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Prediction Market Aggregator Stand Launches Counter-Trading Tool

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The new tool lets users automate bets against consistent losers — instead of trying to copy winners.

Prediction markets are everywhere. But rising participation doesn’t necessarily transform into profits for regular users.

Prediction market aggregator Stand announced today, Feb. 13, that it’s launching a tool to let users automatically take the opposite position of trades across popular platforms — namely from traders that tend to lose. Edward Ridgely, founder of Stand, said in a press release shared with The Defiant that conventional copy‑trading breaks down in prediction markets.

“Many operate multiple wallets and can easily front-run anyone copying their moves. The more interesting edge is in systematically counter-trading the consistent losers,” Ridgely explained.

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The new feature on Stand allows counter-bets against systematically bad bettors, and also helps users avoid common pitfalls, such as blindly following traders who perform well in one market but lose their edge in others.

Destined to Lose

It’s worth noting, however, that there’s currently no rigorous research quantifying how profitable either copy‑trading or counter‑trading bots are for users in prediction markets.

What the data does show so far, however, is a clear concentration of profits among a small cohort of systematic participants, leaving the majority of retail traders on the wrong side of outcomes.

About 70 % of traders on Polymarket lose money, according to a December 2025 study by Felix Reichenbach of Technische Universität Berlin and Martin Walther of the German International University.

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Fraction of traders with positive total profits over time on Polymarket. Source: SSRN

The researchers analyzed more than 124 million trades and found that only around 30% of accounts ended the period with net gains, meaning 70% of participants were on the losing side.

That gap in profitability has shaped trader behavior. Multiple automated copy‑trading bots like PolyFlash or PolydexLab allow users to mirror the positions of top wallets in real time, usually for subscription fees.

This arms-race-like dynamic has made simple copy-trading almost ineffective, given that the most successful accounts can just front‑run the crowd by reacting to profitable trades faster on-chain.

Prediction Market Mania

Prediction markets exploded in popularity in 2025, kicking off mainstream usage with the U.S. 2024 presidential election. The largest platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, have pushed into mainstream markets with an accelerating number of high-profile media and sports partnerships with the likes of the NHL, UFC, MLS, as well as Dow Jones, X, and CNBC.

Sports, politics, culture and crypto markets are now attracting hundreds of millions of dollars, underscoring how much capital these platforms are drawing.

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Open interest across platforms surged past $1.1 billion earlier this month, while trading volumes also broke new highs, as The Defiant reported earlier.

Stand’s own monthly DEX volumes via its prediction market terminal have been on the rise since it launched in October, reaching $16.44 million in January.

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Monthly DEX volumes on Stand. Source: DefiLlama

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Crypto World

$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

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$80M Hyperliquid Whale Bet Predicts Bitcoin Crash and Oil Rally

Key takeaways:

  • A Hyperliquid whale placed an $80 million bet against Bitcoin and the S&P 500 while going long on Brent crude oil prices.

  • The whale’s history of massive losses and inconsistent signals suggests the trade could fall on the wrong side of the market.

Bitcoin (BTC) showed strength on Wednesday, bouncing back from Tuesday’s $66,000 low after President Donald Trump teased a potential ceasefire in the US and Israel-Iran war. Even with Bitcoin trading above $68,000, one whale used Hyperliquid DEX to place an $80 million bet on a market collapse. 

Traders are now watching closely to see if this whale’s massive position signals a looming Bitcoin price drop.

Hyperliquid whale 0x94d373…c933814 position. Source: CoinGlass

The Hyperliquid whale, linked to address 0x94d373…c933814, carefully built this nearly $80 million leveraged position between Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade includes a $40 million short (sell) on Bitcoin futures near $68,760, a $2 million short on synthetic S&P 500 Index contracts, and a $37 million long (buy) in synthetic Brent oil contracts.

Crude Brent oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The whale’s aggregate position leverage stood at 7 times, indicating high conviction. The Bitcoin futures liquidation price was $80,083, while the Brent oil position would be forcefully terminated above $93. The timing of the trade is curious as S&P 500 Index futures gained 4% between Tuesday and Wednesday as traders anticipate the US and Israel-Iran war dissipating over the next few weeks.

On Wednesday, President Trump said “Iran’s New Regime President” is considering a “ceasefire,” although the conditions to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain unknown. Iran demands reparations and sovereignty. Thus, one could assume that the Hyperliquid whale is counter-trading the market’s optimistic take, betting that Brent crude oil prices will jump while Bitcoin loses its value.

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This Hyperliquid whale previously lost $40 million

This address belongs to a particularly unlucky whale, or at least one who has been extremely unsuccessful since late January. The Hyperliquid whale apparently uses bots for execution, given the sheer number of small trades that build into huge positions, but it still managed to lose $37 million in its first month of activity in December 2025.

The same user was flagged by X user ‘lookonchain’ on Feb. 5 after taking a massive loss on leveraged bullish bets on Ether (ETH), Bitcoin, Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP). 

Source: X/lookonchain

According to the analysis, the whale had previously made $25 million in profits from shorts in multiple cryptocurrencies, but decided to flip the position on Feb. 4, resulting in a $40 million loss. There is no way to know exactly what triggered this entity to place those bets, but the event proves that even whales can misinterpret the market.

Related: Warren Buffett bought $17B in US T-bills: A bad omen for Bitcoin price?

The erratic signals from President Trump regarding a potential full-on invasion and the war in Iran leave room for opposing views. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denied there were talks for a ceasefire but confirmed to Al Jazeera on Tuesday that there was an intention to end the war, according to CNBC.

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Given the history of this whale’s market positioning and its track record of losing trades, it’s possible that the current $80 million bet may fall on the wrong side of the market.