Crypto World
Robinhood Private Markets Fund Draws ICO Parallels
Retail brokerage Robinhood announced plans to launch a fund that would give individual investors access to a basket of private companies. The initiative is positioned as an effort to address persistent imbalances in access to capital markets.
However, the structure has drawn comparisons to the initial coin offering (ICO) era. Though the fund will be regulated, it carries several material risks.
Opening Private Markets To Retail
Robinhood formally announced its Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI) on Tuesday, anticipating that it would go public on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in the coming weeks under the symbol RVI.
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The fund is set to offer exposure to a range of private companies, including Revolut, Oura, Ramp, Databricks, Airwallex, Mercor, and Boom. Robinhood also plans to broaden the portfolio over time, adding more private firms, including Stripe.
According to the press release, customers can request initial public offering (IPO) shares of RVI through Robinhood at $25 per share.
Unlike many traditional private market vehicles, RVI is structured to be available to a broad range of investors without accreditation requirements or minimum investment thresholds. The fund charges a management fee but does not impose performance fees. Its shares are expected to provide daily trading liquidity, subject to market conditions.
“Opening up private markets will resolve one of the greatest longstanding inequities in capital markets today, and we’re excited to bring these opportunities to all with Robinhood Ventures Fund I,” said Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev.
However, the move has generated skepticism about the underlying risks of indirectly investing in private companies. For crypto veterans, the structure echoes a familiar dynamic seen during the ICO boom.
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Lessons From The ICO Collapse
RVI provides retail investors with exposure to private growth companies, a segment of the market historically dominated by institutional capital. The fund is an SEC-registered, exchange-listed vehicle operating within established securities laws.
However, its underlying holdings are private companies whose valuations are based on infrequent funding rounds rather than being constantly priced by the public market. The companies’ reported value may not fully reflect changing market conditions until a new funding event forces a reassessment.
RVI is also a closed-end fund, meaning investors cannot sell their shares back at a guaranteed price. Instead, shares trade on the stock exchange, where the price can rise above or fall below the actual value of the companies the fund owns.
As a result, investors face two layers of uncertainty: the underlying private-company valuations and the market price of the fund. The use of leverage could amplify gains but also magnify losses during market stress.
Structural risks of this nature were most visible between 2017 and 2021, during the rapid expansion of ICOs.
During that boom, retail investors gained direct access to early-stage ventures, often driven by forward-looking narratives despite uncertain valuation frameworks and liquidity timelines.
By 2018, many ICO-funded projects failed to deliver viable products or sustainable revenue models. Token prices collapsed as speculative demand faded and regulators intensified scrutiny, wiping out billions and leaving retail investors with losses.
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The episode exposed weaknesses, including limited disclosure, information asymmetry, and heavy reliance on optimistic growth assumptions. While some projects evolved into legitimate networks, the broader ICO cycle became associated with valuation excesses and uneven risk distribution.
This structure does not make RVI equivalent to an ICO, but it helps explain why comparisons have emerged.
When High Valuations Limit Upside
In both cases, retail investors can access high-growth opportunities that were once largely restricted to institutions, even as transparency around valuations and exit timelines remains limited.
The key concern raised by critics is not regulatory oversight, but risk distribution.
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When access expands without continuous price discovery or guaranteed liquidity events, investors may face prolonged capital lock-up, sudden valuation adjustments, or exposure to elevated entry prices.
Some skeptics have also pointed to the fund’s specific composition. Several of RVI’s highlighted holdings, including Stripe, Databricks, and Revolut, have recently raised capital at valuations of $140 billion, $134 billion, and $75 billion, respectively.
Focusing on companies already valued very highly may leave less room for strong future gains. It could also increase the risk of price declines if private-market conditions weaken.
Others contend that traditional venture capital strategies often seek earlier-stage opportunities, where valuations are lower, but growth asymmetry is higher.
In that framing, critics shift the debate from access to timing, arguing that retail investors are entering private markets after valuations have already climbed rather than before major growth takes places.
- XRP has held strong near $1.40 despite mixed market signals.
- Key resistance levels to watch are $1.50, $1.54, and $1.91.
- Arizona has proposed to include XRP in a state-managed crypto reserve fund.
XRP cryptocurrency has held steady above $1.40, showing resilience despite a broadly cautious market.
Recent developments in US policy have added a fresh layer of optimism for XRP enthusiasts.
Arizona advances bill to include XRP in state reserve
Arizona lawmakers are moving forward with legislation that could formally include XRP in a state-managed digital assets fund.
The proposal seeks to create a strategic reserve for digital currencies obtained through seizures or confiscations.
XRP, alongside Bitcoin (BTC), is explicitly listed as an eligible asset.
🚨BREAKING: ARIZONA ADVANCES BILL TO ADD XRP TO OFFICIAL STATE DIGITAL ASSET RESERVE 🇺🇸🔥
Arizona’s Digital Assets Strategic Reserve Fund bill (SB1649) just CLEARED the Senate Finance Committee in a 4–2 vote — and it explicitly includes $XRP in the RESERVE. 👀
The bill now… pic.twitter.com/2x8uVH6LXD
— Diana (@InvestWithD) February 17, 2026
The bill recently passed a key Senate committee in a 4-2 vote, marking a significant step forward.
If enacted, the fund would be managed by the state treasurer with strict custodial oversight.
This move would make Arizona one of the first US states to formally reference XRP in a government financial framework.
For XRP holders, this development is largely symbolic.
The state would not be directly purchasing XRP with taxpayer money, but inclusion in the reserve adds credibility.
It reinforces XRP’s reputation as a functional and settlement-oriented digital asset rather than just a speculative token.
Market activity signals caution
XRP’s short-term price action has been mixed.
The coin is supported around $1.40 to $1.44, creating a key floor that traders are watching closely.
Exchange outflows suggest accumulation by larger holders, while smaller whales have added to their balances, hinting at potential upward pressure.
Technical indicators show both bullish and bearish signals.
Momentum oscillators suggest limited buying activity in the short term, but longer-term smart money metrics point to possible gains.
Patterns on the charts indicate that a break below $1.42 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $1.12.
At the same time, if support holds, traders could see upside targets near $1.91 and $2.13.
XRP has been rangebound for the past month, but the combination of policy developments and structural market accumulation could push it higher.
XRP price prediction
Policy developments in Arizona, combined with accumulation patterns and technical support, may give XRP the momentum it needs to challenge its next resistance levels.
Traders should watch the $1.40–$1.44 support zone closely.
A strong hold here could set the stage for a breakout.
The resistance levels to monitor are $1.50 and $1.54 in the near term.
Beyond that, the next targets are $1.67 and $1.91.
These levels align with smart money accumulation and historical trading ranges.
A sustained move above $2.00 could signal a return of broader bullish sentiment.
Overall, XRP’s price is poised in a delicate balance.
Short-term caution is warranted, but medium-term prospects look promising.
An activist Riot Platform shareholder is pressing the crypto mining company to accelerate its pivot to high-performance computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence.
In a Wednesday letter to executives, Starboard Value, which holds about 12.7 million shares of Riot, said that the company could generate between $9 billion to $21 billion in equity value contribution from AI/HPC data centers in Texas. The shareholder said that “time is of the essence,” stressing urgency in getting “more material deals completed” as it moves deeper into AI and HPC.
“With 1.4 [gigawatts] of gross capacity remaining to be monetized, Riot is in an enviable position – but it must execute with excellence and urgency,” said Starboard. “We believe Riot should be able to attract high-quality tenants for tier-3 data centers with terms similar to or better than the peer transactions announced towards the end of 2025.”
Starboard referred to Riot’s primary sites in Corsicana and Rockdale, Texas, where other crypto miners also operate due to low energy costs and friendly regulations.
At Wednesday’s Nasdaq market open, Riot’s share price surged and were up by almost 6%, at the time of publication. Industry tracker CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF was down less than 1%, by comparison.
Related: Moonwell hit by $1.78M exploit as AI vibe coding debate reaches DeFi
“The recently announced transaction with Advanced Micro Devices […] is a positive signal and confirms our views regarding the intrinsic value of Riot’s key sites, but it is a small proof of concept deal, and we, like you, expect significantly more,” said Starboard, referring to a data center lease and services agreement announced in January.
Many mining companies pivoting away from crypto
Riot Platforms is not the only crypto company shifting some of its operations into AI and HPC amid increasing mining difficulty and other costs. CleanSpark, MARA Holdings, Core Scientific, Hut 8, and TeraWulf repurposed some of their infrastructure or announced similar plans in a move toward AI.
Cango, another Bitcoin miner, sold $305 million worth of its BTC holdings last week in part to fund its planned expansion into AI and HPC.
Magazine: IronClaw rivals OpenClaw, Olas launches bots for Polymarket — AI Eye
A critical oracle pricing glitch has left decentralized lending platform Moonwell grappling with nearly $1.8 million in bad debt.
A misconfigured oracle briefly valued Coinbase Wrapped ETH (cbETH) at just $1 Sunday morning, triggering a sudden cascade of liquidations, in a sobering reminder of the fragility lurking in DeFi infrastructure.
Key Takeaways
- Oracle Failure: A configuration error in Chainlink OEV wrapper contracts caused the system to price $2,200 cbETH at a 99.9% discount.
- Bad Debt Event: Liquidators seized collateral by repaying mere pennies on the dollar, wiping out 1,096 cbETH and leaving the protocol with $1.78 million in bad debt.
- Risk Signal: The incident highlights systemic liquidity risks, mirroring concerns seen as BlockFills freezes withdrawals due to counterparty exposure.
What Caused the Oracle Failure on Moonwell?
According to the postmortem on Moonwell’s Discord, the trouble started Sunday at 6:01 PM UTC following the execution of governance proposal MIP-X43. This upgrade enabled Chainlink OEV wrapper contracts on Base and Optimism, but one feed contained a fatal flaw.
According to risk management firm Anthias Labs, the system failed to multiply the cbETH/ETH exchange rate by the ETH/USD price. Instead, it used the raw exchange rate directly.
This resulted in the oracle reporting a price of roughly $1.12 for an asset trading near $2,200.
Reports indicate the flawed code layout may have been generated by AI tools, specifically Claude Opus 4.6, raising serious questions about audit verification standards for generated code.
— pashov (@pashov) February 17, 2026
Claude Opus 4.6 wrote vulnerable code, leading to a smart contract exploit with $1.78M loss
cbETH asset's price was set to $1.12 instead of ~$2,200. The PRs of the project show commits were co-authored by Claude – Is this the first hack of vibe-coded Solidity code? pic.twitter.com/4p78ZZvd67
Breaking Down the $1.8M Bad Debt
Trading bots immediately pounced on the discrepancy. With the system believing cbETH was worth barely a dollar, liquidators repaid roughly $1 of debt to seize massive amounts of collateral.
In total, 1,096 cbETH was wiped out. That effectively erased the collateral for many borrowers while leaving the protocol holding the bag for the unpaid loan value.
Moonwell’s risk manager, Anthias Labs, moved fast to contain the bleeding. They reduced supply and borrow caps to 0.01 to prevent new users from entering the broken market.
This type of sudden liquidation cascade shows why Ethereum faces crash risks whenever on-chain leverage is mispriced.
Discover: The best new crypto on the market
What This Means for DeFi Lenders
While Moonwell operates across multiple chains with over $90 million in TVL, this incident shakes confidence in automated governance execution. Users must now wait for a governance vote to fix the configuration.
This is not an isolated event. It follows a trend of oracle-related exploits, reinforcing why decentralized protocol security is just as critical as centralized solvency.
The crypto market structure is currently fragile, evidenced by data showing Binance controls 65% of CEX stablecoin reserves.
When liquidity is concentrated and validation fails, the fallout is instant. For yield farmers, this is a signal to check whether your protocol’s code was written by a human or a chatbot before depositing.
Discover: The best meme coins in the world.
The post Oracle Error Leaves DeFi Lender Moonwell With $1.8 Million in Bad Debt appeared first on Cryptonews.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to face selling pressure as it tries to defend a key zone around $67,000, with bears pressing at every incline. The $65,118 support remains a focal point for downside risk, while the upside faces hurdles near $72,000 and $74,508. The longer-term picture is complicated by a pair of moving averages that traders watch closely: the 200-week simple moving average sits near $58,371, while the 200-week exponential moving average hovers around $68,065. The current positioning near the 200-week EMA has prompted some analysts to suggest that BTC may be near a bottom, even as near-term momentum remains fragile.
Analysts have pointed to long-run price action to argue that a bottom could be forming. On X, analyst Jelle observed that almost all of BTC’s significant bottoms formed within the range defined by the 200-week SMA and the 200-week EMA, and he noted that trading near the 200-week EMA might indicate that the bottoming process has begun. That view is echoed by others who study short- and mid-term cycles, suggesting that a durable bottom could be emerging even if volatility remains elevated in the near term. In tandem with this assessment, market watchers highlighted that BTC’s path remains sensitive to macro shocks and micro-structure signals as traders try to discern a durable foundation for a broader recovery.
Matrixport offered a similar read, arguing that BTC may be approaching a durable bottom as sentiment indicators flip from negative to positive. The firm noted that when its daily sentiment indicator’s 21-day moving average dips below zero and then turns upward, selling pressure tends to ease, increasing the odds of a meaningful upside attempt. While such readings do not guarantee an immediate rally, they create a frame of reference for risk-takers who seek to gauge whether sellers are drying up and buyers are growing more aggressive. The bottom line from this view is that BTC could be approaching an inflection point even if the near term still looks susceptible to downside noise.
An additional tailwind cited by a Wells Fargo analyst, Ohsung Kwon, was a potential increase in demand driven by tax refunds. In a note seen by CNBC, Kwon suggested that refunds—especially among higher-income households—could flow into equities and BTC, rekindling the so-called “YOLO” trade. The interplay between consumer liquidity and risk assets remains a critical driver of price action, and the idea that tax-related inflows could buttress a market that has struggled to sustain momentum is shaping expectations for a potential rebound.
The question on many traders’ lips is whether BTC and its leading altcoins can surmount overhead resistance and reestablish a constructive trend. The immediate challenge remains a confluence of resistance around the 20-day moving average and notable round numbers, with a potential pivot to a stronger ascent if buyers can push beyond those barriers. For BTC specifically, there is a clear roadmap: a successful push above the 20-day EMA around $72,282 and the $74,508 threshold could usher in a renewed upside, potentially opening a path to the 50-day simple moving average near $83,129. Conversely, a failure to hold above the critical $65,118 support could invite a rapid test of the next major line near $60,000, with a risk of accelerating declines if selling intensifies.
Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) has managed to keep a constructive posture above the immediate support at $1,897, suggesting that buyers are still defending the downside. The next test is the overhead zone around the 20-day EMA at $2,183. If bulls can clear that area, a more pronounced recovery could unfold toward the 50-day moving average near $2,707. A failure to hold the $1,897 floor would likely invite a renewed pullback toward the $1,750 level, with a deeper break potentially exposing the $1,537 area as a critical line in the sand for bulls to defend.
XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been trading just below the 20-day EMA around $1.52, signaling ongoing pressure from sellers but also a willingness among bulls to defend the line. A decisive move above the 20-day EMA and the $1.61 breakdown level could set XRP on a path toward the 50-day SMA near $1.80, keeping the pair within its current channel for now. A sustained move below the channel’s support could intensify selling and push XRP toward lower supports, testing the stability of the current range.
BNB (CRYPTO: BNB) has traded in a narrow range, reflecting indecision between buyers and sellers. A breakdown below the $570 support could signal a resumption of the downtrend, potentially dragging the pair toward the $500 psyche level. If buyers manage to push above the 20-day EMA around $676, the path could open to a rally toward $730 and then toward $790, where bears are expected to reassert control.
Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) continues to face resistance near the $95 mark, a level that has previously capped upside. A slip below $76 would be a warning sign that bears are reasserting themselves and could turn the $95 threshold into a new ceiling. Should buyers manage to push through the $95 level, the next target would likely be the 50-day SMA around $116, a level where selling pressure historically intensifies as traders reassess risk.
Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) has hovered just under the 20-day EMA at roughly $0.10, a pattern that suggests a potential breakout to the upside if selling pressure remains light. A sustained push above the $0.12 resistance could set DOGE on a course toward the 50-day SMA near $0.12 and beyond, potentially reaching the $0.16 level if buyers grow more aggressive. If price action fails to clear the $0.12 resistance, a consolidation range between roughly $0.08 and $0.12 could prevail for several sessions.
Bitcoin Cash (CRYPTO: BCH) has traded between its moving averages, signaling indecision about the next directional move. The 20-day EMA around $547 and the RSI’s intermediate position imply a possible upside breakout if demand strengthens, potentially pushing BCH toward $600 and then toward $630. A break below the 20-day EMA could invite a correction toward $500 as bears gain ground.
Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE) closed below the 20-day EMA recently, underscoring selling pressure at higher levels. The path of least resistance would depend on whether buyers can sustain a move above the 50-day SMA around $27.74; failing that, a slide toward the $20.82 support area could unfold. A breakout above the $32.50 barrier would be a bullish signal, potentially leading to a rally into the $38.42–$35.50 zone as momentum compresses in the near term.
Cardano (CRYPTO: ADA) has held near the 20-day EMA of about $0.29, suggesting that bulls are keeping the pressure on the downside. A sustained move above the 20-day EMA could carry ADA toward the downtrend line, which has historically acted as a strong resistance. If buyers manage to pierce the downtrend, the price could advance toward $0.44 and then to $0.50. Conversely, a break below the current support could push ADA down toward the $0.15 region, underscoring the risk of a renewed downleg if buyers fail to defend critical levels.
Monero (CRYPTO: XMR) has not breached the key $360 breakdown threshold, with bulls maintaining the immediate support near $309. A sustained push above the 20-day EMA around $366 could open a path toward the 50-day SMA near $449, where bears are expected to reassert themselves. A break below $309 would suggest that bears are regaining control and could test the crucial $276 support, potentially leading to a contained range if buyers respond with resilience at that level.
XRP price moved sideways on Wednesday after the developers activated the Permissioned decentralized exchange feature.
Summary
- XRP price wavered on Wednesday after the developers activated the Permissioned DEX feature.
- The launch came after the recent activation of Permissioned Domains.
- It has formed a gravestone doji candlestick pattern pointing to more downside.
Ripple (XRP) token traded at $1.4860, within the range it has held over the past few days. This price is much lower than the year-to-date high of $2.4160.
Ripple reached a major milestone today by activating the Permissioned DEX feature, a unique solution for companies in the financial services industry.
Unlike the popular DEX platforms such as Uniswap and Raydium, the Permissioned DEX allows institutions to participate in these ecosystems in a controlled way. In this, only restricted entities will be able to participate, a move intended to promote institutional compliance requirements.
The solution will have several use cases, including institutional trading, cross-border payments, and forex settlements. It will allow these institutions to trade assets, including XRP and Ripple USD, without exposing them to unvetted counterparties.
The permissioned DEX feature was activated a few days after the developers launched permissioned domains and token credentials. Permissioned domains serve as an on-ledger allowlist that controls who can participate in the XRP Ledger network. They are the core gating mechanism for the DEX feature.
All these features will help to provide the XRP token with more utility and increase its token burn.
All this is happening at a time when Ripple has increased its compliance measures, which will help it to create more partnerships with institutions. It has acquired a provisional banking charter in the United States and received several licenses, including in the UK and the European Union.
XRP price technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the XRP token has remained in a tight range in the past few days, mirroring the ongoing consolidation in the crypto industry.
It formed a gravestone doji candlestick pattern on Sunday. This candle is characterized by a long upper shadow and a small body and is a common bearish reversal sign.
The coin has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages. It has also dropped below the Ichimoku cloud indicator and the key resistance level at $1.7873, its lowest level in November and December last year.
Therefore, the most likely XRP forecast is bearish, with the initial target being the year-to-date low of $1.1215. A move below that level will signal further downside, potentially to the psychological level at $1.
Crypto World
Sam Altman’s OpenAI unveils ‘EVMbench’ to test whether AI can keep crypto’s smart contracts safe
OpenAI is stepping deeper into crypto security with the launch of EVMbench, a new testing framework designed to measure how well artificial intelligence can understand and potentially secure smart contracts on Ethereum and similar blockchains.
Smart contracts, self-executing code deployed on blockchains like Ethereum, underpin decentralized exchanges, lending protocols and a wide range of onchain financial applications. Because these contracts are typically immutable once deployed, vulnerabilities can be serious.
EVMbench is OpenAI’s attempt to see whether modern AI systems are up to the task of helping prevent those issues. Built in collaboration with crypto investment firm Paradigm, the benchmark draws on real-world smart contract vulnerabilities previously uncovered through audits and security competitions.
The system measures performance across three core abilities: identifying security bugs, exploiting those bugs in a controlled environment and fixing the vulnerable code without breaking the contracts.
OpenAI says the goal is to establish a clear standard for evaluating AI systems in blockchain security, especially as decentralized finance continues to secure billions of dollars in user funds. The stakes for smart contracts are only rising.
“Smart contracts routinely secure $100B+ in open-source crypto assets. As AI agents improve at reading, writing, and executing code, it becomes increasingly important to measure their capabilities in economically meaningful environments, and to encourage the use of AI systems defensively to audit and strengthen deployed contracts,” OpenAI wrote in a blog post.
Read more: Most Influential: Sam Altman
The token’s rally highlights an ongoing debate over memecoin fundamentals and speculation.
Memecore (M) jumped as much as 19% on Tuesday, Feb. 17, making it one of the crypto market’s top performers on the day – but experts aren’t sold on the token’s lofty valuation.
MemeCore, launched in 2025, is a Layer 1 blockchain designed to connect creators and communities through meme-native applications and decentralized apps (dApps). The token traded as high as $1.59 on Tuesday, but has since retraced to $1.45, down 3.5% over the past 24 hours.
The token’s market capitalization currently stands near $2.5 billion, while its fully diluted valuation is about $7.7 billion – down from $8.11 billion a day earlier, according to CoinGecko.
While the price surge signalled momentum at first glance, analysts told The Defiant it actually underscores deeper structural concerns around valuation and liquidity.
“I wouldn’t waste a single Gwei on MemeCore,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at Bitwise. “This token’s soaring $2 billion valuation is divorced from the reality of memecoin economics.”
He explained that across the competitive landscape, pumpfun printed $8.6 million in revenue over the past week. “It has a valuation of $800 million; meanwhile, MemeCore generated $10 in transaction fees over the same period,” Nelson said. “I don’t see how MemeCore could be worth 2.5 times as much as Pump.Fun.”
MemeCore did not respond to The Defiant’s request for comment.
This criticism also extended to the broader mechanics behind meme token rallies, according to Brian Huang, co-founder of Glider.
“It’s no surprise that Memes consistently make up the top gainers: low liquidity means traders can manipulate the price without needing large amounts of capital,” said Huang. “Compare that to trading a stock like NVDA, which would require hundreds of millions of dollars to move the price significantly.”
Huang added that meme tokens, in general, pose significant risks to retail investors. “Marketing is always highlighting winners with +10,000% gains, when in reality the vast majority of traders lose money,” he said. “As an industry, we should be focused on building products that grow the wealth of on-chain users.”
Huang also warned that many traders underestimate the competitive landscape, failing to recognize that they are trading against industrialized trading firms.
“The odds are against these traders,” Huang emphasized. “The broader problem with memes is that they conflate investing with gambling. Retail users cannot distinguish between real investable assets (like BTC, ETH, and SOL) and memes. They are all presented the same way to these users.”
The memecoin sector currently boasts a market capitalization of around $35.9 billion, down about 0.3% over the past 24 hours.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin is flashing a severe warning regarding dollar liquidity that stock markets have yet to acknowledge.
While the Nasdaq remains flat, Bitcoin has tumbled from its highs, signaling what Hayes describes as an impending AI-driven credit crisis.
This divergence suggests traditional equities are mispricing systemic risk.
Key Takeaways
- Market Signal: Bitcoin’s decoupling from a stable Nasdaq indicates a sharp withdrawal of dollar liquidity.
- Macro Thesis: Hayes predicts AI advancements will trigger white-collar job losses, leading to consumer credit defaults.
- Critical Data: Crypto derivatives markets saw a massive $12 billion leverage washout in a single week.
Why Is the Correlation Between Bitcoin and Nasdaq Breaking?
Bitcoin has traded in lockstep with tech stocks for months, with correlations surging to 0.75 by January 2026.
That relationship has unraveled. While the Nasdaq 100 holds steady, bear market risks are escalating for crypto as Bitcoin retreats significantly from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,080.
Hayes argues this split is not innocuous market noise. In his Substack post “This Is Fine,” he claims Bitcoin is reacting primarily to fiat credit conditions.
He envisions a scenario where economic displacement grinds the “Pax Americana” economy to a halt. In this view, Bitcoin is acting as the canary in the coal mine, pricing in liquidity stress before it hits the broader stock market.
The Data Behind the Move
The numbers support the theory of a liquidity withdrawal. Bitcoin futures open interest collapsed by approximately 20% in a single week, dropping from $61 billion to $49 billion.
This rapid deleveraging suggests capital is fleeing the crypto sector faster than traditional finance.
While the liquidity landscape is tightening due to the Federal Reserve draining the reverse repo facility, warnings of a full crisis may be overblown.
Crypto-specific factors, such as stalled regulation and ETF flow exhaustion, are also exacerbating Bitcoin’s drawdown.
Interestingly, Bitcoin has lost its sensitivity to the dollar itself. The asset has failed to rally even during periods of USD weakness, a reversal from historical trends where a cheaper dollar boosted crypto prices.
Discover: The best meme coins.
How Concerned Should You Be?
Hayes’ theory falls if Bitcoin can launch a quick and sustained recovery. If it fails to rebound, the inverse link to equities might assert itself further.
Hayes believes the smart money is moving toward privacy assets like Zcash and DEX tokens like Hyperliquid, betting that state oversight will increase in order to manage economic contraction.
For shorter-term traders, volatility signals remain elevated. If Hayes is correct about the dollar credit crunch, traditional markets may soon join Bitcoin downward.
However, if this is purely a crypto-native washout, the divergence could offer a buying opportunity for those betting on a liquidity rotation later in the year.
Discover: The best new cryptocurrencies.
The post Bitcoin’s Divergence From Nasdaq Signals Dollar Liquidity Risk, Says Arthur Hayes appeared first on Cryptonews.
World Liberty Financial (WLFI) crypto is tearing through resistance, rallying nearly 20% to test the critical $0.12 level. The catalyst is clear: intense Whale Accumulation ahead of today’s high-stakes summit at Mar-a-Lago.
Key Takeaways
- Surge: WLFI spikes 20% to trade near $0.118, eyeing a confirmed breakout above the $0.12 resistance zone.
- Whales: A fresh wallet withdrew 25 million tokens ($2.75M), signaling high-conviction buying before the event start.
- Catalyst: The sold-out Mar-a-Lago forum kicks off today with top finance and Trump Crypto figures.
Why is the Market Buying the Hype?
All eyes are on the World Liberty Forum, launching today at Donald Trump’s Palm Beach club. This is not a casual networking event. It is positioned as a serious attempt to connect traditional finance with DeFi.
Big names are expected in the room, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Goldman Sachs chief David Solomon. That kind of guest list shifts the tone from hype to credibility. Traders are watching closely, not for meme momentum, but for signals of institutional alignment.
The timing also matters. Political momentum around clearer crypto regulation is building, and optimism around an upcoming market structure bill is adding fuel. If that backdrop firms up, projects tied to this ecosystem could benefit from a stronger foundation rather than just speculative buzz.
The Data: Whale Wallets in Motion
The big players are not waiting for headlines to confirm anything. On chain data shows a brand new wallet pulled 25 million WLFI, about $2.75M, off exchanges just hours before the rally kicked off. That is not random timing. That is positioning.
When tokens leave exchanges, supply tightens. If demand starts rising at the same time, price reacts faster. We are already seeing that effect.
Volume has exploded more than 120%. That kind of spike usually means larger flows are involved, not just retail chasing green candles. It fits the classic pattern where whales accumulate during politically or economically sensitive moments, then momentum builds around them.
Will WLFI Break $0.15?
All eyes are locked on $0.12. Clear that level cleanly and $0.15 comes into focus fast. The market is already front running expectations around the rumored “World Swap” forex service and potential RWA integrations set to be discussed at the forum.
That kind of anticipation fuels momentum. But it also raises the stakes.
Well, the announcements come with real details and timelines, buyers likely press harder. If it is vague or delayed, a sharp sell the news reaction would not be surprising.
For now, though, sentiment is leaning bullish. The heavyweight guest list and political backing are giving the Trump crypto narrative serious traction.
Discover: Here are the crypto likely to explode!
The post WLFI Crypto Surges Toward $0.12 as Whale Buys $2.75M Before Trump-Linked Forum appeared first on Cryptonews.
In a private Florida gathering at Mar-a-Lago, lawmakers, industry executives, and crypto leaders converged to discuss the policy terrain shaping the United States’ approach to digital assets. The forum, organized by World Liberty Financial—the company led by Donald Trump’s two eldest sons—put a spotlight on how Washington plans to regulate markets, custody, and the evolving landscape of tokenized assets. In the lead-up to the event, World Liberty’s WLFI token surged more than 23%, trading around $0.12 after topping $466 million in volume over the prior 24 hours. The gathering drew co-founders Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, BitGo co-founder and CEO Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, among others, signaling a melding of political influence and entrepreneurial crypto interests.
The setting—a private club forum rather than a public hearing—did not keep the subject from the spotlight. Participants were slated to address a broad array of policy issues central to the crypto economy, from market structure and regulation to concerns about stablecoin yields and the oversight framework for digital assets. As lawmakers debate a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill, Selig is scheduled to engage with New York Stock Exchange President Lynn Martin to discuss provisions that would clarify how the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission oversee the space.
While the guest list underscored bipartisan interest in crypto policy, President Trump himself was not listed as a participant as of Wednesday morning. The event nonetheless underscored the president’s family’s ongoing entanglement with crypto ventures, a dynamic that has drawn scrutiny and speculation from observers and policymakers alike. It comes at a moment when several Democratic senators are pushing to ensure that the market structure bill includes robust safeguards around conflicts of interest for lawmakers and officials who stand to benefit from crypto industry activity while in office. The push reflects a broader debate about how to align regulatory clarity with accountability in a fast-moving sector.
The conversation happened against a broader policy backdrop. In January, the Senate Agriculture Committee—responsible for CFTC oversight—advanced its version of the market structure bill along partisan lines, with no Democrats voting in favor. Separately, the Senate Banking Committee postponed its markup after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong raised concerns about tokenized equities and decentralized finance within the bill’s framework. The tension between promoting innovation and establishing guardrails remains a central feature of the policy discourse surrounding digital assets.
Beyond policy specifics, the forum touched on a wider narrative: the growing convergence of politics and crypto finance. Media coverage has highlighted the rising fortunes tied to crypto projects associated with the Trump family; Bloomberg reporters have cited substantial revenue tied to crypto ventures since 2025. In 2019, Trump himself characterized Bitcoin as “not a fan” and described the cryptocurrency as a “scam” after stepping away from office, a stance that has since given way to a more active, albeit cautious, engagement with the asset class in various public and private channels.
Key takeaways
- World Liberty Financial’s WLFI token jumped about 23% ahead of the forum, reaching roughly $0.12 amid a 24-hour trading volume above $466 million, signaling notable market attention around the event.
- The attendee roster blended political figures with crypto executives, including Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong, BitGo’s Mike Belshe, and CFTC Chair Michael Selig, underscoring the policy-business nexus in the space.
- The gathering occurred as the US contemplates a comprehensive digital asset market structure bill; policymakers discussed how the CFTC and SEC should oversee digital assets, with Selig engaging NYSE President Lynn Martin on bill provisions.
- Democratic lawmakers are pressing for amendments to address conflicts of interest among public officials profiting from crypto, highlighting governance concerns amid bills still under consideration.
- Public narratives around Trump’s crypto involvement—contrasted with his past comments about Bitcoin—illustrate the evolving political calculus around crypto ventures and regulation.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Price impact: Positive. WLFI’s 23% surge ahead of the forum reflects market anticipation around policy developments and the profile of attendees.
Market context: The event sits within a broader regulatory debate about how the US should supervise digital assets, with ongoing discussions over market structure, stablecoin governance, and the boundaries between innovation and investor protection in a rapidly evolving space.
Why it matters
The dynamic at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how policy, politics, and market activity are increasingly interwoven in crypto. For investors, the WLFI price move signals that markets are listening to policy signals and that high-profile policy conversations can move tokenized assets and related markets in the short term. For builders and issuers, the discussions spotlight the priority of clear, implementable regulations that reduce ambiguity for product development, token structures, and custody arrangements, while preserving room for innovation.
For policymakers, the event underscores the challenge of balancing competitive US leadership in digital finance with robust safeguards. The push from some senators to tighten conflicts-of-interest provisions signals a demand for greater accountability as the sector grows more entwined with political actors and public policy. The dialogue around how to adjudicate tokenized assets, stablecoins, and prediction markets remains unsettled, but the cross-party interest in clarifying oversight points to a longer, structured path toward regulatory clarity.
In a broader sense, the gathering reflects a sector-wide trend toward closer collaboration between industry veterans and policymakers, a development that could shape the pace and direction of future legislation. The intersection of family-led business ventures, public policy, and major exchanges adds a layer of visibility that may influence investor sentiment, regulatory expectations, and the strategic decisions of market participants in the months ahead.
What to watch next
- Follow the progression of the market structure bill in the Senate, including any markup dates and committee votes.
- Track statements or amendments from lawmakers on conflicts-of-interest provisions for officials in crypto-related roles.
- Monitor updates from the CFTC and SEC on supervisory approaches to digital assets, including any new guidance on tokenized products or stablecoins.
- Observe WLFI’s trading activity and any official updates from World Liberty Financial regarding the token’s supply and use cases.
- Watch for additional disclosures from figures involved in the forum and any resulting policy white papers or draft legislation.
Sources & verification
- World Liberty Financial’s X post announcing the event and attendees: https://x.com/worldlibertyfi/status/2024129983162048855
- Democrats file amendments to crypto market structure bill: https://cointelegraph.com/news/democrats-file-amendments-crypto-market-structure
- CFTC Chair Michael Selig’s remarks on prediction markets: https://cointelegraph.com/news/cftc-michael-selig-defending-prediction-markets
- Bloomberg feature on Trump family crypto involvement: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2026-01-20/donald-trump-family-net-worth-increasingly-comes-from-crypto
- Trump’s past Bitcoin stance and related coverage: https://cointelegraph.com/news/trump-bitcoin-u-turn-critic-became-pump-signal
Key figures and next steps: policy momentum at a private crypto forum
The gathering at Mar-a-Lago illustrates how the policy conversation has moved from abstract debate to a more concrete, event-driven engagement among policymakers, executives, and investors. As the US continues to refine its approach to market structure, custody, and the oversight of digital assets, the interplay between political action and market dynamics will likely intensify. Observers will be watching not only the outcomes of committee discussions and potential amendments but also how market participants respond to the evolving regulatory signals that emerge from such high-profile, private interlocutors.
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