The February CPI data came in broadly as anticipated, reinforcing that higher inflation remains a factor but not a surprise driver for markets. Analysts at 21Shares argued that the macro picture had already priced in the March print, shifting attention to how the Federal Reserve would respond. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported shelter costs rose 0.2% in February, while food climbed 0.4% and energy rose 0.6%; the core measure excluding food and energy rose 0.2%. Those numbers underscore a broad, uneven inflation trajectory. In crypto markets, the Total 3 market indicator — which tracks the broader crypto capitalization outside the two largest assets by market cap — dipped about 1% from an intraday high near $722 billion as traders absorbed the data. For readers tracking the macro narrative, the CPI release keeps the Fed in sharper focus while liquidity remains a driver for risk assets across crypto landscapes. CPI release.

Key takeaways

• The February CPI print aligned with estimates, reinforcing expectations that inflation momentum remains contained but persistent enough to influence policy signaling.
• Macro data priced in, shifting attention to the Fed’s reaction function and whether policymakers will “look through” temporary shocks or tighten preemptively.
• Crypto markets showed resilience, with the broader market excluding the leading two assets dipping about 1% from an intraday peak near $722 billion.
• Near-term Bitcoin price prospects point to a range around $68,000–$74,000, with a breakout above $75,000 potentially lifting the next leg toward $77,000–$80,000.
• Market expectations for near-term policy action remain modest, with roughly 0.6% of traders pricing in a rate cut at the March 18 meeting, per CME FedWatch.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $ETH

Market context: The CPI outcome intersected with expectations about the Federal Reserve’s policy path, reinforcing a regime where macro data and liquidity conditions increasingly shape asset allocation across crypto markets. As investors parse the data, attention remains on potential ETF flows, liquidity conditions, and regulatory signals that could influence risk-on appetite in the sector.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The broader crypto environment continues to respond to macro cues while traders weigh the durability of trend reversals and the potential for regime shifts in monetary policy. The latest price action sits within a framework of cautious optimism, where a measured CPI path and any dovish pivot from the Fed could catalyze incremental risk-taking among digital-asset traders.

Why it matters

The February CPI numbers anchor expectations for the Federal Reserve’s near-term trajectory, with market participants watching for clues about whether policy will remain restrictive or begin to ease as inflation cools. The quote from Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, encapsulates the key debate: will the Fed “look through” a temporary inflation shock or tilt hawkish in anticipation of renewed price pressures? His question captures a central tension in macro markets: policymakers must balance the risk of stale data against the risk that over-tightening slows growth more than necessary. The CPI multipliers, the timing of potential rate cuts, and the path of the Fed’s balance sheet all feed directly into how risk assets, including crypto, are repriced in real time.

On the crypto side, Bitcoin and its peers have shown resilience even as macro indicators flash caution. The broader market—measured by Total 3, which excludes the two largest assets by market cap—has managed to hold a high-water mark even as the broader market cooled slightly after the CPI release. The dynamic is clear: when macro momentum remains supportive and liquidity is plentiful, infrastructure developers, traders, and hedgers position themselves for a range of outcomes. The interplay between inflation data, the Fed’s policy stance, and risk sentiment remains the dominant driver of near-term price action in digital assets, even as structural developments in the sector—such as staking, layer-2 scaling, and DeFi adoption—continue to underpin longer-term value propositions.

From a tactical perspective, the crypto narrative often hinges on price catalysts that align with macro cues. If the CPI prints continue to signal softening inflation and the Fed signals a more accommodative stance, the environment could become conducive to a slow but steady reallocation into risk assets, including crypto. Conversely, if the data surprises higher or the Fed remains steadfast in a hawkish posture, liquidity could tighten and risk appetite could wane, pressing prices lower in the near term. In this context, Bitcoin and Ethereum—each with distinct on-ramps to risk markets and different catalysts (security, scalability, staking yields, and institutional adoption)—will be watched closely as leading indicators of broader sentiment in the sector. Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) remains a focal point for investors watching network upgrades and the evolving dynamics of on-chain activity, while Bitcoin continues to serve as the benchmark for institutional sentiment toward digital assets as an entire category.

In the immediate horizon, price action for Bitcoin appears to be constrained within a corridor rather than forming a new uptrend. The market narrative suggests that a sustained break above the $75,000 mark could unlock a phase of consolidation between $75,000 and $80,000, with momentum dependent on macro signals, liquidity availability, and the pace at which policy expectations evolve. Historical patterns show that geopolitical shocks can trigger sharp but often brief rebounds in risk assets, including crypto, as investors reposition portfolios and seek hedges or uncorrelated stores of value. A potential easing cycle in 2026, if it materializes, could further accelerate any durable upside by reducing discount rates on future cash flows and encouraging risk-taking among diversified portfolios. For now, near-term traders appear to be watching for a decisive move beyond key resistance levels while staying mindful of the macro backdrop.

The market’s next phase will hinge on the March 18 FOMC decision and the accompanying dot plot. While the probability of a rate cut is currently modest, any shift in messaging toward a more permissive stance would likely be interpreted as a positive catalyst for both traditional and crypto markets. Investors should remain alert to any new inflation data and to updates in regulatory and ETF-related developments that could alter risk appetite and liquidity dynamics in this evolving space.

What to watch next

• March 18: Federal Reserve meeting outcomes and the accompanying policy statement; assess shifts in the policy stance and the dot plot.
• Bitcoin price signal: monitor whether the price sustains a break above $75,000 and whether it can push into the $77,000–$80,000 range.
• Evidence of sustained liquidity: track ETF inflows, macro liquidity conditions, and funding rates that could affect risk assets including crypto.
• Geopolitical or macro shocks: observe whether external events drive a rapid re-pricing across crypto markets and whether they catalyze follow-on rebounds.
• Regulatory and on-chain developments: continue to watch network upgrades, staking dynamics, and DeFi activity that influence long-term value propositions.

Sources & verification

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI February release and sector breakdowns (shelter, food, energy, core).
• Comments from Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, regarding the Fed reaction function and policy signaling.
• CME FedWatch tool for probability of near-term rate cuts and market expectations at the March 18 meeting.
• Price charts and intraday levels referenced via TradingView and reputable price-tracking data for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Markets digest CPI data as Fed policy looms and Bitcoin eyes a breakout

The February CPI print arrived in line with expectations, reinforcing the view that inflation momentum remains a factor but not a surprise driver for markets. In a briefing that highlighted the breadth of price pressures, shelter costs rose 0.2% in February, food increased 0.4%, and energy advanced 0.6%. The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy components, rose 0.2%. These figures, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, reflect a broad inflation path with pockets of resilience in housing and energy alongside more modest gains in some other sectors. Analysts at 21Shares noted that the print is now part of the pricing backdrop for the March data, complicating the path for policy but not delivering an outsized surprise that would upend markets. The crypto space, meanwhile, showed a measure of resilience as Total 3 — the broader market value outside the leading two assets — retraced roughly 1% from an intraday high near $722 billion, underscoring that liquidity and risk sentiment remain critical levers for digital assets in the near term. CPI release.

Market observers at 21Shares framed the data through the lens of the Fed’s reaction function. Stephen Coltman asked whether policymakers will “look through” temporary inflation shocks or tilt hawkish as a precaution, pointing to a central question as officials balance the persistence of price pressures against the evidence of cooling momentum. The answer, to many, will hinge on how the Fed interprets the trajectory of inflation and how aggressively it views the risk of a renewed uptick. The outcome will shape not just traditional asset classes but the risk appetite that propels crypto markets higher or lower in the weeks to come.

Looking at the near-term price action, Bitcoin’s path remains tethered to momentum around major psychological thresholds and resistance levels. In a scenario where the price breaks decisively above the $75,000 mark, bulls could push into a consolidation zone roughly between $75,000 and $80,000, with the potential to test the upper end of that band depending on macro cues and liquidity conditions. If, instead, the market fails to clear that resistance, the asset could consolidate in the lower to mid-$70,000s as traders await clearer signals from policymakers and the broader economy. The relevance of macro factors to crypto is a reminder that while the technology and use cases continue to evolve, the sector remains highly sensitive to the policy and liquidity backdrop that governs all risk assets.

Beyond Bitcoin, Ethereum’s ongoing developments around staking dynamics, network upgrades, and layer-2 scaling will continue to influence demand and on-chain activity. These structural factors can interact with macro signals to shape price trajectories over a longer horizon, even as the near term remains dominated by inflation data and monetary policy expectations. In sum, the CPI data reinforces a delicate balance: a still-elevated inflation backdrop paired with a potential shift in policy signaling could, if realized, unlock new phases of risk-on behavior that bolster crypto markets—provided liquidity holds and macro momentum remains supportive.

A crypto bull run could be on the horizon after President Donald Trump hinted that the ongoing Iran war will end soon, and as the Fear and Greed Index continues rising.

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose to $71,000, while Ethereum was stuck above $2,000. The market capitalization of all coins jumped to $2.41 trillion.

The main reason for the potential crypto bull run is a statement from Trump, who noted that the Iran war will likely end soon, with officials predicting two more weeks of fighting. This means that it may end at the end of this month.

He noted that the war will end as there will be nothing more left to attack. As a result, ending of this war will be bullish for Bitcoin and other altcoins because it will remove one of the main risks in the market. It will also lower the ongoing inflation concerns, which explains why crude oil prices have dropped sharply from the weekly high.

Still, the main risk is whether Iran will stop the war. Analysts believe that it is in its interest to continue fighting for longer to prevent future attacks from the US and Iran. Indeed, Iranian officials noted that they would switch to continuous attacks with the goal of pushing oil prices to $200 a barrel.

The other potential catalyst for a crypto bull run is the Fear and Greed Index has risen gradually. It has jumped from the year-to-date low of 10 to 27. If the trend continues, it will likely move to the neutral zone followed by the green area.

Historically, crypto bull runs normally start whenever the index is rising. Prices then start their bear markets whenever they move to the extreme greed zone. This view mirrors the popular quote by Warren Buffett, where he recommends buying when others are fearful and selling when others are greedy.

Revolut has received regulatory clearance to operate a fully licensed bank in the United Kingdom, launching Revolut Bank UK after approval from the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA). The bank will offer deposit accounts to individuals and businesses, with insured deposits capped at 120,000 pounds by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS). The transition for existing Revolut UK customers will be rolled out gradually over several months to integrate the new banking framework, while the fintech outlines a roadmap that includes lending and other services beyond basic accounts. In a broader push, Revolut also disclosed that it had filed for a full banking license in Peru and a federal US banking charter in January, signaling a multi-jurisdictional strategy to blend digital finance with traditional banking regulation.

Details of the PRA approval were echoed by Revolut in a post on X, linking to the announcement from the company. The step marks a notable milestone for a fintech that has built a reputation around rapid, user-friendly digital services and now seeks to operate within the safety nets and supervisory standards that govern traditional banks.

Revolut’s UK rollout is positioned as a foundational move that could unlock a broader range of services in due course. The bank will begin by offering deposit accounts to eligible customers, with the FSCS providing a safety net similar to the way insured deposits work in other jurisdictions. The gradual migration means customers can expect a phased onboarding process as Revolut builds the operational capacity to handle regulatory compliance, risk management, and capital requirements that accompany a licensed bank. While the immediate focus is deposit taking, the company has signaled that lending, payments, and other regulated activities could follow as the business scales within the safety framework of UK banking supervision.

The announcement aligns with a wider trend in which fintechs and crypto-adjacent firms are pursuing formal banking relationships or licenses to access regulated payment rails and traditional funding channels. Revolut’s move mirrors a broader strategic arc in the sector, where digital-first financial platforms are increasingly comfortable trading in a regulated environment that offers consumer protections and a defined line of accountability for capital and operations. In that context, Revolut’s UK license acts as both a proof of concept and a potential template for regional expansion, should regulatory approvals in other jurisdictions align with its product roadmap.

Beyond the UK, Revolut’s filings point to a multi-regional ambition. In January, the company disclosed it had applied for a full banking license in Peru and a federal banking charter in the United States. Peruvian licensing could open doors to cross-border remittances and local consumer banking, while a U.S. banking charter would place Revolut on a sharply regulated stage with potential access to broader U.S. payments infrastructure. Taken together, these moves illustrate how fintechs are recalibrating their growth strategies—seeking regulatory legitimacy not as a mere compliance checkbox, but as a platform for diversified financial services that can compete with incumbents on a more level playing field.

The sector’s momentum toward formal banking has also intensified discussions about the role of crypto and digital assets within regulated systems. A subset of crypto-focused firms has long argued that national bank charters could unlock direct access to the payments rails and reduce friction for on-ramps and off-ramps between crypto ecosystems and traditional finance. Notable examples cited in industry conversations include Ripple, Paxos, and Circle, all of which have pursued or explored regulatory designations that would position crypto-related activities within the broader banking ecosystem. In March, Kraken—one of the largest crypto exchanges—was granted a limited-purpose master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, marking a historic step toward direct Fed access for crypto entities, albeit with clear constraints designed to preserve safety and supervision of the payments system.

The broader regulatory environment remains dynamic. A banking trade association in the United States has reportedly considered legal action against the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to block crypto firms from acquiring bank charters, highlighting the friction between innovation and traditional banking controls. At the same time, bankers and lobbyists have pushed back against yield-bearing stablecoins and other crypto-enabled services that could shift market share away from established lenders. The tension between encouraging financial innovation and maintaining systemic safeguards continues to shape policy, litigation, and strategic partnerships across the fintech and crypto sectors.

From a market perspective, these developments come amid ongoing debates about how to balance consumer protection, financial stability, and competitive innovation. While Revolut’s UK launch demonstrates growing appetite for regulated, tech-enabled banking, the path forward will likely hinge on how regulators interpret cross-border licensing, consumer protections, and the interplay between digital assets and traditional financial rails. The next 12 to 24 months could see a flurry of licensing activity, updated supervisory frameworks, and more structured collaborations between fintechs, crypto firms, and conventional banks as the financial system absorbs rapidly evolving digital capabilities.

In parallel, the industry’s push toward deeper integration with the formal banking system underscores a broader shift in which digital-first firms are increasingly treated as participants in traditional finance rather than isolated disruptors. That shift is fueling a dual dynamic: a demand for robust regulatory compliance to gain legitimacy and, at the same time, a push to innovate on product design and customer experience within those regulatory boundaries. Revolut’s UK bank launch is a concrete manifestation of this trend, signaling that the boundary between fintech and conventional banking is continuing to blur in a carefully managed, policy-driven manner.

Key takeaways

• Revolut Bank UK begins operations after PRA approval, offering deposit accounts with FSCS protection up to 120,000 pounds per depositor.
• Existing Revolut UK customers will be transitioned gradually to the new bank accounts over several months, with lending among the future service expansions.
• Revolut has pursued cross-border licensing, filing for a full Peruvian banking license and a US federal banking charter in January.
• The crypto industry continues to seek bank charters to access traditional payment rails, while regulators and bankers push back on risk and market disruption.
• Kraken secured a limited-purpose master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in March, marking a milestone for crypto access to the Fed system, albeit within defined limits.
• Regulatory debates around stablecoins and crypto banking remain a central battleground for incumbents and fintechs alike.

Sentiment: Neutral

Market context: The move illustrates a broader trend of fintechs seeking regulated banking status to access payments rails and expand product offerings, while regulators balance innovation with consumer protection and systemic resilience.

Why it matters

For consumers and businesses, Revolut Bank UK unlocks insured banking through a familiar digital platform, potentially simplifying tasks such as savings, payments, and lending within a single ecosystem. The FSCS protection up to 120,000 pounds provides a safety net that investors and everyday users expect from a licensed bank, enhancing trust as customers migrate from non-bank services to regulated accounts.

From a broader industry perspective, the move signals a continued convergence between fintechs, crypto-adjacent firms, and traditional banking. By pursuing regulated status, fintechs aim to secure greater access to payments infrastructure, risk controls, and capital markets channels—without surrendering the speed and user-centric design that define their brands. Yet the path is not without risk: industry advocates must navigate a complicated regulatory landscape and potential pushback from lenders wary of new entrants encroaching on the core of conventional banking. The Kraken development and the OCC-related discussions underscore how policy, liquidity access, and the stability of the payments system remain central to any expansion of crypto and fintech activities into licensed banking territory.

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What to watch next

• Timeline for Revolut Bank UK’s onboarding of existing customers and the rollout of new lending products.
• Progress and outcomes of Revolut’s Peru banking license application and the US federal charter filing made in January.
• Regulatory responses to crypto firms pursuing bank charters, including any developments from the OCC or related lawsuits.
• Further updates on crypto firms’ access to Fed-like payment rails, including any new master accounts or adjusted eligibility criteria.

Sources & verification

• Revolut’s official announcement confirming Revolut Bank UK and FSCS-deposits coverage of up to 120,000 pounds.
• PRA regulatory approval documentation for Revolut Bank UK.
• Revolut’s disclosures about Peru and the US banking charter filing in January.
• Kraken’s master account with the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and related coverage of Fed access for crypto firms.
• Public industry discussions regarding crypto banking, OCC actions, and debates on stablecoins and traditional banking disruption.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Ledger said on Wednesday, March 11, that it has discovered a vulnerability that could affect as much as 25% of Android phones, letting hackers steal users’ private keys, according to a press release shared with The Defiant.

The hardware wallet company’s in-house white-hat security team, the Donjon, has disclosed a critical vulnerability in Android smartphones powered by MediaTek chips that allows an attacker to extract user data — including wallet seed phrases and PINs — in under a minute, even when the phone is off.

In a proof-of-concept test, the Donjon plugged a Nothing CMF Phone 1 into a laptop and, within 45 seconds, was able to recover the device’s PIN, decrypt its storage, and extract seed phrases from six major crypto wallet apps: Trust Wallet, Base, Kraken Wallet, Rabby, tangem, and Phantom.

Before the operating system of the MediaTek-powered Android device even loads, Ledger’s security team found that an attacker can connect over USB and steal the root cryptographic keys that ensure the phone’s full-disk encryption, per the release. The phone’s data can than be fully decrypted offline.

The vulnerability could affects phones using Trustonic’s Trusted Execution Environment (TEE), the release said, including the Solana Seeker phone.

“Smartphones were never designed to be vaults,” said Charles Guillemet, Ledger’s CTO, adding:

“If your crypto sits on a phone, it’s only as safe as the weakest link in that phone’s hardware, firmware, or software.”

Following the standard 90-day responsible disclosure process, Ledger said it reported the flaw to both MediaTek and Trustonic. MediaTek confirmed it delivered a fix to affected original equipment manufacturers in January.

Ledger advised users of potentially affected Androids to install the latest security updates immediately.

The news comes crypto-related theft has been on the rise. As The Defiant reported, 2025 was a record year for crypto crime, with North Korea alone stealing roughly $2 billion — including the $1.5 billion Bybit hack, the largest hack on record.

But the threat isn’t limited to centralized exchanges. In December, Trust Wallet confirmed $7 million was stolen via a malicious Chrome extension update that harvested seed phrases directly from users’ browsers. Hackers have also reportedly been increasingly using AI tools and phishing-as-a-service infrastructure to increase the number of attacks.

This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.

Mastercard has launched a global crypto partner program that initially brings together more than 85 companies across the digital asset and payments industries to collaborate on blockchain-based payment and settlement systems.

The initiative is designed to connect crypto companies, financial institutions and payments providers as digital assets begin playing a larger role in cross-border transfers, payouts and other financial services.

Participants include crypto exchanges, blockchain networks and infrastructure providers including Binance, Circle, Gemini, Paxos, Ripple, PayPal, Polygon, Solana, Crypto.com, MoonPay, Fireblocks and the Canton Network.

They will work with Mastercard on products that integrate blockchain-based systems with existing payment infrastructure. According to the announcement, the program will focus on use cases such as cross-border money movement, settlements and commercial payments.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Mastercard said “digital assets are entering a new phase,” with technologies that once operated alongside traditional finance increasingly being applied to practical uses such as cross-border remittances and business-to-business payments.

Mastercard said the initiative builds on its existing work in digital assets, including partnerships with crypto companies, programs supporting blockchain startups and crypto-linked payment cards.

Related: Mastercard, MetaMask launch US crypto card, debuting in New York

Visa and Mastercard deepen embrace of digital assets

Mastercard’s new partner program comes as major payments networks deepen their embrace of digital assets. Both Mastercard and Visa have launched initiatives in recent years aimed at integrating blockchain technology and stablecoins with traditional payment infrastructure.

In September, Visa announced a pilot that allows banks to pre-fund cross-border payments with stablecoins through its Visa Direct platform, enabling near-instant payouts.

About a month later, the company said it would expand its crypto services to support four additional stablecoins across four blockchains, in addition to stablecoins it already supports on networks including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Stellar (XLM) and Avalanche (AVAX).