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Polymarket ends trading loophole for bitcoin quants

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Polymarket ends trading loophole for bitcoin quants

After Polymarket quietly ended a substantial penalty on liquidity-removing ‘taker’ orders, quantitative traders (quants) lamented an end to their gravy train. For highly sophisticated market makers, that 500-millisecond quote-adjustment period granted them a superpower over slower traders.

Unfortunately for them, Polymarket has ended its time incentive.

Unsurprisingly, the money spigot used to flow from Polymarket and Kalshi advertising short-term binary options on the price of bitcoin (BTC) to everyday speculators.

Read more: Maduro Polymarket bet raises insider trading concerns

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The exchanges feature 5 and 15 minute betting markets on the price of bitcoin (BTC). On their respective homepages, they place those markets in their top three spots on their homepage, and those markets have earned substantial media coverage.

These so-called prediction markets resolve on pricing data from Chainlink and carry high risk for anyone but the most sophisticated traders. One of those risks buried in technical documentation was the ability for market makers to make these adjustments to their quotes, helping ensure they received the most advantageous price.

Rewarding makers to lure money from Polymarket takers

According to several market observers, Polymarket has quietly eliminated its 500-millisecond (half-second) taker price delay.

Makers use limit orders that do not immediately execute, such as a bid price below the current ask price. Takers, in contrast, use market orders or immediately executable limit orders, such as a limit buy order with a price higher than the current ask. 

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In a traditional ‘level 2’ or Depth of Market (DOM) quote, makers are listed above and below the last price of an asset. Makers’ limit buy and sell orders, which cannot immediately execute against other orders, remain in pending status, ranked by price. 

Takers, in contrast, whose orders always execute immediately using a standing order from a maker, create each market-clearing price.

Historically, exchanges have rewarded makers with various discounts to encourage their participation. Trading venues with consistently deep or ‘liquid’ DOM quotes across their trading pairs earn more business from traders who are concerned about the ability to easily enter and exit positions with minimal slippage.

Although penalties for takers and rewards for makers vary by exchange, Polymarket has a history of penalizing takers with a 500-millisecond price delay.

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Quants never needed speed bumps

However, some traders detected its sudden, quiet removal this month. “Rumor has it the speed bump on crypto markets is GONE. No announcement, no changelog, nothing,” wrote one observer.

For quants and arbitrageurs, trades in Polymarket’s 5-minute games just got 500 ms faster. Those trades can also be hedged using Kalshi’s 15-minute binary options or hundreds of other BTC proxies.

For context, there were only 600 maximum taker transactions within five-minute increments. Now, the number of possible trading combinations seems to have exploded into the thousands or millions – bounded only by speeds of connectivity and computation.

“With the speed bump gone, latency is now the only moat,” someone noted.

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Latency is, of course, a double-edged sword. The most advanced, colocated arbitrageurs with the quickest refresh rate on their quotes relative to the price of BTC on Chainlink oracles or even other exchanges can now enjoy amateur order flow from slower competitors.

Many other traders agreed with the implications. 

“Was basically free money before,” observed one trader about the substantial, half-second incentive for makers to leisurely update their quotes with relative ease in computer time. “They did it to invite makers. Now makers are there, they take it away, but still give fee rebate.”

He forecasted another change in the future as a sunset of all incentive programs for Polymarket quant makers. “Next thing fee rebate is gone, and we pay for maker orders as well.”

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BTC volatility spikes as price slides from $85k to $60k

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Bitcoin Core maintainers face shake-up as Gloria Zhao revokes PGP key

Summary

  • BTC fell from about $85k to $60k before stabilizing near $66k, while March 2026 options IV spiked from just above 40% to nearly 65% then eased back toward 50%.
  • Matrixport flags extreme pessimism, shrinking open interest, and persistent outflows as traders cut “tail risk” hedges and overall positioning, leaving liquidity and participation thin.
  • The firm notes that high volatility, muted price sensitivity, and low liquidity have historically preceded strong upside moves in crypto, especially when macro conditions are quietly improving.

Crypto asset management company Matrixport stated in its latest research note that cryptocurrency markets are approaching a critical turning point, according to a report released by the firm.

The report indicated that a sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) led to a rapid increase in implied volatility in the options market, followed by a partial pullback. Bitcoin’s price briefly dropped sharply before stabilizing at a lower level, according to Matrixport’s analysis.

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During the same period, the implied volatility of March 2026 expiry options climbed from approximately 40 percent to 65 percent, the report stated. The rebound indicated strong investor demand for hedging against downside risks during the decline, Matrixport noted. The subsequent drop in volatility to around 50 percent suggested that excessive “tail risk” hedges were gradually unwinding and short-term pressure had eased somewhat, according to the firm.

Matrixport stated that the market remains in a high-volatility environment. The report noted that investor sentiment is extremely pessimistic and liquidity continues to flow out of the market. Total position size has significantly decreased as traders reduce their hedging positions against collapse scenarios, weakening market participation, according to the analysis.

The report highlighted that historically, this type of combination—high volatility, low sensitivity, and decreased liquidity—has often preceded strong upward movements in cryptocurrency markets. Matrixport also noted that while there are signs of partial improvement in macroeconomic conditions, the lack of a clear reaction from cryptocurrency prices may not continue for long, according to the firm’s assessment.

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Specialized AI detects 92% of real-world DeFi exploits

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Specialized AI detects 92% of real-world DeFi exploits

A purpose-built AI security agent detected vulnerabilities in 92% of exploited DeFi smart contracts in a new open-source benchmark.

The study, released Thursday by AI security firm Cecuro, evaluated 90 real-world smart contracts exploited between October 2024 and early 2026, representing $228 million in verified losses. The specialized system flagged vulnerabilities tied to $96.8 million in exploit value, compared with just 34% detection and $7.5 million in coverage from a baseline GPT-5.1-based coding agent.

Both systems ran on the same frontier model. The difference, according to the report, was the application layer: domain-specific methodology, structured review phases and DeFi-focused security heuristics layered on top of the model.

The findings arrive amid growing concern that AI is accelerating crypto crime. Separate research from Anthropic and OpenAI has shown that AI agents can now execute end-to-end exploits on most known vulnerable smart contracts, with exploit capability reportedly doubling roughly every 1.3 months. The average cost of an AI-powered exploit attempt is about $1.22 per contract, sharply lowering the barrier to large-scale scanning.

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Previous CoinDesk coverage outlined how bad actors such as North Korea have begun using AI to scale hacking operations and automate parts of the exploit process, underscoring the widening gap between offensive and defensive capabilities.

Cecuro argues that many teams rely on general-purpose AI tools or one-off audits for security, an approach the benchmark suggests may miss high-value, complex vulnerabilities. Several contracts in the dataset had previously undergone professional audits before being exploited.

The benchmark dataset, evaluation framework and baseline agent have been open-sourced on GitHub. The company said it has not released its full security agent due to concerns that similar tooling could be repurposed for offensive use.

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Fusaka Upgrade Fuels Record Address Poisoning on Ethereum

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Dust attack transactions before and after Fusaka upgrade. Source: Andrey Sergeenkov

Lower gas costs have turned Ethereum into a playground for mass address poisoning, with scammers hitting thousands of wallets daily.

Ethereum has spent years trying to fix high fees, and recent upgrades finally made transactions cheaper. But while they solved one problem, they may have opened the door to another.

Leon Waidmann, head of research at Lisk, noted in an X post on Wednesday, Feb. 18, that network activity is booming, with stablecoin volume hitting $7.5 trillion in a single quarter while transaction fees stayed under a dollar.

“Record usage. Record cheap. At the same time. The biggest divergence between fundamentals and price in all of crypto right now,” he noted.

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But the growth may hide a more alarming reality. A recent study by blockchain researcher Andrey Sergeenkov finds address poisoning attacks surged significantly after the December Fusaka upgrade, which cut gas fees sixfold and made spam attacks cheap enough to scale.

Address poisoning works by sending tiny transfers from addresses that look like the victim’s real contacts. If the victim copies the wrong address from their history, funds get stolen. Sergeenkov says attackers treat this like a lottery, sending millions of cheap transactions in the hope of a few big payoffs.

Unintended Consequences

Before Fusaka, attackers were sending roughly 30,000 dust transactions per day, according to Sergeenkov’s analysis of 101 tokens between Sept. 1, 2025, and Feb. 13 this year.

Dust attack transactions before and after Fusaka upgrade. Source: Andrey Sergeenkov
Dust attack transactions before and after Fusaka upgrade. Source: Andrey Sergeenkov

But after the upgrade, lower fees made mass poisoning viable in a way that wasn’t possible before, and daily dust transactions jumped to 167,000, peaking at about 510,000 in one day in January.

Gas price vs. dust attack volume before and after Fusaka upgrade. Source: Andrey Sergeenkov
Gas price vs. dust attack volume before and after Fusaka upgrade. Source: Andrey Sergeenkov

In just over two months after Fusaka, victims lost more than $63 million, 13 times the $4.9 million lost in a comparable prior period, the data shows.

“There is nothing wrong with lowering fees, but the security problems that cheap transactions amplify should have been addressed before the upgrade. When the Ethereum Foundation claims it is building trillion-dollar security, user safety must be the strictest priority over growth metrics,” Sergeenkov writes.

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Sergeenkov noted that a single transfer accounted for a large share of the post-Fusaka losses, when attackers stole $50 million in USDT on Dec. 19, 2025. Even leaving that out, total losses still came to $13.3 million, 2.7 times higher than the pre-Fusaka period, he concluded.

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Dutch Authorities Call on Polymarket Arm to Cease Activities

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Dutch Authorities Call on Polymarket Arm to Cease Activities

The prediction market’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, allegedly offered illegal bets, including on elections in the Netherlands.

The Netherlands Gambling Authority said it imposed a penalty on prediction markets platform Polymarket’s Dutch arm, Adventure One, for offering gambling to residents without a license.

In a Tuesday notice, Dutch authorities ordered the Polymarket company to “cease its activities immediately,” or face up to $990,000 in fines. According to authorities, Adventure One was in violation of Dutch law for offering illegal bets, including those on local elections, and the company had not responded to requests to address these activities.

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”Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands,” said the Netherlands Gambling Authority’s director of licensing and supervision, Ella Seijsener. “These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by license holders.”