch Amid Market Challenges


While the March 30 event is canceled, OpenSea will hold a future product update session to showcase mobile and other features.

OpenSea CEO Devin Finzer confirmed that the much-anticipated debut of the SEA token, which had been scheduled for March 30th, will now be postponed. Acknowledging the delay in a detailed update, Finzer explained that the decision reflects current market challenges in the cryptocurrency sector.

He also noted that token launches occur only once.

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SEA Token Debut Pushed Back

The delay stems from a decision by the OpenSea Foundation, which Finzer said has chosen to push back the timeline to ensure all aspects of the project are fully prepared. Finzer explained that the move was deliberate, while also recognizing that it may disappoint users. The exec’s tweet read,

“The reality is that market conditions are challenging across crypto right now, and $SEA only launches once. OpenSea Foundation could force the original date, or we could ensure every piece is in place and make this moment what this community deserves.”

As part of the update, Finzer spoke about several measures designed to address user concerns and maintain engagement. The company will end the current rewards wave. The ongoing phase will be the last. Additionally, the NFT player is offering an optional refund of platform fees retained during rewards waves 3 through 6, which followed the initial Q1 launch commitment.

Users who opt for a refund will have their Treasures, rewards previously issued during these waves, removed from their accounts. For Treasures that users continue to hold, Finzer confirmed the Foundation will still consider them at the token generation event (TGE), independent of historical allocation activity.

Finzer also announced a temporary fee reduction to encourage platform activity. Starting March 31st, OpenSea will set token trading fees to zero for a period of 60 days. The promotion will cover trading across multiple features, including cross-chain tokens, the mobile app, and perpetual contracts. After the 60-day period, a revised fee structure is planned to offer more competitive rates for consistent traders.

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While the March 30th launch event will no longer take place, OpenSea plans to host a future event focused on product updates. Finzer revealed that the early reactions to the platform’s mobile application were fairly positive.

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Controversies

The delay comes amid previous challenges faced by the platform. Last February, the NFT marketplace suspended its new airdrop reward system following intense, sharp user backlash. Launched with the OS2 beta, the experience points (XP) mechanism was aimed to qualify users for the upcoming SEA token airdrop but drew fire for allegedly promoting wash trading, favoring fee revenue over ecosystem builders, and undermining NFT sustainability.

Prior to that, OpenSea’s 2022 breach exposed 7 million emails through its service provider, including those of major players such as Binance’s Changpeng “CZ” Zhao.

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Retreats From $76K Peak Despite Six-Day ETF Inflow Surge

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price

Key Takeaways

  • BTC peaked at $75,991 on Tuesday before retreating to approximately $74,291
  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged six consecutive sessions of positive inflows, accumulating $962.8 million since March 9
  • Short position liquidations totaling $485.6 million within a 24-hour period contributed to the upward price movement
  • Escalating geopolitical concerns involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran continue to impact broader market confidence
  • Market participants are focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate announcement scheduled for Wednesday

Bitcoin experienced significant price fluctuations over recent trading sessions. The leading cryptocurrency surged to a high of $75,991 before retracing to approximately $74,291 during early Tuesday hours.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price
Bitcoin (BTC) Price

This price action coincided with substantial liquidation activity across the cryptocurrency market, with approximately $609 million in total liquidations occurring over the previous 24 hours. Short positions accounted for $485.6 million of these forced closures, based on information from Coinglass.

Market observers attribute the rapid price increase to this liquidation cascade. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of such moves.

“Price movements fueled by liquidation squeezes generally lack staying power without genuine underlying demand, often dissipating within days to several weeks,” explained Dominick John, an analyst with Zeus Research.

Sustained ETF Demand Offers Foundation

Regardless of market volatility, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have demonstrated consistent investor appetite. Monday represented the sixth consecutive trading day with positive flows into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, recording $199.4 million in fresh capital during that session alone.

Source: Farside

BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) dominated with $139.4 million in contributions. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund captured an additional $64.5 million.

Starting from March 9, cumulative net inflows into these investment vehicles have totaled $962.8 million. Throughout this timeframe, Bitcoin has appreciated 12.5%, climbing from $65,960 to roughly $74,250.

Research from Presto Research highlighted these persistent inflows, alongside ongoing institutional acquisitions, as primary catalysts for the rally. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $767.3 million in net positive flows during the previous week, marking three consecutive weeks of accumulation.

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Macroeconomic Developments Command Attention

The escalating situation involving the United States, Israel, and Iran has created uncertainty among market participants. Oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel again on Tuesday, with Brent crude reaching $103 and WTI settling at $96.03.

Elevated energy costs have intensified inflation worries, influencing how investors allocate capital across various asset classes, including digital currencies.

On Monday, President Trump urged international cooperation to resolve disruptions affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Iran had restricted maritime traffic through this critical waterway, which facilitates roughly 20% of worldwide oil transportation.

Santiment, a blockchain data analytics platform, observed that speculation regarding potential diplomatic breakthroughs between the United States, Iran, and Israel helped propel Bitcoin above $74,400 for the first time in six weeks.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index increased by five points to 28 on Tuesday, marking its exit from “Extreme Fear” status for the first time since late January.

The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate determination on Wednesday. While markets anticipate rates will remain unchanged, participants are paying close attention to any commentary regarding inflationary pressures.

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Spot Ethereum ETFs similarly attracted $160.8 million in new investment during the past week, as ETH climbed 3.28% to reach $2,315.

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