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Retail traders fare worse on prediction markets than sportsbooks

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Retail traders fare worse on prediction markets than sportsbooks

Prediction markets are exciting, but they’re not reliable wealth builders for retail users.

Research by Citizens shows that retail prediction market users are losing more money than legal sports bettors, with the sharpest traders and market makers capturing returns on the other side of their flow which. The research note also reveals the platforms are drawing a younger demographic than traditional sportsbooks.

The median return for a prediction market user was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, compared with -5% for sports book users over the same period, Citizens JMP Securities analyst Jordan Bender wrote, citing transaction data from analytics company Juice Reel.

Individuals trading more than $500,000 on prediction markets generated a median ROI of +2.6%, consistent with sharp-bettor benchmarks validated by professional players. Every cohort below that level was negative, sliding to -26.8% for users trading less than $100.

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No cohort within legal sports betting was profitable either, but the decay is less severe: the $500,000-plus sports betting cohort posted -0.6%, and the smallest accounts came in at -29.3%.

One of the major differences between the two platforms is who is on the other side of the trade.

Prediction markets do not limit or ban profitable users the way regulated sportsbooks do, concentrating informed flow on the platforms. That flips the traditional model. In sportsbooks, the house manages risk and filters out winning players. In prediction markets, retail traders are directly exposed to professionals, market makers, and high-volume participants who consistently take the other side of less informed flow.

Two professional bettors on a Citizens JMP call last week said prediction markets offer a more attractive path to positive returns precisely because retail users provide the liquidity, the note reads.

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Are prediction markets a threat to online gambling?

Gaming CEOs have dismissed the threat of prediction markets, according to the Citizens JMP report, which compiled executive commentary from 4Q25 earnings calls.

DraftKings’ Jason Robins said prediction markets are not materially incremental to existing customers. Flutter’s Peter Jackson said the company found no evidence of material cannibalization. BetMGM’s Adam Greenblat estimated a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage impact on betting revenue. Citizens JMP’s own estimate is around 5%.

The bigger issue may not be cannibalization but acquisition. About 24% of Kalshi users are under 25, with a median age of 31, compared with just 7% for DraftKings and FanDuel, where the median age is closer to 35, according to Sensor Tower data cited in the report. Roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue comes from users over 30, the report said.

FanDuel and DraftKings downloads fell 18% and 13% year-over-year from September 2025 through February 2026, per Sensor Tower data cited by Citizens JMP. Over the same stretch, Kalshi logged 6.3 million downloads.

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Prediction markets may not be pulling existing sportsbook users away. They may be intercepting the next generation before they ever download DraftKings.

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Crypto World

Enlivex raises $21M to back Rain token treasury in prediction market

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Crypto Breaking News

Non-crypto company Enlivex Therapeutics is expanding its exposure to Rain (RAIN), the token tied to a decentralized prediction market platform. The firm secured a $21 million debt facility from The Lind Partners to finance the purchase of additional Rain tokens and extend its option on a much larger tranche. In a Sunday move, Enlivex exercised an option to acquire about 3 billion RAIN tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million, and the agreement extends the right to purchase a further 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price through December 2027. The financing is described by the company as a key component of its broader treasury strategy around Rain-linked assets.

Enlivex says the arrangement supports its operating plan while broadening its investor appeal through a diversified balance sheet. The Rain treasury’s value is closely tied to Rain’s decentralized prediction market platform, which operates with a built-in 2.5% fee that automatically buys back and burns RAIN tokens in an effort to bolster tokenomics through supply-demand dynamics.

Key takeaways

  • Enlivex exercises an option to buy 3 billion Rain tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million, and extends the option to purchase an additional 272.1 billion RAIN tokens through December 2027.
  • The Rain treasury gains exposure to tokens that participate in a platform whose fee mechanism triggers automatic buybacks and token burns, potentially impacting RAIN’s supply over time.
  • Rain operates on the Ethereum Layer-2 Arbitrum network and has earned a spot in the top 10 prediction-market platforms by total value locked and fees, per DeFiLlama data.
  • Enlivex also approved a $20 million share repurchase program, signaling a driver for shareholder value alongside its Rain exposure.
  • Prediction markets have seen dramatic growth, with volumes rising roughly 1,200% to about $23.3 billion from February 2025 to February 2026, though Kalshi and Polymarket continue to account for the majority of trading activity (over 80%).

Enlivex’s Rain exposure deepens

Enlivex’s latest financing rounds out a longer-term treasury strategy centered on Rain. The company disclosed that it exercised the option to acquire 3 billion Rain tokens at a 62% discount for $10 million on Sunday, with a further option to purchase an additional 272.1 billion RAIN tokens at the same price extended through December 2027. The liability side of the arrangement comes in the form of a $21 million debt facility from The Lind Partners, a New York-based asset manager, enabling the purchases and the extended option window.

The move highlights a broader trend where traditional, non-crypto firms are incorporating digital asset holdings to bolster their balance sheets and diversify investor appeal. Enlivex’s executive chair, Shai Novik, framed the deal as a continuation of the company’s strategic commitment to Rain, stressing that the financing would fund both operations and the ongoing accumulation of Rain-based assets.

Rain’s own mechanics underpin the treasury strategy. The platform levies a 2.5% fee on trades, a portion of which is designated for automatic buybacks and burns of RAIN tokens. This mechanism is designed to influence the token’s supply-and-demand balance over time, potentially supporting price dynamics independent of broader market moves.

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Treasury moves and corporate diversification

Alongside the Rain buys, Enlivex announced a $20 million share repurchase program. The buyback is positioned as a move to enhance shareholder value while the company pursues its core business in cell therapies for conditions such as knee osteoarthritis. The combination of debt-financed Rain acquisitions and a stock repurchase program underscores a strategic tilt toward capital management that some investors may view as a sign of confidence in Enlivex’s equity and liquidity position amid a turbulent market backdrop for small-cap biotech firms with non-traditional crypto exposures.

Rain’s link to Enlivex sits within a growing space where non-crypto enterprises seek crypto exposure as a hedge or growth lever. The dynamic also sits alongside ongoing policy and market scrutiny surrounding token-based treasuries, highlighting a need for disciplined risk management and transparent reporting as these cross-industry holdings mature.

Rain’s economics and market position

Rain’s token economics hinge on a built-in burn mechanism driven by a 2.5% platform fee that funds buybacks and token burning. This setup is intended to create a cyclical demand impulse for RAIN amid trading activity on the decentralized prediction market platform. The token’s price reaction following Enlivex’s disclosure reflects the market’s sensitivity to large treasury moves and token-asset exposure by non-crypto corporates.

Trading data from CoinGecko shows Rain fluctuating in the wake of the announcement. The token rose about 7% to around $0.009 before easing to roughly $0.0088, with the 24-hour change curling around flat to a 0.3% gain. Enlivex’s stock, ENVL, likewise moved little on the day—closing near $1.10 and edging higher to about $1.15 in after-hours trading—illustrating a market where traditional equities and crypto-tied instruments can move asynchronously on policy, earnings, and corporate strategy signals.

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Rain’s market position is anchored on Arbitrum, an Ethereum Layer-2 network that hosts a growing ecosystem of decentralized finance and prediction-market protocols. DeFiLlama’s data shows Rain is among the top 10 prediction-market platforms by total value locked and fees over recent periods, reinforcing Rain’s relevance within the broader DeFi and forecasting sectors. In the wider market, Rain competes with established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, which together have historically accounted for a substantial share of prediction-market trading volumes.

Looking at the broader market backdrop, prediction markets have experienced a surge in activity. Data dashboards tracked by analytics platforms show volumes expanding roughly 1,200% year over year to reach about $23.3 billion between February 2025 and February 2026. That rapid growth underscores the potential long-term demand for decentralized forecasting tools, even as platform leadership remains concentrated among a handful of incumbents.

For investors and builders, the Enlivex development highlights several important considerations. First, the willingness of a non-crypto company to diversify into tokenized assets tied to a prediction market signals a potential shift in corporate treasury strategies, particularly if the token’s burn-and-buyback mechanics prove effective at sustaining demand. Second, the sustained liquidity and pricing of Rain will hinge on market depth and the ability of Rain-based platforms to attract meaningful trading volumes beyond a few lead markets. Third, regulatory and accounting implications of large, cross-asset treasury programs remain a critical area to monitor for both Enlivex and similar firms contemplating crypto-integration strategies.

Beyond the immediate deal, observers will watch for how Lind Partners structures the debt facility, how the Rain treasury evolves with ongoing buybacks, and whether the extended option window through 2027 translates into meaningful capital gains if Rain’s platform scales or if macro conditions dampen demand for prediction-market exposure. The next few quarters should reveal whether this cross-industry treasury experiment yields constructive outcomes for investors, token holders, and the broader market.

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As Enlivex advances its Rain strategy, market participants will be watching for signals about liquidity in the Rain market, the sustainability of the buyback regime, and how Rain-backed treasuries perform relative to more conventional crypto exposures.

Enlivex’s activity with Rain continues to illustrate a growing trend where corporate treasuries experiment with decentralized finance instruments to diversify holdings, unlock potential upside, and align with an expanding ecosystem of prediction-market protocols on Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum. The coming months should clarify whether these treasury strategies can withstand market cycles and regulatory developments while delivering tangible value for both corporate actors and the broader Rain community.

Sources: GlobeNewswire press release on Enlivex’s debt financing and Rain-related updates; CoinGecko price data for RAIN and ENVL; DeFiLlama protocol rankings for Rain; Dune Analytics dashboards for prediction-market volumes.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Irish Authorities Recover Millions in Bitcoin From Lost Wallet

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Irish Authorities Recover Millions in Bitcoin From Lost Wallet

Irish national police say they have cracked one of 12 Bitcoin wallets linked to a convicted drug dealer, years after they were confiscated and their access codes were thought to be gone forever.

Ireland’s Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) said in a statement on Tuesday that it had “gained access to and seized a cryptocurrency wallet” containing 500 Bitcoin (BTC), worth more than $35 million, with the help of Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre.

“Europol hosted operational meetings at its headquarters in The Hague, the Netherlands and provided critical support to Bureau investigators and analysts with the provision of highly complex technical expertise and decryption resources vital to the success of the operation,” the CAB said.

The Irish Times reported on Tuesday that the wallet is one of 12 holding a total of 6,000 Bitcoin once owned by Clifton Collins, a drug dealer sentenced to five years in prison for growing and selling cannabis. The access codes were lost when the paper they were printed on disappeared.

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Source: Criminal Assets Bureau 

Most of the time, losing a Bitcoin private key means there’s no way to recover it or crack the wallet; the funds are permanently inaccessible due to public-key cryptography.

Cointelegraph has contacted the CAB and An Garda Síochána for comment.

Wallet flagged as belonging to Collins moves 500 BTC

A wallet labeled “Clifton Collins: Lost Keys” by blockchain intelligence platform Arkham transferred 500 Bitcoin to Coinbase Prime on Tuesday, more than a decade after the coins were first deposited. 

Arkham lists Collins as controlling 14 addresses with total holdings of 5,500 Bitcoin, valued at more than $391 million.

Clifton Collins is listed as having over $391 million in Bitcoin. Source: Arkham

Collins was arrested in 2017 after police searched his car and found a stash of cannabis, according to the Guardian.

Related: Coinbase, Microsoft and Europol take down phishing service ‘Tycoon 2FA’

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Police said Collins used proceeds from his drug operation to purchase 6,000 Bitcoin in late 2011 and early 2012, spreading the holdings across 12 wallets. He stored the wallet keys on a single sheet of A4 paper, hidden inside the aluminum cap of a fishing rod case at his rental home.

After his arrest and sentencing, Collins’ landlord cleared out his rental home and discarded his belongings. Collins, however, claimed the fishing rod case had been stolen before the landlord ever entered the property.

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