The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has launched its 2026 Regulatory Agenda.

Meant to ease compliance rules for crypto companies and offer regulatory safeguards for transactions on the blockchain, the agenda includes 38 proposed rules, with key initiatives focusing on tokenization standards, modernization of custody for on-chain assets, and reduction of compliance costs for public companies.

SEC Reveals its Crypto Plan for 2026

The regulator is considering a change to its rules that would expand the definition of “qualified custodian” to give firms managing tokenized assets a clearer set of rules. It also includes a safe-harbor framework for early-stage crypto projects that would give developers a defined period to build and test tokenized products under lighter compliance obligations.

The SEC is reviewing broker-dealer financial responsibility and record-keeping requirements for digital assets, and making changes that will impact how they protect their clients’ crypto, to replace traditional securities standards with ones better suited for crypto.

The agency also proposes Crypto Market Structure Amendments to revise the rules governing the trading of cryptocurrencies on alternative trading systems.

The agenda also suggests lowering costs for companies looking to go public by updating disclosure forms and modifying the eligibility for simplified registration, which the SEC thinks could spur more domestic IPOs.

Atkins Backs US Crypto Push

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins said the regulator has made a lot of progress more than a year into his tenure, noting that it aims to support President Trump’s goal of making America the crypto capital of the world.

“We are embracing innovation to bring more products onshore, creating clear rules of the road for capital raising with crypto assets, and providing clarity as to how market participants can custody and facilitate trading of tokenized securities on-chain,” he wrote.

Atkins also stressed that investor protection measures will still be functional as the agency continues to pursue securities law violations, but said the main goal is to give businesses confidence to innovate in the U.S. market.

The proposals are yet to be approved and will now go through the public comment phase this month, with final rules expected to be considered later this year.

Meanwhile, the CLARITY Act missed the July 4 signing target after passing the House in 2025 and clearing the Senate in May, and the bill is now waiting for a full Senate floor vote, with lawmakers having a limited amount of time before the August recess to finish work on the crypto market structure bill.

The post SEC’s 2026 Agenda Has 38 Items, But Crypto and IPOs Are the Headliners appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Key Takeaways

• Bank of England confirms Farage’s lobbying had zero impact on digital pound strategy.
• Governor Bailey states the institution identified and rejected crypto-related pressure.
• Reform UK leader faces increasing questions about party funding and crypto donor connections.
• Connections to Tether-affiliated donors spark additional concerns about CBDC opposition.
• Central bank maintains digital pound development proceeds independently of political interference.

The Bank of England has confirmed that Nigel Farage’s attempts to sway its digital pound policy through direct lobbying proved unsuccessful. In a statement to Labour MP Joe Powell, Governor Andrew Bailey revealed that the institution successfully identified the lobbying efforts and maintained its independent stance. This disclosure has intensified examination of Farage’s connections to cryptocurrency-affiliated donors and the funding sources for Reform UK.

Central Bank Maintains Policy Independence After Farage Consultation

Bailey’s comments came in response to inquiries regarding a confidential September meeting with Farage at the Bank’s Threadneedle Street headquarters. During this consultation, multiple topics were discussed, including digital asset regulation and the Bank’s exploratory work on a digital pound. Officials confirmed that Farage’s representations resulted in no alterations to existing policy directions.

Farage had specifically pressed Bailey to abandon the central bank digital currency initiative. Speaking at a subsequent cryptocurrency industry gathering, he publicly acknowledged confronting Bailey about the programme. Bailey’s response emphasized the Bank’s capability to recognize advocacy efforts and maintain policy independence.

The controversy has acquired greater political significance following investigations into Farage’s financial backing. Reports suggest he received approximately £5 million from cryptocurrency entrepreneur Christopher Harborne. Harborne maintains business relationships with Tether, a prominent stablecoin operator that has publicly opposed central bank digital currency initiatives.

CBDC Controversy Intensifies Amid Reform UK Financial Questions

The BoE continues its exploratory work on a potential digital pound, though no implementation decision has been finalized. Bank officials emphasize that any progression would necessitate extensive additional research and comprehensive public engagement. Furthermore, both parliamentary approval and government backing would be prerequisites for any deployment.

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Farage has consistently positioned himself against central bank digital currencies, characterizing them as potential infringements on individual liberty. He has additionally suggested connections between the digital pound concept and digital identity infrastructure. However, the Bank of England’s official proposals contain no such integration.

Tether representatives have actively campaigned against the Bank’s digital pound research programme. Their position emphasizes concerns that a government-backed digital currency could undermine the market for private stablecoins. These arguments have attracted renewed attention given Harborne’s partial ownership stake in Tether alongside his financial support for Reform UK.

Parliamentary Resignation Amplifies Scrutiny of Cryptocurrency Connections

Farage stepped down from his parliamentary seat this week while maintaining his innocence regarding allegations about financial disclosure requirements. He advocated for a by-election positioned as a referendum on establishment politics. Nevertheless, mainstream political parties announced they would not field candidates in such a contest.

The parliamentary standards investigation now subjects Reform UK to enhanced oversight. Labour parliamentarians have demanded investigations into whether Farage violated regulations governing lobbying activities. Bailey’s correspondence reinforces the Bank’s position that its policy development remained insulated from external political influence.

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The Bank of England has also recently revised its regulatory framework for stablecoins following industry consultation. While it removed a proposed ceiling on stablecoin holdings, Bailey explicitly rejected suggestions that Farage influenced this modification. The central bank continues to assert that cryptocurrency policy formulation operates independently of political considerations.

 

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Federal Reserve officials were split last month about the future of interest rates, with policymakers entertaining scenarios in either direction, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday.

In Kevin Warsh‘s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes.

During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate as a “family fight” that ended with the committee unanimously voting to keep the Fed’s benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.

However, the minutes did not elaborate on any drama that had taken place and outlined divergent views from members without a bias to which way the committee was leaning. The dot-plot grid of individual members’ expectations, in which Warsh did not participate, narrowly tilted toward one rate hike this year, then a cut in each of the following two years.

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Asked to judge their most likely scenario, “many participants indicated that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range at the end of this year,” the minutes stated.

At the same time, the document also noted that “many other participants, however, assessed that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate would be above the current target range at the end of this year.”

“Participants noted that their future policy actions would depend on incoming information,” the minutes said.

Inflation has been on the rise for much of the past year, fueled earlier by President Donald Trump’s tariffs then exacerbated by the Iran war. Economists, though, have been split as to its durability, particularly since energy prices have plunged in recent weeks.

FOMC officials expressed “that inflation would remain elevated in the near term and then begin to decline as the effects of tariffs and energy price increases wane and other supply disruptions related to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz diminish. Participants judged that the risks to the inflation outlook were still tilted to the upside.”

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Participants also noted the impact of artificial intelligence, observing that the “ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure would likely sustain upward pressure on prices for technology products and electricity.” Warsh has stated he believes AI ultimately will be disinflationary due to productivity gains.

Markets reacted little to the minutes release, with stock market futures holding negative and Treasury yields rising.

“There’s some ambiguity in the minutes, suggesting several competing views on policy,” wrote Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. “If we can tease out any forward guidance from the minutes, it would be the committee is working through a wide range of scenarios and will not commit to a specific scenario until the incoming data provides necessary clarity.”

The meeting summary, which at 14 pages was somewhat shorter though not dramatically so than the typical release, followed Warsh’s repeated statements that Fed officials should communicate less about their future intentions.

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Keeping with that, the post-meeting statement was about one-third the size typical of the communique. Officials at the meeting seemed to approve of the tighter message.

“A number of participants noted that it was an opportune time to consider significant changes to the FOMC’s postmeeting statement,” the minutes said. “A majority of participants remarked that they saw advantages in shortening the statement.”

The document otherwise provided broad strokes of what happened during the two-day session in which the Federal Open Market Committee approved the terse statement saying it was keeping its benchmark interest rate unchanged and was resolved to restore “price stability” to the U.S. economy.

Notably, it removed language that had indicated a prior easing bias, as “most participants emphasized that they preferred not to repeat the Language.”

The post-meeting statement eliminated boilerplate language to describe economic conditions and the committee’s approach to achieving its twin goals of low inflation and full employment.

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The minutes come less than two months into Warsh’s term as chairman, a position to which he was nominated by Trump. For years. the president had criticized Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, for not pushing interest rates lower.
 
Since taking the reins, Warsh has pledged to revamp the Fed’s operations in a variety of manners.
 
At the June news conference, he outlined five task forces that will address individual topics, including communication. The minutes simply stated the creation of the groups, noting that only “some participants commented that they welcomed the opportunity to review the Committee’s communications tools and practices.”
 
Since then, Warsh had made only one public appearance. At a European Central Bank forum in Portugal, the central bank leader was largely circumspect about where he thinks policy should go, consistent with his distaste for so-called forward guidance on monetary policy intentions.

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Binance has pushed back against a reported US Justice Department warning, telling BeInCrypto that any claims of reduced cooperation with US law enforcement are wrong.

In an interview, Binance’s Head of Corporate Communications said the exchange believes the DOJ memo was likely based on a misreading of its obligations under Abu Dhabi Global Market rules. The company said it has already told both the DOJ and ADGM that its process for handling US law enforcement requests will remain unchanged.

“We are not going to change in any way, shape or form, the way that we interact with law enforcement in America,” the spokesperson told BeInCrypto.

DOJ Memo Sparks a New Controversy for Binance

On Wednesday, BeInCrypto reported that an internal DOJ memo had warned prosecutors to expect less help from Binance in crypto investigations. The memo, first described by The Information, reportedly said Binance would end courtesy freezes.

Investigators would instead need Mutual Legal Assistance Treaties (MLATs) to freeze or seize accounts.

Binance says it has not seen the memo but does not dispute its existence. However, it firmly rejects the reported claims.

According to the exchange’s Head of Corporate Comms, there could be a potential misunderstanding regarding Binance’s obligations under its Abu Dhabi license.

“…because of our global license under the ADGM, we are technically, by ADGM rules, supposed to implement those measures. But they are just guidelines. We are not doing that in America.”

He believes the ADGM wants requests routed through it for standardization, which slows agencies elsewhere.

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What the ADGM Rulebook Actually Says

BeInCrypto examined the rules at the center of the dispute. Binance.com became the first global crypto exchange licensed under the ADGM framework, with supervision starting on January 5, 2026. The changes the memo anticipated reportedly began on June 8, five months into that license.

Crucially, ADGM’s data protection regulations prohibit the transfer of personal data out of the free zone. Official guidance allows disclosures to UAE law enforcement, but states this “would not extend to cover requests from law enforcement agencies outside of the UAE.”

Read strictly, that could push foreign agencies onto treaty channels like MLATs, mirroring what the memo reportedly anticipated.

However, the same guidance permits transfers tied to legal claims and cites a US authority’s request as a legitimate example.

The rulebook, therefore, leaves Binance with lawful grounds to continue cooperating with US authorities.

Why the DOJ Memo Matters After the Plea Deal

There is a second layer to the story. Binance pleaded guilty in November 2023 to anti-money laundering and sanctions failures, paying $4.3 billion.

Cooperation was already a sore point then. The DOJ granted Binance only partial credit for its cooperation because the exchange delayed producing evidence.

The deal also required an independent compliance monitor for three years. That oversight has since thinned. The DOJ paused corporate monitorships in 2025, and founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ), who personally pleaded guilty, received a presidential pardon.

In April, Senator Richard Blumenthal pressed the DOJ and Treasury on the status of the monitors. His letters followed reports that over $1 billion moved through Binance to Iran-linked wallets.

With fewer formal levers, prosecutors depend more on voluntary collaboration from exchanges, like courtesy freezes. That dependence explains why an internal warning about Binance pulling back carries real weight.

Exchange Says US Engagement Is Growing, Not Shrinking

Binance confirmed it is in direct contact with the DOJ and says it flagged the memo immediately.

“We’ve told the DOJ, we’re not changing anything… like nothing is changing. Rather we are increasing our engagement with law enforcement and with the DOJ in America in order to stop illicit activity on the blockchain.”

The episode caps a tense year in Washington. The Treasury reportedly issued stricter compliance demands after reports tied Iranian funds to the platform, and Binance filed a defamation lawsuit against The Wall Street Journal in March.

The DOJ has not commented publicly. Whether it revises the guidance may be the clearest signal of where the relationship stands.

Editor’s Note: BeInCrypto has reached out to the US Department of Justice (DOJ) for an official response regarding the internal memo and Binance’s statements. This article will be updated as soon as a comment or formal statement is received.

The post Binance Blames DOJ Warning on Misread of Abu Dhabi Rules appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Tokenized stock transfers more than doubled over the past month to $8.41 billion, according to RWA.xyz data, as activity in onchain equity markets continued to accelerate.

The sector’s distributed value also climbed 43% over the same period to $2.16 billion, while the number of holders increased 17% to more than 409,000, according to the data platform.

Growth was led by several of the market’s largest tokenization platforms. Figure’s distributed value surged 935% over the past 30 days, while Securitize’s rose 332% and xStocks’ increased around 62%.

Ondo remained the largest tokenized stock platform by distributed value at roughly $846 million, followed by xStocks with about $708 million, Securitize with $306 million and Figure with $239 million, according to the data.

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Tokenized stocks. Source: RWA.xyz

Tokenized equities outperformed other segments of the RWA market. Distributed value for tokenized US Treasurys, the sector’s largest asset class, was essentially flat over the past month, while the broader tokenized RWA market grew about 4% to $33.5 billion.

Related: Tradeweb executes real-time tokenized US Treasury transaction on Canton Network

Crypto and Wall Street race to tokenize stocks

The tokenized stock market has grown from roughly $378 million to $2.16 billion over the past year, a gain of about 471%, according to RWA.xyz data.

The growth has coincided with a wave of new tokenized equity offerings across crypto exchanges. During the SpaceX IPO, Kraken, Bybit and Bitget Wallet used xStocks infrastructure to offer tokenized pre-IPO access. Although customer demand exceeded the available share allocation, it highlighted growing investor appetite for blockchain-based securities.

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The momentum has spread to public markets. Earlier this month, Securitize became the first newly public company to issue tokenized versions of its shares on the Solana and Avalanche blockchains as it debuted on the New York Stock Exchange.

Some of the biggest names in traditional finance have also been accelerating their own tokenization efforts. In May, the DTCC announced plans to launch a tokenized securities service in October after receiving regulatory approval to offer tokenization services on pre-approved blockchains under a three-year pilot.

Source: The_DTCC

Earlier this year, the New York Stock Exchange and parent company Intercontinental Exchange unveiled plans for a platform to trade tokenized stocks and ETFs, while Nasdaq partnered with Kraken and infrastructure firm Backed to develop technology linking traditional equities with blockchain networks.

As competition between crypto-native and traditional finance firms intensifies, ICE CEO Jeffrey Sprecher has urged regulators to allow traditional exchanges to offer 24/7 onchain perpetual futures, arguing regulated venues should be able to compete with crypto-native platforms.

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Magazine: Bitcoin decouples from tech stocks, Ether eyes ‘selling wave’: Market Moves

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Crypto exchange AscendEx has announced the cessation of its operations “with effect from 1 July 2026.” In a letter dated July 6, it cited a lack of an EU Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) licence, “as well as broader regulatory, financial and operational considerations affecting the platform.”

However, towards the end of the letter, AscendEx reveals that it “relied on an agreed strategic transaction… and the counterparty did not perform.”

The news comes almost two weeks after pseudonymous blockchain investigator ZachXBT voiced concerns over disruption to user withdrawals.

In a June 26 message to his Telegram channel, he noted that the exchange’s “reserves appear to lack large cap tokens such as ETH, USDT, USDT, SOL, etc indicating they likely are facing liquidity issues.”

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Read more: SecondFi is shutting down after Cardano wallet exploit

AscendEx-labelled addresses on blockchain data platform Arkham Intelligence hold approximately $13.5 million worth of crypto. However, the vast majority of this (over $12 million) is made up of Unbound Science’s UNITE token and the exchange’s own ASD.

Ascendex’s balance history shows a sudden drop in reserves almost a week before ZachXBT first drew attention to withdrawal issues.

The $240 million drop-off came less than two months after a liquidity injection of a similar scale, before which Ascendex reserves sat steadily around $50 million.

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Read more: ZachXBT slams Bitget execs over suspicious $480M withdrawals

Since June 20, the value of reserves has been much more volatile, until July 1 when the exchange ceased operations.

Following up on his original message, on July 2 ZachXBT warned that withdrawals were “still not being processed while deposits are being accepted,” and urged affected users to contact their local authorities.

He then reiterated the earlier recommendation to contact law enforcement and “hold [AscendEx’s] co-founder… responsible” on July 8.

Will AscendEx honour withdrawals?

Addressing the worries over stuck funds, AscendEx’s announcement states that “automated withdrawals are paused.”

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From July 6 onward, all withdrawals will face “manual review” based on “account verification, KYC/AML/CFT and sanctions checks, fraud-prevention checks, asset and balance reconciliation, network availability and any applicable legal or insolvency-related requirements.”

Unsurprisingly, given the lengthy list of checks, it warns that withdrawals may face delays, requests for additional information, or may not be processed at all.

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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The Federal Reserve has warned that strong artificial intelligence-related demand could keep inflation elevated, while market pricing for a U.S. interest rate hike this year has climbed above 59%.

Summary

• Fed minutes identified AI demand, tariffs, and Middle East tensions as potential drivers of persistent inflation.
• Most Fed officials said higher rates may be needed if inflation stays above the 2% target.
• Polymarket now prices a 59% chance of a Fed rate hike this year, while July pause odds remain at 69.5%.

According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, policymakers discussed several paths for monetary policy depending on how inflation and the labor market develop.

One of the scenarios considered involved inflation staying above the central bank’s 2% target despite a stable labor market, driven by strong AI-related demand, the conflict in the Middle East, or the effects of tariffs.

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Under those conditions, the minutes showed that almost all participants believed additional policy tightening would likely be needed to bring inflation back to the Fed’s target. At the same time, the document outlined an alternative scenario in which inflationary pressures ease, allowing inflation to move back toward 2%.

Elevated inflation keeps tightening on the table

In the event inflation begins to cool, almost all participants said maintaining the current federal funds rate or eventually lowering it would likely be appropriate, according to the meeting minutes.

The June meeting ultimately ended with the Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged, the first policy meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh since taking over as Fed chair.

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The minutes also revealed differences among policymakers over where interest rates should finish the year. Many participants projected that the appropriate federal funds rate would be within or slightly below the current target range by year-end. Others, however, judged that rates should end the year above the current range, highlighting continued uncertainty over the inflation outlook.

Separately, a few participants argued there was already a case for raising rates because upside inflation risks remained elevated while downside risks to the labor market had eased somewhat. Even so, those officials still supported leaving the policy rate unchanged at the June meeting.

Markets continue pricing another rate increase

While policymakers debated multiple scenarios, prediction markets have increasingly leaned toward another rate hike before the end of the year. According to Polymarket data, traders currently assign a 59% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in 2026.

Those odds have increased this week following renewed tensions between the United States and Iran after President Donald Trump threatened additional military strikes against Iran, adding another potential source of inflation risk alongside energy market uncertainty.

Meanwhile, expectations for the Fed’s next meeting remain more balanced. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 69.5% probability that policymakers will leave interest rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. Although that remains the most likely outcome, the probability has declined from around 80% over the past week.

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Current CME FedWatch pricing also shows a 30.5% chance of a rate increase in July, indicating that investors have become less certain that the Fed will be able to keep borrowing costs unchanged if inflation risks continue to build.

Taken together, the June meeting minutes indicate that Federal Reserve officials continue to view incoming inflation data as the deciding factor for future policy. While many members still see room to hold or eventually lower rates if price pressures ease, persistent inflation driven by AI demand, geopolitical developments, or tariffs could still push the central bank toward another rate hike later this year. 

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Charles Hoskinson has accused Ethereum of adopting ideas pioneered by Cardano without acknowledgment.

The Cardano co-founder made the claim following a proposal by Ethereum researcher Toni Wahrstätter to bring native UTXOs to the network as a way of cutting long-term state storage for payment transactions.

Ethereum Is Revisiting Cardano’s Work

According to Hoskinson, Wahrstätter’s research closely mirrors concepts Cardano has been developing since its launch.

“It’s literally a crime in the Ethereum inner circle to mention Cardano,” he wrote on X. “EUTXO is the biggest innovation of the smart contract world and Ethereum cannot mention it as they literally try to copy it.”

Wahrstätter’s proposal describes a payment model that stores only a small “spent” marker in Ethereum’s state while keeping the rest of the payment data in blockchain history. According to the research, this approach could reduce the permanent state required for payment workloads by as much as 99.8% without abandoning Ethereum’s account-based architecture.

The proposal borrows the one-time payment structure used by Bitcoin’s UTXO model while allowing Ethereum accounts and smart contracts to keep on operating. It also relies on the proposed EIP-8141 transaction framework to let users spend UTXOs without first holding ETH for gas fees.

Hoskinson followed up his post on X with a livestream on the same platform, where he read a tweet by Wahrstätter announcing the proposal and pointed out that it made no reference to Cardano despite his network spending years solving many of the engineering problems that Ethereum is now exploring.

“For ten years, we’ve worked on extended UTXO, smart contracts on UTXO,” he said. “We wrote a paper called Chimeric Ledgers to show how to run these two systems in parallel.”

He argued that Ethereum developers had in the past dismissed UTXO-based smart contracts as impractical before now putting similar ideas on their long-term roadmap.

Long-Running Rivalry Returns to the Spotlight

During the livestream, Hoskinson expanded his criticism beyond Wahrstätter’s proposal, claiming that Ethereum has been regularly adopting ideas after dismissing them when they first appeared on Cardano.

Some of the areas he claimed such behavior had happened in included Cardano’s governance system and treasury model, which he said the Ethereum Foundation had been forced to drift toward after losing staff and money.

He also suggested that Ethereum would look to revisit Cardano’s work on privacy and post-quantum cryptography through IOHK’s privacy-focused blockchain project, Midnight, as well as its early embrace of formal verification tools like Lean. According to him, Ethereum will eventually adopt both without acknowledgment as well.

This is not the first time Hoskinson has used a livestream to vent about how he or Cardano is being treated. In June, he announced plans to move the Cardano community away from X and onto Discord, saying the social platform had become dominated by hostility and personal attacks. However, he said that he would keep using X for livestream broadcasts, the exact same format he used today to make his case against Ethereum.

The post Charles Hoskinson Says Ethereum Is Adopting Cardano Ideas Without Credit appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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In the latest Bitcoin news, Bitcoin saw BTC price drop to $62,870 on Wednesday after stalling at the $64,000 resistance zone, with fresh US military strikes against Iran delivering the decisive blow to an already fragile risk appetite.

The convergence of geopolitical shock, a $7.7 billion stablecoin contraction, and anemic Bitcoin ETF inflows has placed the crypto market on a structurally weak footing heading into the back half of the week.

Bitcoin (BTC)

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Discover: The Best Token Presales

Bitcoin News: US-Iran Escalation Is the Immediate Catalyst

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps responded by claiming strikes on 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait and announcing the downing of a US MQ9 drone. Washington simultaneously withdrew a key concession that had allowed Iran to sell oil on international markets, a move that immediately spiked crude prices and reinforced the flight from risk-sensitive assets.

Bitcoin, as one of the most liquid 24/7 risk instruments, absorbed that flight in real time.

The causal chain from US-Iran tensions to BTC price is not theoretical. Geopolitical risk of this magnitude raises energy-cost expectations, tightens financial conditions sentiment, and pushes institutional allocators toward capital preservation.

Bitcoin, which had already printed a 21-month low of $57,742 on July 1 amid rate-hike fears, according to Bloomberg, had a limited cushion to absorb another macro shock of this scale. For more context on where analysts see the BTC price trajectory from here, see Peter Brandt’s bearish Bitcoin price outlook.

Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio

Stablecoin Contraction Signals Capital Exit, Not Rotation

The geopolitical catalyst landed on top of a liquidity picture that was already deteriorating. According to data cited by Walter Bloomberg on X, the stablecoin market contracted by 2.4% – $7.7 billion, to $312 billion in June, its largest monthly decline since the TerraUSD collapse of 2022.

That comparison is worth sitting with: the last time stablecoin supply fell this sharply in a single month, the crypto market was unwinding a systemic failure.

This time the cause is different – reduced buying interest rather than a protocol implosion, but the directional implication for the crypto market is the same. Stablecoin contraction means less dry powder available to buy dips.

It signals that fresh capital is leaving the ecosystem rather than rotating within it. The June decline coincided with a 20% drop in the BTC price, and if the stablecoin contraction extends into July, selling pressure has a structural source beyond just the current Iran headline.

BTC ETF Inflows Exist But Are Too Thin to Matter

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows offered a technical positive – SoSoValue data shows Tuesday marked the third consecutive day of net inflows at $21.44 million, but the number is functionally irrelevant at current pressure levels.

For context, the weeks preceding this brief inflow streak saw hundreds of millions in cumulative ETF outflows, and $21 million does not meaningfully offset that overhang.

Institutional demand through the ETF channel was supposed to provide a floor under extended selloffs. The absence of that cushion here, three days of token inflows against a backdrop of geopolitical shock and liquidity withdrawal, underscores that institutional appetite remains cautious, not committed.

If inflows reverse back to outflows this week, the ETF narrative loses whatever stabilizing credibility it still carries.

Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis: Every Major EMA Is Overhead Resistance

The chart structure reinforces the bearish case. Bitcoin trades below all three major exponential moving averages: the 50-day EMA at $65,577, the 100-day at $69,225, and the 200-day at $75,269.

That stacked alignment means every meaningful rally attempt runs into a fresh supply zone before it can generate momentum. The RSI sits near a neutral 48, and while the MACD remains positive, it is waning – not a reversal signal, but confirmation that the corrective pressure has not cleared.

Immediate resistance is the horizontal barrier at $64,004, which BTC failed to clear on Wednesday. On the downside, the absence of defined structural support between current levels and the July 1 yearly low of $57,800 is the critical detail.

A close below $62,000 removes the last thin buffer and opens a direct path toward that level. Retail sentiment around these price levels has been visibly deteriorating, a dynamic well-documented in the retail investor response to Bitcoin’s slide from its highs.

Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit

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