Quantum Computers Need Millions More Qubits to Break Bitcoin, CoinShares Reports

TLDR:

• Breaking Bitcoin encryption requires quantum computers 100,000 times more powerful than today’s technology
• Only 10,200 BTC in legacy addresses could cause market disruption if suddenly compromised by quantum attack
• Cryptographically relevant quantum computers unlikely to emerge before 2030s, according to CoinShares analysis
• Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures through soft forks while maintaining defensive adaptability
  

Quantum computing poses no immediate threat to Bitcoin’s security infrastructure, according to digital asset manager CoinShares.

The firm’s latest analysis dismisses concerns about near-term vulnerabilities in the cryptocurrency’s cryptographic foundation.

Current quantum technology remains decades away from breaking Bitcoin’s encryption protocols. CoinShares estimates only 1.7 million BTC faces potential exposure, representing 8% of total supply.

The research suggests institutional investors should view quantum risks as manageable engineering considerations rather than existential crises.

Technology Requires Decades Before Becoming Cryptographically Relevant

CoinShares’ analysis reveals breaking Bitcoin’s secp256k1 encryption demands quantum systems with millions of logical qubits.

Current quantum computers operate at approximately 105 qubits, falling dramatically short of required thresholds.

Source: CoinShares

Researchers estimate attackers would need machines 100,000 times more powerful than today’s largest quantum systems.

Reversing a public key within one day requires 13 million physical qubits and fault tolerance levels not yet achieved.

Breaking encryption within one hour would demand quantum computers 3 million times more advanced than current capabilities.

Each additional qubit makes maintaining system coherence exponentially more difficult, according to technical experts.

Cybersecurity firm Ledger’s Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet provided expert perspective on the technical challenges facing quantum development.

Speaking to CoinShares, Guillemet emphasized the massive scale required for cryptographic attacks. “To break current asymmetric cryptography, one would need something in the order of millions of qubits. Willow, Google’s current computer, is 105 qubits. And as soon as you add one more qubit, it becomes exponentially more difficult to maintain the coherence system,” Guillemet confirmed.

CoinShares projects cryptographically relevant quantum computers may not emerge until the 2030s or beyond. Long-term attacks on vulnerable addresses could take years to complete even after technology matures.

Short-term mempool attacks would require computations finishing in under 10 minutes, remaining infeasible for decades ahead.

Limited Vulnerability Concentrates in Legacy Address Formats

The digital asset manager’s research identifies exposure primarily in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key addresses holding roughly 1.6 million BTC.

Modern address formats including Pay-to-Public-Key-Hash and Pay-to-Script-Hash conceal public keys behind cryptographic hashes. These contemporary formats maintain security until owners actively spend their funds.

CoinShares determined only 10,200 BTC sit in outputs potentially causing market disruption if compromised suddenly.

Source: CoinShares

The remaining vulnerable coins distribute across 32,607 individual outputs of approximately 50 BTC each. Breaking into these addresses would require millennia even under optimistic quantum advancement scenarios.

Bitcoin’s security framework relies on elliptic curve algorithms for authorization and SHA-256 hashing for protection.

Quantum algorithms cannot alter Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply cap or bypass proof-of-work validation requirements.

Grover’s algorithm reduces SHA-256 security effectively but brute-force attacks remain computationally impractical.

Renowned cryptographer Dr. Adam Back addressed Bitcoin’s capacity for defensive evolution in response to future quantum threats.

The Blockstream CEO and Bitcoin contributor explained the network’s adaptability to CoinShares. “Bitcoin can adopt post-quantum signatures. Schnorr signatures paved the way for more upgrades, and Bitcoin can continue evolving defensively,” Back told CoinShares.

Users retain sufficient time to migrate funds voluntarily to quantum-resistant addresses. Market impact appears minimal, with vulnerable coins likely resembling routine transactions rather than systemic shocks.