Ethereum is trying to stabilize after weeks of heavy selling. The price is holding near the $1,950 zone, up around 6% from its recent low. At the same time, the biggest Ethereum whales have started accumulating aggressively.

But short-term sellers and derivatives traders remain cautious, creating a growing tug-of-war around the next move.

Biggest Ethereum Whales Accumulate as Bullish Divergence Stays Intact

On-chain data shows that the largest Ethereum holders are positioning for a rebound. Since February 9, addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH have increased their holdings from around 5.17 million ETH to nearly 6.27 million ETH. That is an addition of more than 1.1 million ETH, worth roughly $2 billion at current prices.

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This accumulation aligns with a bullish technical signal on the 12-hour chart.

Between January 25 and February 12, Ethereum’s price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, formed a higher low. RSI measures momentum by comparing recent gains and losses. When price falls, but RSI rises, it often signals weakening selling pressure.

This bullish divergence suggests downside momentum is fading.

The structure remains valid as long as Ethereum holds above $1,890, as the same signal flashed even on February 11 and still seems to be holding. A breakdown below this level would invalidate the divergence for now and weaken the rebound case.

For now, whales appear to be betting that this support will hold.

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Short-Term Holders Are Selling?

While large investors are accumulating, short-term holders are behaving very differently.

The Spent Coins Age Band for the 7-day to 30-day cohort has surged sharply. Since February 9 (the same time when the whale pickup started), this metric has risen from around 14,000 to nearly 107,000, an increase of more than 660%. This indicator tracks how many recently acquired coins are being moved. Rising values usually signal possible profit-taking and distribution.

In simple terms, short-term traders are exiting positions. This pattern appeared earlier in February as well. On February 5, a spike in short-term coin activity occurred near $2,140. Within one day, Ethereum dropped by around 13%.

That history shows how aggressive selling from this group can quickly reverse moves. As long as short-term holders remain active sellers, upside moves are likely to face resistance.

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Derivatives Data Shows Heavy Bearish Positioning

Derivatives markets are reinforcing this cautious outlook. Current liquidation data shows nearly $3.06 billion in short positions stacked against only about $755 million in long leverage. This creates a heavily bearish imbalance with almost 80% of the market betting on the short side.

On one hand, this setup creates fuel for a potential short squeeze if prices rise. On the other hand, it shows that most traders still expect further weakness. This keeps momentum muted but keeps the bounce hope alive if the whale buying pushes the prices up, even a little bit, crossing past key clusters.

On-chain cost basis data helps explain why Ethereum struggles to break higher. Around $1,980, roughly 1.58% of the circulating supply, was acquired. Near $2,020, another 1.23% of supply sits at breakeven. These zones represent large groups of holders waiting to exit without losses.

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When price approaches these levels, selling pressure increases as investors try to recover capital. This has repeatedly capped recent bounces. Only a strong leverage-driven move or short squeeze would likely be powerful enough to push through these supply clusters.

Until then, these zones remain major barriers.

Key Ethereum Price Levels To Track Now

With whales buying and sellers resisting, Ethereum price levels now matter more than narratives.

On the upside, the first major resistance sits near $2,010. A clean 12-hour close above this level would increase the probability of short liquidations. And it sits near the key supply cluster.

If that happens, Ethereum could target $2,140 next, a strong resistance zone with multiple touchpoints. It also sits around 10% from the current levels. On the downside, $1,890 remains the critical support. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish divergence and signal renewed downside pressure. Below that, the next major support sits near $1,740.

As long as Ethereum holds above $1,890 and continues testing $2,010, the rebound structure remains intact. A sustained breakdown below support would cancel the current recovery attempt.

A US federal judge in Virginia sentenced the chief executive of Praetorian Group International to 20 years in prison for running a $200 million cryptocurrency investment scheme that defrauded tens of thousands of investors.

According to the Department of Justice, 61-year-old Ramil Ventura Palafox, a dual US and Philippine citizen, was convicted of wire fraud and money laundering for what prosecutors described as a Ponzi scheme that falsely promised daily returns of up to 3% from Bitcoin trading. 

The US Attorney’s Office for the Eastern District of Virginia said investors poured over $201 million into PGI between December 2019 and October 2021, including at least 8,198 Bitcoin (BTC) valued at about $171.5 million at the time. According to prosecutors, victims suffered losses of at least $62.7 million. 

The sentencing concludes the criminal case brought by the DOJ and follows a parallel civil action by the Securities and Exchange Commission, marking one of the larger crypto-related fraud cases in recent years by investor count and funds involved. 

Fake trading claims and luxury spending

Court filings said Palafox told investors PGI was engaged in large-scale Bitcoin trading capable of generating consistent daily profits. 

However, prosecutors said the company was not trading at a level sufficient to support the promised returns. Instead, new investor funds were used to pay earlier participants. 

Authorities said Palafox operated an online portal that falsely displayed steady gains, giving investors the impression their accounts were growing. He also used a multilevel marketing structure, offering referral incentives to recruit new members. 

The DOJ said Palafox spent millions in investor funds on personal expenses, including $3 million on luxury vehicles, over $6 million on homes in Las Vegas and Los Angeles, and hundreds of thousands of dollars on penthouse suites and high-end retail purchases.

Authorities said he also transferred at least $800,000 and 100 BTC to a family member. 

Related: Sam Bankman-Fried claims Biden DOJ silenced witnesses during FTX trial

Civil charges and international reach

The scheme began to unravel as regulators scrutinized PGI’s trading claims and fund flows.

In April 2025, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint alleging that Palafox misrepresented PGI’s Bitcoin trading activity and used new investor money to pay earlier participants.

The complaint said PGI promoted an AI-powered trading platform and guaranteed daily returns despite lacking trading operations capable of generating those profits.

Federal prosecutors in the Eastern District of Virginia later unsealed criminal charges accusing Palafox of wire fraud and money laundering arising from the same conduct. 

Authorities had seized the company’s website in 2021, and related operations were shut down in the United Kingdom, signaling cross-border enforcement scrutiny before the US criminal case advanced.

The DOJ said victims may be eligible for restitution and directed them to the US Attorney’s Office website for information on filing claims.