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Robinhood Q4 Earnings Miss as Crypto Revenues Decline

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Robinhood’s latest earnings narrative paints a bifurcated picture: the platform’s overall revenue grew, but the crypto segment continued to grapple with a broader market downturn. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the trading platform reported net revenues of $1.28 billion, up 27% year over year yet beneath Wall Street consensus of about $1.34 billion. Crypto revenues declined sharply, falling 38% year over year to $221 million as digital asset markets cooled after the October downturn. On the bottom line, the company posted net income of $605 million and earnings per share of $0.66, modestly topping expectations of $0.63. For the full year, Robinhood tallied a record $4.5 billion in net revenues and $1.9 billion in net income, marking increases of 52% and 35%, respectively.

Key takeaways

  • Q4 net revenues came in at $1.28 billion, missing the approximately $1.34 billion expected by analysts, even as the company delivered a 27% YoY increase.
  • Crypto revenues dropped to $221 million in Q4, a 38% year-over-year decline amid a bearish tilt in crypto markets that accelerated in October.
  • Notional crypto volumes across Robinhood’s app and its wholly owned exchange Bitstamp rose 3% QoQ to a record $82.4 billion, underscoring ongoing user engagement in crypto activity despite revenue softness.
  • Equity trading volumes grew more robustly in the quarter, up 10% QoQ to $710 billion, with options trading up 8% to 659 million contracts, highlighting diversification away from crypto into traditional assets.
  • Robinhood’s “other” transaction-based revenues — including its prediction markets and futures — surged to a quarterly record of $147 million, rising 375% year over year and surpassing equity trading revenues for the first time.
  • Shares in Robinhood (HOOD) fell in after-hours trading, down 7.66% to $79.04 after closing the regular session at $85.60, continuing a drawdown that has left the stock well below its October 2023 peak.

Tickers mentioned: $HOOD

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Negative. The stock moved lower in after-hours trading following the earnings release, reflecting investor disappointment with crypto revenues and the quarterly miss on consensus estimates.

Market context: The results come as a broader retail and crypto market backdrop remains fragile, with liquidity and risk appetite shifting as investors reassess the potential for mainstream adoption of crypto products within a unified “Financial SuperApp” strategy.

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Why it matters

The quarterly numbers illustrate how Robinhood is trying to diversify beyond its origins as a stock-trading app. While the core platform posted a respectable top-line increase, the crypto business—once a high-growth driver—hit a wobble as the crypto cycle cooled. This divergence underscores a broader industry trend: even as retail interest in crypto persists, revenue generation from digital assets remains highly sensitive to price action and market sentiment. For a company positioning itself as a one-stop financial interface, crypto volatility adds a layer of risk to the pace and scale of user monetization.

At the same time, Robinhood’s willingness to lean into non-traditional revenue sources is evident. The quarterly ascent of “other” transaction-based revenues to $147 million, a 375% year-over-year climb, marked a watershed moment where prediction markets and futures began to outpace traditional equity trading revenues. The platform’s bet on event contracts, launched in partnership with Kalshi in March last year, appears to be paying off as traders seek derivatives tied to real-world outcomes. This diversification aligns with the company’s stated ambition to become a holistic Financial SuperApp, a longer-term thesis that hinges on expanding monetization across asset classes and product types.

From an investor perspective, the earnings mix highlights both opportunity and risk. The after-hours stock swing reflects heightened sensitivity to crypto headlines and quarterly revenue gaps. Yet, management’s ability to deliver record annual revenues and grow net income suggests a resilient operating model, buoyed by a mix of crypto exposure, growing volumes in traditional markets, and the rapid acceleration of ancillary products like prediction markets. The “Financial SuperApp” narrative remains intact, but the path to scale will likely depend on continuing to attract and retain a broad user base while extracting incremental margin from new product lines.

CEO Vlad Tenev reiterated a strategic thread that has persisted through earnings cycles: the company is relentlessly building out its suite of financial services to deepen user engagement and lifetime value. In the statement, he emphasized that “our vision hasn’t changed: we are building the Financial SuperApp.” That framing, if realized, could help Robinhood weather episodic crypto downturns by yielding a more stable and diversified revenue stream across products and geographies.

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What to watch next

  • Next-quarter commentary on crypto revenue resilience: whether price action and user activity stabilize enough to revive crypto-related monetization.
  • Progress updates on the “Financial SuperApp” initiative, including product rollouts, cross-product usage metrics, and international expansion signals.
  • Regulatory developments affecting crypto trading and prediction markets, especially around consumer protections and platform liability.
  • Quarterly trends in notional crypto volumes versus other product categories to gauge ongoing demand shifts from crypto to traditional assets and derivative markets.
  • Follow-up on Kalshi partnership outcomes and the elasticity of revenue from event-based contracts as mainstream retail adoption evolves.

Sources & verification

  • Robinhood Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results — official press release
  • Zacks coverage comparing results to Wall Street estimates
  • Bitstamp and Robinhood crypto trading volume context and quarterly notional volumes
  • Robinhood launches betting markets hub with Kalshi — coverage of the prediction markets initiative

Robinhood earnings reveal crypto headwinds amid broader revenue growth

Robinhood (EXCHANGE: HOOD) reported mixed fourth-quarter results as the platform continues to diversify beyond its core trading app into crypto services and other revenue streams. In Q4 2025, the company tallied net revenues of $1.28 billion, a 27% year-over-year increase but below Wall Street consensus of roughly $1.34 billion. Crypto revenues declined sharply, falling 38% year over year to $221 million as digital asset markets cooled after the October downturn. On the bottom line, the company posted net income of $605 million and earnings per share of $0.66, modestly topping expectations of $0.63. For the full year, Robinhood tallied a record $4.5 billion in net revenues and $1.9 billion in net income, marking increases of 52% and 35%, respectively.

Notional crypto volumes across the app and its exchange Bitstamp rose 3% quarter-on-quarter to a record $82.4 billion in Q4, underscoring continued user engagement in digital assets despite soft revenue figures. By comparison, traditional equities activity remained stronger, with equity trade volumes up 10% QoQ to $710 billion and options trading rising 8% to 659 million contracts. The company’s foray into event-based contracts also bore fruit in the quarter, as Kalshi-backed prediction markets helped lift overall revenue from “other” transaction-based streams to a quarterly record of $147 million, up 375% year over year and surpassing the revenue generated from equity trades for the first time.

The quarterly narrative sits within a broader strategy to expand Robinhood’s product suite beyond stock and crypto trading. The company emphasized that the growth of prediction markets and futures was not a one-off spike but part of a deliberate pivot toward higher-margin, diversified revenue streams. While the crypto segment faced headwinds, the strength of non-traditional product lines suggests a path to resilience if demand for these instruments remains robust and regulators maintain a stable environment for retail access to alternatives.

Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev framed the results within the larger ambition of building a comprehensive financial platform. “Our vision hasn’t changed: we are building the Financial SuperApp,” he said, highlighting that the business model is designed to leverage cross-product engagement and monetization across multiple asset classes. The market reaction to the earnings release reflects a cautious stance: investors weighed the crypto softness against the strength of other lines and the long-term potential of a broader platform ecosystem.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Crypto World

European Energy Crisis: How Russia and Qatar Shocks Are Threatening EU Industrial Power

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • Europe still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year, half of Russia’s total exports.
  • Qatar supplies 20% of global LNG and declared force majeure, with production halted for at least one month.
  • The U.S. now controls over 50% of Europe’s LNG supply, giving Washington direct leverage over EU energy costs.
  • Gas prices have already surged over 50% as simultaneous supply shocks strain Europe’s limited energy alternatives.

European energy crisis pressures are mounting as Russia redirects LNG exports while Qatar declares force majeure on gas. Europe replaced cheap Russian pipeline gas with costly LNG after the Ukraine war began.

Now two simultaneous supply shocks are hitting the continent at once. Gas prices have already surged over 50% in recent days.

The EU faces limited alternatives and growing concerns about a 2022-style energy crunch that could once again disrupt factories across the region.

Russia Redirects Exports as Qatar Shuts Down Production

Before the Ukraine war, Europe relied on 15 billion cubic feet per day of Russian gas. That supply kept European manufacturing costs competitive for years.

After the conflict began, Europe sourced costlier LNG from the U.S., Qatar, and other producers. The transition raised energy costs for European industry considerably.

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The EU still imported 2 billion cubic feet per day of Russian LNG last year. That volume is roughly half of Russia’s total LNG exports globally. Russia has now announced it will redirect those flows to China and India.

Bull Theory stated on X: “Russia announced it will redirect part of its LNG exports away from Europe to friendly countries like China and India immediately.”

Russia’s move comes before the EU’s 2027 legal ban on Russian gas takes effect. Moscow has clear incentive to act on supply leverage before that deadline.

European policymakers now face a difficult position with limited response time. New supply chains cannot be established quickly enough to fill the gap.

Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility shutdown has added another blow to Europe’s energy position. Qatar supplies 20% of all global LNG and declared force majeure after the closure.

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Normal production is not expected to resume for at least one month. Europe had relied on Qatari LNG as a central part of its post-Russia supply plan.

U.S. Leverage Grows While European Industry Faces Closures

The United States now supplies over 50% of Europe’s LNG. This gives Washington leverage over European energy costs and industrial policy.

European manufacturers must either absorb higher costs or relocate operations to North America. Bull Theory noted: “This effectively allows the U.S. to weaponize energy costs, forcing European factories to either pay a massive premium or relocate.”

Unlike China and India, Europe has not built diverse energy supply chains. Both nations secured alternatives that shielded them from current disruptions.

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Europe, by contrast, faces simultaneous shocks with very few substitutes. Brussels is caught between U.S. bargaining pressure and a supply gap that diplomacy cannot quickly fill.

If the Hormuz blockade continues for weeks, a second wave of factory closures becomes likely. A similar pattern to 2022 could emerge, with permanent industrial losses for the European energy crisis.

The EU’s manufacturing standing faces direct structural pressure as a result. The outcome depends on events largely outside Europe’s control.

Russia still earns billions from the EU despite current tensions. The coming 2027 ban removes Moscow’s incentive to keep flows stable.

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Europe has few tools to address a supply failure of this scale. The energy challenge now extends well beyond what Brussels can manage alone.

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Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations in Potential Fundraising: WSJ

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Kalshi, Polymarket Eye $20B Valuations in Potential Fundraising: WSJ

Prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are reportedly exploring new fundraising rounds that could value the companies at around $20 billion each, roughly double their most recent valuations.

Both platforms have held preliminary discussions with potential investors about raising fresh capital at the elevated valuation, the Wall Street Journal reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. The report noted that the negotiations remain at an early stage and may not result in deals or secure the targeted valuation.

Kalshi currently operates in the United States and offers markets allowing users to wager on outcomes tied to sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December when it raised $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital.

Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi received approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has since expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates placing the figure closer to $1.5 billion.

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Related: Kalshi, Polymarket face trading halt in Nevada after court rulings

Polymarket plans US launch later this year

Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to US users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version of its platform later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.

Both platforms have drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators. As Cointelegraph reported, US Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of US and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns.