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Short-term bitcoin holders send $1.8 billion in BTC to exchanges after $74,000 rally

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Bitcoin bull trap (TradingView)

Bitcoin’s move to a one-month high of $74,000 this week triggered a wave of profit-taking from short-term traders, according to data from CryptoQuant.

The largest cryptocurrency is trading around $69,000 after losing momentum from Wednesday’s break above $70,000.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost explains that short-term holders transferred more than 27,000 BTC ($1.8 billion) to exchanges in profit over the past 24 hours — one of the largest spikes in recent months.

The only short-term investors currently in profit are those who accumulated bitcoin between one week and one month ago, with a realized price of roughly $68,000, suggesting some recent buyers are choosing to lock in gains rather than extend their positions.

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Short-term holders are typically the most reactive group in the market, and their selling reflects lingering caution in light of the ongoing war in Iran.

CoinDesk analysis on Wednesday identified a potential bull trap as price action mirrored that in January when price broke out to $98,000 before taking a leg lower.

And that leg lower occurred on Friday, accelerated by comments from U.S. president Donald Trump who demanded that Iran unconditionally surrenders – a move that also sent the price of oil soaring.

Bitcoin bull trap (TradingView)
Bitcoin bull trap (TradingView)

Despite the profit-taking, broader factors are helping support bitcoin’s rally according to Adrian Fritz, chief investment strategist at 21Shares.

Fritz said traders are increasingly betting that the Clarity Act, a U.S. digital asset market structure bill, could pass by year-end. Prediction markets currently price the probability at around 70%, though Fritz noted these markets are relatively illiquid.

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He also pointed to rising geopolitical tensions and strong institutional demand as key drivers.

Some investors are increasingly viewing bitcoin as a “gold beta” trade, rotating into the asset after gold’s recent rally. Meanwhile, spot bitcoin ETFs have shown resilience, with holdings down only about 5% during the recent pullback and over $700 million in net inflows this week.

While political developments may have helped spark the move, Fritz said the rally is being sustained by geopolitical hedging and growing institutional conviction in the asset.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

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Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

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Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.