SpaceX Called a Market Top Signal Just 2 Weeks After Its $86 Billion IPO

SpaceX went public on June 12. Fourteen days later, one of Europe’s largest asset managers is calling it a market top signal. Allianz Chief Investment Officer Ludovic Subran warned this week that SpaceX’s rapid return to capital markets has pushed a healthy rally into “bubble territory.”

The warning came days after SpaceX launched a $25 billion corporate bond sale, which rattled the price of shares in Elon Musk’s company. SPCX is down almost 19% over the last five days.

From Record IPO to Bubble Warning in 14 Days

Subran described SpaceX’s bond move as a prime example of markets shifting “from a healthy boom, a stretched boom . . . into bubble territory.” His core argument drew a sharp line between equity and debt investors.

“The guy just got $70 billion of funny money to play with to get us to space. Equity investors, you can take them to Mars. Bond investors are, like, ‘where is my coupon?’”
— Ludovic Subran, CIO, Allianz

The bond deal drew $89 billion in orders. Bankers upsized it from $20 billion to $25 billion to meet demand. SpaceX plans to use the proceeds to retire a $20 billion bridge loan it took on in March. Still, bond investors extracted a price premium.

The 2036 tranche priced at 1.4 percentage points above US Treasuries, roughly 0.4 points wider than similarly rated BBB peers, according to Bloomberg. Investment-grade US companies currently borrow at under 0.8 points above Treasuries, near a multi-decade low.

A Poster Child That Could Become a Catalyst

SPCX opened at $150 on June 12. It surged to an intraday high of $225.64 by June 16. Then it reversed. As of June 26, SPCX trades near $152 — a 32% drop from peak, erasing over $600 billion in market value in under two weeks.

That slide now reshapes the broader IPO pipeline. As BeInCrypto reported earlier this week, OpenAI leans toward pushing its own listing to 2027, citing choppy markets and weakening retail appetite after SpaceX’s turbulent debut.

Analysts had warned before the listing that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic together could flood public markets with roughly $3 trillion in new equity supply, more than the entire US IPO market raised from 2016 to 2025. Easy to imagine given the near $86 billion raised by SpaceX alone.

SpaceX’s bond sale adds another $25 billion to that total demand. Susquehanna started coverage of SPCX with a Neutral rating and a $170 price target. Morningstar set its best-case fair value at $169, flagging the stock as significantly overvalued at its peak.

SpaceX reports its first public earnings on August 6. That result will likely determine whether the post-IPO slide marks a correction or the start of something wider.

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