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SpaceX IPO Could Reshape Space Sector Valuations With a Record $75 Billion Listing

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • SpaceX targets $75B in its IPO, more than double the global record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. 
  • Starlink drove $8B in profit last year, making SpaceX already profitable ahead of its public listing. 
  • xAI, merged into SpaceX in February, burns $1B monthly, adding risk beneath the Starlink profit story.
  • Nasdaq rule changes allow SpaceX to join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 days, triggering billions in auto-buys.

SpaceX IPO preparations are attracting attention from financial markets worldwide. The company has confidentially filed with the SEC and targets a listing as early as June 2026.

SpaceX is looking to raise to $75 billion. That figure would surpass Alibaba’s US record of $22 billion set in 2014. Saudi Aramco holds the global benchmark at $29 billion, raised in 2019. SpaceX is targeting more than double both figures combined.

SpaceX IPO Exposes Deep Valuation Gaps Across the Space Sector

SpaceX reported $8 billion in profit last year on revenue between $15 and $16 billion. Nearly all of it came from Starlink, its satellite internet service.

The company is already profitable at scale, unlike most pre-IPO tech listings. This is not a company pitching an unproven future business model.

At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX trades at 110 times annual revenue. AST SpaceMobile, by comparison, trades at 452 times revenue and has not yet turned a profit.

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Rocket Lab trades at 62 times revenue and is also pre-profit. Both companies also rely partly on SpaceX for their own launch needs.

Market commentator Bull Theory flagged this valuation gap in a recent social media post. The account argued that such pricing between the sector leader and pre-profit rivals creates a conflict.

Historical precedent tends to favor a downward repricing of the smaller names. Investors are watching this dynamic closely.

The retail share allocation is set at 30%, which is three times the standard Wall Street norm. Musk appears to be deliberately converting his broad audience into direct shareholders through this structure.

Retail participation in the SpaceX IPO could therefore reach unusually high levels. The move sets this listing apart from most large-cap offerings in recent memory.

xAI Merger and Nasdaq Rule Changes Shape the Broader Investment Case

One underreported risk in the SpaceX IPO involves the February merger with xAI. The AI company is burning approximately $1 billion per month.

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The IPO pitch rests on Starlink’s margins sustaining those losses long enough. The goal is for orbital AI data centers to eventually generate independent revenue.

That makes this more than a standard space company listing. Investors are also funding an AI infrastructure play with no proven revenue to date.

The two businesses are now legally and financially inseparable following the merger. This adds a layer of risk not immediately visible in the headline numbers.

Nasdaq changed its index eligibility rules to accommodate SpaceX specifically. Under the new criteria, the company can join the Nasdaq 100 within 15 days of listing.

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That would trigger automatic purchases from index funds tracking the benchmark. Billions in forced buying could arrive shortly after trading begins.

The offering includes $24 billion in US government defense contracts and ownership of X, the social media platform. These assets broaden SpaceX well beyond its launch and satellite operations.

The SpaceX IPO is drawing comparisons to Facebook’s 2012 listing in scale and market impact. Unlike Facebook at that time, SpaceX is already generating substantial profits.

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Crypto World

Liquidity Determines Tokenization’s Value

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Liquidity Determines Tokenization’s Value

Opinion by: Sebastián Serrano, founder and CEO of Ripio.

For much of the past decade, the crypto industry has tried to tokenize niche assets in an attempt to reinvent finance. While creative, this approach has largely missed the core economic truth about where tokenization actually creates value.

In these early stages of blockchain adoption, tokenization works best not at the fringes of the economy, but at its center. The industry’s first instinct — to tokenize illiquid assets — was a miscalculation. The most successful tokenization effort involved the most liquid asset in the world (the US dollar) in the form of USD-backed stablecoins.

Stablecoin supply keeps climbing. Source: Artemis.

Today, companies are piloting tokenized versions of other highly liquid assets like Treasury bills, smaller currencies and increasingly, stocks. This is not accidental. Tokenization is most powerful when applied to assets that already have massive demand and standardized legal and financial frameworks. Liquidity is the precondition that allows tokenization to move from novelty to infrastructure.

Tokenize what people want

Tokenization should start with assets that are already in high demand. Money, sovereign debt and major financial instruments are the base layer of the global economy. They are used daily by governments, corporations and individuals. When you tokenize these assets, you are not trying to create demand from scratch. You are upgrading the rails on which trillions of dollars already move.

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If we look into our recent history, we find that electricity obviously wasn’t first used to power fancy art installations, but factories. Blockchains are no different. They reach their potential when they tokenize money and core financial primitives, not edge-case assets. 

Stablecoins succeeded. They mapped directly onto an existing, massive use case. Stablecoins move dollars globally, quickly and cheaply. Tokenized treasuries are gaining traction for the same reason. They represent a real, high-demand asset that institutions already hold at scale.

Tokenization adds the most value where frictions are large and expensive. Bonds move trillions of dollars, but they do so inefficiently. Tokenization compresses settlement from days to minutes. Tokenization allows assets and cash to move together, in real time, without relying on intermediaries. That changes the cost structure and risk profile of financial operations.

Network effects only emerge around assets in very high demand, like money and sovereign debt. When you tokenize them, you create immediate interoperability. Everyone can build around the same unit of account. This is why stablecoins became the backbone of on-chain finance.

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Related: Australia’s central bank backs tokenization as pilot finds $16.7B upside

NFTs and highly bespoke RWAs are the opposite. They are fragmented by design. Each asset is unique, legally ambiguous and difficult to standardize. That makes them incapable of becoming a shared economic layer. They may have cultural or speculative value, but they cannot anchor broad financial network effects.

Market effects of tokenizing liquid assets

Adding programmability to illiquid assets, you can fractionalize ownership or automate certain workflows. You do not, however, unlock new forms of economic coordination. The asset still does not trade frequently. It still lacks deep markets. 

With liquid assets, however, tokenization unlocks entirely new financial behaviors. Continuous settlement, streaming payments, automated collateral management. These are just some of the novelties that tokenization can bring.

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There are other considerations. Can you use a given tokenized asset as collateral? This is an important question, and the answer is that it mostly depends on liquidity. After all, liquid assets can be safely integrated as collateral into automated systems. Their valuations are transparent and updated in real time. 

Roughly $96 billion in liquid assets are locked and used across DeFi protocols. Source: DefiLlama.

Illiquid assets, however, have sporadic trades, subjective valuations and wide bid-ask spreads. Their nature makes them very difficult to use as collateral. Tokenization doesn’t solve that problem. This reduces demand for the asset.

Capital efficiency also improves significantly for liquid assets. Tokenized liquid instruments can potentially be rehypothecated, fractionally deployed and programmatically allocated in real time. Capital moves faster across the system. But tokenization doesn’t produce continuous markets for illiquid assets. 

Reducing risk through clarity

Dollars, government bonds and large corporate debt have well-established legal status, issuer accountability and regulatory frameworks. Tokenization can fit within existing financial law, making institutional adoption far more straightforward.

It’s harder for NFTs. Questions about ownership, custody, enforceability and investor protection can outweigh technical benefits. In practice, these uncertainties raise risk rather than reduce it. It’s natural for large, institutional tokenization endeavours to focus on liquid assets first. 

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The future of tokenization will be defined by assets that are economically central. Obviously, the crypto sector’s early experiments with NFTs were necessary and understandable. It was difficult for NFTs to succeed in the long term. They were focused on the wrong type of asset.

Stablecoins proved this by upgrading the most liquid asset in the world. Tokenized government bonds and equities are the logical next step. This is how blockchains move from experimental technology to foundational financial infrastructure.

Opinion by: Sebastián Serrano, founder and CEO of Ripio.