Crypto World
Stablecoin Liquidity Rises as Crypto Assets Resist Pressure From Escalating War Tensions
As geopolitical tensions rise, more users are going on-chain in search of cross-border liquidity, which is boosting stablecoin supply.
The broader financial market is under pressure due to rising tensions stemming from the ongoing Middle East crisis. However, crypto assets are pushing back and resisting the pressure.
In fact, a recent report from the Asian crypto trading firm, QCP Capital, revealed that stablecoin liquidity is rising despite equities and gold buckling under pressure. This is a sign that the crypto market is navigating the turbulence caused by heightened geopolitical tensions.
Crypto Resists Pressure From War Tensions
According to the latest QCP Market Colour report, cryptocurrencies are striking back and not letting the war get the most of their price movements in what analysts call a “late-quarter plot twist.” Both bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) are trading in the green over daily and weekly timeframes. At the time of writing, BTC was hovering above $73,550, while ETH changed hands around $2,250.
Bitcoin’s safe-haven and geopolitical-hedge narrative is resurfacing, with market volatility testing the thesis in real time. Equities, on the other hand, are testing key support levels amid heightened oil volatility and geopolitical tensions. This reflects the decoupling between crypto, equities, and gold.
It is worth noting that crypto has decoupled from gold and equities to the upside before; this happened during the early stages of the Russian-Ukrainian war in 2022. Although the implosion of the Terra-Luna ecosystem and the downfall of FTX reversed bitcoin’s upward momentum, the asset climbed from $35,000 to $48,000 within a month. Analysts say a similar pattern could play out this time, however, without the same level of systemic shock due to the industry’s maturity.
Stablecoin and Institutional Liquidity Rise
As geopolitical tensions rise, more users are going on-chain in search of cross-border liquidity and capital mobility. This is evident in the supply of USD Coin (USDC) reaching a record $81.1 billion. An increase in stablecoin supply signals the entrance of fresh liquidity into the crypto market.
Additionally, institutional liquidity is rising, with spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logging five consecutive days of inflows. BlackRock’s product alone has recorded three straight weeks of inflows totaling $1.75 billion. Bitcoin treasury firms like Michael Saylor’s Strategy are steadily increasing their BTC holdings, regardless of market conditions.
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Meanwhile, BTC faces a challenge at $74,500, as a large cluster of short liquidations sits above that level. With spot options approaching a large open interest strike by month’s end, it remains to be seen if bitcoin will amplify its rally or experience a pullback.
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The US Securities and Exchange Commission is pushing to clear up years of confusion over a key broker-dealer reporting rule that prevented certain assets from being quoted by broker-dealers on the over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The SEC Rule 15c2-11 was first adopted in 1971, aimed at reducing fraud in the penny stock market. It requires broker-dealers to maintain up-to-date public information about an issuer before it can publish over-the-counter quotes.
In 2021, the rule was reinterpreted to also include fixed-income securities (such as government or corporate bonds), which saw backlash from the market. There have also been questions about whether it applies to crypto securities.
In a statement on Monday, the SEC proposed an amendment to Rule 15c2-11 that would limit the scope of reporting requirements for over-the-counter broker-dealers to “equity securities,” reversing the interpretation from 2021.
Hester Peirce, SEC commissioner and leader of the agency’s crypto task force, also welcomed the proposal, explaining that the SEC had created years of uncertainty via an amendment under the previous leadership in 2020, which went into effect in 2021.
“By its terms, the text of Rule 15c2-11 always has applied to quotations of a ‘security.’ Market participants and other observers including me, however, understood the rule to apply only to quotations of over-the-counter (‘OTC’) equity securities,” she said, adding:
“The Commission should have granted long-term no-action relief while we assessed whether the application of the rule to the fixed income market was appropriate and then amended the rule as necessary. Instead, the Commission… granted several rounds of limited relief, sometimes for as short a period as three months… fostering uncertainty in this market.”
SEC to seek comment about application to crypto
The SEC defines an equity security as any stock, similar security or convertible security that represents an ownership interest in a company.
Related: SEC drops case against BitClout founder with prejudice
Despite the SEC’s recent proposal, there is no decision yet made on whether “equity securities” could include crypto assets. The SEC has opened a 60-day period for public comment.
“I am particularly interested in commenters’ views as to the questions about the definition of ‘equity security,’ the rule’s application to crypto assets, and the appropriate next steps with respect to the formation of an ‘expert market,’” she said.
Both the SEC and Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have been pushing hard to establish regulatory clarity for crypto in the US under the current administration.
Last week, the duo signed a memo agreeing to coordinate oversight of financial markets, including crypto. The agencies said this would put an end to decades of “regulatory turf wars” between them.
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Editor’s note: Binance just claimed a second major ATA victory in the United States, with a federal Alabama court dismissing all claims. The ruling comes within a week of a New York decision, underscoring Binance’s defense against unfounded lawsuits and its emphasis on compliance and due process. The court described the filing as a shotgun pleading, and allowed a brief window for an amended complaint. This editorial summary highlights how the case shapes regulatory discourse around crypto litigation.
Key points
- Alabama court dismissed all claims under the Anti-Terrorism Act.
- This is Binance’s second ATA victory in a week, after the New York ruling.
- The court labeled the filing a shotgun pleading and set an April 10, 2026 deadline to amend.
- Binance continues to invest in compliance infrastructure, regulatory engagement, and legal governance.
Why this matters
This matters because it demonstrates that courts are applying strict pleading standards in ATA-related crypto cases, reinforcing the importance of evidence, due process, and regulatory compliance. The rulings show Binance and its community are protected when claims lack clarity or evidence, while underscoring the need for careful legal governance as the industry grows.
What to watch next
- Amended complaint deadline is April 10, 2026.
- Potential further rulings in related ATA actions.
- Ongoing emphasis on compliance infrastructure and governance from Binance.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Binance Secures Second Major Legal Victory in U.S. Court Under Anti-Terrorism Act in Two Weeks
US Federal Court in Alabama Dismisses All Claims Against Binance in Latest Lawsuit Victory
ABU Dhabi, UAE, March 16, 2026 – Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced today that a U.S. federal court in Alabama has dismissed all claims against the company in a lawsuit alleging violations of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). This marks Binance’s second major legal victory in an ATA matter within one week, following their victory in the Southern District of New York.
A Full and Complete Legal Victory
In a detailed 19-page ruling, the Court found the plaintiffs’ complaint to be legally and factually deficient. The court’s decision to dismiss every claim across the board represents a decisive legal victory for Binance.
The judge described the filing as a “shotgun pleading.” The complaint failed to clearly specify the claims and improperly grouped all defendants together without distinguishing individual conduct or liability. The ruling also emphasized that the plaintiffs did not meet the basic pleading standard to provide a “short and plain statement” of their claims.
Following the ruling, the court granted the plaintiffs until April 10, 2026, to file an amended complaint addressing the deficiencies identified. However, the judge warned that failure to adequately address these issues would result in dismissal of the entire case.
Building on Momentum and Upholding Legal Integrity
“This decision reinforces our unwavering commitment to protecting Binance and our community from unsubstantiated and bad-faith lawsuits,” shared Eleanor Hughes, General Counsel at Binance. “Sanctions compliance and terrorism financing are serious matters of law – they require evidence, legal rigour, and due process. Courts have now examined these claims on two separate occasions and found them to be without merit. These outcomes speak for themselves. We will not tolerate attempts to misuse the legal system to target our industry, and we remain as committed as ever to transparency, security, and lawful conduct in everything we do”.
This latest decision follows closely on the heels of Binance’s comprehensive victory in New York, where the Court similarly rejected allegations that the company assisted, participated in, or conspired with terrorists. Together, these rulings reflect Binance’s strong resolve to protect its platform and community.
Binance has consistently invested in industry-leading compliance infrastructure, regulatory engagement, and legal governance. The company will continue to vigorously defend itself against any attempts to bring unfounded claims or misrepresent its operations.
About Binance
Binance is a leading global blockchain ecosystem behind the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume and registered users. Binance is trusted by more than 310 million people in 100+ countries for its industry-leading security, transparency, and unmatched portfolio of digital asset products. For more information, visit: https://www.binance.com
Editor’s note: The Metaplex Foundation and K Wave Media have signed a memorandum of understanding to advance the Gaon Project and bring K-Culture IP onchain through digital asset infrastructure. The collaboration will integrate Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio to develop new models linking globally influential content with digital assets, fan communities, and internet-native capital formation. The effort, developed from discussions at Metaplex Summit in Seoul, examines how blockchain can support issuance and management of digital assets tied to Korean entertainment—including K-pop—and how such systems could shape participation by fans, creators, and investors in the global K-Culture economy.
Key points
- MoU to integrate Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media IP to tokenize K-Culture IP onchain.
- Initiative aims to connect content with digital assets, global fan communities, and internet-native capital formation.
- Gaon Project introduced at Metaplex Summit 2026 in Korea and focuses on tokenization and asset issuance models.
- Metaplex has supported 1 billion digital assets and over $13.5 billion in transaction value; expansion to IP-backed tokens.
Why this matters
By combining Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio, the initiative could demonstrate how blockchain-enabled digital assets enable new funding sources, fan participation, and international access to capital. The effort explores onchain asset issuance, governance, and distribution models for K-pop, dramas, films, and music programs, helping to map how cultural IP can move through global liquidity networks while clarifying regulatory considerations.
“K-Culture has built some of the most influential digital communities anywhere in the world,” said Stephen Hess, founder of Metaplex.
What to watch next
- Tracking MoU collaboration and integration with K Wave Media’s IP portfolio.
- Progress updates on the Gaon Project and onchain asset issuance for K-Culture IP.
- Regulatory environment discussions and broader blockchain role in digital asset issuance.
Disclosure: The content below is a press release provided by the company/PR representative. It is published for informational purposes.
Metaplex Foundation and K Wave Media Partner to Advance Tokenization of K-Culture IP
Discussions at Metaplex Summit in Seoul highlighted growing momentum around bringing Korean entertainment and cultural content onchain
SAN FRANCISCO, March 16, 2026 (BUSINESS WIRE)— The Metaplex Foundation, a non-profit organization dedicated to building and growing Metaplex, the leading tokenization platform in the Solana ecosystem, today announced a partnership with K Wave Media, a company focused on developing and commercializing Korean entertainment and cultural intellectual property (IP), to advance the Gaon Project, an initiative designed to bring K-Culture IP onchain through digital asset infrastructure.
Under a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the organizations will collaborate on integrating Metaplex’s tokenization platform with K Wave Media’s cultural IP portfolio to develop new models linking globally influential content with digital assets, global fan communities and internet-native capital formation.
The initiative will examine how blockchain technology can support the issuance and management of digital assets tied to Korean entertainment and cultural content, including K-pop and other widely recognized K-Culture IP. These models are expected to create new opportunities for participation among fans, creators and investors across the global K-Culture economy.
“K-Culture has built some of the most influential digital communities anywhere in the world,” said Stephen Hess, founder of Metaplex. “Working with K Wave Media allows us to explore how that cultural IP can move onchain, expanding access to new funding sources through global liquidity and unlocking new methods of content distribution. As technology continues to reshape how communities form and participate online, initiatives like this highlight the growing intersection between culture and digital economies.”
The Gaon Project was introduced at Metaplex Summit 2026 in Korea, an invitation-only gathering held in Seoul on March 6 that brought together leaders from Korean financial institutions, investment firms, crypto protocols, legal organizations and media.
Discussions focused on the growing opportunity to tokenize Korean cultural IP using blockchain infrastructure, including how digital assets could create new connections between content creators, global fandoms and internet-native capital markets. Participants also exchanged perspectives on the evolving regulatory environment and the broader role of blockchain technology in digital asset issuance.
During the event, Yangtae Kim and JaeHa Lee of K Wave Media outlined how the organization is positioning itself to transform the Korean IP market by combining content pipelines with new participation models, linking digital assets, fan communities and decentralized finance (DeFi).
“Korean entertainment has become one of the most influential cultural exports in modern media,” said Jaeha Lee, Head of Content, K Wave Media. “Through the Gaon Project, we plan to bring Korean dramas, films, animation and music reality programs onchain as real-world assets, creating new pathways for how Korean content is distributed and discovered.”
To date, Metaplex has supported the creation of 1 billion digital assets and over $13.5 billion in transaction value. The Metaplex Foundation plans to continue expanding its platform to support additional digital asset categories, including IP-backed tokens and agent-native tokens, as it advances infrastructure for the onchain economy.
About Metaplex Foundation
The Metaplex Foundation is a non-profit organization dedicated to developing and growing Metaplex, a suite of onchain programs and tools that facilitate the creation, distribution, and management of digital assets using Solana and the Solana Virtual Machine (SVM). Metaplex enables platforms like metaplex.com to provide a seamless end-to-end experience for asset issuers and traders to discover, trade, and launch tokens and NFTs on Solana.
About K Wave Media
K Wave Media is an entertainment and media company focused on content investment, film and series production, K-Pop merchandise, and a Bitcoin treasury strategy. By integrating entertainment IP with digital asset infrastructure, the company is expanding its influence in the emerging real-world asset (RWA) market for Korean cultural IP.
Bitcoin extended a cautious rally at the start of the week, touching six-week highs as U.S. equities opened higher on signs of easing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran. The move came alongside firmer price action for a broad set of risk assets, yet analysts warned that the longer-term trend for Bitcoin remains downbeat, with macro and liquidity dynamics continuing to influence the market. Traders are watching for whether this is a durable shift or a temporary relief bounce that fails to establish a footing above important technical levels.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin rose to around $74,600 at Monday’s Wall Street open, aligning with a 1.5% uptick in major indices as investors digested signals of deescalation in the Iran situation.
- Oil and gold retreated from recent highs, with WTI crude briefly dipping below $100 per barrel and gold testing the $5,000 level, a move seen as a return to more conventional risk-off hedges as tensions eased.
- Analysts highlighted that the relief bounce is fragile; a sustained breakout would need to contend with the broader trend, which remains pressured by macro headwinds and caution around liquidity.
- Market commentary framed Bitcoin as competing with traditional safe-havens during periods of geopolitical stress, a narrative that could gain traction if volatility persists.
- Some traders flagged potential technical triggers, including a CME Group futures gap and the importance of trend-line support, as markets weigh whether the rally can hold.
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. The price action shows a cautious uptick but fails to confirm a durable trend reversal.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. While the intraday moves look constructive, the overall setup remains conflicted, with macro factors and risk sentiment likely to dictate the near-term path.
Market context: The week opened with risk assets under a mixed macro backdrop, as de-escalation signals in geopolitical tensions tempered some speculative theta, aiding a risk-on impulse in equities while leaving crypto charts tethered to potential further volatility.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s brief ascent to the six-week high territory underscores a resumed correlation with traditional markets under certain macro conditions, particularly when headlines point toward easing tensions or softer geopolitical risk. While the price crest near $74,600 signals renewed interest, the broader market narrative remains uncertain. The juxtaposition of crypto’s potential as a geopolitical hedge against the continued drag of macro headwinds raises questions about whether the asset class can sustain upside in a liquidity environment that has shown cyclical sensitivity to headlines.
Early-week moves also highlight the evolving discourse on crypto’s role in macro portfolios. Analysts from QCP Capital suggested the possibility of Bitcoin acting as a digital safe haven or geopolitical hedge during periods of instability, noting that price action has sometimes tested that narrative in real time. The notion of crypto as an alternative to gold in risk-off periods is not new, but it appears to be resurfacing in markets where traditional hedges still carry significant risk premia. This re-emergence could influence trader psychology, especially if correlations with equities and precious metals spike again during bouts of volatility.
On the technical front, traders emphasized that the relief bounce needs to prove durable. After reclaiming some key trend lines, Bitcoin and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) were watched against broader asset classes for signs of sustainability. The commentary suggested that a longer-lived advance would require a shift in risk appetite and a break above critical resistance, not merely a one-off move driven by temporary headlines. For now, the market remains cautious, with many players hedging around what could become a larger pivot in macro sentiment rather than a straightforward risk-on impulse.
What to watch next
- Price action around the $74,000–$75,000 zone and whether Bitcoin can sustain a break above recent inertia, or if price returns to tested support levels.
- The CME Group Bitcoin futures gap near $71,500 and whether price revisits that area, potentially shaping a fresh reversal or consolidation zone.
- any renewed headlines on Middle East tensions and their impact on oil, gold, and broader risk sentiment, including the potential for renewed volatility in the Strait of Hormuz.
- ongoing commentary from traders like Jelle on longer-term BTC cycles and the likelihood of a continued bear market versus a structural shift in market dynamics.
- persistent discussions around Bitcoin’s narrative as a digital hedge, particularly if macro stress signals intensify again or if liquidity conditions tighten ahead of economic data releases.
Sources & verification
- QCP Market Color analysis discussing Bitcoin’s narrative as a potential digital hedge and the risk-on/risk-off dynamics observed in the market.
- BTC price data and chart references from TradingView (BTCUSD) cited in market commentary and chart captions.
- Trader commentary on price action around the CME Bitcoin futures gap near $71,500 (as discussed by Daan Crypto Trades on X).
- Analyst notes from Jelle on X regarding bear market cycles and potential lower-price scenarios.
- Public posts and discussions referencing geopolitical developments, including coverage of Hormuz tensions and de-escalation signals.
Market reaction and key details
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) advanced to the upper band of its recent range as Wall Street opened on a cautiously optimistic note. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap rose toward $74,600, coinciding with a roughly 1.5% uptick in major equity indices. The macro backdrop showed oil slipping below the $100 per barrel threshold and gold pulling back from peak levels, approaching key moving-average support as investors priced in slower-than-expected geopolitical risk. The juxtaposition of crypto strength against steadier asset classes underscores a watershed moment for traders evaluating whether this is a durable shift or a transient relief rally.
Analysts at QCP Capital framed the move as part of a broader narrative in which Bitcoin and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) are being tested by traditional risk signals. They noted that BTC and ETH managed to push above critical round-number benchmarks, but the broader risk-off tilt persisted in equities and precious metals, tempering the vigor of a potential sustainable breakout. One line from the analysis captured the tension: “If this pattern persists, it would be a late-quarter plot twist, given crypto’s underdog status and its familiar habit of correlating with traditional assets mostly on the way down.”
The discussion around Bitcoin as a possible digital safe haven resurfaced amid softer geopolitical headlines, with market participants considering whether BTC could serve as a hedge during periods of uncertainty. While that narrative has been tested before, the current price action provides a fresh data point for those arguing that crypto may offer diversification benefits when traditional hedges come under pressure. Still, a majority of traders cautioned that the relief bounce is unlikely to rewrite the longer-term technical picture without sustained demand and a clear breakout above key resistance zones.
From a sentiment standpoint, some market voices urged patience. A number of traders highlighted that the latest rally might represent a higher low rather than a robust reversal, signaling the potential for a renewed move lower if conditions deteriorate or if macro liquidity tightens again. The conversation in social feeds—ranging from market commentators on X to posts referencing CME data—emphasized that the market’s next move would hinge on the ability of buyers to absorb any renewed volatility stemming from macro headlines or shifts in risk sentiment. In addition to technical considerations, the unfolding narrative around the Strait of Hormuz continued to influence the energy complex and, by extension, the risk-on/risk-off calculus for investors across asset classes.
Charts comparing BTC against gold and other assets illustrated a recurring theme: Bitcoin’s price action remained tightly bound to broad market cycles, with the 50-day moving average for gold providing a rough guidepost for risk appetite. The visual relationships underscored the ongoing debate about Bitcoin’s role in diversified portfolios during periods of geopolitical risk and macro uncertainty. As traders weigh the probability of further volatility, the question remains whether this week’s price action marks the start of a sustained re-valuation or a temporary pause within a longer-downtrend framework.
Key figures and next steps
In the near term, market participants will be attentive to whether BTC can maintain momentum beyond the $74k handle and whether the next weekly candle closes above critical technical thresholds. The possibility of a retracement back toward the CME-futures-defined area around $71,500 could provide a fresh pivot point for risk controls and short-term trading strategies. The interplay between oil, gold, and crypto will continue to shape risk sentiment, especially if geopolitical headlines shift again or if macro data surprises alter the liquidity outlook.
Detailed verification notes
The material reflects market commentary and data points reported during the week’s opening session, including: crypto price action near $74,600; the role of QCP Market Color in framing Bitcoin’s narrative; the presence of a CME gap around $71,500 as observed by CME-related traders; and social-media commentary from traders such as Jelle and Daan Crypto Trades. The embedded trading charts from TradingView provide ongoing price context for BTCUSD as markets respond to evolving macro and geopolitical signals.
A UK resident has accused his estranged wife of stealing 2,323 Bitcoin from his Trezor hardware wallet in 2023, alleging she used a security camera to capture his seed phrase and access codes.
In a court judgment by Justice Cotter, filed in the UK’s High Court of Justice last Tuesday, lawyers acting for the claimant, Ping Fai Yuen, alleged that his wife, Fun Yung Li and her sister covertly recorded him to obtain his seed phrase and transfer out $176 million in Bitcoin (BTC) to 71 different addresses.
After allegedly being tipped off by his daughter about the plot, Ping installed audio recording equipment and claims to have captured Fun discussing the theft and how to move large sums of money without attracting the attention of banks or law enforcement.
No transactions have taken place at any of the wallet addresses since Dec. 21, 2023, according to the court documents.
Ping reported the alleged theft to the police shortly after the last transfer in December. Law enforcement arrested his wife and confiscated several cold wallets and watches. She was later released on bail while police investigated.
Authorities later stated there would be no “further action pending new evidence.”
Wallets have been targeted by dusting attacks
In November last year, nearly two years after the alleged theft, Ping applied for an asset preservation injunction, asking the court to freeze all cryptocurrency associated with his wife, formally declare his ownership of the Bitcoin and either return it or award him its equivalent value in fiat currency.
He also claimed to be monitoring the Bitcoin addresses and expressed concern that they had been targeted in a crypto dusting attack.
Dusting attacks involve a bad actor sending small amounts of cryptocurrency to wallets to track activity and try to identify the owners of wallets with large holdings for follow-up phishing and other scams.
A separate incident in September 2024 allegedly involved a violent confrontation between Ping and Fun, resulting in charges against Ping of assault occasioning actual bodily harm and two counts of common assault, to which he later pleaded guilty.
Judge says the husband has a high chance of winning
Justice Cotter wrote that Ping has a high chance of prevailing, given the evidence collected since the alleged incident occurred and the fact that Fun did not provide “any alternative (or any) explanation for the movement of the Bitcoin.”
Related: US Treasury sanctions enablers of North Korea IT worker fraud ring
“In my judgment the claimant has demonstrated a very high probability of success,” Cotter wrote, adding that “The evidence is that he was warned of what the First Defendant was seeking to do, the transcripts are damning; and when the First Defendant’s property was searched, the necessary equipment to exfiltrate the Bitcoin was found.”
Cotter also noted that if the pair cannot agree on how to proceed, the court will schedule a case management hearing. He also recommended an early trial, which he described as “necessary given the security threats to, and volatility of value of, the Bitcoin.”
Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen
US President Donald Trump has again pressured the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates immediately, saying at a White House meeting that they should have a “special meeting” to reduce rates.
“What’s a better time to cut interest rates than now? A third-grade student would know that,” Trump added, according to videos shared on X.
Trump has reiterated his calls for lower rates after stating on Truth Social on Thursday that the Federal Reserve chair “should be dropping interest rates, IMMEDIATELY.”
The president argued in January that the US should have “substantially lower” rates and “the lowest in the world,” labelling Powell “too late” and claiming he is “hurting our country, and its National Security” by maintaining high interest rate levels.
Trump has advocated for lower rates to reduce the cost of servicing the massive $39 trillion US national debt and stimulate economic growth, housing, and the stock market.
Lower rates can also push investors towards higher-risk assets like stocks and crypto. Cheaper borrowing costs also fuel broader market liquidity, meaning more money flows into speculative assets.
No rate changes likely at Fed’s Wednesday meeting
The US central bank kicks off its two-day March meeting on Tuesday and is slated to announce its rate decision on Wednesday.
However, CME futures markets paint a different picture, currently indicating a 99% probability that rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% this week.
The outcome for the April 29 meeting is similar with a 97% probability of no change.
Related: Higher CPI print for March already ‘baked in’ to BTC price — Analysts
This is despite the expectation that Trump’s pick for Fed chair replacement, Kevin Warsh, who will take the helm in mid-May when Powell’s term ends, may be more open to cutting rates.
The war with Iran has also caused a surge in oil prices, which means higher fuel costs and is likely to push up food and other goods prices via higher transport costs, leading to higher inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to raise rates.
The current rate of inflation in the US remained steady at 2.4% in February, but it is expected to rise in March, according to Trading Economics.
Fed will play the waiting game
With the US-Iran conflict’s impact on rising oil prices, “traders have already priced in the likelihood of zero cuts this year,” Jeff Mei, chief operations officer at the BTSE exchange, told Cointelegraph.
This should mean that there will be “less downward pressure on crypto asset prices,” because oil’s impact on inflation is “unclear at this point,” and the Fed will likely “continue to wait out the situation.”
Magazine: Metaplanet’s Japan Bitcoin bet, Bithumb ordered suspension: Asia Express
Polymarket has taken action after identifying users who allegedly pressured an Israeli journalist to alter coverage of an Iranian missile strike that became the subject of a high-stakes prediction market. Emanuel Fabian, the military correspondent for The Times of Israel, said he began receiving messages urging him to rewrite his March 10 report about a missile that landed near Beit Shemesh. The market around Iran’s strike had drawn significant attention, with more than $17 million wagered on whether the event would occur on that date. In response to the harassment, Polymarket said it banned the involved accounts and would forward information to authorities as part of its enforcement of the platform’s Terms of Service.
Key takeaways
- Polymarket publicly banned accounts tied to attempts to influence editorial coverage of a war-related event.
- The Beit Shemesh incident sparked discussion about the alignment of journalism, prediction markets, and user incentives, given the roughly $17 million at stake on the March 10 date.
- Journalists reported receiving death threats and coercive messages aimed at changing coverage, leading to police involvement in the investigation.
- Experts and lawmakers have warned that open war and political markets can create incentives for insider manipulation or abuse, adding regulatory scrutiny to the sector.
- Interference allegations surfaced as market participants debated the event’s outcome and how market rules defined a valid strike versus an intercepted one.
Market context: Prediction markets around geopolitical events have surged in activity, attracting capital and attention but also drawing scrutiny from lawmakers who caution that such markets can incentivize manipulation or insider trading. The episode underscores ongoing debates about regulation, accountability, and the safeguards needed to protect both journalists and participants while preserving the informational value of these markets.
Why it matters
The episode sits at the intersection of journalism, technology platforms, and financial markets that attempt to forecast real-world events. It highlights the vulnerabilities reporters face when their work intersects with open, global betting markets. Polymarket’s swift action—banning accounts implicated in intimidation and promising to share data with authorities—signals an(self) effort to deter harassment while maintaining a level of accountability for participants who attempt to shape coverage for personal gain. The incident also raises practical questions for platform design: how to verify events, resolve disputes when official narratives diverge, and deter abusive behavior without stifling legitimate speculation.
From a market-design perspective, the case emphasizes how event definitions and payout rules can become contentious when the public narrative contradicts initial reports. The market in question stipulated that a “Yes” resolution would occur if Iran initiated a drone, missile, or air strike on Israeli soil on the listed date, with exceptions for missiles or drones that were intercepted. Such clauses matter greatly as information evolves and as authorities confirm or dispute particular details. The controversy illustrates the delicate balance between price discovery and the integrity of editorial content, especially in fast-moving conflicts where new information can quickly alter the perceived probability of an outcome.
Regulatory and legislative attention surrounding prediction markets has grown in recent years. Critics argue that a widely followed war-related market can create incentives for insiders to profit from confidential or strategic information, potentially harming the market’s integrity. Lawmakers have proposed or introduced measures aimed at increasing oversight and reducing opportunities for manipulation. In this environment, Polymarket’s actions—such as banning participants and cooperating with authorities—are part of a broader push to establish guardrails while preserving the utility of open, decentralized forecast platforms.
The Israel-Beit Shemesh episode also reinforces how journalism and real-time events can interact with online betting ecosystems. A journalist’s safety can become a concern when gigabytes of data and real-time bets converge with heated debates over national security. In this case, Fabian reported receiving messages in Hebrew from an individual who threatened harm should he alter the article, a reminder that the digital amplification of conflict can translate into tangible risks for reporters. The police investigation underscores that, beyond market mechanics, these threats are taken seriously by authorities and investigated through formal channels.
As the discourse evolves, platforms like Polymarket are likely to face ongoing scrutiny over how they moderate content, enforce terms of service, and guard against attempts to influence public reporting. The balance between encouraging open discourse and protecting participants—and journalists—from coercion is delicate, and the incident adds to a growing discourse on how best to govern and supervise prediction markets without dampening their potential for information discovery.
What to watch next
- Updates from police on the investigation into the threats against Emanuel Fabian and any legal actions taken.
- Polymarket’s next steps regarding moderation policies, account bans, or changes to event-market rules following the incident.
- New information about the Iran–Israel market’s March 10 resolution and how different outlets corroborate the event outcome.
- Regulatory developments or proposed legislation targeting prediction markets and their handling of geopolitical bets.
Sources & verification
- Times of Israel report by Emanuel Fabian detailing threats and pressure to alter coverage of the March 10 incident.
- Polymarket event page for the Iran strikes Israel on market.
- Polymarket statement condemning harassment posted on X.
- Emanuel Fabian’s tweet from March 10, 2026 embedded in the coverage.
- Times of Israel update confirming the missile outside Beit Shemesh was not intercepted, as reported by Fabian.
- Cointelegraph coverage on related Polymarket trades and arrests.
Beit Shemesh episode and the stakes for prediction markets
The Beit Shemesh incident centers on a clash between the ambition of market-based forecasting and the realities of reporting on armed conflict. Polymarket’s market on Iran’s strike attracted substantial capital, illustrating how participants extrapolate geopolitical risk into financial bets. The protracted tension between a journalist’s independence and the expectations of a global betting audience became palpable as individuals on social media and messaging channels urged Fabian to change the narrative to favor a particular market outcome. The prompt action by Polymarket—to ban the involved accounts and cooperate with authorities—highlights a broader effort by platform operators to deter abuse and maintain trust in the reliability of the market data they produce.
Meanwhile, the evolving official narrative around March 10’s events adds another layer of complexity. Early investor sentiment and public commentary can diverge from later assessments of what occurred, such as whether missiles were intercepted or landed as described. The distinction matters for the market’s payout logic, and it also raises questions about how platforms should handle disputed or evolving information. As authorities continue to investigate and as more details become available, the episode will likely inform ongoing debates about the governance of prediction markets and their role in risk pricing during geopolitical crises.
Beyond the mechanics, the episode underscores the need for robust protections for journalists who operate under the glare of online betting communities. It also spotlights the responsibilities of market operators to police conduct and to implement clear, enforceable policies that safeguard editorial integrity while preserving a platform’s openness. The path forward will likely involve refinements to event definitions, stronger identity and abuse prevention measures, and transparent reporting on enforcement actions—elements that can help sustain the usefulness of prediction markets without compromising safety or ethics.
The broader conversation about how to balance free inquiry, market liquidity, and the well-being of reporters is far from settled. As prediction markets mature, observers will watch not only for accurate price signals but also for how platforms handle threats, disputes, and regulatory expectations. The Beit Shemesh incident thus stands as a case study in the intersection of journalism, technology-enabled forecasting, and the high-stakes world of geopolitics.
Crypto World
Spark Protocol votes to reactivate WBTC collateral and expand liquidity layer: Sky Ecosystem
The Spark Foundation has proposed re-enabling WBTC as collateral on SparkLend and adding new rate limits and pools to its liquidity layer following a 1.5-year operational review.
Spark Protocol is moving to reactivate Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) collateral support on SparkLend and expand its liquidity layer infrastructure, according to a proposal published Monday. The changes include re-enabling WBTC collateral functionality, adding USDT and USDT transfer asset rate limits to Anchorage, and onboarding a Uniswap v4 USDT/USDS pool. The proposal also covers Spark Treasury grants for Q2 2026.
WBTC collateral support was disabled in late 2024 due to governance and custody concerns in the WBTC ecosystem. The asset has now operated under the updated structure for approximately 1.5 years without incident, prompting the Spark Foundation to reassess its risk profile for re-listing on the protocol.
Sources: Sky Forum – Proposed Changes to Spark | Sky Forum – WBTC Asset Review
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has dropped a multi-year case against Nader Al‑Naji, who had been accused of misleading investors and violating federal securities laws tied to the launch of the BitClout platform.
Summary
- SEC has dropped its fraud and securities case against BitClout founder Nader Al-Naji after the agency’s crypto task force reassessed the matter and moved to dismiss the litigation.
- Regulators had accused Al-Naji of raising more than $257 million through BTCLT token sales and using part of the proceeds to fund personal expenses, including a Beverly Hills mansion.
- The case was dismissed with prejudice, while the U.S. Department of Justice also ended a parallel wire fraud case tied to the BitClout project.
A joint stipulation of dismissal filed with the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York on Thursday said the SEC’s crypto task force had reassessed the matter and decided to end the litigation.
However, the filing warned that the decision should not be interpreted as a broader policy shift that would automatically extend to other crypto-related cases.
“The Commission’s decision to exercise its discretion and seek dismissal of this litigation is based on the particular facts and circumstances of this case,” the filing said.
Al-Naji, a former Google engineer and the founder of the DeSo blockchain, was first charged by the SEC in 2024, just years after launching BitClout in March 2021. Subsequently, a cease and desist order was issued against the platform.
In its complaint at the time, the SEC under former chair Gary Gensler accused Al-Naji of raising more than $257 million by selling BitClout’s native BTCLT token without properly disclosing that the proceeds could be used to pay BitClout team members.
The commission also accused Al-Naji of using funds raised from investors to finance a lavish personal lifestyle. According to the SEC, roughly $7 million of the proceeds were used to cover rent for a Beverly Hills mansion and to make cash gifts to family members.
Regulators further alleged that Al-Naji mischaracterized the inner workings of the platform by presenting BitClout as fully decentralized even though he was allegedly controlling the project behind the scenes.
Under the terms of the settlement, the case has now been dismissed with prejudice, and Al-Naji has agreed to waive any claims for reimbursement of legal fees or expenses from the SEC.
Simultaneously, the U.S. Department of Justice has also ended a parallel criminal case against Al-Naji that had accused him of wire fraud.
“After months of searching, using every method and tool at their disposal, including applying pressure to those around me, the government decided to dismiss their charges,” Al-Naji wrote in an X post.
“Perhaps the allegation that hurt the most was the government’s claim that BitClout/DeSo, the blockchain that I’ve been working on for years now, is not fully decentralized […] In the short term, I’ve got big plans for DeSo, Focus, Openfund, and HeroSwap (my team’s core products). Every single one is best in class at what it does and a potential billion dollar business on its own. Now that I’m able to operate at full capacity, free from stifling constraints, and with my reputation and network restored, I’m confident we’ll realize that potential,” he added.
Under President Donald Trump’s administration, the SEC has dropped several enforcement actions against crypto firms. At the same time, the agency’s crypto task force has said it intends to move away from regulation by enforcement and toward a more collaborative framework built around clearer rules for digital asset companies.
Earlier this month, the SEC also dropped its lawsuit against Justin Sun, which had accused the TRON founder of fraud and securities law violations.
Aave is rolling out a new protective feature called ‘Aave Shield’ after a trader lost $50 million swapping USDT for AAVE due to illiquid market conditions.
Aave announced the launch of ‘Aave Shield,’ a new protective measure, following a $50 million loss suffered by a trader during a token swap. In a post-mortem analysis, Aave clarified that the loss was caused not by slippage but by illiquid market conditions that decimated the trade’s execution price when the trader swapped USDT for AAVE tokens.
The incident occurred on March 12, 2026, when a trader attempted to exchange $50.4 million in USDT stablecoins but received only $39,000 worth of AAVE tokens, crystallizing a near-total loss. The launch of Aave Shield signals the protocol’s effort to prevent similar catastrophic trades by adding safeguards around illiquid or thin markets.
Sources: Aave
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
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