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Solana (SOL) Flashes First Bullish Signal in Two Months While Grayscale Eyes Opportunity

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • The SuperTrend indicator for Solana turned bullish on March 13, marking the first positive signal since early January.
  • The asset has declined approximately 67% from its September 2025 all-time high, currently trading around $88–89.
  • Broader weekly technical metrics remain negative, with 15 out of 17 indicators showing sell signals.
  • Grayscale’s research division highlighted SOL as an attractive opportunity at current valuation levels.
  • Total cumulative inflows into Solana Spot ETFs have reached $961–$968 million, though weekly momentum has decelerated significantly.

Solana (SOL) has generated its first positive technical indicator reading in approximately two months, despite the overall chart structure continuing to show bearish characteristics. This development has captured the interest of both market analysts and institutional observers.

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Solana (SOL) Price

Following a peak above $240 in late 2025, SOL commenced a prolonged downward trajectory. The cryptocurrency breached successive support zones before establishing a base in the $67–$80 zone during early 2026.

Throughout the last four weeks, Solana has consolidated within a $76 to $90 range. The token briefly exceeded $90 on two occasions in March, with the most recent push aligning with the SuperTrend buy signal appearing on the daily timeframe.

Understanding the SuperTrend Signal

The SuperTrend is a momentum-based technical indicator that determines trend direction by analyzing price action and volatility metrics. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified the bullish crossover on March 13 through X.

This marks the first time the indicator has shown a bullish configuration since the beginning of January. A bearish signal emerged in early February, coinciding with SOL’s descent to $67.

While the signal suggests potential near-term upward momentum, it doesn’t necessarily confirm a long-term trend reversal. The indicator is susceptible to false readings, and the overall technical landscape presents a more complex scenario.

Weekly chart analysis on TradingView reveals 15 indicators generating sell signals versus only 2 buy signals. All significant moving averages remain positioned above current price levels. The EMA10 stands at $98.47, the SMA200 at $103.70, and the EMA200 at $119.62 — each indicating downward pressure.

The Relative Strength Index reads 32.34, nearing but not yet entering oversold conditions. The MACD displays a negative reading of -23.70.

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Technical experts suggest SOL would need to recover above the SMA200 level of $103.70 at minimum to signal a meaningful structural change.

Institutional Perspective from Grayscale

On March 13, Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl released a comprehensive six-point analysis supporting investment in SOL, highlighting the approximately 67% decline from September 2025 peaks as an attractive accumulation zone.

Pandl emphasized Solana’s dominant position in user activity, transaction volume, and fee generation among smart contract platforms throughout the previous year. He also noted evolving regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and asset tokenization as favorable catalysts.

Daily inflows into Solana Spot ETFs reached $7.60 million on March 13, entirely attributable to Bitwise’s BSOL product. Aggregate net inflows across all listed Solana ETF products currently range between $961 and $968 million, with combined net assets totaling approximately $824–$855 million.

However, weekly ETF inflow momentum has experienced a substantial decline. Total weekly inflows registered just $3.10 million — representing an 83% decrease compared to the previous week.

SOL currently changes hands at approximately $88.95, showing a 2.8% increase over the last 24 hours and an 11.15% gain across the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency maintains a total market capitalization of roughly $54.74 billion, securing the seventh position among all digital assets.

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Ripple Joins SWIFT’s Certified Partner Program, Gaining Access to a $150 Trillion Network

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Ripple Treasury is officially listed in SWIFT’s Certified Partner Program and confirmed on both directories.
  • Banks using Ripple Treasury can now access SWIFT’s Alliance Lite2 messaging network directly. 
  • Ripple’s platform supports SWIFT, EBICS, SFTP, APIs, combining legacy and blockchain rails in one.
  • Rather than replacing SWIFT, Ripple positions itself as the bridge between old and new finance.

Ripple has officially joined SWIFT’s Certified Partner Program, marking a notable shift in how the blockchain payments company positions itself within the global financial system.

Rather than replacing SWIFT, Ripple Treasury now operates as a certified partner inside the network. This move gives banks access to both legacy and blockchain payment rails through a single platform.

The development has drawn renewed attention to Ripple’s long-term strategy in the institutional payments space.

Ripple Treasury Gains Direct Access to SWIFT’s Messaging Network

Banks using Ripple Treasury can now connect to SWIFT’s Alliance Lite2 messaging network directly. They no longer need separate SWIFT infrastructure to access the network. This is confirmed on both Ripple’s partner page and SWIFT’s official partner directory.

Through this integration, users also get access to SWIFTRef data inside the platform. This covers IBAN lookups and ABA routing lookups built into payment workflows. These tools are standard requirements for institutions processing cross-border transactions daily.

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Ripple Treasury supports multiple connectivity options alongside SWIFT. These include EBICS, SFTP, APIs, and alternative networks. Together, they give financial institutions a flexible, consolidated payments infrastructure under one platform.

One Platform Now Bridges Legacy Banking and Blockchain Rails

The integration positions Ripple as a bridge between traditional finance and blockchain-based payments. Banks no longer face a binary choice between old and new systems. Both options are now available through a single interface.

SWIFT processes approximately $150 trillion in transactions annually. Ripple now sits within that network while also developing its own blockchain payment alternative. This dual positioning is a calculated move in a competitive institutional market.

For banks, the practical outcome is reduced operational complexity. Connecting to two separate systems traditionally required significant infrastructure investment. With Ripple Treasury’s SWIFT certification, that barrier is considerably lower.

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The development represents a maturation in how blockchain companies approach institutional adoption. Instead of positioning purely as a disruptor, Ripple has taken a complementary route.

That strategy may prove more effective in driving real-world adoption among regulated financial institutions.

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Massive Chainlink Token Unlock Sparks Sell-Off Fears

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Chainlink has released 17.875 million LINK tokens valued at approximately $165 million in its scheduled quarterly unlock, according to on-chain data.

Of the newly unlocked supply, 14.875 million LINK, worth about $125 million, was transferred directly to the Binance cryptocurrency exchange. Market analysts note that such heavy inflows into exchanges typically signal anticipated sell-side activity.

Blockchain analyst EmberCN explained that Chainlink moved the remaining 4.125 million tokens, valued at roughly $40.1 million, to a multi-signature wallet that distributes staking rewards.

While this incentivizes network participants, it creates a circular economic challenge. Chainlink inflates its supply to pay stakers, diluting the underlying value those same stakers are attempting to capture.

This structural inflation is taking a toll on the token’s market performance. Data from BeInCrypto shows a nominal 0.83% gain to $8.67 over the past 24 hours.

However, LINK has declined 7% over the past month and plunged 60% over the previous six months.

Despite the bearish price action, blockchain analytics firm Santiment reports a 25% increase in the number of whale wallets holding 1 million or more LINK over the past year. The total number of these large-tier addresses has grown from 100 to 125.

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Number of Addresses Holding Chainlink's LINK Token Rise.
Number of Addresses Holding Chainlink’s LINK Token Rise. Source: Santiment

Santiment interpreted this accumulation as smart money quietly positioning for a market reversal, saying:

“This may not seem like it has much correlation with price while Bitcoin and all of crypto has remained in a bear cycle… But when markets flip positive once again, look for assets that whales have quietly been flocking to.”

This is unsurprising, considering Chainlink is widely considered an essential infrastructure for the crypto industry.

Over the past year, it has established pilots with global entities like Swift, Mastercard, and J.P. Morgan for tokenized assets and cross-chain functionality.

Ultimately, Chainlink appears to be winning the race to build enterprise blockchain infrastructure, but its retail and institutional investors are losing the battle against structural dilution.

Until the broader market sees a material reduction in quarterly exchange distributions or a direct mechanism linking institutional utilization to public token demand, the asset’s valuation faces a difficult recovery.

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The post Massive Chainlink Token Unlock Sparks Sell-Off Fears appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Nevada judge extends Kalshi ban, rejects event-contract defense

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Crypto Breaking News

A Nevada judge has extended a court-ordered halt on Kalshi’s ability to offer event-based contracts to residents in the state, ruling that the products fall under unlicensed gambling as defined by Nevada law. In a Friday hearing in Carson City, Judge Jason Woodbury granted a preliminary injunction sought by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, barring Kalshi from letting Nevadans place bets on outcomes ranging from sports to elections and entertainment without a gaming license, according to Reuters.

The injunction builds on a temporary restraining order issued on March 20, which will stay in place through April 17 while the court considers longer-term restrictions. Kalshi, which operates from New York, contends that its contracts are financial derivatives—specifically swaps—that should be overseen exclusively by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Key takeaways

  • Nevada extends a ban on Kalshi’s event-based contracts, blocking trading in the state without a gaming license.
  • The judge frames Kalshi’s contracts as functionally indistinguishable from traditional sports betting, effectively classifying them as gambling under state law.
  • Kalshi argues the products are CFTC-regulated swaps, setting up a clash between state gaming authorities and federal market regulators.
  • The CFTC has signaled it will defend its regulatory remit over prediction markets in court against state challenges.
  • Regulatory pressure is broadening, with Utah moving to block Kalshi and similar platforms, underscoring a shifting legal landscape for prediction markets in the U.S.

Nevada’s ruling and Kalshi’s legal position

During the hearing, Judge Woodbury described Kalshi’s contracts as essentially mirroring the mechanics of licensed sports betting. He stated that, no matter how one frames the product, placing a wager on a game outcome via Kalshi is “indistinguishable” from traditional gaming activity and thus requires a Nevada gaming license. Reuters characterized the judge’s comments as a strong alignment with the board’s position that Kalshi’s offerings violate state gaming statutes.

The court’s decision reinforces a broader pattern of state regulators scrutinizing prediction markets, with Nevada’s action marking the first time a state has obtained a court-enforceable ban on Kalshi. Kalshi has argued that its contracts are swaps—financial instruments that should fall under federal oversight by the CFTC rather than state gaming commissions. The dispute illustrates a central tension in U.S. financial-regulatory policy: whether prediction markets should be treated as gambling, derivative trading, or something in between subject to multiple layers of regulation.

Regulatory backdrop: CFTC’s stance and the broader market implications

At the federal level, the CFTC has maintained that it has jurisdiction over prediction markets and has signaled it is prepared to defend that authority in court against state challenges. In a recent industry appearance, CFTC Chair Rostin Behn emphasized the potential value of prediction markets as “truth machines”—markets where financial incentives are aligned to reveal more reliable signals about future events than traditional polling. The department’s posture suggests a willingness to push back against state-level attempts to curb or reinterpret the scope of what constitutes a regulated market in this space.

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The Nevada decision comes against a backdrop of growing state action targeting prediction-market-style bets. In nearby Utah, lawmakers advanced legislation aimed at classifying proposition-style bets on in-game events as gambling, effectively blocking Kalshi and similar platforms in the state. While Utah’s move is separate from Nevada’s court action, it signals a broader regulatory trend that could constrain operators seeking to offer event-based contracts across multiple jurisdictions.

What this means for traders, investors, and builders

For participants who once considered Kalshi’s offerings as a way to hedge uncertainty around events, the Nevada ruling highlights the volatility of a regulatory landscape that remains unsettled at the state level. The outcome could influence where Kalshi and other prediction-market platforms search for licenses, or whether they pivot to offer alternative products that fit within existing regulatory frameworks. Investors and developers alike should monitor both state actions and federal court challenges, as a ripple effect could shape pathway approvals, compliance costs, and the speed at which new markets might emerge in regulated environments.

From a market-structure perspective, the clash underscores a growing complexity for platforms that rely on real-money participation tied to outcome-based events. If regulators ultimately converge on a uniform approach—whether to treat such markets as gambling, as regulated derivatives, or under a hybrid framework—the regulatory timeline and required safeguards will determine how quickly participants can access these products in major markets.

What to watch next

The Nevada case remains open as the court continues to consider longer-term restrictions beyond the current injunction. Key questions include whether Kalshi can secure the necessary gaming licenses in Nevada, how the company will position its product as it navigates state-by-state licensing regimes, and how federal authorities will respond to continued state-level challenges. In parallel, lawmakers in other states may push forward with legislation that redefines the legal boundaries of prediction markets, potentially accelerating a more unified approach—or further fragmenting access across the United States.

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Readers should stay tuned for court updates, as well as any statements from the CFTC or Kalshi on the evolving regulatory posture. The next phase will likely clarify whether prediction markets survive within a patchwork of state licenses and whether federal guidance or court rulings will ultimately steer the sector’s regulatory trajectory.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Kalshi faces Nevada setback as judge rejects defense

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U.S. court freezes 70 BTC in Blockfills dispute as investor sues over locked funds

A Nevada court has moved to keep Kalshi out of the state’s event-contract market while the legal fight continues. 

Summary

  • Nevada judge backed regulators and said Kalshi’s event contracts are no different from sports betting.
  • The ruling extends Kalshi’s Nevada ban while the court reviews longer-term restrictions through April 17.
  • The case deepens the clash between state gambling laws and federal oversight claims over prediction markets.

The ruling came after the Nevada Gaming Control Board asked the court to block the company from offering contracts tied to sports, elections, and entertainment outcomes.

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The case adds to a wider debate over whether prediction market contracts fall under federal derivatives law or state gambling rules. Kalshi has said its products are financial contracts, while Nevada regulators have argued that the offerings match gambling activity under state law.

Judge Jason Woodbury said he would grant a preliminary injunction against Kalshi at a hearing in Carson City. According to Reuters, the order prevents the company from allowing Nevada residents to trade event contracts without a gaming license.

The move extends a temporary restraining order issued on March 20. That order will stay in effect through April 17 while the court completes the next steps in the case.

Kalshi had argued that its contracts are “swaps” and fall under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The company has maintained that federal law gives the CFTC authority over these products.

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The judge did not accept that position. Reuters reported that Woodbury said buying a contract tied to a game result is the same as placing a wager through a sportsbook. He said, “No matter how you slice it, that conduct is indistinguishable.”

State regulators score early court win

The ruling marks the first time a state has secured a court-enforced ban that is currently active against Kalshi. That gives Nevada an early legal win as more states question prediction markets tied to sports and similar events.

Utah has also moved against the sector. Lawmakers there passed a bill last month that classifies proposition-style bets on in-game events as gambling and seeks to block such products from platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The dispute also comes as the CFTC continues to defend its role in prediction markets. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said last month that the agency is ready to fight in court to protect its jurisdiction from states and other regulators.

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Selig also described prediction markets as “truth machines” during an industry conference. He said markets where users risk money on outcomes can offer a clearer signal about future events than opinion polls, setting up a sharper clash between federal oversight claims and state gaming laws.

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AI Fallout Begins as Claude Creators Cut Off Their Most Powerful Users

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Anthropic confirmed it will block Claude subscription access for third-party AI agent tools, including OpenClaw, effective April 5 at 12 pm PT.

The policy shift forces thousands of developers who built autonomous workflows on flat-rate Claude plans to either pay API token rates or migrate to competing models.

Why Anthropic Cut OpenClaw From Claude Subscriptions

Boris Cherny, Anthropic’s Head of Claude Code, announced the restriction, indicating that subscriptions were never designed for the heavy usage patterns generated by third-party agentic tools.

“Capacity is a resource we manage thoughtfully, and we are prioritizing our customers using our products and API,” he said.

The economic mismatch had been growing for months. Agentic loops in OpenClaw can consume millions of tokens in a single session.

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A single afternoon of automated debugging could burn through enough tokens to cost upwards of $1,000 at standard API rates, Skypage making $200 flat-rate subscriptions deeply unprofitable for Anthropic.

Anthropic offered subscribers a one-time credit equal to their monthly plan cost, discounted usage bundles, and full refunds for those who cancel.

Developer Backlash and Migration Signals

The response has been quick, with some users already canceling their subscriptions. The general sentiment is that the decision is an admission that Anthropic cannot compete with open-source agents.

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“No thanks. Subscription canceled. New models have already been configured,” wrote one user.

Developer Alex Finn called it a “massive mistake” and predicted local models would match Opus 4.6 performance within six months.

He outlined a hybrid setup using Claude Opus as orchestrator with Gemma 4 and Qwen 3.5 for execution, costing roughly $200 monthly.

Others criticize Anthropic for gaslighting users, arguing that the company initially blamed usage patterns before admitting it was prioritizing its own products.

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Users want published token budgets for each subscription tier and advance notice of future policy changes.

A Dual Strategy Takes Shape

The timing reveals a broader Anthropic play as the company expands its Microsoft 365 connector to all Claude plans, including Free.

The integration connects Claude with Outlook, SharePoint, OneDrive, and Teams, Microsoft positioning it directly against Microsoft Copilot’s $30-per-user monthly pricing.

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OpenClaw creator Peter Steinberger recently joined OpenAI, VentureBeat, adding competitive tension to the decision.

Anthropic has been building Claude Cowork as an alternative to third-party agent tools, and this restriction steers users toward that product.

Whether the cost of lost developer trust outweighs the infrastructure savings remains the open question heading into Q2 2026.

The post AI Fallout Begins as Claude Creators Cut Off Their Most Powerful Users appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Experts say 24/7 markets will stop brokers from ‘hunting’ your stop losses after-hours

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Experts say 24/7 markets will stop brokers from 'hunting' your stop losses after-hours

If the closing bell has long been a business model, then 24/7 trading is an attempt to break it. As the NYSE, Nasdaq, CME and Cboe race to introduce round-the-clock trading, the question is who stands to gain and who could lose.

The answer is quite simple, Mati Greenspan, CEO and founder of Quantum Economics, told CoinDesk: “The biggest losers in 24/7 stock trading won’t be traders: they’ll benefit massively. It’ll be the middlemen who’ve long made money when traders can’t trade.”

Greenspan, also a market analyst, alleged that when markets reopen after what he called a big event, “a handful of firms decide the first tradable price. Oftentimes, they will explicitly use a price that triggers stop losses for their clients, closing them out at a loss and making a profit for the broker who is essentially trading against the client.”

When Greenspan was asked whether brokers coordinate around pricing during market closures, he was blunt in his claim: “Yes, manipulation outright.”

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“They basically get to control prices, often with hours to strategize,” he said. “Often hunting stops losses. When big news happens on weekends, the house tends to take liberties with pricing at the opening bell.”

His comments come as several major U.S. exchanges are looking to offer around-the-clock trading services. The NYSE said it is seeking SEC approval for 24/7 trading. Nasdaq announced similar plans in December. CME plans to roll out 24-hour crypto futures in 2026, pending approval, and Cboe recently expanded U.S. index options to 24/5 trading.

‘Plausible deniability’

While Greenspan’s comments could be seen as accusatory, it’s not hard to see why such practices could be prominent in the after-hours market. When the usual trading hours come to a close, at 4 p.m. ET, the thin liquidity can make prices easier to influence.

“After the 4 p.m. closing bell, you simply don’t have the same liquidity,” said Joe Dente, a floor broker at the New York Stock Exchange. “People have gone home and the liquidity is not there, so you’re going to see larger spreads.”

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Wider spreads and thinner order books, he said, create an environment where price movements can be exaggerated compared with the regular session.

Academic research also supports the view that extended trading sessions are structurally different from core market hours. A widely cited joint UC Berkeley–University of Rochester study found that after-hours price discovery is “much less efficient,” citing lower volume and thinner liquidity that limit the speed at which information is incorporated into prices.

When asked whether manipulation already occurs during those periods, Dente said it is “possible,” but he also pointed out that “the event of 24-hour trading is going to leave things open to manipulation,” referring to conditions already seen in after-hours markets

Greenspan, meanwhile, noted that these alleged manipulation practices are “not exactly above board, so they [brokers who might be taking part in such actions] tend to maintain plausible deniability.”

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This is where the line between actual manipulation and proof that such practises occur starts to blur.

A widely cited SSRN study on opening price manipulation shows how brokers can influence prices during the pre-open auction by submitting and canceling large orders, temporarily pushing stocks away from their fundamental value before broader liquidity returns.

The research found that such manipulation can create distorted opening prices that are later corrected once the full market begins trading, leaving investors who bought at the inflated price with losses. Because these distortions occur before normal trading volume returns, the resulting price moves can appear indistinguishable from ordinary market volatility.

Still another broker, familiar with overnight trading practices and who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly, said thin overnight liquidity can occasionally make it easier for coordinated strategies to influence prices in less widely traded stocks.

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And this is not just anecdotal evidence.

In late 2025, the SEC settled charges over a multi-year spoofing scheme involving deceptive orders used to move prices in thinly traded securities. Regulators also fined Velox Clearing $1.3 million for failing to detect “layering” and “spoofing” in volatile stocks.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), in its 2026 Annual Regulatory Oversight Report, cited firms for “failing to maintain reasonably designed supervisory systems and controls, including with respect to the identification and reporting of potentially manipulative activity conducted in after-hours trading.”

A win for retail?

Whether it’s hard to point out how widespread these accusations are, one thing is for sure: if trading goes 24/7, traders will be the ultimate winners, particularly retail traders.

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In today’s electronic markets, traders who respond fastest to market news have a structural advantage.

“There’s always an edge for whoever has the fastest computers and the best program writers,” said Dente, noting that algorithms can react to news and orders “in a nanosecond.” For individual investors, he added, keeping up with that speed is difficult. “How does the human person keep up with that?”

And reacting to these events becomes even harder for smaller investors when the market is closed, leaving those retail or smaller traders at a massive disadvantage.

Pranav Ramesh, head of quantitative research for options at Nasdaq and co-founder of Leadpoet, said thin markets can amplify those risks.

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“Broker coordination may often show up as industry-wide alignment around routing and execution practices, especially where a large share of retail flow ends up with a small number of wholesalers,” he said. “Outside regular hours, scrutiny can be harder because the market is thinner and there are fewer straightforward reference points for investors to benchmark execution quality,” Ramesh said in his personal capacity.

Sources familiar with broker routing and liquidity practices told CoinDesk that price-setting power in thin sessions is real, particularly when major news breaks while markets are closed. According to those sources, coordination around routing, spreads and execution practices during extended gaps has historically been easier precisely because retail traders cannot participate.

This is precisely what around-the-clock trading will solve for traders, according to Greenspan, who said 24/7 markets would blunt fintech firms’ advantage by removing the weekend vacuum entirely.

The recent Middle East conflict has been a perfect example of how this can open up more trading opportunities when markets remain closed. Decentralized exchange, Hyperliquid, which trades on blockchain 24/7, has seen growing interest from traders betting on traditional financial assets, including oil and gold, during the weekend, when traditional exchanges are closed.

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It has become so popular that weekly derivatives trading volume on the platform topped $50 billion, while it generated $1.6 million in revenue over 24 hours, outpacing the entire Bitcoin blockchain’s revenue. The platform has also recently added an S&P 500 perpetual contract.

Needless to say, major exchanges will also likely benefit from trading fees if they open for 24/7 trading.

Whether round-the-clock trading ultimately weakens brokers’ influence on price setting remains to be seen. What is clear is that exchanges and investors stand to gain from markets that never close.

“Traders can react in real time without being at the mercy of the middlemen — the brokers,” said Greenspan.

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Read more: Bitcoin’s weekend selloff may be over with CME’s 24/7 crypto trading move

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Nevada Judge Extends Kalshi Ban, Rules Event Contracts Unlicensed Gambling

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Nevada Judge Extends Kalshi Ban, Rules Event Contracts Unlicensed Gambling

A Nevada judge has reportedly extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, ruling that the products constitute unlicensed gambling under state law.

Judge Jason Woodbury said at a hearing in Carson City on Friday that he will grant a preliminary injunction requested by the Nevada Gaming Control Board, barring the company from allowing residents to trade on outcomes such as sports, elections and entertainment events without a gaming license, according to Reuters.

The decision extends a temporary restraining order issued on March 20, which will remain in effect through April 17 while the court finalizes longer-term restrictions.

Kalshi, based in New York, has argued that its contracts are financial derivatives, specifically “swaps,” that fall under the exclusive oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Related: Appeals court denies Kalshi request to block Nevada enforcement action

Judge says Kalshi contracts mirror sports betting

Woodbury rejected Kalshi’s argument, claiming that there is a direct comparison between traditional sports betting and Kalshi’s platform, according to Reuters. He said that placing a wager through a licensed sportsbook and buying a contract tied to a game outcome are functionally the same, per the report.

“No matter how you slice it, that conduct is indistinguishable,” the judge reportedly said, adding that such activity qualifies as gaming under Nevada law and cannot be offered without proper licensing.

Kalshi notional volume. Source: Kalshi

The case marks the first time a state has secured a court-enforced ban currently in effect against the company.

Last month, Utah lawmakers also passed a bill targeting Kalshi and Polymarket that classifies proposition-style bets on in-game events as gambling, aiming to block such offerings in the state.

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Related: Kalshi CEO fires back against Arizona criminal charges as ‘total overstep’

CFTC vows court fight over prediction market oversight

The CFTC has asserted authority over prediction markets, with Chairman Michael Selig warning that the agency is prepared to defend its jurisdiction in court against any challenges from states or other regulators.

Speaking at an industry conference last month, Selig said prediction markets can act as “truth machines,” arguing that when participants put money behind their views, these markets can produce more transparent and reliable signals about future events than traditional opinion polling.

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