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SEI Drops 94% to $0.06: Can This “Do or Die” Demand Zone Trigger a 100x Recovery?

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • SEI has dropped nearly 94% from its $1.145 all-time high, now trading near a critical $0.06 demand zone.
  • The $0.065–$0.045 range is flagged as a high-risk accumulation zone based strictly on descending channel structure.
  • A weekly close below $0.040 would fully invalidate the current bullish setup and signal deeper price decline.
  • Analysts outline expansion targets from $0.157 up to $5.05, contingent on a confirmed weekly Change of Character.

SEI is trading near $0.06, testing a critical macro demand zone after a steep price decline. The cryptocurrency has dropped approximately 94% from its all-time high of $1.145.

Technical analysts are now watching the lower boundary of a long-term descending parallel channel closely. Patient investors are being directed toward the $0.065–$0.045 range as a potential accumulation window before any structural trend shift occurs.

SEI Tests Long-Term Channel Support After Historic Markdown

SEI has been confined within a descending parallel channel since its 2024 all-time high. This channel structure has consistently produced lower highs and lower lows across multiple timeframes.

The pattern reflects prolonged selling pressure without any confirmed bullish reversal on higher timeframes. At present, the lower boundary of this channel serves as the only remaining structural reference for traders.

The $0.160 support level, previously a major price floor for SEI, has since flipped into strong resistance. This classic support-resistance role reversal has made recovery attempts difficult for buyers.

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Each rally attempt toward that region has been met with sustained selling activity. The breakdown of all prior historical support levels reinforces the significance of this technical shift.

Crypto analyst Crypto Patel posted on X, stating that SEI was trading “at the lower boundary of a macro descending parallel channel after an aggressive ~94% markdown.”

The post further described this zone as a “Do or Die” demand area for the asset. The framing reflects the absence of any conventional support structure below current prices. Only channel mechanics are defining the structural floor at this stage.

Given this backdrop, the current setup carries elevated risk for traders entering positions. However, the zone between $0.065 and $0.045 is being flagged as a high-risk accumulation region for patient capital.

A weekly close below $0.040 would fully invalidate the current bullish thesis. Traders are advised to watch weekly candle closures for early confirmation signals.

SEI Price Targets Outlined as L1 Narrative Rotation Comes Into Focus

Should SEI successfully hold the current demand zone, the analysis identifies several expansion targets. These levels range from $0.157 upward through $0.351, $0.701, $1.146, $2.013, and ultimately $5.05.

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Each target corresponds to prior structural areas or measured projection levels from the channel. Reaching those targets would require a confirmed market structure shift across higher timeframes.

A potential weekly Change of Character, or CHoCH, is being monitored as a primary confirmation trigger. A CHoCH would signal a shift in price behavior from bearish to early bullish structure.

Without that confirmation, the descending trend technically remains intact and active. Analysts emphasize that buyers need structure to change before positioning aggressively.

The broader 2026–2027 recovery case ties closely to Layer-1 narrative rotation in the crypto market. L1 blockchains have historically attracted capital rotation during mid-to-late altcoin market cycles.

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SEI’s ongoing ecosystem expansion could support renewed interest if market sentiment improves broadly. External macro conditions, however, remain a variable that technical analysis alone cannot address.

Crypto Patel’s analysis also noted that all prior support levels have been invalidated for SEI. The accumulation zone is derived strictly from channel structure and price action, not traditional supply-demand zones.

This makes current price behavior more challenging to interpret using conventional technical frameworks. The channel’s lower boundary remains the sole structural anchor guiding current market analysis.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin’s Leverage Ratio Drops Sharply

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Analysts Eye 'Insane Reversal' in Markets as Bitcoin Touched $70K


Excess leverage in crypto markets has virtually dissappeared which could result in a healthier spot-based market recovery, say analysts.

Global tensions, particularly the Iran-US conflict, have rattled crypto markets and pushed investors away from risk-taking.

“Periods like this are generally not favorable for risk-taking, and this can be clearly observed in the sharp decline of Bitcoin’s Estimated Leverage Ratio on Binance,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost on Monday.

The metric measures the intensity with which investors use leverage and is calculated by comparing the futures Open Interest (OI) with the amount of BTC reserves held on the exchange. Since February, this ratio has fallen sharply from 0.198 to 0.152 — coinciding with Bitcoin dropping from $96,000to $69,000.

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A Healthier Market Dynamic

If the ratio remains low while Bitcoin consolidates, it likely signals that spot buying rather than leveraged speculation is becoming the dominant price driver, which is a generally healthier dynamic.

“Lower leverage generally means less systemic pressure, which can help stabilize price action before the market enters a new directional phase.”

In a separate post, CryptoQuant analyst “IT tech” said that “bottom callers are multiplying.” One metric just hit 29 consecutive days in distress territory, they added, highlighting the Bitcoin long-term holder-to-short-term holder SOPR ratio, which is at 0.89.

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“Recent buyers are underwater. LTHs aren’t selling, but they’re not absorbing either. STH capitulation building, but nowhere near extremes. Calling a structural low here is premature.”

Meanwhile, Glassnode reported on Monday that momentum has “firmed modestly,” with RSI lifting from recent lows, “but price action still lacks the strength of a decisive bullish shift.”

“Spot activity remains subdued, with lower trading volume pointing to softer participation even as conditions begin to stabilize.”

Crypto Market Outlook

Spot markets have climbed 4.3% on the day to reach $2.46 trillion in a move that follows US President Trump’s comments that the war with Iran could be “over soon.” Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000 in early trading in Asia on Tuesday as oil prices tanked 28% from Monday’s high of $120.

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Ether remained weak, but it was holding above the $2,000 level at the time of writing. Meanwhile, some altcoins were seeing larger gains, including Hyperliquid and Zcash, which surged more than 11% each.

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US to Retry Roman Storm After Mixed Verdict

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US to Retry Roman Storm After Mixed Verdict

US prosecutors have requested a retrial of crypto mixer Tornado Cash co-founder Roman Storm after a jury failed to reach a unanimous verdict on two charges at his trial last year.

US Attorney for Manhattan Jay Clayton asked federal Judge Katherine Polk Failla in a letter on Monday for a trial date to retry Storm on charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to violate sanctions.

The letter asked the court for the retrial to begin on or around Oct. 5 to 12, with the trial expected to last three weeks. It said prosecutors were prepared to retry the case as early as spring, between March and May, but Storm’s defense lawyers said they weren’t available until late 2026.

In August, a jury convicted Storm of conspiring to operate an unlicensed money transmitting business, but was deadlocked on the money laundering and sanctions violation conspiracy charges, which has allowed prosecutors to retry those charges.

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Storm had pleaded not guilty and asked Judge Polk Failla in October to acquit him of the money transmitting charge, arguing prosecutors failed to prove he intended to help bad actors use Tornado Cash.

Clayton wrote in his letter that Storm’s lawyers told prosecutors that setting a new trial date was premature due to the pending acquittal motion, which wouldn’t be resolved until early April, when it is scheduled for argument.

Prosecutors hope for “different answer,” says Storm

Storm posted on X that the two counts the government plans to retry him on could see him spend “up to 40 years in federal prison. For writing open-source code. For a protocol I don’t control. For transactions I never touched.”

“A jury already couldn’t agree this was criminal. But the SDNY [Southern District of New York] prosecutors want to keep trying with the hope of getting a different answer,” he added.

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Amanda Tuminelli, the legal chief at crypto advocacy group the DeFi Education Fund, said the Justice Department’s decision to retry Storm was “incredibly disappointing.”

Source: Amanda Tuminelli

“Despite failing to convince a jury the first time around, despite making obvious mistakes like calling irrelevant witnesses and not understanding the forensic analysis of their own blockchain evidence, and despite multiple legal and logical fallacies to their allegations of third-party dev liability, the SDNY will retry Roman Storm,” she added.

Related: DOJ finalizes $400M crypto forfeiture in Helix Bitcoin mixer case

Clayton’s letter comes as a report that the US Treasury submitted to Congress this month acknowledged some lawful uses of crypto mixers, including those who use such services “to maintain more privacy in their consumer spending habits.”

In his X post, Storm also noted that US Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche had issued a memo in April saying the Justice Department “is not a digital assets regulator,” and the agency would “no longer pursue litigation or enforcement actions that have the effect of superimposing regulatory frameworks on digital assets.”

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“Same country, same DOJ — just filed to retry me anyway,” Storm said.

Magazine: Can privacy survive in US crypto policy after Roman Storm’s conviction?