Bitcoin pulled back from its weekly lows as traders returned to watch a busy U.S. macro calendar, with the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday interest-rate decision arriving shortly after the Wall Street open. Still, analysts say the rebound has struggled to build momentum, pointing to a lingering, very specific drag tied to Strategy’s Bitcoin position.

QCP Capital’s latest Market Color argues that, despite broader risk appetite improving, BTC has not been able to fully participate. The firm highlighted concerns that Strategy could be forced to sell additional Bitcoin to fund dividend obligations, even after recent balance-sheet actions that were intended to extend its liquidity runway.

Key takeaways

• BTC/USD rebounded after dipping to about $64,500 on Bitstamp ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
• QCP says BTC’s underperformance versus broader markets is linked to worries about further Strategy Bitcoin sales for dividend funding.
• QCP frames Fed chair Kevin Warsh’s first rate decision as unusually difficult given the tension between inflation concerns and rate-cut expectations.
• CME Group’s FedWatch Tool data shows traders pricing in no rate cuts at the Wednesday meeting, with markets increasingly focused on the possibility of hikes later in the year.

Strategy’s liquidity plans keep a lid on BTC strength

TradingView data cited in earlier coverage showed BTC/USD trending higher after the asset marked a new low for the week around $64,500 on Bitstamp. The bounce followed a period of caution as investors braced for volatility around the Federal Reserve’s announcement, scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern time.

As Cointelegraph previously noted, major central-bank events often bring downside risk for Bitcoin in the short term. However, QCP’s analysis suggests the issue is not solely about the Fed headline. In its Market Color, the firm wrote that BTC remained trapped below the $66,000 area while broader markets traded up on optimism across multiple fronts.

“While broader markets continue to trade higher on optimism across multiple fronts, BTC remains stuck below the 66k level,” QCP wrote.

The clearest culprit in QCP’s assessment was Strategy. The firm said market worries center on whether Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to support dividend payments—particularly after the company had already bought back $1.5 billion of its 2029 Convertible Senior Notes.

“The underperformance has been driven in part by concerns that Strategy may need to sell more Bitcoin to fund dividend payments,” QCP added.

QCP also pointed out that Strategy has taken steps to extend its liquidity runway following prior BTC sales. The analysis referenced that the company “extended its runway” after selling 32 BTC in May, and suggested that these contingency measures can reduce the immediate pressure. Yet the market is still focused on what comes next.

In QCP’s view, the overhang could keep Bitcoin from fully tracking macro optimism in the near term. Over time, as Strategy continues issuing shares and lengthening its runway, it expects sentiment to potentially improve—but for now, the firm argued BTC still has a specific hurdle to clear.

“In the short term, we think this overhang may continue to prevent Bitcoin from fully participating in the broader macro optimism,” QCP wrote.

Warsh’s first Fed meeting becomes a test of how the market should price rates

While BTC traders looked to the Fed for direction, QCP placed equal weight on the significance of who is delivering the message. The firm emphasized that Kevin Warsh takes the stage at his first FOMC meeting as chair.

“Warsh takes the stage at his first Fed meeting as Chair today,” QCP said in its analysis.

QCP noted that expectations had previously positioned Warsh as relatively dovish and more inclined toward rate cuts. But the economic backdrop, the firm argued, has shifted materially—raising the likelihood that Warsh will need to navigate competing pressures.

According to QCP, the meeting represents more than just the rate decision itself, especially with Jerome Powell stepping out of the role. The firm described Warsh’s task as establishing buy-in from Powell and the broader board while also proving he can operate as a credible and independent chair.

“Today’s meeting will therefore be about more than the rate decision,” QCP wrote. “It will be Warsh’s first opportunity to secure buy-in from Powell and the rest of the Board, while establishing himself as a credible and independent Fed Chair.”

FedWatch pricing: no cut now, uncertainty remains toward year-end

Market pricing for Wednesday’s decision offers a clearer picture of what traders are bracing for. Data referenced from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed no odds of the FOMC cutting rates at the meeting.

At the same time, commentary in the source material suggested that investors are increasingly looking ahead to possible policy tightening later in the year. Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, said markets were moving toward expectations of a rate hike by year-end, which he warned could weigh on crypto and other risk assets.

Dragosch also pointed to an open question that may matter as much as the current decision: whether Warsh will ultimately lean hawkish or dovish in the face of rising inflation. In a post on X, Dragosch said there was still “a lot of monetary policy uncertainty” around how Warsh would be categorized, despite the inflation backdrop.

What traders should watch next

With BTC tied to both macro expectations and Strategy-specific selling anxieties, the near-term signal may come less from price alone and more from confirmation on policy path pricing and any updated clarity around Strategy’s liquidity planning. Investors should watch the Fed’s language closely for clues on the trajectory of rates, while also monitoring whether Strategy’s funding approach continues to reduce—or reignites—concerns about additional Bitcoin sales.

Stablecoin settlement infrastructure company Trace Finance has raised $32 million in a Series A funding round led by CoinFund.

Coinbase Ventures, Jump Capital and Paxos were among the investors that participated in the round, the company said Wednesday in a statement shared with Cointelegraph.

Trace Finance provides banking, foreign exchange and stablecoin settlement infrastructure for cross-border payments across Latin America. It claims to have processed more than $10 billion in transaction volume and plans to use the fresh capital to expand across LatAm, the US and Asia-Pacific markets.

The funding comes as stablecoin settlement increasingly moves into regulated financial infrastructure, with companies racing to connect blockchain-based payments to local banking systems and foreign exchange networks.

In 2022, Trace Finance raised $4.3 million in a seed round led by HOF Capital, with participation from Circle Ventures and Mantis VC, the venture capital firm co-founded by electronic music duo The Chainsmokers. HOF Capital also participated in the company’s Series A round.

Stablecoin market capitalization stood at about $315 billion. Source: DeFiLlama

Stablecoin regulation drives cross-border payments push

Stablecoin policy discussions accelerated globally after US President Donald Trump signed the GENIUS Act into law in July 2025.

The legislation spurred discussions around stablecoin laws in jurisdictions developing their own digital asset strategies. Hong Kong implemented its Stablecoin Ordinance in August 2025 and has recently granted its first batch of licenses.

On Wednesday, People’s Bank of China (PBOC) official Wang Xin said authorities are closely monitoring how stablecoins could affect the international monetary system and cross-border payments.

Wang’s remarks were less critical than comments made by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng in October 2025, when Pan described stablecoins as high-risk and vulnerable to misuse for illicit cross-border transfers.

As stablecoin regulations advance globally, private-sector firms have also ramped up efforts to build infrastructure for cross-border payments.

Last Thursday, cross-border payout platform MassPay partnered with Coinbase to offer stablecoin-powered international payouts. The companies said the service would allow customers to move between fiat currencies, USDC and other digital assets while reducing costs and speeding up settlement times.

Other financial infrastructure providers have also expanded their stablecoin offerings. Stripe acquired stablecoin infrastructure startup Bridge in 2025, while Circle launched its Circle Payments Network in May 2025 to connect banks, payment companies and digital wallets for real-time cross-border settlement using stablecoins.

Wall Street expectations for future Federal Reserve tightening have increased sharply, with Citadel Securities now warning that policymakers could begin raising interest rates again as early as September 2026.

According to a note from Citadel Securities Head of Macro Strategy Frank Flight, the firm sees a growing risk that inflation is becoming embedded across the U.S. economy, creating conditions that could force the Federal Reserve into a more aggressive stance than investors currently expect.

The warning arrives just ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on June 17, where CME FedWatch data shows markets overwhelmingly expect officials to leave interest rates unchanged.

While an immediate move is not anticipated, Citadel believes the focus should be on how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh frames the outlook for inflation and future policy.

Inflation data keeps pressure on policymakers

Within its client note, Citadel argued that inflation is no longer being driven solely by energy prices. Frank Flight wrote that the U.S. economy faces the risk of entering a “hysteretic equilibrium,” a condition in which temporary shocks leave lasting effects on inflation even after the original trigger fades.

Although oil prices have retreated following the initial U.S.-Iran agreement, Citadel said price pressures have continued spreading through other parts of the economy. The firm pointed to accommodative financial conditions, supply-chain disruptions, and ongoing labor-market strength as factors supporting inflation.

Additional signs of persistent inflation have emerged in recent economic data. Citadel highlighted that a growing share of core Consumer Price Index components are now rising more than 3% year-over-year. The firm also noted that headline CPI reached 4.2% in May, while Producer Price Index inflation climbed to 6.5%, indicating continued pressure on businesses and consumers.

At the same time, Citadel argued that the artificial intelligence investment boom is adding another source of demand. The firm estimates AI-related capital expenditures could reach roughly $750 billion in 2026 before rising to $1.25 trillion in 2027 amid spending tied to companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX.

Markets increasingly discuss the possibility of hikes

Against that backdrop, Citadel expects the Federal Reserve under Warsh to adopt a noticeably hawkish tone. Flight said policymakers could remove any remaining easing bias from their projections and publish forecasts showing no rate cuts during 2026.

“We think the risks skew to a rate hike at the September meeting,” Flight wrote.

Citadel further expects at least five Federal Reserve officials to signal support for future tightening and estimates that an inertial Taylor Rule framework would justify roughly 75 basis points of rate increases during 2026. The firm’s projected path includes potential hikes in September and December 2026, followed by another increase in March 2027.

Other market indicators have moved in a similar direction. Kalshi prediction market data currently assigns a 60% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates before July 2027. 

Separately, a recent Bank of America fund manager survey found that nearly 40% of respondents expect at least one rate hike within the next year, up from 16% a month earlier.

BNP Paribas has also shifted to a more hawkish outlook. The bank recently abandoned its expectation for stable policy and now forecasts three rate hikes beginning in December, citing strong employment data, persistent inflation, and inflation risks linked partly to the U.S.-Iran conflict.

For risk assets, Citadel warned that a prolonged period of tighter monetary policy could weigh on valuations. The firm said higher borrowing costs and reduced liquidity would likely create a more challenging environment for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market if investors begin pricing in additional Fed tightening.

Key Takeaways

• Carvana shares declined approximately 6% Wednesday following CarMax’s 7% drop after its Q1 earnings release
• CarMax exceeded EPS projections ($1.31 vs $0.96) and revenue forecasts ($8B vs $7.39B) while warning about margin challenges
• Used retail gross profit per unit at CarMax decreased $230 year-over-year, landing at $2,177
• Styrax Capital LP reduced its Carvana position by 26.6%, divesting 81,729 shares; company insiders offloaded $29M in stock last quarter
• Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus on CVNA with a mean price target of $93.14

Carvana shares began Wednesday’s session at $69.96 before tumbling approximately 6%, caught in the downdraft created by CarMax’s steep decline following the used vehicle dealer’s quarterly earnings announcement.

Carvana Co., CVNA

CarMax delivered results that surpassed Wall Street’s expectations on both the top and bottom lines. The company reported EPS of $1.31, exceeding the $0.96 estimate, while revenue reached $8 billion compared to the anticipated $7.39 billion. On the surface, the numbers looked impressive — but a closer examination revealed underlying challenges.

The primary concern centered on profitability metrics. CarMax’s gross profit per used retail unit fell to $2,177, representing a $230 decline from the prior-year period. CFO Enrique Mayor addressed this directly, acknowledging that the company’s current strategic approach “requires some margin concession to support sales growth.”

Average transaction prices increased by $1,168 per unit to reach $27,288, primarily due to elevated acquisition expenses. On a comparable store basis, used unit sales declined 0.8% during the quarter.

CEO Keith Barr also highlighted operational inefficiencies, noting that while CarMax facilitates over 2 million vehicle transfers annually, the company currently experiences “too many unproductive transfers.”

Rising Consumer Credit Stress Compounds Challenges

Regarding financing operations, Jon Daniels, SVP of CarMax Auto Finance, observed that consumers are “continuing to be pressured by overall inflation.” He highlighted that delinquency rates for both credit cards and auto loans remain elevated across the broader market.

CarMax significantly expanded its Tier 2 credit exposure from 10% to 25% of total volume and established a $96 million loan loss reserve for the quarter — a figure that drew considerable attention from investors.

This convergence of compressed margins, increasing acquisition expenses, and heightened credit exposure is what precipitated Carvana into Wednesday’s selloff. Market participants are factoring in the likelihood that comparable challenges may emerge in CVNA’s upcoming financial results.

Recent Trading Activity by Institutions and Insiders

Beyond Wednesday’s price action, noteworthy selling activity has occurred recently. Styrax Capital LP decreased its Carvana holdings by 26.6% during Q4, disposing of 81,729 shares and maintaining a remaining position of 225,272 shares valued at approximately $95.1 million.

Company insiders have also been transacting. VP Stephen R. Palmer divested 5,000 shares at $70.42 on June 1st. Director J. Danforth Quayle sold 14,525 shares at $70.00 on June 10th. Collectively, insiders have sold 415,812 shares worth approximately $29.1 million during the previous quarter. These transactions were conducted through pre-established Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements.

Despite recent selling pressure, Carvana’s most recent quarterly results were robust. The company delivered EPS of $1.69 versus the $0.32 consensus estimate, while revenue of $6.43 billion exceeded the $6.12 billion projection.

Wall Street analyst sentiment remains predominantly bullish. Needham maintained its Buy recommendation with a $120 price target on June 5th. JPMorgan elevated its target from $91 to $93 while maintaining an Overweight rating.

The consensus analyst price target stands at $93.14, supported by 17 Buy recommendations, 2 Strong Buys, and 5 Hold ratings on the stock.

CVNA’s 52-week trading range extends from $54.46 to $97.38, with shares currently positioned below both the 50-day moving average of $71.47 and the 200-day moving average of $75.25.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has moved closer to allowing tokenized stock trading as industry participants expect a new regulatory exemption that could support upcoming offerings from crypto firms, including Coinbase.

According to a Reuters report citing lawyers and market analysts, SEC Chair Paul Atkins is expected to introduce an innovation exemption that would allow companies to test blockchain-based financial products under a modified regulatory framework.

The proposal comes as several crypto firms prepare tokenized equity products that would let users trade shares around the clock with near-instant settlement.

As reported by crypto.news, Coinbase has already disclosed plans to launch tokenized stocks backed one-for-one by underlying shares, while Binance and other exchanges have expanded similar offerings outside the United States. Under the framework being discussed, tokenized shares could carry the same economic rights as traditional equities, including dividend payments and voting privileges.

The expected exemption follows earlier reports that the SEC had delayed efforts to permit tokenized equities after raising concerns about investor protection standards and custody requirements.

Industry participants cited by Reuters now believe the agency is preparing a revised approach that would allow experimentation without requiring full compliance with every existing disclosure and investor-protection rule.

SEC reviews market structure rules

Separate from the proposed exemption, the SEC last week advanced a market structure proposal that could influence how tokenized equities eventually operate in the United States.

As crypto.news reported earlier, the agency proposed rescinding Rules 611 and 610(e) of Regulation NMS, two provisions that have governed U.S. stock trading since 2005.

Rule 611 currently prevents trading venues from executing stock orders at inferior prices when better quotes are available elsewhere, while Rule 610(e) addresses locked and crossed quotations in national market system stocks.

The regulator said the proposal would also remove related definitions from Rule 600 and open a 60-day public comment period after publication in the Federal Register.

Commenting on the proposal, SEC Chair Paul Atkins argued that two decades of experience with Rule 611 justified a fresh review of its market impact. According to Atkins, the regulation may have produced unintended consequences that limited competition and increased complexity within equity markets.

While the proposal does not authorize tokenized stock trading, it arrives as the SEC continues examining ways to accommodate blockchain-based securities infrastructure. Previous reporting indicated that agency officials have been studying an innovation exemption specifically designed to support tokenized public equities.

Tokenized stocks attract growing interest

Interest in the sector has accelerated sharply over the past two years. According to data from CoinGecko, tokenized stocks expanded from 14 assets on Jan. 31, 2024, to 478 assets by May 31, 2026, representing growth of more than 3,300%.

CoinGecko identified tokenized equities as the fastest-growing crypto category during that period. The same dataset showed real-world assets increasing from 64 projects to 1,282, a gain of roughly 1,900%.

Large financial institutions have also begun exploring the market. As per a WSJ report, Citigroup is preparing tokenized shares tied to private companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic, initially targeting international investors before potentially expanding access to U.S. clients.

Elsewhere, the New York Stock Exchange is developing infrastructure for 24-hour stock trading through tokenized market systems, according to previous disclosures.

Taken together, the SEC’s ongoing review of tokenized equity exemptions and traditional market structure rules has positioned blockchain-based stock trading closer to the U.S. regulatory mainstream than at any point since the concept first emerged.

The decline is a reflection of a broader slump in investor sentiment toward digital asset-linked stocks. After a wave of crypto IPO enthusiasm last year, bitcoin BTC$65,329.97 and cryptocurrency prices have tumbled, and attention has increasingly turned toward artificial intelligence (AI) companies and a pipeline of highly anticipated tech listings like SpaceX (SPCX).

Several crypto companies, including Kraken and Consensys, have halted their efforts amid turbulent crypto markets.

BitGo provides custody, trading, staking and settlement services for digital assets. It also issues USD1, the U.S. dollar stablecoin tied to the Trump family-backed World Liberty Financial project.

The firm has also been promoting its Germany’s BaFin-regulated infrastructure platform as an option for companies adapting to the European Union’s digital asset regime, MiCA, ahead of a licensing deadline at the end of the month.