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SEC’s Crypto Guidance Ends Years of Regulatory Ambiguity But Key Questions Remain

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SEC's Crypto Guidance Ends Years of Regulatory Ambiguity But Key Questions Remain

Lawyers say the joint SEC-CFTC framework is the most significant crypto regulatory development in years. But who decides when a token sheds its investment contract status, and what happens to DeFi, are still unanswered.

The SEC and CFTC’s landmark crypto taxonomy has been widely hailed as a decisive break from years of regulatory limbo but legal experts say one of its most consequential provisions raises more questions than it answers, with no formal process for issuers to find out if they’ve gotten it right.

At issue is the guidance’s framework for when a token initially sold as part of an investment contract can “separate” from that contract and trade freely.

Under the release, a non-security token becomes subject to an investment contract when an issuer sells it with promises to undertake “essential managerial efforts.” That investment contract ends when the issuer either fulfills those promises or publicly abandons the project.

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But the document provides no mechanism for an issuer to obtain a definitive determination, leaving founders to make the call themselves, with enforcement as the backstop.

“This is the biggest open question in the entire 68 pages,” said Mike Katz, partner at law firm Manatt, Phelps & Phillip. “You are left to make that judgment yourself, and if the SEC disagrees, you find out in an enforcement action.”

Consider a team that launches a token promising a decentralized exchange, a governance module, and a cross-chain bridge. Two years later, the DEX and the governance module are live, but the bridge is still in development. Are the promises fulfilled? Partially? Does partial delivery count?

“The guidance does not say,” Katz said, “and there is no application process, no safe harbor letter, no bright-line test.”

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Promising Less

Steve Yelderman, General Counsel of Etherealize, argues the provision inverts the incentive structure of the prior regime, where detailed roadmaps could be weaponized against founders in enforcement actions, and tokens could be stuck in regulatory limbo with no path out.

“Promising less can be a good thing,” he said. “A big point of the securities laws is to discourage managers from making false promises to investors,” Yelderman said. “If the law is making people think twice before making difficult promises, that’s not perverse, that’s the law working as intended.”

Yelderman also flagged a widely misread nuance in the provision.

“It’s not that the token sheds its security status,” he clarified. “We’re talking about when and how non-security tokens might be sold subject to an investment contract. The token itself was always a non-security — what changes is whether the surrounding transaction is a securities transaction.”

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DeFi’s Hard Question

The guidance’s most notable silence is on fully permissionless DeFi protocols, platforms with no identifiable issuer, no pre-sale, and governance controlled entirely by on-chain token holders.

The SEC’s entire investment contract framework is built around an identifiable issuer making identifiable promises through official channels. That framework does not map when there is no one to hold responsible for “essential managerial efforts.”

Katz was direct.

“The SEC built a framework for the cases it knows how to analyze, centralized launches with identifiable actors. and deferred the cases it does not.” he said. “Silence from a regulator is not the same as approval.”

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He expects a forthcoming rulemaking to include an “innovation exemption” that Chair Paul Atkins has referenced publicly, but said DeFi’s hard questions may not be resolved until that rulemaking arrives.

Yelderman said the document provides extensive characteristics for what constitutes a digital commodity, the category most mature DeFi governance tokens aspire to, and the 16 named examples give projects a concrete benchmark.

“Early on, a new DeFi protocol might need to navigate the investment contract guidance, depending on how it was initially funded and launched,” he said. “But the end game would be for the governance tokens to be recognized as a digital commodity. And there is a lot of guidance on the characteristics of digital commodities, which a project could use to get there with reasonable precision.”

Fractionalized NFTs

The guidance formally classifies NFTs and digital collectibles as non-securities, while flagging fractionalization as a potential securities offering.

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Dividing a single NFT into fungible fractional shares, the document said, can constitute a securities offering because it introduces elements of shared investment and reliance on managerial efforts.

Yelderman said he thinks the market has overread the section. “Owning a digital collectible isn’t a security, any more than owning a physical Pokémon card would be,” he said. “But if you start doing things like fractionalizing the ownership, outsourcing management, and creating a fund to invest in collectibles, you need to do the full analysis. That’s all they’re saying, in my opinion.”

Katz was less sanguine.

“For protocols that have been offering fractionalization as a core product, this guidance is not ambiguous,” he said. “The SEC is saying: we see what you are doing, we get it, and it is a securities offering.”

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Both Reg D and Reg A+ registration pathways exist, he noted, but represent a substantial compliance lift that most of these platforms have not taken on.

A Watershed Moment

Against that backdrop of open questions, experts were emphatic that the guidance represents a watershed moment for the industry. The core shift, according to Katz, is that the SEC has effectively reversed the presumption that defined the Gensler era.

“The Gensler-era position was that virtually every token was a security until proven otherwise,” Katz said. “This guidance inverts that presumption. Three of the five categories in the taxonomy are explicitly non-securities. The Commission is telling the market: we are regulating securities, not regulating crypto.”

For Yelderman, having any guidance at all is already significant.

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“For years some in the government very openly used ambiguity and uncertainty to their strategic advantage,” he said. “It’s very good to see that era fully brought to a close.”

Arguably more important than any single classification, Katz said, is the fact that both agencies co-signed the taxonomy. It’s the first time the SEC and CFTC have publicly agreed on which assets belong to whom. “

David Carlisle, VP of Policy and Regulatory Affairs at Elliptic, said the guidance carries particular weight for traditional financial institutions that have been sitting on the sidelines.

“A more consistent taxonomy and aligned oversight give firms a clearer foundation to engage with digital assets in the US,” he said, “especially traditional financial institutions that have been reluctant to undertake certain activities owing to regulatory ambiguity.”

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What Comes Next

The guidance is an interpretive release, not a formal rulemaking, which means it carries persuasive authority but does not bind future administrations. Chairman Atkins has signaled that formal rulemaking is forthcoming. Until that happens, Katz said, “this is a strong signal, not a guarantee.”

The SEC has invited public comment on the taxonomy and indicated it may refine the framework based on feedback, leaving open the possibility that some of the gray zones identified by legal experts could be addressed before the ink dries on a final rule.

For Carlisle, the shift in dynamic is already meaningful regardless of what comes next.

“The challenge now shifts to applying the SEC/CFTC interpretation in practice,” he said. “But there is now a more meaningful conceptual framework they can use to do so.”

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Pi Network’s PI token looks like a busted growth story, not a safe bet, where will price go?

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Pi Network’s PI token trades around 0.17–0.19 dollars, 94% below its peak, with most serious models clustering around a 0.15–0.35 dollar, high‑risk, low‑conviction range for the next 12–18 months.

Summary

  • PI changes hands near 0.17–0.19 dollars with a roughly 1.7–1.8 billion dollar market cap and about 9.8 billion coins in circulation, down around 94% from its 2.99‑dollar all‑time high.
  • Gate and CoinCodex forecasts cluster around a 2026 band of roughly 0.15–0.30 dollars, while CoinStats’ more optimistic scenarios push into the 0.40–0.60‑dollar range only if adoption and sentiment improve sharply.
  • A sober journalistic call puts the defensible 12–18‑month corridor at 0.15–0.35 dollars, skewed lower unless Pi delivers real usage, with 70–90% drawdowns and sharp “liquidity event” rallies always on the table.

Pi Network’s PI (PI) token is trading around 0.17–0.19 dollars today, with a market cap near 1.7–1.8 billion dollars and roughly 9.8 billion coins in circulation against a 100‑billion maximum supply. In plain terms, you are looking at a mid‑cap, highly dilutive altcoin that has already retraced sharply from its speculative peak yet still trades mostly on narrative, not cash‑flow or clear on‑chain usage.

Pi Network’s PI token looks like a busted growth story, not a safe bet, where will price go? - 1

Over the last week, Pi has been weak: spot is down more than 30% on some fiat pairs, even as today’s session shows a 7% bounce in rupee terms, a classic dead‑cat profile in crypto microstructure. Daily volume sits in the mid‑tens of millions of dollars, which is enough for short‑term traders to move price violently but nowhere near the liquidity profile of major Layer 1s. CoinStats notes Pi changing hands near 0.17 dollars in March 2026, roughly 94% below its 2.99‑dollar all‑time high from early 2025, underscoring how brutal the post‑launch repricing has been. In equity‑market language, this is what you’d call a busted growth story still trying to prove it deserves its prior multiple.

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Forward‑looking models are all over the map, which tells you more about uncertainty than about destiny. Gate’s internal research sees Pi averaging about 0.18–0.21 dollars in 2026, with a band from roughly 0.16 to 0.27 dollars, effectively saying “sideways chop around current levels.” CoinCodex’s quantitative framework pushes a little higher, flagging the possibility of Pi closing 2026 closer to 0.42 dollars if sentiment and technicals co‑operate, which would be about a low‑triple‑digit percentage gain from here. CoinStats, running multi‑scenario AI modelling, sketches a conservative 2026 year‑end corridor of 0.25–0.35 dollars, a base case of 0.40–0.60 dollars, and an aggressive path that could theoretically justify 0.80–1.50 dollars if adoption and execution surprise to the upside.

Strip away the model branding and you can reduce the next 12–24 months to three simple regimes. In the bear regime, Pi stays supply‑heavy and demand‑light: unlocks continue, user activity underwhelms, the broader altcoin complex remains risk‑off, and Pi bleeds into the 0.10–0.15‑dollar zone as models like CoinCodex’s near‑term projections already hint at. In the base regime, Pi grinds sideways with a mild upward bias, respecting the 0.15–0.30‑dollar range implied by exchange research and the lower bands of CoinStats’ scenarios, tracking altcoin beta rather than generating its own idiosyncratic bid. In the bull regime, Pi converts its large user base into actual on‑chain throughput, improves liquidity and listings, and rides a risk‑on phase in crypto, which is where CoinStats’ 0.40–0.60‑dollar 2026 base case and 1‑dollar‑plus long‑term scenarios become plausible rather than laughable.

The most defensible 12–18‑month corridor is 0.15–0.35 dollars, skewed toward the lower half unless Pi starts printing real usage metrics and the wider market turns decisively bullish. Upside tails above 0.40 dollars exist, but they require both project execution and macro risk appetite; downside tails into 0.10 dollars or below remain very real if capital continues to leak out of speculative L1 narratives. Size exposure the way you would a thin, story‑stock in equities: assume 70–90% drawdowns are always on the table, treat sharp rallies as liquidity events rather than validation, and never confuse modelled price “targets” with guarantees.

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Kalshi gets temporary Nevada ban in dispute over sports betting

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U.S. Federal Reserve researchers sing praises of prediction markets

Kalshi is now under a two-week restraining order barring bets in Nevada while a legal debate proceeds over the longer-term status of prediction markets there.

The First Judicial District Court of Nevada issued a 14-day order on Friday, directing the platform to cease offering event contracts in that state. A federal appeals court cleared the way on Thursday for state regulators to seek the order, which the Nevada Gaming Control Board first sought in 2025, when it told Kalshi to cease its sports contracts.

Kalshi had argued that the case should be moved to federal court, but the appeals court sent it back to Nevada, despite the company’s claim that it “faces imminent harm” from the state’s actions.

On Friday, the state court halted Kalshi’s sports, entertainment and election bets as the parties continue to argue over the relative authority of the state regulators to govern event-contract businesses.

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The Nevada judge determined that the gaming board can’t properly function under these circumstances, and “an unlicensed participant beyond the Board’s control, such as Kalshi, obstructs the Board’s ability to fulfill its statutory functions.” The court is following up with an April 3 hearing.

A spokesman for Kalshi declined to comment on the Nevada development. Kalshi is being sued or prosecuted in several states on similar grounds. Earlier this week, Arizona’s attorney general charged Kalshi with running an unlicensed gambling business and offering illegal election wagering.

Meanwhile, Chairman Mike Selig of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is insisting that his federal agency actually has proper authority over the markets, not the states. He filed a court brief stating that argument and has repeated it in a number of recent public appearances, promising he’ll fight the states on that point. He’s also begun moving on establishing CFTC policies in prediction markets.

Federal regulation generally supersedes state regulation, but the courts may need to weigh in on who is properly entitled to the jurisdiction. Major League Baseball, for one, has thrown in with the CFTC, signing a memorandum of understanding this week on oversight of prediction markets and also inking a partnership with Polymarket.

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Read More: CFTC’s Selig opens legal dispute against states getting in way of prediction markets

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Crypto firms cut jobs as bear market and AI shift bite

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Crypto firms cut jobs as bear market and AI shift bite

An ongoing bear market combined with wider global economic struggles has hit crypto firms hard, causing delays, staff layoffs, and AI pivots. 

This week, crypto protocol Algorand announced it was reluctantly reducing its workforce by 25%. 

Algorand claimed the “tough” layoff was in response to “the uncertain global macro environment as well as the broader downturn in crypto markets.”

Indeed, as the year continues, bitcoin’s price is struggling to gain upward momentum after dropping to $63,000 in late February.

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The escalating war between the US, Irael and Iran is also causing the price of oil to rocket, and threatens deeper economic turmoil across the globe.

Crypto layoffs, cuts, and delays

Firms including Gemini, Messari, Crypto.com, OP Labs, OpenSea, and Kraken, have announced various cuts to their operations, be it through trimming staff or delaying planned operations.

Meanwhile, Crypto.com announced a 12% staff layoff yesterday while citing an AI pivot. The firm’s CEO, Kris Marszalek, claimed the roles of the fired staff “do not adapt in our new world.”

A statement from crypto.com’s CEO Kris Marszalek on the AI pivot.

Read more: Mass crypto layoffs are a short-term solution with long-term consequences

Gemini similarly let 25% of its staff go in February, claiming AI has allowed its workforce to operate more efficiently with fewer staff. 

Gemini also let three of its execs go, including Chief Operating Officer Marshall Beard, Chief Financial Officer Dan Chen, and Chief Legal Officer Tyler Meade.

On Monday, crypto analytics firm Messari announced that it’s “doubling down” on becoming an “AI-first company,” and announced that it had let various team members go as new CEO, Diran Li, took the reins. 

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Protocol contributor OP Labs fired 20 of its staff last week in a memo that also alluded to the possibility of an AI pivot. CEO Jing Wang said, “This is about doing fewer things well, making decisions faster, and reducing coordination overhead.”

These all follow what was one of the more dramatic AI pivots from Jack Dorsey’s Block, which fired 50% of its staff (around 4,000 people) while citing the advancements AI offers to workplace efficiency.  

Jack Dorsey’s cuts caused the price of Block’s stock to surge 20%.

Read more: How bombing Iran shifted oil and bitcoin prices

This week, the NFT platform OpenSea announced that it was delaying the launch of its $SEA token because of “challenging” market conditions across crypto that may affect its launch. 

Another delay was announced yesterday to Kraken’s initial public offering (IPO). According to sources familiar with the matter, Kraken’s parent company, Payward, is pausing the IPO plans until “market conditions improve.”

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Layoffs often come with reputational costs and further long-term consequences down the line, as staff are left burdened with the workloads of their departed teammates.

However, with more companies citing AI as a reason for workforce reduction, it’s hard to ignore its ability to mitigate the burden of cutting staff.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin clings to $69k support as ETFs flip and fear index sinks

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Bitcoin traders face possible 70% drawdown with $38k target in play

Bitcoin is holding just below $70k after a hawkish FOMC, ETF outflows, and a shift to Fear, with weak long conviction but easing miner selling and difficulty.

Bitcoin is trading above $69,900 on Friday evening, clinging to key support levels after a bruising week shaped by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, a reversal in ETF flows, and broad risk-off sentiment across global markets. The crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 28 — deep in Fear territory — as investors weigh the durability of BTC’s recovery against a deteriorating macro backdrop.

The week’s defining moment came on Wednesday, when the Fed held rates steady at its March FOMC meeting but signaled that fewer rate cuts are likely in 2026 than previously expected. Bitcoin fell roughly 5% in the immediate aftermath, sliding from near $74,000 to test the $70,000 level, as institutional players moved to de-risk. The reaction was compounded by a sharp reversal in ETF flows: after a highly bullish seven-day inflow streak that had brought in over $1.1 billion, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a $129 million net outflow on Wednesday alone — snapping the positive run and rattling sentiment.

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The sell-off dragged the broader crypto market with it. Ethereum and Solana each fell 5–6% in tandem, confirming that Bitcoin’s near-term correlation with risk assets remains elevated. With BTC’s 30-day correlation to the S&P 500 sitting at 0.74 — the highest of 2026 — the asset is currently trading less like a macro hedge and more like a high-beta tech proxy, a dynamic that leaves it exposed to any further deterioration in equity markets.

Despite the fear reading, there are structural factors that have prevented a more severe breakdown. Open interest data tracked by CoinGlass shows that during yesterday’s dip to $68,750, shorts were actively adding positions — forming what the firm described as a “clean short position buildup.” The price has since rebounded, though OI has not increased meaningfully, suggesting range-bound rather than trending conditions. The lack of new long entry confirms that conviction on the buy side remains cautious, but the shorts have also not fully pressed their advantage.

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On the supply side, the picture is more constructive. Miner selling pressure — a persistent headwind throughout the first quarter — is showing signs of fading, with net miner outflows down 82% from their February peak. A significant difficulty adjustment tonight, expected to drop ~7.5%, will further ease cost pressure on the mining industry and reduce near-term forced selling from that cohort.

For now, Bitcoin finds itself in a holding pattern: above the critical $66,827 level where over $1.87 billion in leveraged longs sit exposed, but well below the $73,757 resistance that would trigger a short squeeze. With macro uncertainty elevated, geopolitical tensions unresolved, and sentiment firmly in fear, the burden of proof lies with the bulls to demonstrate fresh conviction before the market can credibly call the bottom in.

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Bhutan has sold over $110m in Bitcoin as sovereign stack drops 65%

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El Salvador bets on $100m tokenized SME equity via Stakiny

Bhutan has sold over $110m in Bitcoin in 2026, cutting sovereign holdings by about 65% from their peak as Druk Holding shifts from mining-led accumulation to steady liquidation.

Summary

  • Druk Holding & Investments has offloaded more than $110m in BTC this year, including a 973 BTC transfer worth about $72.3m on March 17–18 routed partly through QCP Capital and Binance.
  • Bhutan’s stash has shrunk from roughly 13,000 BTC (over $1.4b and 40% of GDP at peak) to around 5,400 BTC worth about $374m, with no inflows over $100k in more than a year, implying mining has largely stopped.
  • The kingdom’s methodical $5–10m clip sales, built on hydropower-funded mining since 2019, now act as a recurring sovereign overhang for Bitcoin just as macro conditions and sentiment remain fragile.

The Kingdom of Bhutan has quietly become one of the most closely watched sovereign Bitcoin sellers of 2026, with its state investment arm offloading more than $110 million worth of BTC since the start of the year — a systematic drawdown that has cut its holdings by 65% from their peak and raised questions about the future of one of crypto’s most unlikely national success stories.

The latest and largest transaction occurred on March 17 and 18, when Druk Holding & Investments — the sovereign wealth fund that manages Bhutan’s digital asset reserves — transferred 973 BTC worth approximately $72.3 million across multiple addresses. Among the recipients was QCP Capital, a Singapore-based institutional trading firm, indicating structured OTC selling designed to minimize market impact rather than distressed dumping onto open exchanges. A portion was also directed toward Binance hot wallets.

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Bhutan’s Bitcoin journey began in 2019, when the country began quietly mining BTC using surplus hydroelectric power from its Himalayan rivers — a near-zero marginal cost energy source that made mining highly profitable even at modest price levels. At its peak, Bhutan held approximately 13,000 BTC, valued at over $1.4 billion — a sum representing more than 40% of the country’s entire gross domestic product at the time. Those holdings have since contracted to roughly 5,400 BTC, worth around $374 million at current prices.

A critical detail flagged by on-chain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence adds a new dimension to the story: Bhutan has not recorded a Bitcoin inflow of over $100,000 in more than a year. This strongly suggests the country has halted or severely curtailed its mining operations, shifting from an accumulation-and-hold strategy to a pure liquidation mode. The reasons remain officially unconfirmed, but analysts have pointed to declining mining profitability following the April 2024 halving, rising operational costs, and competing demands on the country’s hydropower infrastructure.

The selling pattern has been methodical rather than reactive. Bhutan typically transacts in $5–10 million clips, with occasional larger tranches when market conditions are favorable. The $72.3 million move this week is an outlier in size, suggesting either an acceleration of the drawdown timeline or an opportunistic decision to lock in prices near the $71,000 level before further deterioration.

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For the broader market, the sustained presence of sovereign-scale selling at these volumes is a non-trivial headwind. Unlike retail or even institutional fund selling, sovereign liquidations tend to be price-insensitive and recurring — features that can create persistent ceiling pressure on any attempted recovery. As Bitcoin navigates a fragile macro environment with fear sentiment elevated and ETF flows recently reversing, Bhutan’s quiet but relentless selling is one more structural force the bulls must absorb on the path back to new highs.

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Morgan Stanley Pushes Closer to Bitcoin ETF With Amended SEC Filing

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Morgan Stanley Pushes Closer to Bitcoin ETF With Amended SEC Filing

Morgan Stanley filed a second amended S-1 for its proposed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), detailing seed capital, trading partners and listing plans as the Wall Street bank moves closer to launching the product under the ticker MSBT.

The amended filing says the trust expects to raise $1 million through the sale of 50,000 initial seed shares to its delegated sponsor ahead of listing on NYSE Arca, then use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin (BTC) for the fund. Morgan Stanley said the fund remains subject to regulatory approval before it can begin trading.

The filing lists Jane Street, Virtu Americas and Macquarie Capital as authorized participants, allowing them to create or redeem large blocks of shares and profit from the arbitrage between Bitcoin’s price and the ETF’s share price. This keeps the ETF’s price close to the value of Bitcoin.

Morgan Stanley recommended a 2% to 4% allocation to crypto portfolios for investors and financial advisers in October 2025 and allowed its financial advisors to recommend crypto funds to clients with individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and 401(k)s.

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Morgan Stanley S-1 filing amendment. Source: SEC.gov

“Morgan Stanley is moving from distributing BlackRock’s IBIT to issuing its own product, capturing management fees directly rather than earning distribution commissions,” Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of RedStone, told Cointelegraph, adding that the bank’s 15,000 financial advisors will introduce a real “distribution muscle” for the ETF.

Related: Morgan Stanley, other top holders add Bitmine exposure amid sell-off

Wall Street moves closer to crypto funds

The move adds to a broader push by large US financial institutions to expand access to crypto-related products.

On Jan. 5, 2026, the second-largest US bank, Bank of America, began allowing advisers in its wealth management businesses to recommend exposure to four Bitcoin ETFs, which were previously only available upon request, Cointelegraph reported. 

A day earlier, Vanguard, the world’s second-largest asset manager, enabled crypto ETF trading for its clients, reversing its previous stance on digital asset ETFs.

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Related: Wells Fargo sees ‘YOLO’ trade driving $150B into Bitcoin and risk assets

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset management firm, recommended an up to 2% Bitcoin allocation to its clients in December 2024.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation — Santiment founder

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