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Russia-Linked Crypto Activity Drove Illicit Wallet Inflows to a 5-Year High in 2025: TRM Labs

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Russia-Linked Crypto Activity Drove Illicit Wallet Inflows to a 5-Year High in 2025: TRM Labs


Russia-aligned crypto activity surged even as illicit transactions fell to just 1.2% of total on-chain volume in 2025.

Illicit cryptocurrency activity rebounded sharply in 2025, driven primarily by Russia-linked sanctions designations and improved attribution. A new report by TRM Labs estimates that fraudulent wallets received approximately $158 billion in incoming value during the year, which is the highest level recorded over the past five years.

The increase is a dramatic reversal from 2024, when illicit inflows fell to $64.5 billion, following a steady multi-year decline from $85.9 billion in 2021 to $75.4 billion in 2022 and $73.3 billion in 2023.

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Sanctions, Stablecoins, and State Strategy

TRM Labs attributed the 2025 surge not only to intensified enforcement actions but also to expanded use of cryptocurrency by nation-state actors and technological advances that enabled the identification of previously unattributed illicit volumes. The most significant shift was concentrated in sanctions-linked activity tied overwhelmingly to Russia, as volumes associated with sanctioned entities and jurisdictions rose sharply.

The A7A5 token alone accounted for an estimated $72 billion in incoming value, followed by $39 billion linked to the A7 wallet cluster, with the majority of this activity connected to Russia-linked actors, including Garantex, Grinex, and A7.

The blockchain intelligence firm stated that the increase does not reflect sanctions evasion growth alone, but rather the combination of new sanctions designations targeting large entities and improved attribution of cryptocurrency addresses to actors that had already been sanctioned.

Among these, A7 emerged as a central node and functioned as a centrally coordinated sanctions evasion architecture tied to Russian state interests. On-chain activity analyzed by TRM indicates that A7 operates as a hub linking Russia-aligned actors with counterparties across China, Southeast Asia, and Iran-linked networks, in a major pivot toward crypto-enabled, state-aligned financial infrastructure.

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While the A7 wallet cluster is closely associated with sanctions evasion activity, the A7A5 token supports a wider push to reduce reliance on USD-based financial systems through the expansion of a ruble-pegged stablecoin. As a result, the high transaction volumes linked to A7A5 do not exclusively represent sanctions evasion, but sanctioned activity more broadly, including state-aligned economic flows.

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Fraudulent Crypto Grows

Zooming out from sanctions-related activity, the firm also revealed that overall illicit crypto inflows rose to an all-time high in 2025, even as such activity accounted for a smaller share of the crypto ecosystem. Measured as a proportion of total attributed on-chain volume, illicit activity declined slightly to 1.2% in 2025 from 1.3% in 2024, and remained well below the 2.4% peak recorded in 2023.

A similar pattern was observed when illicit activity was assessed relative to incoming liquidity, as illicit entities received 2.7% of incoming VASP flows in 2025, compared with 2.9% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2023. TRM Labs said these metrics indicate that while certain illicit categories expanded significantly in absolute terms, illicit actors absorbed a smaller proportion of new capital entering the crypto ecosystem.

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Bitcoin price prediction: BTC at $68K

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Bitcoin leverage jumps as open interest spikes near $70k

The bitcoin price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today tells a familiar story: BTC briefly reclaimed $70,000 on Monday ceasefire hopes before retreating to the $68,000 range on Tuesday as Iran rejected the deal and Trump’s 8 PM ET deadline drew closer, with ETH, SOL, and XRP all posting losses of 2% to 4%.

Summary

  • Bitcoin touched $70,200 on Monday on ceasefire optimism, then pulled back to around $68,200 on Tuesday as Iran rejected the 45-day proposal and geopolitical risk overwhelmed bullish sentiment
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $471 million in inflows on April 6, the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February, signaling sustained institutional demand even as price action weakened
  • Analysts say a confirmed deal tonight could push BTC toward $75,000, while a major escalation risks breaking the $66,500 support level and opening a path toward $60,000

The bitcoin (BTC) price prediction latest crypto news Iran deadline today is being driven entirely by geopolitics. Bitcoin pulled back to around $68,228 on Tuesday morning after Monday’s brief touch of $70,200, as Iran formally rejected the US-backed 45-day ceasefire proposal and Trump confirmed his 8 PM ET strike deadline remained in force. The crypto market cap fell roughly 2% to $2.42 trillion as traders positioned defensively heading into the evening.

Ethereum dropped 2.9% to $2,090. Solana fell 3.8% to $79.44. XRP slid 3.3% to $1.31. The pattern is the same one that has played out across six weeks of this conflict: a de-escalation headline sparks a rally, Iran rejects the terms, and the gains get erased within hours.

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The one data point bucking the bearish narrative is spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Monday’s $471 million in inflows marked the sixth-largest single-day total of 2026 and the highest since late February, according to Bloomberg. Binance Research found this month that Bitcoin’s correlation with its Global Easing Breadth Index, which tracks 41 central banks, turned strongly negative after the launch of spot ETFs, suggesting institutional investors are treating dips as accumulation opportunities regardless of short-term price moves.

As crypto.news reported, a confirmed agreement tonight could open the door to a move toward $75,000, as easing tensions would support risk appetite across financial markets. Failure to reach a deal points in the other direction, with $66,500 identified as the key support zone and, below that, a Glassnode-flagged negative gamma setup that leaves BTC exposed to a faster move toward $60,000.

The Two Scenarios Traders Are Pricing

“This move looks less like a shift in fundamentals and more like positioning getting caught offsides,” said Diana Pires, chief business officer at sFOX. “Heading into the weekend, sentiment was heavily skewed bearish and short interest had built up across the market. Once ceasefire headlines hit, that positioning had to unwind.”

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The six-week trading range of $65,000 to $73,000 that has defined Bitcoin during the Iran war remains intact. Breaking above it requires either a genuine ceasefire or a significant improvement in the macro backdrop — neither of which looks imminent at press time.

What the Fed Overlay Adds

Oil above $111 per barrel means inflation expectations remain elevated, which reduces the Federal Reserve’s room to cut rates. The market currently prices in little near-term Fed movement. Bitcoin, which performs best in easing liquidity environments, is caught between institutional accumulation demand and a macro backdrop that keeps capital defensive. That tension is precisely why BTC has held its war range rather than breaking either way.

As crypto.news noted, the Strait of Hormuz situation is the single most important variable. Tonight’s 8 PM ET deadline is the clearest binary event Bitcoin has faced in the six weeks since the war began.

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Iran War Cuts Local Hashrate but Global Bitcoin Network Holds Firm

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Iran War Cuts Local Hashrate but Global Bitcoin Network Holds Firm

Iran’s hashrate has plummeted over the past quarter amid an ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, though the war itself has not dragged down global hashrate, according to a new report from Hashrate Index.

Iran has lost roughly 7 exahashes per second (EH/s) quarter-over-quarter, said Ian Philpot, marketing director at Luxor Technology, in a report published Monday. The country’s hashrate now sits at about 2 EH/s according to the Hashrate Index heatmap.

Philpot noted that while the regional conflict clearly impacted Iran, it could have triggered a ripple effect for neighboring countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Oman, yet so far, neither has been affected.  

“The impact was contained to Iran; neighboring UAE and Oman remained stable. The global hashrate at ~1,000 EH/s persists because no single region has enough capacity to threaten network continuity. Regional disruptions redistribute hashrate rather than destroy it,” he said.

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The Middle East conflict escalated in February after the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, which has led to retaliatory strikes from both sides. A deal for a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran was reached on Tuesday. Iran is estimated to have 427,000 active Bitcoin (BTC) mining rigs.

Miners are the backbone of the Bitcoin network. They validate and record all Bitcoin transactions into new blocks. The more miners participate, the higher the hashrate, which helps secure the network.

Global hashrate down due to Bitcoin price slump

The 30-day simple moving average network global hashrate declined from 1,066 EH/s in Q1 to around 1,004 EH/s in Q2, a 5.8% quarter-over-quarter decline that Philpot attributed to a slump in Bitcoin prices. 

Miners earn Bitcoin for each block they solve, but with prices down, those rewards do not always cover the cost of running their rigs.

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Meanwhile, Bitcoin has fallen more than 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, set in October, pushing hash prices to record lows. Philpot said mining profitability, not energy costs or regulatory policy, is the primary driver of today’s geographic shifts in hashrate.

“At these levels, older-generation equipment, 25+ J/TH efficiency, operates at negative gross margins, forcing shutdown. We estimate 252 EH/s of marginal capacity sits offline—most legacy hardware already retired,” he added.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags $210K Bitcoin block reward

“This pattern is cyclical. Mining profitability drives machine deployment and retirement more than energy costs or regulatory frameworks. Geographic shifts observed in Q1 and Q2 reflect operators testing which regions can sustain operations once the down-cycle ends and hashprice normalizes.”

Top three countries control 65.6% of the global hashrate

The US holds the largest share of global hashrate at over 37%, followed by Russia at around 17% and China at 12%, according to the Hashrate Index heatmap.

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US miners contribute the largest share of global hashrate. Source: Hashrate Index

Philpot said the hashrate among the largest players is roughly flat, however the composition is changing, with legacy equipment forced offline and modern hardware deployed selectively to regions where it can remain profitable long term.

“Growth is characterized by deployment of modern hardware alongside retirement of legacy equipment. Canada shows similar dynamics: slight quarter-over-quarter pullback but positive year-over-year growth, reflecting optimization rather than exodus,” he added.

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