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Polymarket users try manipulate Israeli journalist with death threats, report

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Polymarket users try manipulate Israeli journalist with death threats, report

Polymarket users reportedly threatened to kill an Israeli journalist after his coverage of an Iranian missile strike in Israel apparently jeopardised a number of big-money wagers.

On March 10 Emanuel Fabian, a reporter for the Times of Israel, covered an Iranian missile strike outside of the city of Beit Shemesh as the war between the US and Israel, and Iran raged on.  

However, Fabian revealed today that his coverage was met with a barrage of demands, threats, and misinformation from apparent Polymarket users.

The first email he received, written in Hebrew, asked him to change his report to state that the “missile” was instead a fragment from one of Israel’s missile interceptors.

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The email claimed this was the finding of the Beit Shemesh municipality and Israel’s national medical emergency body. However, rather than retract is report, Fabian, doubled down, clarifying that, based on reports from the Israeli military and footage of the strike, the incident involved a missile warhead and not interceptor fragments. 

Fabian claimed the footage shows an explosion consistent with a warhead packed with hundreds of kilograms of explosives.

Read more: Nigel Farage aide George Cottrell bets US war will last four more months

He continued to receive emails and messages from Discord and WhatsApp users asking him to make the same correction.

Fabian then noticed that multiple X accounts involved with Polymarket gambling were replying to his posts with similar correction demands. 

He deduced that his harassers were trying to resolve a bet on Polymarket, with $14 million worth of volume, that asked if Iran would strike Israel on March 10.  

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The respondents appeared desperate for the strike to be classified as fragments of an interceptor, as that would resolve the market to “No.”

Polymarket users threatened to kill Israeli journalist

Five days after the missile struck, the demands became more threatening. 

One WhatsApp user named “Haim” threatened to kill Fabian unless he changed his reporting, and repeatedly gave him correction deadlines. 

“After you make us lose $900,000 we will invest no less than that to finish you,” one of Haim’s messages read.

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Another said, “You are choosing to go to war knowing that you will lose your life as you’ve grown accustomed to it — for nothing.” 

Haim then began to list specific details related to Fabian’s family and home in another threat to his life.

Read more: Kalshi uses ‘death carve-out’ to avoid paying out on Ali Khamenei ousting

Shortly after Haim’s messages, someone posing as a lawyer rang Fabian and told him that he was now the subject of an investigation into his supposed Polymarket market manipulation. 

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Fabian ended the call and reported the situation to the police, who are now investigating his claims.

Fabian concerned journalists might be weak to Polymarket users

Fabian wrote, “The attempt by these gamblers to pressure me to change my reporting so that they would win their bet did not and will not succeed.” 

He worries, however, that “other journalists may not be as ethical if they are promised some of the winnings.” 

Indeed, he detailed how one of his colleagues from another publication was approached by someone asking him to encourage Fabian to change the details of the story. 

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Fabian informed them about the Polymarket bet, and his colleague confronted the individual, who admitted they’d placed a bet on Iran not being struck by Israel.

The confronted individual reportedly offered a cut of his winnings to Fabian’s colleague if they managed to convince Fabian to make the correction. 

At the time of writing, the Polymarket bet is still unresolved and is waiting for a final resolution from UMA, the platform’s oracle system which allows tokenholders to resolve disputes about various outcomes.

The price of the “Yes” odds changed as the results continued to be disputed.

Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

It now has over $15 million in volume and has resolved to “Yes” twice in the past two resolutions.

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Prediction markets rife with insider trading

Fabian’s story offers a glimpse into the scale of insider trading on Polymarket and tactics employed by bettors to pressure people with the power to sway a market. 

Polymarket and Kalshi both host bets on the outcomes and potential for military action, as well as pop culture happenings and sports bets

Several large and timely bets made before military actions have prompted suspicions of rampant insider trading and leaking of confidential documents. 

Just last month, Israel’s government arrested one of its reserve soldiers and an associate of theirs in connection with a series of Polymarket bets that gambled on Israel striking Iran in 2025.

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The pair is suspected of using secret information to make the bets and, in the process, threaten the national security of Israel.

Protos has reached out to Fabian for comment and will update this piece should we hear anything back. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Hits $74.5K But Futures Data, Macro Signal Caution

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Bitcoin Hits $74.5K But Futures Data, Macro Signal Caution

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin derivatives remain bearish as traders hedge against a price drop despite BTC reclaiming the $74,000 level.

  • Fears of a global energy shortage mount as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, forcing investors into safe-haven Treasury assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) climbed above $74,000 on Monday, following gains on the Nasdaq Index as investors await a keynote from Nvidia (NVDA US) CEO Jensen Huang at the chipmaker’s biggest event of the year, the Nvidia GTC 2026 global AI conference. A drop in oil prices and growth in the US manufacturing sector also helped support risk-on assets.

Despite this bullish background, Bitcoin derivatives suggest professional traders were unfazed by the rally that pushed prices to a 40-day high.

Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

The annualized Bitcoin monthly futures premium relative to spot markets stood at a meager 2% on Monday, well below the neutral 4% to 8% range. This lack of enthusiasm has been the norm for the past 30 days, likely reflecting traders’ discomfort as Bitcoin traded down 31% in six months while gold gained 18% and the Nasdaq 100 Index stayed flat.

While it is difficult to pin down the exact drivers behind the price weakness, it can be partially attributed to a handful of events, including the absence of a clear execution timeline for the US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. Meanwhile, the historic $19 billion liquidation event on Oct. 10, 2025, flushed out over-leveraged long positions and hit market makers’ risk appetite. 

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Furthermore, fears over quantum computing vulnerabilities emerged while Bitcoin decoupled from gold and silver as capital sought safety from the US and Israel-Iran war and signs of weakness in the US job market.

Bitcoin options signal fear despite institutional buying streak

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas.ch

The Bitcoin options delta skew on Deribit remained at 13% on Monday, signaling persistent fear that have dominated the market for five weeks. When whales and market makers avoid downside exposure, put (sell) options tend to trade at a 6% or higher premium relative to call (buy) instruments. The recent rally to $74,500 was unable to change traders’ sentiment.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD stablecoins traded at a 0.5% premium relative to the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, suggesting a balanced inflow and outflow in the region. Heightened demand for Bitcoin usually pushes the indicator above the 1.5% neutral threshold. At the same time, periods of stress typically cause stablecoins to trade at a discount when trades rush to exit cryptocurrency markets.

Regardless of the outcome of the Nvidia GTC 2026 event, investors are closely tracking the development of the war in Iran. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate oil prices held near $95 per barrel after the US struck Iranian military assets late Friday night, while drone strikes reportedly halted oil loadings at the key port Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates, according to Yahoo Finance.

Related: Metaplanet raises $255M and adds warrant structure for Bitcoin buys

WTI oil (left) vs. US 5-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

The Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important shipping lane for oil, reportedly remains “essentially closed,” causing analysts to reassess the risk of a “prolonged global energy shock.” Yields in the US 5-year Treasury dropped to 3.82% after peaking at 3.87% on Thursday, indicating that investors sought protection in government-backed assets amid the increasing uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has been supported by Strategy buying 22,337 BTC during the previous week alone, while US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs netted 11,117 BTC in inflows. Despite institutional appetite, the lack of confidence in Bitcoin derivatives is strong evidence that bear-market sentiment is not over.

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