Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones in March Despite Growing Regulatory Scrutiny

Prediction market transactions surpassed 192 million in March 2026. This represents an all-time record as volume and user growth continued to accelerate year over year.

The figures, tracked by Dune, reflect a sector that has shifted from a niche use case into a multibillion-dollar financial market.

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The number of monthly users grew to a record high of 865,411, a roughly 118% increase from 396,642 in March 2025. 

Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets reached roughly $23.89 billion so far in March, a roughly 1,107% year-over-year increase. Nonetheless, it remains around 10.7% below January’s all-time high of $26.7 billion.

BeInCrypto’s exclusive analysis found that sports, crypto, and politics lead weekly volume on Polymarket. On Kalshi, the exotics category overtook politics in late February to secure a position among the top three categories by weekly volume according to Dune data.

The behavioral data also suggests a structural shift. On Polymarket, over 57% of users trade less than $100 per position. 

The average active participant executes roughly 25 trades per day. That frequency mirrors patterns seen in retail stock trading rather than traditional betting.

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Despite the growth, prediction markets face increasing regulatory scrutiny. Lawmakers have introduced multiple bills in March alone, ranging from curbing insider trading to banning war-related contracts.

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