Gold has surged to new record highs, Bitcoin (BTC) has swung sharply, and oil keeps reacting to headlines since U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term in January 2025.

Over the past year, gold has jumped roughly 80%, while Bitcoin is down over 25% despite trading as high as $124,000 last October. Oil, on the other hand, has hovered near recent highs but continues to move on geopolitical developments.

Together, the moves show how less predictable markets have become. Instead of following cycles, assets are increasingly reacting to politics, inflation worries, and shifting expectations for growth, forcing investors to rethink what counts as a safe haven, a risky trade, or a macro signal.

Gold: The Classic Hedge

Gold has been one of the clearest winners of the past year, rising about 80%. The metal traded near $2,941 per ounce a year ago and now sits around $5,300, as investors increasingly turned to it for protection against inflation, geopolitical tensions, and general uncertainty.

During the year, gold fell as low as $2,857 and hit an all-time high above $5,500. Jonathan Rose, CEO of BlockTrust IRA, said the rally shows how investors tend to return to fundamentals when uncertainty rises.

“If there’s one thing the current administration’s ‘America First ‘ agenda has proven, it’s that the market eventually stops trading on ‘vibes’ and starts trading on plumbing,” Rose said. He added that gold’s resilience stems from its role as an asset not dependent on leverage or liquidity cycles.

“It’s held by central banks and ‘old money’ that doesn’t panic-sell to meet a 4:00 PM margin call,” Rose said. “While the digital world was reeling from the largest leveraged liquidation event on record ($20 billion wiped out in a single cascade), gold acted as the asset of last resort.”

Meanwhile, Sid Powell, CEO of Maple, said the metal’s performance reflects a familiar pattern during uncertain periods.

“In uncertain political and macro environments, gold has done what it always does – steadily attracting demand as investors look for protection against inflation risk, policy shifts, and instability,” Powell explained.

And this interest in gold has also shown up on-chain, with tokenized gold assets surpassing $4 billion in market value earlier this year as investors sought exposure to the metal through digital rails.

Bitcoin: The Volatile One

If gold has delivered steady gains, Bitcoin has delivered volatility. In the year since Trump took office again, Bitcoin has fallen around 25%. It traded near $95,740 a year ago and now sits around $69,000 – a far choppier performance than gold.

And the path has been anything but linear. Over the past year, BTC rallied to an all-time high on Inauguration Day, reaching $108,500, dropped to a low of $74,000 in April 2025, and then rallied to a new high of $124,773 in October. This solidified its status as a highly volatile asset after being touted as a “safe” hedge against inflation for the first half of 2025.

For much of the year, BTC and gold traded closely together, both benefiting from inflation concerns and political uncertainty. But that correlation weakened in recent months. While gold continued climbing to record highs, Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its peak.

The divergence only accelerated after the Oct. 10 crash, when roughly $20 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated – the largest derivatives wipeout in crypto history. The event not only drained liquidity but also marked a turning point for crypto market structure.

Marissa Kim, Head of Asset Management at Abra, said the shift reflects broader macro dynamics rather than crypto-specific factors. “Since Trump took office, asset performance has been shaped less by traditional fundamentals and more by a breakdown in old monetary and market cycles.”

She said Bitcoin initially moved in tandem with gold and other assets as investors piled into what she described as the broader “debasement trade,” driven by inflation fears and uncertainty about the future monetary order.

“While many ‘debasement trade’ assets have performed extremely well… BTC and crypto performance has lagged,” Kim said.

Oil

Unlike gold’s steady rise or Bitcoin’s volatility, oil has mostly been moving on geopolitical news, experts said, making it a bit more predictable.

Prices have stayed near recent highs, with U.S. crude trading in the low-to-mid $60s per barrel and Brent crude hovering around the upper-$60s to around $70, as markets weighed the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal and the risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

“Oil’s a different story, as it’s been a mix of geopolitics, supply constraints, and growth expectations,” Arrash Yasavolian, founder and CEO of Vanta, told The Defiant. “However, it got swept into the same reflation tape at different points.”

He said the recent swings show how investors are once again treating assets based on their specific roles rather than broad macro narratives. “And now with unrest in Venezuela and Iran, oil feels much more volatile and less safe than gold,” Yasavolian added.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s recent proposal to raise tariffs to 15% after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled his emergency tariffs illegal has added new concerns about global growth.

USD: The Silent Influencer

While gold, Bitcoin, and oil have drawn most of the attention, the U.S. dollar has quietly shaped the environment behind their moves.

The U.S. Dollar Index is down around 8% over the past year, falling from above 106 last February to around 97.7, and earlier this year touched its lowest level in about four years. A weaker dollar tends to support commodities like gold and oil and can also make alternative assets like Bitcoin look more attractive.

Analysts have tied the decline to a mix of tariff threats, fiscal concerns, and expectations that interest rates could move lower, factors that have also coincided with investors rotating into hard assets.

In that sense, the dollar hasn’t been the headline story, but it has influenced how other markets behave.

When looking at the entire picture, the moves across gold, Bitcoin, oil, and the dollar suggest markets are becoming more fragmented. It also highlights how each asset is increasingly reacting to its own drivers rather than a single macro narrative.

The U.S. Department of Justice has filed a civil forfeiture action to recover more than 327,829 USDT (CRYPTO: USDT), Tether’s widely used stablecoin, in connection with a money-laundering scheme tied to an online romance scam that targeted a Massachusetts resident beginning in 2024. Prosecutors say portions of the funds were traced to unhosted wallets and were seized in August 2025, with the complaint arguing that all cryptocurrency tied to those wallets constitutes property involved in money laundering. The case underscores ongoing regulatory attention on illicit activity tied to crypto payments and stablecoins. It follows a February disclosure that Tether had frozen about $4.2 billion worth of USDT since 2023 due to suspected criminal activity, a figure reported by Reuters and referenced in coverage linked to the broader crackdown on illicit flows within the sector. The action reflects intensified scrutiny of how stablecoins can be used in fraud and money-laundering schemes, as authorities pursue on-chain traces and wallet seizures alongside traditional law-enforcement methods.

Key takeaways

• The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts filed a civil forfeiture action to recover over 327,829 USDT tied to an online romance scam, with authorities noting funds traced to unhosted wallets seized in August 2025.
• A separate February report cited that Tether had frozen roughly US$4.2 billion of USDT since 2023 due to suspected illicit activity, highlighting the government’s ability to blacklist addresses and restrict transfers.
• Past actions show Tether’s capacity to freeze funds—such as a February case involving about $544 million linked to Turkish illicit betting and money laundering at the request of Turkish authorities—illustrating that stablecoin controls can intersect with law enforcement requests.
• The romance-scam case is part of broader enforcement patterns around crypto-enabled fraud, as U.S. authorities continually map on-chain activity to real-world schemes—an area that remains a focal point for regulatory clarity and compliance standards.
• The developments come ahead of Valentine’s Day cross-border awareness campaigns about online scams and guideposts from prosecutors warning the public against sending money or crypto to people met online.

Tickers mentioned: $USDT

Market context: The action sits at the intersection of enforcement and stablecoin use, where regulators are increasingly focused on tracing funds and the on-chain footprints of criminals. As stablecoins anchor more crypto payments, authorities are tightening oversight and emphasizing the need for transparent governance, auditable reserves, and robust compliance programs to curb misuse.

Why it matters

The Massachusetts forfeiture filing shines a light on the practical steps law enforcement takes to recover digital assets linked to crime. By tying the seizure to a romance scam—an increasingly common vector for crypto-related fraud—prosecutors illustrate how traditional schemes can migrate to blockchain rails. The case also underscores the dual-edged nature of stablecoins: while USDT provides liquidity and smoother fiat-crypto exchanges, it also creates an additional channel for illicit activity unless effective controls are in place. The ability to freeze specific wallets reflects a level of centralized control that, for some observers, raises questions about the boundary between policing crimes and the freedom of decentralized finance.

For users and investors, the episode serves as a reminder to exercise caution in online interactions and to remain vigilant about requests for cryptocurrency transfers, even when the sender appears credible or emotionally persuasive. It also contextualizes ongoing policy debates around stablecoin regulation, reserve transparency, and how authorities should balance innovation with consumer protection and financial crime prevention. The public record—the civil-forfeiture notice and related government statements—retains value as a verifyable basis for understanding how on-chain activity maps to real-world illicit networks, a critical element as the ecosystem scales and evolves.

From a market perspective, these enforcement actions can influence sentiment around stablecoins and crypto liquidity. While one case does not erase the overall growth of legitimate use cases for USDT, it reinforces the perception that regulators are actively pursuing avenues to disrupt or unwind illicit flows, potentially shaping future compliance expectations for issuers and exchanges alike.

For researchers and practitioners, the affair underscores the importance of on-chain analytics and the availability of publicly auditable data to corroborate law-enforcement claims. It also spotlights the role of unhosted wallets and the challenges of tracing activity across varying wallet types, including noncustodial solutions that complicate asset-recovery processes. In parallel, the broader narrative around Valentine’s Day-related scams—highlighted by public warnings from U.S. prosecutors—serves as a reminder that fraud can take multiple forms, with crypto merely one instrument among many in a criminal playbook.

Watchers should note that the case is not isolated. It follows previously reported actions where Tether disclosed freezing a substantial amount of USDT in response to illicit activity, and it aligns with a wider trend of authorities pursuing criminal funds that flow through digital assets. The landscape continues to evolve as regulators seek greater interoperability between traditional anti-money-laundering frameworks and the evolving mechanics of blockchain finance. For readers tracking regulatory risk, the developing civil-forfeiture action offers a concrete example of how enforcement agencies intersect with stablecoins, wallets, and on-chain tracing to disrupt criminal networks.

To contextualize the discussion for a broader audience, a related video discussion is available here: Watch on YouTube.

What to watch next

• Upcoming court filings in the civil forfeiture case, including any claims by Tether or other parties and the timeline for resolution.
• Details on which unhosted wallets were seized and whether the assets will be returned, forfeited, or subject to further legal action.
• Any subsequent government statements clarifying the scope of the recovery and the role of USDT in the underlying scheme.
• Broader regulatory developments around stablecoins and on-chain asset tracing, including potential guidance or new rules affecting issuers and exchanges.

Sources & verification

• United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Massachusetts. United States Attorneys Office files civil forfeiture action to recover cryptocurrency. https://www.justice.gov/usao-ma/pr/united-states-attorneys-office-files-civil-forfeiture-action-recover-cryptocurrency
• Cointelegraph. Tether freezes $4.2B USDT illicit-activity report. https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-freezes-4-2b-usdt-illicit-activity-report
• Cointelegraph. Tether freezes $544M crypto Turkey illegal betting. https://cointelegraph.com/news/tether-freezes-544m-crypto-turkey-illegal-betting
• Cointelegraph. Gen Z crypto Valentine’s date payments OKX survey. https://cointelegraph.com/news/gen-z-crypto-valentines-date-payments-okx-survey

Case details and implications for stablecoin enforcement

The core of the action is a civil forfeiture filing that targets a specific tranche of digital assets—327,829 USDT—linked to a scheme described by prosecutors as money laundering via an online romance scam. The defendant in the public filing is described by authorities as an individual operating a deception that began in 2024, culminating in the seizure of funds tied to on-chain wallets that could not be accessed through standard custodial services. The authorities emphasize that the cryptocurrency associated with those wallets is property involved in money laundering, an assertion that aligns with the broader legal framework that permits asset forfeiture in cases where crypto assets are proven to have been used to facilitate crime.

The broader narrative includes a February report indicating that Tether had frozen roughly $4.2 billion of USDT since 2023 in connection with suspected illicit activity. This points to the ongoing capability of stablecoin issuers and law enforcement agencies to respond to suspicious activity by blacklisting addresses and effectively controlling the flow of funds within the ecosystem. The fact that a separate action involving nearly half a billion dollars in USDT linked to Turkish authorities’ requests illustrates the practical, real-world reach of these controls—even within a largely decentralized, permissionless network. Critics may view such actions as necessary enforcement tools, while supporters may argue they reflect appropriate risk management by on-chain participants and stablecoin issuers alike.

As enforcement patterns evolve, market participants will be watching for how such cases influence liquidity, regulatory expectations, and the willingness of exchanges to list or delist certain assets in response to tethered enforcement actions. The romance-scam case also underscores the importance of consumer education and awareness campaigns, especially around Valentine’s Day, when online dating scams tend to spike. Authorities have repeatedly warned the public against sending funds or crypto to individuals met online, highlighting that the speed and anonymity of digital assets can complicate traditional fraud prevention measures.

Bitfinex Securities said on Monday it will resume issuing tokenized bonds for Luxembourg-based securitization fund ALTERNATIVE, with future sales expected to exceed $10 million.

The USDt-denominated bonds will be issued and settled on the Liquid Network, a Bitcoin sidechain, with fundraising, coupon payments and principal repayments executed fully onchain.

The move follows four prior tokenized bond issuances since 2023 totaling $6.2 million, three of which have matured and been fully repaid, representing about $1 million in principal returned to investors.

Across those offerings, investors received 20 onchain coupon payments worth more than $1.1 million by the completion of their first full tokenized bond cycle in 2025, according to the companies. The bonds give investors exposure to emerging-market private credit, including financing for small and medium-sized businesses and women-led enterprises.

Bitfinex Securities operates under licenses in the Astana International Financial Centre in Kazakhstan and in El Salvador, and handles issuance, listing and secondary trading, while Tether’s Hadron platform supports token management. The platform says it now lists about $250 million in regulated tokenized securities.

Jesse Knutson, head of operations at Bitfinex, told Cointelegraph that buyers have primarily been high-net-worth crypto investors and crypto-focused institutions from Europe and Asia seeking yield on their USDt (USDT) holdings.

The tokenized bonds operate alongside the issuer’s conventional monthly bond program and typically carry an 11-month duration. Transactions are recorded on the Liquid Network, though key settlement details are shielded by its confidential transaction features.

He added, “There’s been a lot of discussion this year around yield-generating stablecoins. This product offers a solution with an easy, regulated and established vehicle for earning yield on USDt balances.”

Related: Bitcoin exposes the structural weaknesses that banks refuse to admit

Yield vs. no yield debate rages on

The relaunch comes as debate continues over whether stablecoins should be allowed to offer yield and how such products should be regulated in the United States.

With the passage of the US GENIUS Act in July 2025, stablecoin issuers were barred from paying yield, but the law did not explicitly prohibit third parties from offering returns through separate products. The “loophole” allowed exchanges or other third-party platforms to structure securities or lending instruments that generate yield in stablecoins without the issuer itself distributing interest.

Banks have warned that high-yielding stablecoin products could pull deposits away from the traditional financial system. In January, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said interest-bearing stablecoins could drain as much as $6 trillion in deposits from US banks, arguing that large-scale migration into digital dollar products could reduce lending capacity and increase funding costs.

The debate has become one of the most contentious issues surrounding the CLARITY Act, proposed US legislation aimed at establishing a broader regulatory framework for digital assets. On Jan. 14, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong withdrew his support for the bill, citing stablecoin yield as one of the key sticking points.

Still, some lawmakers remain optimistic. On Feb. 18, US Senator Bernie Moreno said he hopes Congress can move forward on market structure legislation by April, speaking to CNBC at US President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property in Florida. Armstrong, who joined Moreno in the interview, also said he believes there is a path forward “where we can get a win-win-win outcome here.”

Prediction market data from Polymarket currently assigns a 70% probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026.

Magazine: Clarity Act risks repeat of Europe’s mistakes, crypto lawyer warns