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Crypto World

Stanford Study Examines Manipulation in Polymarket Bitcoin Contracts

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Stanford Study Examines Manipulation in Polymarket Bitcoin Contracts

Researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University found that Polymarket’s five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets create incentives for traders to manipulate spot prices around settlement, allowing sophisticated participants to profit at the expense of retail traders.

The study examined contracts in which traders bet on whether Bitcoin’s price would end above or below a predetermined level after five minutes. Because the contracts settle using Chainlink price feeds based on Bitcoin’s price at the end of each trading window, traders have an incentive to influence the spot market immediately before settlement.

Analyzing trading activity before and after Polymarket introduced the contracts in July 2024, the researchers found sharp increases in Bitcoin spot-market order flow just before settlement, followed by rapid price reversals, which were consistent with settlement-price manipulation.

The study estimated that the behavior transferred about $1.28 million from ordinary traders to manipulators during the sample period. The researchers said extending contract durations from five minutes to 15 minutes largely eliminated the effect.

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Related: SOL rallies as Solana memecoins, prediction market activity surge: Are bulls back?

The researchers said the results do not indicate prediction markets are inherently vulnerable to manipulation, arguing instead that settlement design can reduce the risk. They pointed to longer settlement windows and alternative pricing methods, such as time-weighted average prices, as potential solutions.

The findings could extend beyond crypto. The paper notes that traditional exchanges, including Nasdaq and Cboe, have proposed event contracts tied to asset prices, making contract design an increasingly important consideration as prediction markets expand into regulated financial markets. 

World Cup fuels prediction market growth

Prediction markets posted record trading volumes in June as the expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup fueled activity across the sector. According to DefiLlama data, Kalshi processed about $9.4 billion in trading volume during the month, while Polymarket International handled roughly $4.3 billion.

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The platforms’ World Cup winner markets have since generated more than $5.4 billion in combined trading volume, with Polymarket processing about $4.25 billion and Kalshi about $1.2 billion, according to data from the two platforms at the time of writing.

World Cup winner bets on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

The sector’s growth has coincided with mounting legal scrutiny. Several US states have challenged companies, including Kalshi and Polymarket, this year, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has argued that federally regulated event contracts fall under its “exclusive jurisdiction” rather than state gambling laws.

The dispute is now moving through the federal courts, and legal observers have said conflicting appellate rulings could eventually prompt the US Supreme Court to decide whether states or the CFTC have primary authority over prediction markets.

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Here’s why Pi Network price rallied 20% today

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Pi Network 4-hour chart showing a 20% rebound from the $0.07 support area, with price testing the 20-period SMA as a bullish MACD crossover signals improving short-term momentum.

Pi Network price has climbed nearly 20% to around $0.086 on July 15 after an oversold rebound, with improving U.S. inflation data and renewed buying interest combined to lift the token from fresh record lows.

Summary

  • Pi Network price surged nearly 20% after an oversold rebound and softer U.S. inflation data boosted crypto sentiment.
  • A bullish MACD crossover and higher trading volume supported the recovery, though PI remains below key moving averages.
  • Heavy July token unlocks continue to pressure the market despite new Pi2Day products and ecosystem upgrades.

According to data from crypto.news, Pi Network (PI) rebounded from the $0.070-$0.072 area before reaching an intraday high near $0.086, while the latest U.S. inflation figures helped fuel a relief rally across the cryptocurrency market.

The move followed several weeks of relentless selling that had erased roughly 40% of the token’s value and pushed momentum indicators into deeply oversold territory, encouraging bargain hunters and short-term traders to step back into the market.

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Oversold conditions and macro relief have supported the rebound

The recovery gained traction after Pi’s daily Relative Strength Index dropped to around 15, a level that typically signals exhausted selling pressure.

At the same time, softer-than-expected U.S. consumer price data improved sentiment across digital assets, drawing fresh liquidity into high-risk cryptocurrencies that had suffered some of the steepest declines during the recent market correction.

Trading activity also accelerated during the rally, with daily volume climbing above $27 million as speculative buyers returned. On the 4-hour chart, Pi has also produced a bullish MACD crossover, while the histogram has turned positive for the first time in days, suggesting bearish momentum has weakened in the short term.

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Pi Network 4-hour chart showing a 20% rebound from the $0.07 support area, with price testing the 20-period SMA as a bullish MACD crossover signals improving short-term momentum.
Pi Network price 4-hour chart — July 15 | Source: crypto.news

Even so, the technical picture has yet to fully recover. TradingView data shows PI remains below all of its key moving averages, including the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period simple moving averages, leaving the prevailing downtrend intact despite the latest bounce.

The token briefly reclaimed its 20-period moving average near $0.084 before encountering resistance, indicating buyers still face selling pressure as price attempts to recover.

From a price structure perspective, the recent rebound has helped establish the $0.070 area as an important short-term support zone. However, stronger resistance now sits near the 50-period moving average around $0.094, followed by approximately $0.105 and $0.118, levels that would need to be reclaimed before the market could begin reversing the broader bearish trend.

Heavy token unlocks continue to weigh on sentiment

While macro conditions helped spark today’s rally, the factors behind Pi’s prolonged decline remain largely unchanged. Throughout July, the network has been absorbing substantial scheduled token unlocks, with roughly 103.7 million to 127 million PI entering circulation. The steady increase in available supply has repeatedly outpaced organic demand, contributing to sharp breaks below the $0.12 and $0.10 support levels.

At the same time, capital has continued flowing toward artificial intelligence-related equities in the United States and East Asia, reducing investor appetite for smaller, thinly traded crypto assets such as Pi. The combination of expanding token supply and weaker speculative demand has kept sustained buying pressure limited despite occasional relief rallies.

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Developers have nevertheless continued introducing new products intended to strengthen long-term utility within the ecosystem. Recent Pi2Day releases added decentralized application hosting, developer software development kits, and an automated Know Your Customer verification service that requires payments in PI.

Alongside those launches, ongoing core upgrades based on newer versions of the Stellar protocol and continued community speculation surrounding potential listings on major exchanges such as Kraken remain among the key narratives that supporters believe could improve demand over time, although no such exchange listing has been officially confirmed.

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SBI taps Solana for world’s first tokenized Japan equity fund

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South Korea’s Toss Bank tests Solana rails for global payments

SBI Global Asset Management has launched the world’s first tokenized Japanese equity fund on the Solana blockchain through a partnership with DigiFT, bringing a high-dividend equity strategy on-chain for institutional and accredited investors.

Summary

  • SBI and DigiFT have launched the world’s first tokenized Japanese equity fund on Solana.
  • The JX token offers accredited and institutional investors on-chain access to a high-dividend Japan equity strategy.
  • SBI is expanding its blockchain business alongside Ripple partnerships and its upcoming 3% JPYSC stablecoin lending product.

According to an announcement shared by SBI Global Asset Management on July 15, the company has introduced the SBI Japan High Dividend Equity Strategy Token (JX token) in collaboration with DigiFT, a regulated real-world asset exchange.

The token gives accredited and institutional investors blockchain-based access to a Japanese high-dividend equity strategy managed by SBI Asset Management Co. The launch is also DigiFT’s first on-chain tokenization of a Japanese equity fund.

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Solana powers SBI’s latest tokenized investment product

Built on the Solana blockchain through DigiFT’s tokenization infrastructure, the JX token expands SBI’s digital asset offerings beyond stablecoins and payments.

According to DigiFT, the product combines traditional Japanese equities with blockchain-based ownership while allowing investors to access institutional-grade assets on-chain.

Commenting on the launch, DigiFT founder Henry Zhang said the company has focused on bringing institutional assets onto blockchain infrastructure that investors and asset managers can trust.

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“Our mission at DigiFT has always been to bring real, institutional-grade assets on-chain through infrastructure that investors and asset managers can actually trust. JX extends that mission to Japan for the first time.”

The platform also supports settlements in USDC, while DigiFT said integration with a Japanese yen stablecoin is planned for a later stage. According to the company, token holders will also be able to use the asset in decentralized finance applications, including lending and asset management protocols such as Morpho.

The rollout comes as interest in tokenized real-world assets continues to grow across financial markets, with asset managers increasingly exploring blockchain-based distribution for traditional investment products.

Ripple partnership continues alongside multi-chain expansion

Although SBI Holdings has worked closely with Ripple since 2016 through initiatives including SBI Ripple Asia and more recent collaborations around the RLUSD stablecoin, the new equity fund has been launched on Solana because DigiFT’s tokenization platform is built on that network.

The move adds another blockchain to SBI’s digital asset strategy rather than replacing its existing relationship with Ripple. SBI and Ripple continue to work together on expanding XRP and XRP Ledger adoption across Japan.

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Most recently, the companies partnered with Doppler to encourage institutional use of XRP in the country. Earlier, SBI also selected Ripple to support RLUSD stablecoin distribution in Japan as part of its multi-stablecoin strategy.

SBI has simultaneously been expanding its yen-backed stablecoin business. As previously reported by crypto.news, the financial group is preparing to introduce a lending product offering a fixed 3% annual yield on its JPYSC stablecoin through SBI VC Trade. The service, which could launch as early as this month, is expected to require users to lock their JPYSC holdings for three months.

The planned lending product follows the release of JPYSC, Japan’s first trust bank-backed yen stablecoin issued by SBI Shinsei Trust Bank. SBI previously said the stablecoin was designed to reduce transaction costs, support large-value transfers, and serve both retail and institutional users, complementing the company’s growing portfolio of blockchain-based financial products.

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SpaceX Stock Nears All-Time Low, but This Pattern Points to $158

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SpaceX Stock Nears All-Time Low, but This Pattern Points to $158

SpaceX stock traded near $137 in Wednesday’s premarket, just above the $135 IPO price and Tuesday’s record low of $135.52. Still, a falling wedge on the hourly chart suggests a rebound to $158 may be forming.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) has fallen almost 40% since its June 16 peak of $225.64. Thursday’s Starship Flight 13 launch could decide whether the pattern plays out.

SpaceX Stock Loses Two Key Support Zones in Four-Week Slide

The daily chart shows three consecutive red sessions, with SPCX closing at $136.08 on Tuesday, down 2.20%. The decline from the June 16 peak now measures $89.60, or 39.69%.

Sellers broke the $168 to $171 support zone in mid-June. A rejection near that area on July 1 confirmed it as resistance. The $149 to $153 zone followed, giving way on July 8 and capping a brief retest days later.

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SPCX daily chart / Source: Tradingview

Meanwhile, fundamental pressure keeps building. The first lock-up tranche of 20% releases around Q2 earnings in late July. A bonus 10% tranche required closes above $175.50, a condition the slide has made nearly impossible.

SpaceX also priced a $25 billion inaugural bond issuance in June, with coupons between 5.35% and 6.65%. The added supply deepened a correction that has already cut over $500 billion from Elon Musk’s fortune.

Falling Wedge and RSI Divergence Offer Bulls a Lifeline

The hourly chart complicates the bearish picture. Since the July 1 rejection near $176, SPCX has compressed inside a falling wedge, a pattern that often resolves upward.

The measured target sits at $157.89, roughly 15% above the current price. However, the projection only activates if buyers reclaim the $149 to $153 zone, which now acts as resistance.

Momentum adds weight to the setup. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a higher low on July 14 while the price set a lower low. This marks the first bullish divergence since the correction began.

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SPCX hourly chart
SPCX hourly chart / Source: Tradingview

Analysts see value near these levels, too. Evercore ISI initiated coverage on Tuesday with an Outperform rating and a $230 target, close to the $236 broker consensus.

“We don’t think there’s a debate that this is an extraordinary company on a real path to reshaping the future of humanity.”

SPCX Price Prediction Depends on Starship Flight 13

Thursday’s Starship Flight 13 stands as the first major test of the rebound case. The rocket will carry 20 functional Starlink V3 satellites for the first time. That batch adds 60 terabits per second of capacity, over 20 times a single Falcon 9 load, according to SpaceNews.

A clean mission could trigger the wedge breakout and support Musk’s long-term valuation claims. In contrast, a failure risks a close below the $135 IPO price, which would push SPCX into price discovery with no chart support below.

Retail demand for SPCX exposure also remains visible on-chain. Tokenized SpaceX products on Solana (SOL), led by Backpack’s token with over 10,000 holders, fed the $5.77 billion in tokenized stock volume the network processed in Q2.

For now, SPCX sits between a bullish pattern pointing to $158 and an IPO floor the bulls cannot afford to lose.

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The post SpaceX Stock Nears All-Time Low, but This Pattern Points to $158 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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ARK Buys 725K Circle Shares in July Despite Sell-Off

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ARK Buys 725K Circle Shares in July Despite Sell-Off

Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is doubling down on its bet on USDC issuer Circle even as the company’s stock remains under pressure.

ARK bought another 220,000 shares of Circle Internet Group (CRCL) across three of its actively managed exchange-traded funds on Tuesday, according to the company’s daily trade disclosure reviewed by Cointelegraph.

Based on Circle’s Tuesday closing price of $63.22 on the New York Stock Exchange, ARK’s latest purchase was worth about $13.9 million.

Circle shares were down about 22% year-to-date and roughly 76% below their post-initial public offering (IPO) peak.

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ARK discloses 725,000 Circle shares in July purchases

ARK’s latest buy brought its disclosed July acquisitions of Circle shares to 725,517, following previous buys of 287,609 shares on July 1 and 217,896 shares on July 9.

The latest trade disclosures show ARK has consistently added to its Circle position across its flagship funds despite the stock’s prolonged decline, underscoring the investment manager’s conviction in the USDC issuer.

Source: ARK Invest

As of Wednesday, Circle accounted for 4.37% of the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF), making it the fund’s seventh-largest holding. ARKF’s Circle position was valued at about $33 million, according to its latest holdings data.

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Related: USDC issuer Circle wins final approval for US national trust bank charter

Circle also represented 3.35% of the flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), where it ranked as the fund’s ninth-largest holding, worth about $218 million.

Analysts see growing risks for Circle

ARK’s latest purchase came as analysts reassessed Circle’s outlook following a sharp decline in the company’s stock price.

Digital asset research platform 10x Research said it no longer considers Circle a buy after the stock fell back below $80. In a report published Tuesday, the company said it previously viewed CRCL as attractive below that level but now says Circle’s fundamentals have “meaningfully deteriorated.”

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Source: 10x Research

The research report also pointed to slower USDC activity, including a decline in active addresses, as a concern for Circle.

Related: USDT wins payments, USDC wins DeFi as stablecoins diverge: Dune

USDC’s market capitalization has declined roughly 3% year-to-date to $73 billion at the time of publication, according to CoinGecko. Despite the recent decline, the stablecoin’s market capitalization remains about 17% higher than a year ago.

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Still, 10x Research said a bullish case for Circle remains, adding the stock’s recent decline could either present a long-term buying opportunity or mark the start of a more prolonged downturn.

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Needham defies AI crash fears with bold SpaceX $250 target

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SpaceX intraday stock chart showing shares trading around $135.83 after rebounding from a midday drop below $133 during the trading session.

SpaceX stock has steadied above its IPO price after Needham raised its price target to $250 despite growing warnings that an AI stock bubble could threaten financial markets.

Summary

  • Needham raised its SpaceX price target to $250 and maintained a buy rating despite growing AI bubble concerns.
  • Bank of England Governor David Bailey warned an AI stock crash could spill into the economy and affect monetary policy.
  • SpaceX stock is holding above $135 support, with technical indicators showing fading bearish momentum inside a descending channel.

According to Needham, the investment bank lifted its target on SpaceX shares from $200 to $250 while maintaining a buy rating, arguing that recent AI developments and upcoming launch milestones could support the company’s valuation.

The upgrade comes even as SpaceX stock remains under pressure after a sharp pullback from its post-listing highs.

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Shares traded around $136 at the time of writing on July 15, down 0.18% on the day after briefly falling to the IPO price of $135 earlier this week. The stock had slipped below its Nasdaq debut price of $150 on July 7 as investors continued taking profits following its strong listing rally.

SpaceX intraday stock chart showing shares trading around $135.83 after rebounding from a midday drop below $133 during the trading session.
Source: Yahoo Finance

Needham sees AI and Starship as upside catalysts

Needham attributed its higher valuation to two near-term developments linked to Elon Musk’s AI strategy and SpaceX’s launch schedule. The bank said the release of Grok 4.5 on July 8 fits with Musk’s efforts to rebuild the company’s AI program, a development it believes could strengthen investor confidence.

The investment bank also pointed to the planned Starship Flight 13 launch on July 16. According to Needham, a successful mission could expand SpaceX’s commercial opportunities and act as another catalyst for the stock.

The bullish call stands in contrast to growing concerns about AI-related valuations. On July 8, former White House economic advisers Jared Bernstein and Ryan Cummings warned that the AI bubble continues to inflate as technology companies keep increasing spending on artificial intelligence.

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Those concerns gained fresh attention after Bank of England Governor David Bailey cautioned that a sharp correction in AI stocks could spill over into the broader economy. Bailey said such a downturn could eventually require central banks to respond with measures such as interest-rate cuts to limit economic damage.

Even with those warnings, investor appetite for AI companies has remained firm. Reports that DeepSeek is preparing an initial public offering at a valuation of roughly $75 billion have added to expectations for another major AI listing. The planned flotation follows reports that OpenAI and Anthropic are also preparing to go public.

Technical picture points to a key breakout level

The hourly chart shows SpaceX shares trading inside a descending channel that has guided price action lower since early July. Although the broader short-term trend remains bearish, the stock has bounced from support near $135, where the lower boundary of the channel and the psychological support level converge.

Hourly SPCX chart showing SpaceX stock trading inside a descending channel, holding above $135 support as RSI nears oversold and bearish momentum weakens.
Spacex 1-hour chart — July 15 | Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators suggest selling pressure may be easing. The Relative Strength Index has recovered to around 36, keeping the stock close to oversold territory without yet confirming a reversal. At the same time, the MACD remains below zero, but its histogram has flattened considerably, indicating bearish momentum is weakening.

For buyers, the first technical hurdle sits near the channel’s upper boundary around $137 to $138. A move above that area could clear the path toward $140, while a sustained breakout may allow the stock to retest its Nasdaq debut price of $150. Conversely, if the $135 support fails, the descending channel suggests the current downtrend could continue.

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Institutional investors have continued adding exposure despite the recent decline. ARK Invest purchased approximately $21.3 million worth of SpaceX shares on July 13, extending a position that began with a $528 million purchase when the company debuted on Nasdaq on June 12 under Cathie Wood’s leadership.

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Trump Meme Coin Reveals Liquidity Update: Will It Change Price Misery?

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Trump Meme Coin Price Performance

The Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin team may deploy up to 9.6% of total supply, roughly 96 million tokens worth about $150 million at current prices, over the coming months. TRUMP trades 98% below its January 2025 peak of $73.43.

That potential deployment equals about 40% of the token’s 237 million circulating supply and nearly three days of its $55 million daily trading volume. The scale of the plan frames the recovery question.

Trump Meme Coin Price Performance
Trump Meme Coin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Trump Meme Coin Supply Math Weighs on Recovery

The team said in its latest update that about 67% of the 1 billion maximum supply has unlocked under a public daily schedule. Since February, roughly 5% of previously unlocked tokens were sold, deployed, or otherwise monetized.

Ownership structure gives those numbers weight. Per the project’s own disclosures, CIC Digital LLC, a Trump Organization affiliate, and Fight Fight Fight LLC own 80% of supply under a three-year unlock. Both entities also earn revenue from trading activity.

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With 670 million tokens unlocked and only 237 million circulating, most unlocked supply appears to sit off the market. Planned dispositions would move part of it into partnerships, acquisitions, the TRUMP Coin Club, and the mobile game.

“These actions continue to reflect a balanced, long-term approach to ecosystem development, prudent management of inventory from the original mint, and continued engagement with the $TRUMP community.”

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

However, history explains holder anxiety. Nansen data showed nearly 1 million buyers sitting on $3.81 billion in combined losses since launch.

Liquidity Programs Look Small Against Potential Sales

The team paired the plan with liquidity spending. A Kamino campaign distributed about 114,000 TRUMP, worth near $180,000 today, growing the TRUMP-SOL pool from $2,000 in March to a $1.66 million May peak. New pools followed on Orca and Raydium.

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Yet that peak depth covers barely 1% of the potential $150 million in dispositions. Demand-side spending is similarly modest, with $1 million in entrepreneur grants and another $1 million distributed through the mobile game waitlist.

Meanwhile, the market offers no cushion. TRUMP trades near $1.57, down 83% in a year and 22% in 30 days. The token set an all-time low of $1.50 on June 6, with its $372 million market cap ranked 120th.

Trump Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Trump Price Performance. Source: TradingView

Critics see access selling rather than ecosystem building. The token drew sharp criticism from Peter Schiff, while one senator demanded a meme coin ban after the project’s reported $636 million windfall.

The update promises discipline, but the arithmetic stays lopsided. Unless ecosystem demand absorbs a 96 million token pipeline, price relief may prove elusive, especially with meme coin dominance at a two-year low.

The post Trump Meme Coin Reveals Liquidity Update: Will It Change Price Misery? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Trump Steps Into CLARITY Act Talks: Can the Senate Deliver Before Recess?

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Clarity Act Passage Odds in 2026. Source: Polymarket

President Donald Trump will meet senators at the White House on Thursday to review progress on the CLARITY Act. Ripple executives, meanwhile, warned that rejecting the bill would leave crypto consumers exposed to bad actors.

The bill has cleared every hurdle except the Senate floor, where it needs 60 votes. Leaders want it passed before the August recess.

Why Trump Is Stepping Into CLARITY Act Talks

Sen. Bernie Moreno told Politico that senators will update the president on Thursday afternoon. Sen. Cynthia Lummis, a lead architect, said a revised draft could circulate soon, with ethics language possibly bracketed for later.

The ethics provision remains the biggest obstacle. Trump’s annual disclosure listed $635 million in meme coin royalties and roughly $515 million from World Liberty Financial token sales. Democrats want limits on officials holding crypto business interests before they supply the missing votes.

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The arithmetic explains the urgency. The House passed the bill 294-134 in July 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it 15-9 in May. Only two Democrats, Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks, backed it in committee.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune wants a floor vote before the work period ends on August 7. However, Trump has already pushed the CLARITY Act publicly, even as a shrinking Senate window raises the stakes.

“I’m hoping that we can come up with some agreement by the end of this week. I think it’s critical if we’re going to try and get this across the floor before August recess,” Politico reported, citing Sen. Thom Tillis, who signaled negotiators are close.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

Ripple Frames a No Vote as Anti-Consumer

Ripple’s stake in the outcome is personal. The company fought the SEC for four years over XRP’s legal status. Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty argued the same uncertainty now threatens consumers.

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“A vote against the Clarity Act is a vote to leave the same unregulated conditions in place to be exploited by bad actors. We’ve seen this movie. Let’s not watch the sequel,”

In the same tone, Lauren Belive, Ripple’s global public policy co-head, argued that with the delay, the regulatory gaps behind FTX’s collapse remain open.

The bill would hand the SEC and CFTC shared jurisdiction and require oversight before tokens reach the market.

Opposition persists, however. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Chris Van Hollen say the draft weakens consumer protections rather than adding them.

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Separately, 78 banking groups pushed to rewrite the stablecoin yield rules. In contrast, law enforcement opposition eased on Section 604 developer liability.

Polymarket traders price passage at only 38% in 2026, suggesting waning confidence as the countdown continues.

Clarity Act Passage Odds in 2026. Source: Polymarket
Clarity Act Passage Odds in 2026. Source: Polymarket

Thursday’s meeting will show whether an ethics deal revives those odds before the clock runs out.

The post Trump Steps Into CLARITY Act Talks: Can the Senate Deliver Before Recess? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Brian Armstrong Asks if Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Crypto Community Can’t Agree

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Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong sparked debate over Bitcoin’s direction on July 14 after asking X users whether the OG cryptocurrency has already reached its market bottom.

The poll quickly drew thousands of votes and a wave of comments, with the community split almost evenly between the yays and the nays.

Poll Splits Crypto X Down the Middle

It all started with a simple question Armstrong posited on X earlier today: “Is the bottom in?” The Coinbase chief also clarified in a follow-up post that the survey was specifically about Bitcoin.

“Perpetual futures trading, stablecoin payments, prediction markets, and tokenized real world assets have just been growing,” he said.

At the time of writing, nearly 31,000 people had cast their vote, and more than 648,000 X users had viewed the post, with 55.6% of those who voted answering “No,” while 44.4% believed BTC had already bottomed.

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The replies were also split along the same lines as the vote, with one user, AI developer Ilan Rakhmanov, in total agreement, tweeting, “Opinion: the bottom is in.”

Meanwhile, ChainLeak founder Joshuwa Roomsberg argued that the poll had become a “market map” and that Armstrong’s comments pointed to a sector where crypto adoption is expanding beyond BTC itself.

Some of those who didn’t agree that the bottom was in included market watcher Our Crypto Talk, who said there was a “very high chance” BTC would go back to the $50,000 to $55,000 range one more time before any real recovery happens.

Others, like crypto educator Rob Art, focused squarely on percentages, saying that in past bottoms, the price of BTC dropped by 93%, 84%, and 77%, while right now it is just over 50% below its October 2025 all-time high and would need to be at roughly 65% to follow the pattern that he pointed out has been in effect since 2014.

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On-Chain Data Paints a More Balanced Picture

While opinions remained divided, recent on-chain analysis points to a market that looks very different from the overheated conditions seen during the 2025 bull run.

A July 14 report from XWIN Japan highlighted four widely followed CryptoQuant indicators: the MVRV Ratio, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), Realized Price, and the Puell Multiple.

According to the update, these metrics suggest Bitcoin is no longer in a euphoric phase, with valuations cooling and investor optimism fading without reaching outright capitulation. It also showed that market activity appears more consistent with consolidation and accumulation.

That assessment broadly matches Bitcoin’s recent price behavior. Despite selling pressure linked to renewed conflict involving Iran and the United States and earlier concerns over Strategy’s Bitcoin sales, the cryptocurrency has fought its way back close to $63,000, having found itself near $61,000 on Monday.

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Whether those rebounds mark the start of a durable recovery or simply another pause within the wider bear market is still an open question, but for now, Armstrong’s poll shows that there’s little consensus, even among crypto’s most engaged participants.

The post Brian Armstrong Asks if Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Crypto Community Can’t Agree appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Warren Buffett Says Alphabet (GOOGL) Can Beat 95% of Wall Street Stock Picks

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Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance

Warren Buffett says Alphabet is more likely to beat 90% to 95% of the stock picks Wall Street makes. The Berkshire Hathaway chairman made the rare endorsement on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Wednesday.

Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped 3.65% to $370.36 after the interview. Berkshire’s stake now tops $31 billion. Only Apple and American Express rank higher among its stock holdings.

Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance
Alphabet (GOOGL) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance

Buffett Says the Alphabet Bet Was His Idea

For months, investors assumed new CEO Greg Abel was behind the bet. Buffett ended that debate in two words, telling interviewer Becky Quick, “I initiated.”

Still, he said Abel has the final word. Reportedly, the two talk every day and approve each other’s moves. Abel laid out Berkshire’s narrow AI plans at the shareholder meeting in May.

The position grew in three steps. Berkshire started buying in Q3 2025 and kept adding through early 2026. Then, in June, it bought $10 billion more in a private deal tied to Alphabet’s $80 billion AI raise.

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Alphabet’s SEC filing shows Berkshire paid $351.81 per Class A share and $348.20 per Class C share.

Buffett also owned up to a miss. He said skipping Google in its early, cheaper-to-run years was a mistake.

Buffett Calls AI Spending ‘Real Money’

Buffett did not sugarcoat the risk. Alphabet alone plans $180 billion to $190 billion in capital spending this year, with more coming in 2027. That dwarfs what railroads ever spent, he noted, calling it “real money.”

The record he leans on is just as striking. Alphabet grew Q1 revenue 22% to $110 billion, and Google Cloud sales jumped 63%. It also generated $174 billion in operating cash flow over the past year, according to the same filing.

“…more likely to be a winner based on the record than they’re probably 90% or 95% of what gets merchandised through Wall Street, because Wall Street is interested in whether they can sell something,” Buffett said on CNBC.

However, the praise had limits. Buffett still likes at least four or five other Berkshire businesses more. He also took a shot at analysts, saying they obsess over the next quarter instead of real returns.

History gives his words extra weight. His last big tech swing, Apple in 2016, became Berkshire’s largest and most profitable holding. Alphabet also joined the Dow three weeks ago, while big money keeps rotating into stocks during the crypto winter.

Meanwhile, several billionaires picked Amazon as their top AI trade instead. Alphabet’s earnings later this month will test whether the Buffett bump holds.

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The post Warren Buffett Says Alphabet (GOOGL) Can Beat 95% of Wall Street Stock Picks appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Aave pushes beyond Ethereum with Avalanche RWA lending expansion

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Aave adopts Chainlink CCIP as default engine for cross-chain actions

Aave has expanded its V4 lending protocol beyond Ethereum for the first time by deploying it on Avalanche to support tokenized real-world asset lending and institutional credit markets.

Summary

  • Aave V4 has launched on Avalanche in its first deployment outside Ethereum.
  • The rollout focuses on institutional lending backed by tokenized real-world assets.
  • AAVE fell over 3% despite the launch as broader crypto market weakness persisted.

According to an announcement from Aave, the deployment brings the protocol’s latest lending infrastructure to Avalanche, a network already used for decentralized finance, tokenization, and institutional blockchain applications.

The rollout follows Aave V3’s earlier presence on Avalanche, where the protocol has managed billions of dollars in liquidity, and introduces infrastructure designed for specialized lending markets backed by tokenized assets.

Avalanche becomes Aave’s first destination for V4

With the new deployment, Aave V4 introduces a Hub and Spoke architecture that allows separate lending markets to operate under their own collateral and risk settings while remaining connected to shared liquidity. According to Aave, the structure is intended to support institutional use cases without isolating liquidity across individual markets.

Among the planned applications are lending markets backed by tokenized U.S. Treasuries, money market funds, private credit, and corporate bonds. According to Aave, one of the first Avalanche-based markets will allow institutions to borrow against tokenized collateral through the protocol’s liquidity network.

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Recent activity on Avalanche has added context to the decision. As previously reported by crypto.news, Aave expanded its use of Chainlink’s Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP), making it the default infrastructure for cross-chain operations across the Aave App and Stable Vaults.

According to Aave, CCIP now supports token transfers, vault management, governance execution, GHO stablecoin transfers, and governance messaging through a single interoperability layer.

Tokenized asset lending becomes the next focus

Additional momentum for Avalanche’s tokenization ecosystem came from Bridgetower’s July 13 announcement. As reported by crypto.news, the company tokenized more than $11 billion in real-world production assets, including the Arizona Copper-Gold project, on Avalanche using Chainlink infrastructure. crypto.news also reported that the transaction lifted Avalanche to fifth place in net real-world asset inflows tracked by RWA.xyz.

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Commenting on the deployment, Aave founder Stani Kulechov said Avalanche’s established Aave market and growing tokenization ecosystem made it a suitable network for the protocol’s first V4 expansion outside Ethereum.

“Aave V4 was designed to enable new credit markets at internet scale.”

Kulechov added that one of the first planned markets on Avalanche will focus on lending against tokenized assets, according to the announcement.

Ava Labs President John Wu also linked the launch to the next stage of asset tokenization, arguing that the technology is increasingly being used to unlock financial activity rather than simply represent assets on-chain.

“The next phase of tokenization is about putting assets to work, not just bringing them onchain.”

According to Aave, the Avalanche deployment will also serve as a reference for future V4 rollouts on other blockchain networks, with each implementation adapted to the characteristics of its host ecosystem.

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Despite the product launch, AAVE has remained under pressure. The token traded at $96.66 after falling more than 2% over the past 24 hours, extending a week of weakness that has coincided with recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price.

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