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Relief Rally or Trend Reversal? ETH At a Crossroads After 20% Surge

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Relief Rally or Trend Reversal? ETH At a Crossroads After 20% Surge

Ethereum has staged a notable rebound from the recent capitulation low near the mid-$1,700s, but the broader structure remains corrective after months of persistent downside.

The current advance looks more like a short-term relief rally within an established downtrend than a confirmed trend reversal, so the focus is on whether the price can reclaim key resistance zones and invalidate the series of lower highs that has dominated since late 2025.

Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, ETH continues to trade inside a well-defined descending channel, with the latest sell-off driving price from above the $3,000 mark down to the $1,700–$1,800 demand region near the lower boundary.

The bounce from this support has pushed RSI out of oversold territory and carried the price back toward the mid-line of the channel, but ETH still sits below the major resistance cluster formed by the $2,300–$2,400 supply zone, while the declining 100-day (yellow) and 200-day (orange) moving averages remain overhead.

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As long as the channel remains intact and these resistances cap the market, the dominant trend points lower, and any rallies into that band are best viewed as tests of supply rather than evidence of a completed bottom.

ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows the rebound in greater detail: ETH has recovered sharply from the $1,800 area and is now pressing into the horizontal resistance level at the recent prominent high around $2,150. Short-term momentum has improved, with the RSI breaking out from a prolonged sub-40 regime and now printing an overbought signal.

Yet, the market is effectively range-bound between the $1,750–$1,800 support floor and the $2,150 ceiling. A clean breakout and consolidation above the latter would open room toward $2,300–$2,400, whereas a failure here followed by a return below $2,000 would suggest that the rebound is losing steam and that a re-test of the recent lows at $1,700 remains likely.

On-Chain Analysis

On-chain data from the exchange reserve metric indicate that the amount of ETH held on centralized exchanges has been trending down for many months and is now near multi-year lows. This structural decline in exchange balances, even as price has weakened, implies that a growing share of supply is being moved off-exchange, whether into self-custody, staking, or other long-term holdings, reducing the immediate pool of coins available for spot selling.

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While this does not guarantee an imminent reversal, it is generally more consistent with an environment of underlying accumulation than one of broad distribution, and it suggests that, once the current downtrend exhausts, the reduced exchange supply could amplify the impact of renewed demand on the price.

 

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Crypto World

Toncoin (TON) price heavily oversold as Telegram introduces Vaults in TON Wallet

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Toncoin (TON) price heavily oversold as Telegram introduces Vaults in TON Wallet
  • The TON Wallet Vaults will let users earn yield on BTC, ETH, and USDT.
  • Toncoin (TON) is deeply oversold, trading near $1.29 with bearish momentum.
  • The key levels to watch are the support around $1.23–$1.26 and the resistance around $1.41–$2.02.

Toncoin (TON) cryptocurrency has faced a sharp decline even as Telegram rolls out its new Vault feature within the TON Wallet.

The launch of “Vault” in TON Wallet allows users to earn yield on Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Tether (USDT) without leaving the app.

Vaults are self-custodial, meaning users retain control of their private keys and assets while participating in decentralised earning strategies.

This integration of decentralised finance (DeFi) into a widely used messenger app marks one of the most accessible on-ramps to DeFi for everyday users.

The TON Wallet uses a combination of DeFi protocols to generate yield behind the scenes.

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Morpho provides the lending backbone, while the TON Applications Chain executes transactions, and Re7 manages risk and strategy design.

Users simply interact through the Telegram interface, making the process seamless and user-friendly.

Toncoin market reaction

Despite the positive news, Toncoin’s market performance has been under pressure.

The cryptocurrency has dropped to $1.29, down 3.6% over 24 hours.

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This decline aligns with a broader market-wide risk-off rotation.

The total crypto market cap fell 2.43%, and sentiment remains in extreme fear, with the Fear & Greed Index at 16.

Notably, altcoins are underperforming Bitcoin, and Toncoin has moved in line with the market.

TON price technical analysis

Technical indicators show a bearish trend.

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The price has broken both the 7-day and 30-day simple moving averages, confirming downward momentum.

In addition, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads 26.42, indicating deeply oversold conditions.

The selling volume has also increased by almost 30%, showing persistent pressure despite the oversold state.

Looking at the historical chart movements, the key support lies between $1.23 and $1.30, and the Fibonacci levels highlight this zone as critical for potential short-term rebounds.

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A bounce could occur if buyers step in at these levels, especially if Bitcoin stabilises after its recent decline.

CoinLore’s analysis highlights additional support at $1.06 and a secondary zone near $0.8280.

On the upside, the immediate resistance is at $1.41, $1.79, and $2.02, marking key thresholds for traders to watch.

Traders should focus on high-volume rejection or acceptance around the $1.26–$1.30 range to gauge the next move.

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Toncoin price prediction

With the introduction of Vaults, TON now combines utility and DeFi access, which could support demand if broader market conditions improve.

If the Toncoin price holds above the $1.23–$1.26 support zone, a short-term rebound toward the 7-day SMA at $1.33 could be possible.

Otherwise, a break below $1.23 may open the path to $1.14, where further downside could extend toward $1.06.

But the oversold RSI suggest a potential bounce, although caution is advised, as the market remains under pressure.

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In case of a rebound, clearing the $1.41 resistance would signal strength and potentially push TON toward $1.79 and $2.02.

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Polymarket User Gains $400K Betting on ZachXBT Investigation

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Transactions, Social Media, Investigation, Polymarket

As US policymakers scrutinize prediction markets platforms, many Polymarket users won bets over speculation as to which insider trading an online sleuth had exposed.

Polymarket users betting on an employee at trading platform Axiom as the target of an insider trading investigation by ZachXBT were rewarded after the crypto sleuth announced the results on social media to his 977,500 followers.

In a Thursday X post, ZachXBT said Axiom employee Broox Bauer and others allegedly were responsible for insider trading activity at the company “since early 2025.” According to the pseudonymous onchain investigator, Bauer allegedly used internal tools “to lookup sensitive user details to insider trade by tracking private wallet activity.”

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Transactions, Social Media, Investigation, Polymarket
Source: ZachXBT

ZachXBT shared audio clips related to the investigation, in which an individual he said was Bauer claimed he could track Axiom users. In an X post following the announcement, Axiom said it was “shocked and disappointed” in the news.

“We have removed access to these tools and will continue to investigate and hold the offending parties responsible,” said Axiom. “This does not represent us as a team, we have always tried to put the user first.”

The investigation was the latest by the online sleuth, known in the industry for uncovering scams, hacks and instances of insider trading or other unscrupulous activities. Polymarket users bet nearly $40 million leading up to today’s reveal speculating that Axiom would be the target of the probe.

Related: Kalshi bans US politician over alleged insider trading violation

One Polymarket user, who placed separate bets on a similar event contract, profited by about $400,000. Others traded more than $9.7 million on the platform’s “Which crypto company will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?” contract, winning their bets.

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Prediction platforms under scrutiny in US for state-federal divide on enforcement

Last week, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig said that the federal regulator had “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets, pushing back against several state-level authorities targeting platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi over sports betting. The CFTC chair warned that any state-level entities challenging the federal agency would be met in court.

Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns