Crypto World
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Log Fifth Straight Week of Outflows as Institutional Demand Cools
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a fifth consecutive week of net withdrawals, extending the longest negative streak since early 2025 as institutional demand softened alongside a broader pullback in digital assets.
Key Takeaways:
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a fifth straight week of withdrawals, losing about $316 million and roughly $3.8 billion over the streak.
- Midweek selling outweighed Friday inflows, showing cooling institutional demand despite stable prices.
- Capital appears to be rotating within crypto funds, with Ether also seeing outflows while Solana and XRP products drew inflows.
Data from SoSoValue shows the 12 funds collectively lost about $316 million during the week ending Feb. 20.
Trading activity was compressed into four sessions due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, and the first three days all closed negative.
Bitcoin ETFs Post Heavy Midweek Outflows Despite Friday Rebound
Roughly $105 million exited on Tuesday, followed by $133 million on Wednesday and $166 million on Thursday.
A modest recovery on Friday, when $88 million flowed back into the products, was not enough to reverse the weekly trend. BlackRock’s IBIT led the rebound with about $64.5 million in inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC added roughly $23.6 million.
The current run of outflows began the week of Jan. 20 and has removed around $3.8 billion from the Bitcoin ETF complex.
The last comparable stretch occurred nearly a year ago during a tariff-driven market sell-off that also weighed on risk assets.
While the duration of the streak matches that period, the magnitude has been smaller, with the heaviest withdrawals concentrated in late January when funds lost $1.33 billion and $1.49 billion in consecutive weeks.
More recent weekly losses have ranged between roughly $316 million and $360 million.
Despite the withdrawals, the ETF market remains substantial. Cumulative net inflows since launch in January 2024 still total about $54 billion, and aggregate net assets stand near $85.3 billion.
Bitcoin has traded around $68,600, down more than 20% year to date and below a key onchain level identified by analysts as separating expansion from consolidation phases.
Ether funds showed a similar pattern, losing about $123 million during the week and extending their own five-week streak of withdrawals.
By contrast, newer products tied to Solana attracted approximately $14.3 million in inflows, while XRP-based funds recorded a modest $1.8 million gain.
The divergence suggests capital is rotating within crypto investment products rather than leaving the sector altogether, with investors repositioning across assets as sentiment remains cautious rather than panicked.
Trump Media Files for Bitcoin, Ether and Cronos ETFs With Staking Rewards
Last week, Trump Media and Technology Group filed applications for two cryptocurrency ETFs that would track Bitcoin, Ether and the Cronos (CRO) token, expanding the company’s involvement in digital assets.
The proposed “Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF” would primarily follow the performance of the two largest cryptocurrencies, while the “Truth Social Cronos Yield Maximizer ETF” would provide exposure to CRO.
The Cronos-focused fund would also offer staking rewards, with Crypto.com serving as custodian and providing liquidity and staking services.
Trump Media has also signaled interest in integrating blockchain beyond ETFs.
The company recently said it intends to distribute a new digital token to shareholders on the Cronos network and previously disclosed plans for a corporate crypto treasury involving CRO.
The post Spot Bitcoin ETFs Log Fifth Straight Week of Outflows as Institutional Demand Cools appeared first on Cryptonews.
Crypto World
SegWit Debate Reignites as Developer Calls Bitcoin Upgrade Technically Flawed
TLDR:
- SegWit’s soft fork structure detached signatures from transactions but increased protocol complexity for long-term maintenance.
- Developers argue soft forks restrict the range of upgrades compared with direct hard fork protocol changes.
- The debate reflects tension between backward compatibility and Bitcoin’s need for technical evolution.
- SegWit’s activation still influences how governance decisions are framed inside the Bitcoin community.
A long-running debate over Bitcoin’s SegWit upgrade has resurfaced after a developer published a detailed critique on X. The post challenges both the technical design of SegWit and the governance philosophy behind its activation.
It argues that the upgrade added complexity while restricting future network changes. The remarks have renewed discussion about how Bitcoin evolves and who controls that process.
SegWit criticism focuses on soft fork design and technical complexity
In a tweet, Calin Culianu described SegWit as an unnecessarily complicated solution to transaction signature handling.
He said the upgrade detached signatures from transactions through what he labeled extension blocks, increasing structural overhead for nodes.
According to his account, a direct redesign using a hard fork would have delivered a simpler and cleaner transaction format. He argued that the chosen method forced developers to rely on backward-compatible tricks instead of straightforward protocol changes.
SegWit activated in 2017 through a soft fork tied to Bitcoin Core version 0.13.1, according to historical release records.
The soft fork approach allowed older nodes to remain operational without recognizing the new rules.
Culianu said this design introduced long-term technical debt and made future upgrades harder to implement. He framed SegWit as a symbolic test that normalized complex upgrades rather than transparent protocol changes.
Bitcoin governance dispute centers on hard forks and network scalability
The post also criticized what it called a cultural shift toward rejecting hard forks entirely within Bitcoin development circles.
Culianu claimed this position emerged to preserve compatibility rather than to improve performance or transaction throughput.
He argued that soft forks limit the scope of possible upgrades, including those aimed at higher transaction capacity.
His comments linked SegWit’s design to broader resistance against expanding block space or altering core rules directly.
The developer suggested that avoiding hard forks reduced the risk of chain splits but also constrained innovation. He said this model made large-scale changes politically difficult, even when technical needs grew.
Community reactions on social platforms showed mixed responses, with some defending SegWit’s role in fixing transaction malleability.
Others echoed concerns that governance priorities had shifted away from scalability and toward strict conservatism. The discussion reflects ongoing tension between stability and adaptability in Bitcoin’s development path.
It also highlights how past technical choices continue to shape present debates over decentralization and network capacity.
Crypto World
ProShares’ stablecoin-ready ETF has $17 billion debut, sparking speculation about Circle
ProShares’ new ETF built for the fast-growing, $300 billion world of stablecoins had a massive launch, fueling speculation that one major stablecoin issuer may be involved.
The fund, called the ProShares GENIUS Money Market ETF (IQMM), is designed to hold short-term U.S. Treasuries and meet the reserve requirements laid out in the GENIUS Act, a federal law regulating stablecoin issuers in the U.S. It’s the first ETF structured specifically to fit those rules, and that positioning may have caught the attention of some of the largest players in crypto.
The ETF logged a whopping $17 billion in trading volume on its first day, suggesting that some large players were allocating to the fund. For context, BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF — one of the most anticipated launches in many years— saw $1 billion in first-day volume.
Circle moving funds or internal shuffle?
The massive volume has left analysts speculating about the source of the inflows.
Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said in an X post that the heavy flows might signal a deal with a major U.S.-based stablecoin issuer. “Looking at assets, believe that would only leave Circle,” he said, referring to the company behind the $74 billion USDC token.
However, Circle’s main reserve fund for USDC, managed by BlackRock, hasn’t shown any major changes so far. It held nearly $64 billion in assets as of Friday, up from $59 billion at the end of January, data shows.
What’s more likely is that the initial volume came from ProShares’ own funds moving assets for cash management purposes.
Ben Johnson, head of client solutions for asset management at Morningstar, noted that one of ProShares’ leveraged ETFs, QTTT, moved $6 billion into IQMM on launch day. That kind of internal allocation would explain a large portion of the day-one activity.
Playbook for stablecoin reserves
Still, demand from stablecoin issuers is a real possibility. With over $300 billion in U.S. dollar stablecoins in circulation, a significant portion of those reserves could eventually be allocated to ETFs like IQMM.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, wrote in a Friday report that IQMM is “currently the only purpose-built tool” that meets the GENIUS Act rules while providing high-speed liquidity.
That could make it a go-to choice for U.S.-based issuers like Circle, Paxos and BitGo — and even for banks looking to issue their own tokenized deposits under the new law. Tether, which runs the largest stablecoin in the world with the $184 billion USDT token, has also rolled out a stablecoin with federal bank Anchorage Digital in the U.S. market.
As stablecoins become increasingly regulated with new tokens launching, tens of billions in additional assets could eventually flow into funds like IQMM, Thielen said.
Crypto World
Bitdeer Bitcoin Holdings Drop to Zero as Miner Sells Entire Reserve
TLDR:
- Bitdeer’s weekly update confirmed zero corporate Bitcoin holdings after selling both new output and reserves.
- The company mined 189.8 BTC and sold 1,132.9 BTC total during the reporting period ending February 20.
- Bitdeer now leads public miners in self-managed hashrate, surpassing Marathon Digital’s internal capacity.
- A $325 million convertible notes deal supported debt refinancing and data center expansion for mining and AI services.
Bitdeer disclosed that it now holds zero Bitcoin after selling its entire treasury position. The move followed a week in which the company mined Bitcoin and liquidated both new output and reserves.
The update placed Bitdeer at the top of publicly traded miners by self-managed hashrate. The announcement triggered a market reaction and renewed focus on miners’ balance sheet strategies.
Bitdeer Bitcoin holdings fall to zero after full liquidation
Bitdeer reported that its pure Bitcoin holdings dropped to zero as of February 20, 2026. The company clarified that the figure excludes customer deposits and reflects only corporate reserves.
Data shared through its weekly update showed Bitcoin output of 189.8 BTC during the period. Bitdeer sold the same 189.8 BTC and an additional 943.1 BTC from existing reserves.
The company posted the figures on its official X account, accompanied by a line chart. The chart tracked output, sales, net additions, and holdings from late January through February 20.
The update followed a $325 million convertible notes offering earlier this month. The funding aimed to refinance debt and support expansion of mining and AI cloud infrastructure.
Bitdeer linked the decision to higher operating costs and reduced reliance on volatile Bitcoin reserves. The firm has increased focus on liquidity management while scaling its data center footprint.
Self-managed hashrate surpasses Marathon as market reacts
Bitdeer’s self-managed Bitcoin hashrate has now surpassed that of Marathon Digital, also known as Mara. This milestone makes Bitdeer the publicly traded miner with the largest internally operated hashrate.
The company emphasized that self-managed capacity excludes hosted or customer-owned mining machines. This metric reflects only infrastructure controlled directly by Bitdeer.
The mining firm is owned by Jihan Wu, a long-time figure in the mining sector. His company has shifted toward vertical integration of mining and computing services.
Following the disclosure, Bitdeer shares fell about 2 percent to roughly $7.78. The decline reflected investor concern over dilution tied to the recent convertible debt issuance.
Company updates described the Bitcoin sales as part of a broader liquidity strategy. The approach prioritizes funding for energy costs and capital-intensive expansion projects.
Bitdeer continues to report weekly figures on production and asset movements. The firm has positioned transparency as a way to track operational performance in a competitive mining market.
Crypto World
When Will Ripple’s (XRP) Bull Run Resume? We Asked 4 AIs (And Their Answers Surprised Us)
The AI solutions agreed that XRP is currently hunting for a bottom. Also, a few of them put massive price targets for the asset.
Ripple’s cross-border token has been highly volatile since the US presidential elections in late 2024. At the time, it traded at $0.60, exploded to its 2018 all-time high of $3.40 in January 2025, plunged in the following months, before it skyrocketed to a new record of $3.65 in July.
Since then, it has been mostly downhill, with the asset currently sitting below $1.40 – or a 62% decline since the July peaks. Most recently, it was rejected at $2.40 in early January, dumped to $1.11 a month later, but has found some support at the aforementioned level.
Being more than 60% down in just several months puts it in a bearish territory. Consequently, we decided to ask ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, and Perplexity how long it would take for XRP to reignite its bull run and head for new records.
Find a Bottom First
Before even having a theoretical chance of reversing its trend, XRP would need to bottom out first. OpenAI’s platform noted that the token is currently searching for it, which could happen by April, but before it does, it could face even harsher declines if history is any indication:
“Historically, February has been weak for XRP, and 2026 is no exception. The asset has posted losses in most Februarys, averaging declines and severe drawdowns in prior cycles.”
Nevertheless, ChatGPT and Perplexity agreed that several factors have aligned to suggest that XRP’s bottom might be rather close – a 50% month decline from January 6 to February 6 was met with immediate buying pressure, funding rates reached deeply negative levels, a development that preceded rallies in the past, and panic selling appears to have subsided.
Recovery and Run Reignition
Gemini and Grok were somewhat optimistic that XRP could indeed locate a bottom by spring 2026, which would open the door for the next phase – “base building and recovery.” In this neutral-to-cautiously bullish stage, XRP could regain some traction by the beginning of the summer season.
Gemini was even more specific, indicating that the asset would need to reclaim the 50-day EMA, currently located at around $1.80, to signal the traditional exit from bearish territory.
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ChatGPT agreed to an extent, but warned that most of the highly anticipated bullish catalysts from the past few years, such as the SEC lawsuit resolution and the approval of spot XRP ETFs, are already behind the token, so it might be in search of new ones. As such, it was rather conservative in predicting a target for the summer, putting a base case around the $2.40 range.
“If XRP reclaims $2, the market will likely consider the bear phase technically over,” said Grok.
All AIs noted that a full-on bull phase wouldn’t start by at least Q3 of this year, most likely in Q4. Once it begins, though, they added that XRP is positioned to benefit a lot, indicating some massive targets for the longer-run.
“$8 by year-end 2026 in aggressive institutional adoption scenarios,” said ChatGPT
“$8-13 long-term consolidation breakout targets,” – noted Perplexity.
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Crypto World
SBI Launches Security Token Bonds With XRP Rewards for Retail Investors
TLDR:
- SBI will issue Security Token bonds through blockchain instead of traditional depository systems used in Japanese capital markets.
- Retail investors can trade the bonds on a digital exchange platform starting in March 2026.
- Eligible bondholders will receive XRP benefits tied to their subscription and interest payment dates.
- The project supports Japan’s push to merge regulated finance with token-based settlement systems.
SBI Holdings has unveiled plans to issue its first Security Token bonds aimed at individual investors in Japan. The offering marks a shift from traditional bond management toward blockchain-based issuance and settlement.
Trading will begin on a digital marketplace designed for retail participation. The move signals a broader push to integrate tokenized assets into regulated capital markets.
Security Token bonds enter Japan’s retail market
SBI Holdings filed an amended shelf registration with the Kanto Local Finance Bureau to prepare the bond sale. The bonds will carry the nickname SBI START Bonds and operate under a digital transfer registration system.
Unlike conventional bonds recorded through Japan Securities Depository Center, the issuance will rely on blockchain infrastructure. SBI will use the ibet for Fin platform developed by BOOSTRY to manage the full lifecycle.
The digital system will handle issuance, administration, and redemption electronically. SBI said this approach removes paper-based processing and reduces reliance on legacy settlement workflows.
Retail trading will start on March 25, 2026, through the proprietary trading system START. The platform is operated by Osaka Digital Exchange and will allow individual investors to buy and sell the bonds in an open market.
XRP rewards and blockchain settlement model
Investors who purchase the Security Token bonds will receive XRP benefits linked to their subscription amounts. SBI confirmed that only domestic residents and corporations qualify for the incentive.
To receive the XRP, bondholders must open an account with SBI VC Trade and complete required procedures by the stated deadline. Distribution will occur on each interest payment date through 2029.
The company framed the reward structure as part of its broader digital asset strategy. SBI has expanded its blockchain operations through partnerships, investments, and proof-of-concept trials across Japan.
The group said tokenized bonds support its vision of an economy where transactions and settlements occur directly on blockchain networks. Officials also stated that growth in the Security Token bond market could help modernize Japan’s capital markets.
According to the company’s disclosure, the issuance will not materially affect consolidated financial results. SBI positioned the project as an infrastructure experiment rather than a revenue driver.
The bond launch follows a wider trend among Japanese financial firms to test tokenized securities under existing regulatory frameworks.
SBI described the initiative as a step toward linking traditional finance with on-chain settlement systems while keeping investor protections intact.
Crypto World
Bitcoin Price Metric Reveals $122K Average Return Over 10 Months
Bitcoin has drawn renewed attention from traders and analysts as data-driven signals suggest a potential upside path into 2027, even amid a recent stretch of muted sentiment. An informal metric developed by market economist Timothy Peterson points to an 88% probability that BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, a claim grounded in monthly patterns dating back to 2011. If history repeats, the model implies a price near $122,000 per coin within ten months, positioning Bitcoin for what some view as an “average return” rather than a rapid meteoric rise. The narrative sits alongside a broader chorus of bullish commentary from major banks and market observers who continue to think Bitcoin can stage a substantial recovery in the coming year, even as risk-off currents persist across traditional markets.
Key takeaways
- An informal metric from Timothy Peterson suggests a roughly 88% chance BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, based on historical frequency of positive months.
- Under this scenario, Bitcoin could reach about $122,000 per coin within ten months, which would equate to an “average return” given past performance since 2011.
- Despite a period of underperformance since late 2025, bullish forecasts remain active, with analysts highlighting inflection-point dynamics rather than precise price targets.
- Bernstein has surfaced a bulls-case target of around $150,000 for Bitcoin, underscoring continued institutional interest in a multiyear rally.
- Wells Fargo’s note flags potential capital inflows into Bitcoin and equities totaling about $150 billion by the end of March, suggesting further speculative appetite.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Bullish
Price impact: Positive. The convergence of upbeat forecasts and improving sentiment could support upside momentum for Bitcoin in the near term.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While the setup leans toward upside, volatility and macro risk warrant a cautious stance until clearer directional signals emerge.
Market context: The market has been digesting a mix of technical signals and macro influences, with a notable divergence between short-term momentum and longer-horizon forecasts. The discussion around Bitcoin’s path centers on whether historical patterns can translate into a sustained rally despite periodic pullbacks and risk-on/risk-off cycles that characterize crypto liquidity and funding conditions.
Why it matters
The ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s trajectory sits at the intersection of on-chain behavior, macro liquidity, and evolving investor psychology. If Peterson’s 88% odds hypothesis holds, it would suggest that the crypto market has entered a phase where repeated positive monthly readings can precede a meaningful upside. The reference point of $122,000, anchored to a decade of price data, provides a tangible milestone that traders and risk managers can monitor against volatility spikes and pullbacks.
Institutional interest remains a persistent tailwind for the bull case. Bernstein’s recent analysis arguing for a $150,000 target signals that large-scale wealth and professional funds continue to view Bitcoin as a potential long-horizon hedge and return driver, not merely a speculative asset. At the same time, Wells Fargo’s note on potential inflows—citing a $150 billion expansion into Bitcoin and equities by the end of March—highlights the interplay between crypto markets and traditional asset streams. The combination of high-conviction targets and expected capital inflows underscores a continued re-pricing dynamic in which narrative and data-driven signals reinforce each other.
Nonetheless, the mood within the market remains fractured. Peterson’s own work cautions that the metric he discusses emphasizes inflection points rather than precise targets, and a survey cited in the report points to prevailing bearish sentiment in parts of the crypto ecosystem. The tension between a favorable long-term thesis and a wobbling near-term momentum is typical of a market navigating a transition from macro-tilted risk-off periods to periods of renewed speculative interest. In other words, the narrative is compelling, but the path to a sustained rally is likely to be choppy, with volatility continuing to reflect shifting risk appetites across both crypto and broader financial markets.
Beyond the headline forecasts, the story includes practical market dynamics that have featured in recent reporting. For example, even as some analysts flag upside potential, others point to recent price patterns and the episodic nature of Bitcoin’s momentum. There is also recognition that positive data points can coexist with caution about timing—investors are watching for concrete catalysts that could shift the trajectory from consolidation to a more pronounced up-leg. The crypto ecosystem has also seen episodes where large holders or “whales” participate in accumulation, offsetting sell pressure and contributing to sporadic surges in price. This pattern of selective accumulation has been noted in related coverage and remains a factor that traders monitor as they assess the probability of a sustained breakout. See for example commentary highlighting whale-driven V-shaped accumulation as a counterweight to sell-offs.
In this backdrop, the narrative remains nuanced: the macro backdrop is not uniformly bullish, but there is a persistent belief among a subset of market observers that Bitcoin’s longer-run risk-reward profile justifies continued interest. The expectation is that if the next few quarters deliver supportive price action and a stream of positive signals—on-chain activity, liquidity, and institutional participation—the market could sustain an upward drift that aligns with the optimism expressed by Bernstein and others. Meanwhile, the data points that have historically preceded rallies—such as a persistent sequence of higher months and improving on-chain metrics—will continue to be scrutinized as potential inflection signals rather than definitive price triggers.
Additional context comes from the broader conversation around crypto sentiment and risk appetite. The market’s mood can swing rapidly in response to macro news, regulatory developments, or shifts in funding conditions on major exchanges. The 2021–2022 era of rapid price appreciation followed by sharp corrections has conditioned market participants to weigh upside potential against the risk of retracements. In that sense, Peterson’s framework offers a lens to identify potential turning points, while Bernstein’s and Wells Fargo’s forecasts remind investors that price targets are only one piece of a complex puzzle. Investors facing this environment are likely to weigh multiple signals—price momentum, on-chain activity, institutional commentary, and macro indicators—before committing to meaningful exposure shifts.
Looking ahead, the interplay between these forecasts, market sentiment, and actual price action will be pivotal. The crypto market has shown resilience when liquidity returns and risk tolerance improves, yet the path to a durable rally requires sustained participation from both retail and institutional players. As analysts continue to publish scenarios that hinge on historical patterns repeating, traders should remain attentive to contingency setups, including potential catalysts that could accelerate or pause the rally. The balance of probabilities remains cautiously bullish, anchored by data-driven signals and the prospect of deeper institutional engagement, but never free of risk.
Sources and verifications discussed in this article include a pair of data-driven signals and commentary from market researchers and financial institutions, along with linked materials that capture the ongoing discourse around Bitcoin’s price path.
What to watch next
- Monitor BTC price action toward the $122,000 target within the next ten months and observe how monthly performance aligns with Peterson’s frequency-based metric.
- Track updates to Bernstein’s price scenario and Wells Fargo’s capital-flow expectations for Bitcoin and related equities, including any new investor communications or research notes.
- Watch for shifts in market sentiment as measured by surveys or social-media signals tied to crypto views, particularly around inflection-point indicators.
- Observe on-chain accumulation patterns, especially among large holders, as reported in relevant analyses and linked research notes.
Sources & verification
- Timothy Peterson’s X posts detailing the 88% odds via a trailing-month metric measuring frequency of positive months (data goes back to 2011).
- Bernstein’s analysis citing a $150,000 BTC target and framing Bitcoin’s decline as the “weakest bear case” in history.
- Wells Fargo’s note on potential $150 billion in inflows into Bitcoin and stocks by the end of March, highlighting growth in speculative participation.
- Reports and data on whale accumulation dynamics and related on-chain signals referenced in coverage surrounding V-shaped accumulation patterns.
- Historical discussion of Bitcoin price targets and market sentiment within the crypto narrative and linked market commentary.
Bitcoin momentum and the road ahead
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has drawn renewed attention from traders and analysts as data-driven signals suggest a potential upside path into 2027, even amid a recent stretch of muted sentiment. An informal metric developed by market economist Timothy Peterson points to an 88% probability that BTC/USD will be higher by early 2027, a claim grounded in monthly patterns dating back to 2011. If history repeats, the model implies a price near $122,000 per coin within ten months, positioning Bitcoin for what some view as an “average return” rather than a rapid meteoric rise. The narrative sits alongside a broader chorus of bullish commentary from major banks and market observers who continue to think Bitcoin can stage a substantial recovery in the coming year, even as risk-off currents persist across traditional markets.
The analysis frames its outlook around a few core ideas. First, the notion that a substantial portion of monthly price action over the past two years has been positive—roughly half—creates a probabilistic backdrop for a potential upward swing. Peterson explains that his metric measures frequency, not magnitude, so it could still register a down-month even in a broader uptrend. Still, he notes the utility of the approach for identifying inflection points that might precede a new phase of price appreciation. In a post on X, he underscored that the method is informal but helpful for spotting transitions in momentum.
Second, a separate line of bullish thinking continues to gain attention from institutions. Bernstein’s research team has argued for a substantial upside with a $150,000 target, framing Bitcoin’s recent drawdown as a potential setup for a longer-term rebound. This view aligns with a segment of the market that sees Bitcoin as a multiyear hedging asset whose risk premium may be re-rated as liquidity conditions improve and macro narratives shift. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo’s note projects sizable inflows into Bitcoin and equities by the end of March, underscoring the belief that a broader wave of savings and speculative capital could re-enter risk assets in the near term. Analysts there highlighted the appeal of “YOLO” style trades in a climate of improved liquidity and improving sentiment among some investor cohorts.
Despite the sense of optimism, the market remains cautious. Peterson’s own work cautions that while the metric can help identify inflection points, it does not guarantee a particular price path. The broader sentiment picture includes pockets of bearishness, as evidenced by surveys and on-chain commentary, which means that buyers should be prepared for a choppy advance rather than a straight line higher. The fact that bullish scenarios coexist with continued caution is a reminder that Bitcoin’s price trajectory will be influenced by a blend of on-chain dynamics, macro trends, and evolving investor appetite.
As the calendar moves toward early 2027, the most pertinent questions revolve around whether the momentum signals can translate into sustained price gains and whether the demand side—institutional capital, wealth managers, and retail participants—will sustain a higher level of engagement. The references to the Bernstein and Wells Fargo analyses, coupled with Peterson’s frequency-based perspective, provide a framework for assessing how different catalysts—ranging from improved liquidity to renewed risk-appetite cycles—could align to support a longer-term uptrend. In a market where headlines oscillate between caution and confidence, the likely path forward is not a single, definitive move but a sequence of incremental advances punctuated by periods of consolidation. For traders and long-term holders alike, the question remains: where does the next decisive breakout come from, and how will risk controls shift as Bitcoin tests higher price levels?
For readers seeking a direct line of verification, the key pieces of evidence in this discourse include Peterson’s analysis shared on X, Bernstein’s bullish scenario, and Wells Fargo’s inflow projections, all of which sit alongside ongoing reporting on on-chain activity and macro risk signals that influence market direction.
Crypto World
Quantum Computing Threat: Zcash Co-Founder Warns It’s Coming for Bitcoin
TLDR:
- Crypto networks must formally recognize the quantum computing threat before technical mitigation efforts can move forward.
- Post-quantum cryptography already exists and can replace vulnerable signature schemes in major blockchain protocols.
- Expert-led teams will define standards and security levels for wallets and core crypto infrastructure.
- Implementation requires coordinated upgrades across protocols, wallets, and external blockchain services.
The quantum computing threat has moved back into focus after a warning from a leading cryptography figure in the crypto sector.
The message targets Bitcoin and other blockchains that still rely on traditional signature schemes. It outlines a structured path for how networks should prepare for a post-quantum future. The call stresses urgency but centers on coordination and technical readiness.
Quantum Computing Threat Prompts Call for Industry-wide Awareness
Eli Ben-Sasson, a co-founder of Zcash and chair of Starknet.io, shared a multi-step plan on social media to confront the quantum computing threat.
He said the first challenge lies in recognition. Networks must openly accept that large-scale quantum machines would weaken current cryptographic standards.
Education followed as the second priority. He urged developers and users to study both quantum progress and existing post-quantum cryptography options.
Ben-Sasson noted that secure alternatives already exist. He pointed to signature schemes and stronger hash requirements as areas ready for evaluation.
The post framed the issue as technical, not theoretical. It called on Bitcoin and other chains to treat quantum risk like any other core protocol vulnerability.
Post-quantum Cryptography Becomes a Development Priority
The third step focused on organizing expert teams. According to Ben-Sasson, blockchains must appoint specialists in post-quantum cryptography and fund their work.
He said collaboration should span multiple projects. Several parallel efforts would reduce reliance on a single standard or implementation.
Listening to technical feedback formed the fourth stage. Experts can define which cryptographic standards best fit blockchain systems and wallet infrastructure.
The final step centered on execution. Development teams should integrate new signature schemes into core protocols and external tools like wallets.
His comments highlighted infrastructure gaps. Wallet providers and node operators would need updates alongside consensus changes.
The message framed the quantum computing threat as a long-term engineering task. It did not suggest immediate disruption but warned against delay.
Social media reactions showed strong engagement from developers and security researchers. Many echoed the need for early testing and gradual deployment.
The discussion also reinforced a broader trend in crypto security. Networks increasingly prioritize resilience against future computing advances rather than current attack vectors.
Crypto World
This Bitcoin Miner Sold Its Entire BTC Stash as Profit Crashed
Singapore-based Bitcoin miner Bitdeer has liquidated its entire BTC treasury, abandoning the industry’s standard holding strategy.
This drastic move comes as plunging mining profitability forces the company to restructure its debt and accelerate its AI pivot.
Why did this Bitcoin Miner dump its Holdings?
On February 20, the crypto mining company disclosed it held zero Bitcoin, completely draining its reserves. Notably, this excludes its customer deposits.
The firm confirmed that it had sold its entire recent output of 189.8 Bitcoin, and posted a massive net reduction of 943.1 Bitcoin.
Indeed, this aggressive sell-off highlights a deepening crisis for operators caught in a severe margin squeeze.
Following a temporary reprieve caused by US winter storms that knocked domestic mining fleets offline, the Bitcoin network experienced a rapid V-shaped recovery.
This week, network difficulty surged 14.7%. This is the largest upward adjustment since May 2021 and erases the operational relief miners experienced earlier in the year.
Consequently, mining profitability, measured by hashprice, plummeted to under $30 per petahash per day. The critical metric now sits inches above its all-time low, pushing production costs higher.
Bitdeer Seeks Funding for AI Pivot
To navigate the crunch, Bitdeer is turning heavily to Wall Street to fund its pivot into artificial intelligence.
On February 20, the company announced an upsized $325 million private sale of convertible senior notes.
The sale, expected to close on February 24, includes an option for the initial purchasers to purchase an additional $50 million in notes.
The financial maneuvering is highly defensive. Bitdeer will allocate $138.2 million to repurchase its existing 5.25% convertible senior notes due in 2029. This effectively extends the miner’s runway by restructuring its debt.
Another $29.2 million will fund capped call transactions, an insurance policy that protects existing shareholders from dilution if the stock price rises.
The remaining proceeds signal a clear strategic departure from pure-play crypto mining.
Bitdeer stated it will use the fresh capital to expand its high-performance computing and AI cloud businesses, develop proprietary ASIC mining rigs, and fund data center expansion.
Meanwhile, the treasury liquidation and strategic pivot occur alongside a paradoxical industry milestone: Bitdeer is now the largest publicly traded self-miner in the world.
Recent reports have revealed that Bitdeer’s self-managed hash rate reached 63.2 exahashes per second, surpassing competitor Marathon Digital’s 60.4 EH/s. This makes the Singapore-based firm the largest publicly traded company with the highest self-managed Bitcoin hashrate.
Crypto World
BTC Price Analysis All But Guarantees Bitcoin Higher by Early 2027
Bitcoin past performance gave 88% odds of higher prices by early 2027, the latest in a series of new bullish BTC price predictions.
Bitcoin (BTC) at $122,000 in ten months could be an “average return” if history repeats itself.
Key points:
-
An “informal” Bitcoin price metric gives 88% odds of BTC/USD trading higher by early 2027.
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$122,000 per coin would mark an “average return” based on prior performance.
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Bullish BTC price predictions remain in place despite the current low sentiment.
BTC price ended half of past 24 months higher
New analysis from network economist Timothy Peterson gives almost 90% odds of a BTC price being higher by early 2027.
Bitcoin’s underperformance since Q4 2025 has not removed every bullish BTC price prediction that leverages historical data.
For Peterson, monthly price action over the past two years points to a recovery through the rest of the year.
“50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now,” he reported on X.
“The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011.”

In a previous post, Peterson acknowledged that trailing price performance is more useful for identifying trend “inflection points” than price targets.
“This metric measures frequency, not magnitude. So Bitcoin could trend sideways for months and this metric could still go down. But it is still very useful for identifying inflection points,” he wrote, calling the tool “informal.”

A survey conducted by Peterson on Sunday, meanwhile, underscored existing bearish crypto market sentiment.

Bitcoin bulls double down
As Cointelegraph reported, other market sources continue to beat on a major BTC price recovery in 2026.
Related: Bitcoin whales participate in V-shaped accumulation, offsetting 230K BTC sell-off
Among them is an analysis from Bernstein, which this month offered a $150,000 target, calling Bitcoin’s comedown its “weakest bear case” in history.
US banking giant Wells Fargo additionally sees $150 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin and stocks by the end of March.
“Speculation picks up with bigger savings…we expect YOLO to return,” analyst Ohsung Kwon wrote in a note last week.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
Crypto World
Crypto Capital Shifts From Tokens to Stocks as Launches Struggle: DWF
Investor capital increasingly flows from tokens into publicly listed crypto companies as new token launches struggle, according to research and commentary from market maker DWF Labs.
Drawing on Memento Research data covering hundreds of token launches across major centralized and decentralized exchanges, the firm said more than 80% of projects have fallen below their token generation event (TGE) price. Typical drawdowns range between 50% and 70% within roughly 90 days of listing, suggesting public buyers often face immediate losses after launch.
DWF Labs managing partner Andrei Grachev told Cointelegraph that the figures reflect a consistent post-listing pattern rather than short-term market volatility. He said most tokens reach a price peak within the first month and then trend downward as selling pressure builds.
“TGE price is the exchange-listed price set before launch,” Grachev said. “This is the price the token is set to open at on the exchange, so we can see how much the price actually changes due to volatility in the first few days,” he added.

The analysis focused on structured launches tied to projects with products or protocols, rather than memecoins. Airdrops and early investor unlocks were identified as major sources of selling pressure.
Related: Kraken-backed SPAC raises $345M in upsized Nasdaq IPO
Crypto IPOs, M&A surge as capital shifts from tokens
In contrast, capital formation has strengthened in traditional markets tied to the sector. Fundraising for crypto-related initial public offerings (IPOs) reached about $14.6 billion in 2025, up sharply from the prior year, while merger and acquisition (M&A) activity surpassed $42.5 billion, the highest level in five years.
Grachev said the shift should be understood as a rotation rather than a withdrawal of capital. If capital were simply leaving crypto, you wouldn’t see IPO raises jump 48x year-over-year to $14.6 billion, M&A hit a 5-year high of over $42.5 billion, and crypto equity performance outpacing token performance,” he said.
In its report, DWF compared listed companies such as Circle, Gemini, eToro, Bullish and Figure with tokenized projects using trailing 12-month price-to-sales ratios. Public equities traded at multiples between roughly 7 and 40 times sales, compared with 2 to 16 times for comparable tokens.
The firm argued that the valuation gap is driven by accessibility. Many institutional investors, including pension funds and endowments, are restricted to regulated securities markets. Public shares can also be included in indexes and exchange-traded funds, creating automatic buying from passive investment products.
Maksym Sakharov, co-founder and group CEO of WeFi, also confirmed to Cointelegraph that there has been a capital rotation from token launches. “When risk appetite tightens, investors don’t stop craving exposure, so they start demanding cleaner ownership, clearer disclosure, and a path to enforceable rights,” he said.
Sakharov added that the money is going toward businesses that look like infrastructure because of custody, payments, settlement, brokerage, compliance and plumbing. He noted that the “equity wrapper” is attractive because it aligns with real-world adoption, enabling licensing, audits, partnerships and distribution channels.
Related: CertiK keeps IPO on the table as valuation hits $2B, CEO says
Why investors favor crypto equities over tokens?
The market is increasingly treating tokens and businesses as separate things, Sakharov said, noting that a token alone cannot replace distribution or a working product. If a project fails to generate steady users, fees, transaction volume and retention, the token ends up priced on expectations rather than real activity, which is why many launches look successful at first but later disappoint.
Listed crypto equities are not necessarily safer, but they are clearer and easier for investors to evaluate, according to Sakharov. Public companies offer reporting standards, governance and legal claims, and they fit within institutional portfolio rules, whereas holding tokens often requires custody approvals and policy changes.
Grachev described this shift as structural rather than cyclical. While tokens will remain part of crypto networks for incentives and governance, he said institutional capital increasingly prefers equity rails.
“Tokens won’t disappear, but we’re seeing a permanent bifurcation: serious protocols with real revenue will thrive, while the long tail of speculative launches faces a much harder environment,” he concluded.
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Individuals: 13.15M BTC
ETFs & Funds: 1.6M BTC
Companies: 1.17M BTC
Governments: 647K BTC
