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S&P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets

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Editor’s note: S&P Global today releases Bitcoin volatility and market dynamics findings, highlighting Bitcoin’s shift from a niche asset to a market-connected instrument. The full report, Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk, examines price patterns, volatility, and the interplay with traditional markets, while noting that tokenized assets and new products introduce additional risks beyond the asset itself. As Cristina Polizu, Managing Director of S&P Global Ratings, emphasizes, volatility has trended down in the long term, yet remains linked to broader market conditions and carries custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Key points

  • Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, with increased liquidity from futures and ETFs.
  • Bitcoin Hedge Insights: Bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.
  • Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.
  • New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Why this matters

This research suggests Bitcoin’s volatility is trending lower over time while its market connections deepen, linking its performance to broader financial conditions. The addition of new products and tokenized offerings can add complexity and risk, influencing how investors assess exposure to digital assets and their role in diversified portfolios.

What to watch next

  • Monitor institutional adoption and liquidity trends as futures and ETFs expand.
  • Watch developments in tokenized bitcoin and other new-product offerings for risk implications.
  • Observe Bitcoin’s price behavior and its relationship to traditional markets as the asset evolves.

Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.

S&P Global Finds Bitcoin’s Evolving Role in Markets

— Bitcoin now accounts for more than half of cryptocurrency markets’ nearly $2.33 trillion capitalization*

— Bitcoin’s price has dropped by nearly half since October 2025

— Price volatility for bitcoin is on a long-term downward trend – though it remains higher than that of traditional assets

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NEW YORK (March 5, 2026) – S&P Global today published new research (see report link) examining how bitcoin has evolved from a niche asset to one with meaningful linkages to traditional financial markets.

Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ provides a detailed analysis of bitcoin’s market behavior, price patterns, and market trends.

Key findings from the research reveal:

    • Volatility Trends: Bitcoin’s price swings are on a long-term downward trend as institutional adoption grows, though they remain larger than those of traditional assets. A growing market for bitcoin futures and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) increased bitcoin adoption, which in turn increased liquidity.
    • Bitcoin Hedge Insights: The analysis indicates bitcoin functions more effectively as a hedge against long-term currency debasement than as a hedge against short-term inflation.
    • Structural Market Risks: Bitcoin’s trading structure, featuring leveraged perpetual futures markets and automated liquidations, amplifies price volatility compared to other financial assets.
    • New Product Risks: Innovations like tokenized bitcoin, ETFs, and Digital Asset Treasury companies introduce extra risks beyond the asset, including counterparty, custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.

Cristina Polizu, Managing Director, S&P Global Ratings, said: “Our research indicates that bitcoin’s volatility has trended down over the long term, and that its behavior is increasingly linked to broader market conditions. At the same time, the added complexity of new bitcoin-related products can introduce risks beyond the asset itself, including custodial, smart contract, and operational risks.”

Bitcoin Volatility Trends: A Deep Dive into Market Dynamics and Risk,’ is part of the Look Forward research series, special reports that offer a deep dive into the most important themes, trends, and topics that are transforming the global economy.

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S&P Global: Building on Growth in Digital Assets

S&P Global has continued driving growth in Digital Assets markets, underpinned by its leading analyst-driven research and opinions:

Media Contacts

Isabel Allanwood

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S&P Global

+ 44 7483 368 605

isabel.allanwood@spglobal.com

PR_COE@spglobal.com

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Russell Gerry

S&P Global Ratings

+44 7817 126 628

russell.gerry@spglobal.com

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About S&P Global

S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) enables businesses, governments, and individuals with trusted data, expertise and technology to make decisions with conviction. We are Advancing Essential Intelligence through world-leading benchmarks, data, and insights that customers need in order to plan confidently, act decisively, and thrive economically in a rapidly changing global landscape.

From helping our customers assess new investments across the capital and commodities markets to guiding them through the energy expansion, acceleration of artificial intelligence, and evolution of public and private markets, we enable the world’s leading organizations to unlock opportunities, solve challenges, and plan for tomorrow – today. Learn more at www.spglobal.com.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Stablecoins Moved More Money Than the US Financial System’s Backbone

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Stablecoin monthly transaction volume reached $7.2 trillion in February 2026, overtaking the Automated Clearing House (ACH) network’s $6.8 trillion for the first time.

The ACH is an electronic payment network in the United States that enables transfers directly between bank accounts. It has become the most widely used infrastructure for handling electronic money movement across the country.

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It’s a symbolically significant milestone showing how massive crypto payment rails have become. The February crossover did not happen in isolation.

Artemis data shows that stablecoin volume climbed further in March, reaching $7.5 trillion. That figure matched ACH over the same period.

Meanwhile, the stablecoin market has continued to grow. DefiLlama data showed that the market capitalization surpassed $316.7 billion, setting a new all-time high. 

Notably, a recent report revealed that stablecoins dominated crypto markets in Q1 2026. They made up 75% of total trading volume, the largest share on record. 

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Overall transaction volume exceeded $28 trillion during the quarter, marking another all-time high. However, according to CEX.IO, automated trading played a major role, with bots responsible for 76% of the volume, the highest proportion seen in the past two years.

“Q1 2026 made the 2022 comparison hard to ignore. Stablecoin dominance rising sharply, capital rotating defensively, USDT and USDC diverging, automation surging, and retail pulling back — these patterns appeared together in mid-2022, and they are reappearing now. If broader bearish conditions persist through the year, stablecoins could see further demand and dominance gains in the coming quarters,” the report read.

The rising volumes reflect more than speculative activity. It also highlights the expanding use of these assets in real-world applications, including business-to-business (B2B) payments, cross-border transactions, and other financial activities.

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The post Stablecoins Moved More Money Than the US Financial System’s Backbone appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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IMF Says Tokenization Is a ‘Structural Shift’ in Finance, Not Just a Tech Upgrade

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IMF Says Tokenization Is a 'Structural Shift' in Finance, Not Just a Tech Upgrade

The International Monetary Fund also warns that the distribution and speed of on-chain transactions bring new challenges and risks that require international coordination.

In a new staff research note published on Thursday, The International Monetary Fund (IMF) argues that tokenization represents a “structural shift in financial architecture,” not just an incremental efficiency gain.

Authored by Tobias Adrian — the IMF’s Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department — the report focuses on the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) within the regulated financial system, namely banks, finance infrastructure, and asset managers, arguing that’s where “the most consequential transformation occurs.”

Settlement Speed Is a Double-Edged Sword

The IMF’s core thesis is that tokenization doesn’t just make existing finance faster, but represents a shift in how trust, settlement, and risk management work. In TradFi, trust is embedded in regulated intermediaries and time-delayed processes (end-of-day settlement, batch reconciliation). Those frictions, the report notes, actually serve a purpose: they give regulators and institutions time to intervene before a crisis cascades.

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Tokenization, which the note defines broadly as “the representation of financial assets and liabilities on programmable digital ledgers,” collapses those frictions, bringing what is generally referred to as the primary benefits of blockchain: near instant settlement, 24/7 liquidity, etc. But, the report notes, that this reduction of barriers introduces new challenges and risks.

“Liquidity demands materialize instantaneously,” the note warns, creating conditions where a smart contract bug or oracle failure could trigger a chain reaction before anyone can respond. The IMF argues:

“When trading, settlement, custody, and compliance are embedded in code, supervision must extend beyond market participants to the design, governance, and resilience of market infrastructures themselves. Failures can
originate in smart contracts, data feeds, or consensus mechanisms, rather than firm balance sheets.”

Who Controls the Money?

A major focus of the report is on the quetion of settlement assets. The IMF identifies three competing models: tokenized commercial bank deposits, regulated stablecoins, and what the report refers to as wholesale central bank digital currencies (wCBDCs), with each carrying different risk profiles.

Cross-Border Gaps and the Fragmentation Risk

The report highlights that a major concern around the tokenization of RWAs in regulated financial markets is jurisdictional: tokenized transactions execute across borders at machine speed, while resolution and crisis management frameworks are still built around nationally domiciled institutions.

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“Tokenization challenges crisis management and resolution frameworks that are built around nationally domiciled institutions, territorially bounded infrastructures, and jurisdiction-specific legal authority.“

In its research note, the IMF calls for international coordination and legal frameworks that can govern code itself, not just the institutions that deploy it.

“The key levers of control may lie in governance keys, consensus mechanisms, or smart contract logic operating across borders,” the note reads — a setup where no single regulator has a clear handle.

The report lands as the value of tokenized RWAs continue to surge, driven in part by tokenized funds from TradFi giants like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Janus Henderson.

In 2025, tokenized RWA value tripled over the course of the year as a wave of financial institutions began tokenizing U.S. treasuries, private credit, and other RWAs.

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Industry forecasts project the sector could hit $100 billion by end of 2026, with more than half of the world’s 20 largest asset managers expected to have launched RWA tokens by year-end.

Meanwhile, stablecoins have already begun functioning as mainstream financial infrastructure, with the GENIUS Act providing U.S. regulatory clarity in mid-2025.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

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Solo Bitcoin Miner Wins $210K Block Reward

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Mining

A solo Bitcoin miner secured a roughly $210,000 block reward on Thursday, proving that the so-called “mining lottery” is still paying out even if industrial operators dominate the network.

The miner, connected to CKPool’s solo service, found block 943,411 and earned 3.139 BTC in subsidy and transaction fees, according to data from block explorer mempool.space.

Solo mining remains rare. Statistics compiled by Bennet’s tracker show that solo mining pools have found just 20 Bitcoin (BTC) blocks over the last 12 months, paying out a total of 62.96 BTC, roughly one win every 18.7 days on average. The longest “drought” between blocks was 58 days, and the previous solo win came on Feb. 28.

The win comes as Bitcoin mining grows increasingly competitive. Network difficulty, the measure of how hard it is to find a block, recently recorded its steepest adjustment since February, falling about 7.7% before rebounding 3.87% in the past 24 hours, reflecting weaker hashrate and briefly improving miners’ odds.

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Bitcoin difficulty relief is fleeting

Even so, current difficulty levels remain near historic highs, meaning the probability of any single solo miner discovering a block is still vanishingly small.

Related: Solo Bitcoin miner bags over $200K block reward using rented hashrate

Public trackers like CoinWarz show Bitcoin’s difficulty has climbed orders of magnitude over the past decade, with only brief downward adjustments when miners switch off unprofitable rigs or redirect machines to other workloads such as artificial intelligence.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Mining
Bitcoin difficulty over time. Source: CoinWarz

As difficulty grinds higher and input costs rise, the economics of mining increasingly favor large, well-capitalized operators over hobbyists.

Major listed Bitcoin miners are responding by reshaping their balance sheets and fleet strategies rather than betting on luck. Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC during the first quarter of 2026, according to a Thursday release, adding to a number of crypto miners and firms that have sold Bitcoin recently, including MARA Holdings, Genius Group and Nakamoto Holdings.

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Against that institutional backdrop, the CKPool win stands out as a reminder that individuals can still, on rare occasions, beat the odds.

Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author