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Quantum Fears, Not Jane Street, Behind Bitcoin Drop

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How Real Is the Threat?

Bitcoin’s (BTC) downturn has spurred conspiracy theories around alleged market manipulation by firms. However, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), Matt Hougan, argues that the primary reasons are more straightforward.

This narrative highlights the ongoing debate about what drives major crypto market moves, whether it’s institutional strategies, technological threats, or fundamental market cycles.

Why is Bitcoin’s Price Dropping?

Hougan addressed widespread speculation on social media that Bitcoin’s drop was the result of coordinated moves. BeInCrypto previously reported that some users made allegations against Binance.

More recently, some community members pointed to recurring patterns such as the alleged “10 AM Bitcoin dump” by Jane Street. The executive dismissed these narratives directly, calling the actual explanation “far more boring” than the theories suggest.

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“The conspiracy theories are wild. First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and. today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else,” he said.

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Hougan said the “real reason Bitcoin is down” is that long-term holders have been reducing exposure. According to him, investors cut positions by selling spot Bitcoin, closing leveraged trades, and writing covered calls, creating downward pressure on the price.

The Bitwise CIO attributed selling behavior to three factors:

  • The four-year market cycle theory.
  • Concerns surrounding quantum computing.
  • Capital rotation from crypto into artificial intelligence (AI) startups.

The quantum computing discussion has gained traction in the crypto community recently. While MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor recently downplayed concerns about quantum risks, some investors remain cautious.

Kevin O’Leary, the Canadian businessman and Shark Tank investor, has warned that institutional investors are capping Bitcoin allocations at around 3% until the industry demonstrates a credible solution to quantum vulnerabilities. Jefferies’ global head of equity strategy, Christopher Wood, went further, removing a 10% Bitcoin allocation from the model portfolio over the same concerns.

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Crypto Winter’s Timeline and Prospects for Recovery

Meanwhile, Hougan added that most of the selling is likely complete. He claimed that Bitcoin is in the “process of bottoming” and could eventually reach new all-time highs. According to him,

“This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring.”

Hougan previously stated that the current crypto winter began in January 2025, and given the 13-month historical duration, the end could be near.

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On-chain analyst Willy Woo offered a more nuanced view. He said the recent sell-off appears exhausted but cautioned that deteriorating spot and futures liquidity could cap any near-term rebound.

Woo’s timeline places the end of bearish conditions in Q4 2026, with bullish momentum potentially returning in Q1 or Q2 2027.

“~45k would be a typical bear market bottom. BTC has only ever existed in a secular global macro bull market 2009-2026. If global macro breaks down, then 30k is the fall back level of support, 16k as the final line to maintain BTC’s bull trend,” Woo wrote.

The distance between these timelines reflects a broader uncertainty about where exactly the market sits in its cycle. What analysts broadly agree on is that Bitcoin’s current weakness reflects structural and psychological forces, not manipulation.

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Crypto World

CoreWeave signs multi-year Anthropic deal as AI demand lifts cloud business

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Source: Yahoo Finance

CoreWeave has signed a multi-year agreement with Anthropic to support workloads for the Claude family of AI models. 

Summary

  • CoreWeave signed a multi-year Anthropic agreement to support Claude AI workloads across its data centers.
  • The company said it now serves nine major developers of large language models.
  • AI demand is drawing miners away as lower margins pressure traditional Bitcoin mining operations worldwide.

The deal adds another major customer to CoreWeave’s cloud business as the company expands its role in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

CoreWeave said Anthropic will use its cloud data centers to run AI workloads tied to Claude models. The company added that the agreement will roll out in phases and may grow over time as demand increases.

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The announcement gave investors a fresh look at CoreWeave’s position in the AI sector. The company said the new agreement means it now serves nine of the 10 major developers of large language models.

CoreWeave shares rose more than 10% on Friday after the company announced the deal. The stock traded at around $102 at press time, showing a strong reaction from investors to the latest customer win.

Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Yahoo Finance

The agreement came shortly after CoreWeave completed an $8.5 billion capital raise led by Meta Platforms. The financing was tied to deployed computing capacity and expected cash flows rather than graphics processing unit hardware, marking a different structure from older crypto mining funding models.

Moreover, CoreWeave shifted away from crypto mining and rebranded as an AI infrastructure company in 2019. The change came after mining economics weakened following the 2018 crypto market downturn.

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That transition has become more relevant as more mining firms look at AI workloads for new revenue. Rising energy costs, lower block rewards, and weaker crypto prices have continued to pressure Bitcoin miners.

AI demand draws attention from miners

CoinShares said up to 20% of Bitcoin miners are now unprofitable in the current market. The report shows how tighter margins have made traditional mining harder to sustain for many operators.

Some firms are now looking to AI computing as a stronger use of power and hardware. Market analyst Ran Neuner noted

”Both industries compete for the same thing: electricity, and right now, AI is willing to pay much more for it.” 

His comment reflects a wider shift as miners weigh whether AI can offer steadier returns than crypto mining.

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Arizona Judge Blocks Gambling Enforcement Against Kalshi Contracts

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Arizona Judge Blocks Gambling Enforcement Against Kalshi Contracts

A federal judge in Arizona has temporarily barred state officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, siding with the CFTC.

A federal judge in Arizona has temporarily barred state officials from enforcing gambling laws against Kalshi, siding with US regulators in a growing dispute over how event-based trading products should be classified.

In an order issued on Friday, Judge Michael Liburdi of the US District Court for the District of Arizona granted a request from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the federal government to halt any state-level action targeting contracts listed on CFTC-regulated markets .

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The ruling centers on whether Kalshi’s “event contracts” fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling statutes. Last month, Arizona authorities sought to pursue enforcement against Kalshi under local gambling rules, but the CFTC asked a court order on Wednesday to stop the action.

The court said that the CFTC is likely to succeed in arguing that such contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act, placing them within federal jurisdiction. The law grants the agency exclusive authority over swaps traded on designated contract markets.

Related: Prediction market users await Artemis II mission splashdown

Court halts Arizona enforcement against Kalshi

As part of the decision, Arizona officials are temporarily prohibited from initiating or continuing civil or criminal enforcement tied to Kalshi’s event contracts on regulated exchanges .

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The restraining order will remain in effect until April 24, while the court considers whether to issue a longer-term preliminary injunction.

Kalshi notional volume. Source: Kalshidata

The case adds to a broader debate over prediction markets in the United States, particularly as regulators and states clash over whether such products resemble financial instruments or online betting. Last month, Utah lawmakers also passed a bill targeting Kalshi and Polymarket that classifies proposition-style bets on in-game events as gambling, aiming to block such offerings in the state.

Related: US appeals court upholds preventing New Jersey enforcement against Kalshi

Nevada judge extends ban on Kalshi

Last week, a Nevada judge extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the products amount to unlicensed gambling.

The court found that the platform’s offerings closely resemble traditional sports betting. The judge said there is no meaningful distinction between placing a wager through a sportsbook and buying a contract tied to an event outcome, concluding that such activity falls under Nevada’s gaming laws.

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