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Progressives Rack Up Primary Wins, Testing Democratic Assumptions Ahead of the Midterms
“That calculus collapsed because of the events of 2024,” Smith says, referring to the period in which President Donald Trump won his second term and Democrats lost the Senate.
Importantly, El-Sayed’s win was not as much of a landslide as polls had projected, something Trump noted in his reaction on Truth Social.
“As usual, the polls were way off on this one,” he wrote.
These polling inaccuracies may reveal a potential blind spot toward progressives, Smith says, explaining that Democrats are likely to take note as Wisconsin heads into its primary next week. Polls show progressive gubernatorial candidate Rep. Francesca Hong winning in the state.
“Hong is in many ways the presumptive nominee for governor of Wisconsin at this point,” he says. “But what we saw last night is a major polling miss that heavily overestimated the progressive candidate, which will make people in Wisconsin raise their eyebrows and say, ‘Well, we all think Hong the frontrunner, but maybe this polling’s no good.’”
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