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Stock Futures Gain as Oil Retreats from $100 and Bitcoin Surges Above $72,000

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E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

TLDR

  • Stock futures for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted gains Friday morning following a sharp decline the previous day, supported by a modest retreat in oil prices.
  • Brent crude momentarily breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since August 2022, subsequently falling back to approximately $99.
  • Analysts describe the current oil supply disruption, linked to the Iran conflict entering its second week with the Strait of Hormuz remaining blocked, as historically unprecedented.
  • Bitcoin climbed above $70,000, with market observers pointing to a social media message from Trump as a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency’s advance.
  • Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically, with traders now pricing in a 47% probability of no rate cuts in 2026, compared to merely 3% four weeks earlier, amid mounting inflation concerns.

Friday morning brought relief to US equity markets as stock futures posted modest gains after Thursday’s bruising session pushed all three primary indices to their 2026 lows. Futures contracts for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 each advanced between 0.3% and 0.4% during early trading hours.

E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)
E-Mini S&P 500 Mar 26 (ES=F)

The upward movement came after an Axios report suggested a potential breakthrough in the Middle East crisis. According to the report, President Donald Trump informed fellow world leaders during a Wednesday virtual summit that Iran was on the verge of capitulation. However, official White House confirmation of these statements has not been forthcoming.

Contradicting any notion of imminent surrender, Iran’s newly appointed supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, doubled down on Thursday with pledges to continue hostilities. He explicitly stated Iran’s intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global petroleum shipments.

As the confrontation between Iran and Israel stretches into its second week, military operations continue to intensify. Fresh Israeli strikes targeted Tehran, while evidence suggests Iranian involvement in missile attacks affecting Dubai and Turkey. The United States military also reported the tragic loss of four service members in a refueling aircraft accident.

Oil Pulls Back But Stays Elevated

Oil prices experienced a modest decline Friday following days of turbulent trading. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped approximately 2% to trade beneath $94 per barrel. Brent crude, the global pricing benchmark, retreated from the psychologically significant $100 threshold after closing above that level Thursday for the first time in over two years.

Energy market experts characterize the current supply disruption as unparalleled in scope and severity. Washington responded by issuing its second exemption permitting purchases of previously sanctioned Russian petroleum, attempting to alleviate supply constraints.

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According to The Wall Street Journal, Indian government representatives are engaged in intensive negotiations with Tehran to secure passage for no fewer than 23 oil tankers currently stranded due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Indian officials suggest initial transit approvals could materialize within days.

Fed Rate Cut Bets Fall Sharply

The petroleum-fueled inflation anxiety is fundamentally altering market projections for Federal Reserve monetary policy. CME FedWatch data reveals traders now assign a 47% likelihood to the scenario where the central bank implements zero interest rate reductions throughout 2026. This represents a dramatic shift from the 3% probability assigned to this outcome just one month prior.

Friday morning saw the 10-year Treasury yield holding at 4.28%. Meanwhile, the US dollar index gained 0.3%, reaching its strongest position in three and a half months.

Market participants eagerly awaited Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation measurement tool. Additional economic data including fourth quarter GDP figures and the January JOLTS employment openings report were also on the calendar.

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Bitcoin broke through the $70,000 barrier in early Friday trading. Market commentators suggested a social media message from former President Trump may have contributed to the cryptocurrency’s upward momentum. Gold was tracking toward a weekly decline, pressured by dollar strength.

Thursday witnessed Brent crude’s most substantial single-session percentage increase since May 2020, highlighting the extraordinary volatility characterizing this week’s energy market trading.

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Dividend stocks are catching up to tech stocks on key earnings metric

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‘Fear is temporary, but greed is permanent’ says Main Management CEO on assessing geopolitical impact
‘Fear is temporary, but greed is permanent’ says Main Management CEO on assessing geopolitical impact

Dividend-paying companies are rapidly closing the earnings growth gap with technology stocks and contributing more earnings momentum to the S&P 500. After a significant increase over the past year on this key earnings metric, the trend suggests that dividend stocks may present an even stronger case to investors seeking income and safety in a volatile market.

The earnings momentum broadening out beyond the tech sector comes at a time when investors are seeking ways to limit risk amid the second military conflict in the Middle East in under a year and a shock to the oil markets that is unprecedented.

In Q1 2025, the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index posted earnings growth of negative 5.5%. By Q4 of last year, that earnings growth rate had rebounded to positive 9%. At the same time, the Nasdaq 100 Index saw earnings growth decline from over 35% in Q2 2025 to under 15% in Q4.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, said during this week’s CNBC’s “ETF Edge” podcast that the rotation that began away from the Mag 7 tech stocks well before the war merits a deeper look from investors at a time of market uncertainty.

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“We think one of best ways to take advantage of it is through quality stocks, companies growing their dividends for 25 consecutive years at minimum and that have been out of favor,” he said.

While the reversal began before the outbreak of war, Hyman said high quality, lower volatility stocks may be “kind of good to have during a conflict.”

“It’s not only the price [of the stocks] turning around but the fundamentals turning around,” he said. “Go back four quarters and all the earnings growth was coming from the tech sector and Nasdaq 100. Those dividends growers year-over-year, earnings were shrinking a little bit. But now the gap has closed and may shortly go the other way. We’re almost now to parity,” he said, referring to Bloomberg data cited by ProShares in a recent blog post on the topic.

ProShares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL) is one of the many exchange-traded funds that offers exposure to large-cap U.S. stocks that pay healthy dividends. Its top three holdings are Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Target.

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Performance of S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index over the past year.

ETF experts agree that the outlook for dividend stocks has improved across the market.

“Growth characteristics of companies in the financial sector, the health care sector, the industrial sector … those are where you often find dividend growth. They continue to experience more and more growth,” Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, told CNBC.

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A long history of dividend increases reflects consistent cash flow and disciplined management, however, it has not traditionally matched the rapid profit expansion seen in the technology sector. But strong operating performance and improving margins have helped boost profits for many dividend-payers from other sectors. And as earning rise, these companies continue to increase dividends while strengthening their balance sheets. At the same time, expectations for technology stocks remain extremely high after several years of strong gains, and as tech firms are spending huge sums on AI buildouts which is stressing their balance sheets and cash flow. Dividend-paying companies outside of tech often trade at more moderate valuations, and as their earnings growth improves, investors may increasingly view them as offering both stability and expansion.

Of course, if the U.S.-Iran war — and factors such as oil prices persistently above $100 and a Strait of Hormuz closure that is prolonged — pushes up prices across a supply-depleted economy and sends the global economy into a recession, there is no sure thing for stock investors. Dividend stocks and the ProShares NOBL ETF have been caught up in the recent stock market negative sentiment, down 5% in the past month but still up close to 8% over the past year.

Hyman said in his view this is “certainly not a time to capitulate, but maybe a time to tweak around the edges,” and focus more on quality stories. “We love our dividend growers,” he said.

He noted that after the two prior Gulf wars which were prolonged conflicts, stocks were higher in the six to 12-month periods after initial pullbacks, and up by as much as 25-30%. “The history is pretty darn clear … markets do rebound,” he said.

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The history is also clear, Hyman said, on dividend stock outperformance having “some durability to it.” And right now, these stocks are pulling even more weight in the market. “In addition to the durable outperformance opportunity from the dividend growers, the other thing that is very important is that it has kept overall S&P 500 fundamentals stable” Hyman said. “They are now filling the gap,” he said, as mega cap tech earnings growth slides, “and that suggests a little bit of a soft landing,” he added.

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XRP Structure Remains Weak Against BTC and USD Despite Recent Rebound

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XRP Structure Remains Weak Against BTC and USD Despite Recent Rebound

XRP remains in a fragile position, with both the USDT and BTC pairs still trading within broader bearish structures. Although the price is attempting to stabilize near key support zones, buyers have yet to reclaim the major moving averages or break the descending trendlines that continue to define the downtrend.

Ripple Price Analysis: The USDT Pair

On the XRP/USDT chart, the asset is still moving inside a falling channel and remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, which keeps the broader outlook tilted to the downside. XRP is now trading around $1.43, holding above the $1.10 to $1.20 support zone, while the first meaningful resistance sits at the $1.80 mark.

If buyers manage to push above that area, the next major hurdle comes in around $2.40 to $2.50. For now, though, the structure remains weak, and the recent RSI recovery only points to mild momentum improvement rather than a confirmed trend reversal.

The BTC Pair

Against Bitcoin, XRP continues to underperform and again, remains pinned below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. The pair is trading near 1,968 sats and is once again testing the key 1,950 to 2,000 sats support area, which has acted as an important floor in recent months.

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As long as that support holds, a short-term bounce remains possible, but any recovery still needs to clear the 2,500 sats resistance zone to shift momentum more decisively. If the current support breaks, the next downside target would likely be the 1,500 sats region, while a stronger reclaim of overhead resistance could open the way toward the key 2,700 sats resistance level.

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Circle’s (CRCL) strong trading volumes noted by Mizuho as it raises price target

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Middle East tensions, higher oil boost Circle (CRCL) shares as rate-cut odds fade: Mizuho

Circle’s (CRCL) USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in transaction volumes for the first time since 2019, prompting Japanese investment bank Mizuho to raise its price target for the stablecoin issuer to $120 from $100, while reiterating its neutral rating on the stock.

The shares rose 1% in early trading to $115.40 and are up roughly 95% from their February lows.

Analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins increased their Circle estimates, citing “USDC activity trends and use cases like Polymarket or agentic commerce expectations.”

Stablecoins, digital tokens backed by reserves such as fiat currency or gold, serve as key payment and settlement rails in the crypto economy, particularly for trading and cross-border transfers. The sector is dominated by Tether’s USDT with a $143 billion market cap, followed by Circle’s USDC at $78 billion.

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According to their Friday report, USDC has recorded about $2.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume so far in 2026, compared with $1.3 trillion for USDT. That gives USDC roughly 64% share of adjusted volumes, a sharp reversal from 2019–2025 when Tether consistently led, and USDC averaged about a 30% share.

The analysts said the shift matters because the long-term winner among stablecoins will likely be determined by real economic usage rather than market capitalization alone. Standard Chartered expects the stablecoin market cap to reach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Reflecting stronger USDC activity and expanding use cases, the Mizuho analysts raised several long-term Circle forecasts. They now expect “meaningful wallets” to reach 11.7 million by 2027, up from a prior estimate of 10 million, helping lift projected USDC market capitalization to $139 billion from $123 billion.

Circle has outperformed other crypto-linked equities recently.

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William Blair analysts said in a Thursday note that while recent gains could easily be linked to rising oil prices and a potentially more hawkish Federal Reserve, other factors are likely driving the move.

They pointed instead to the resilience of USDC’s market capitalization despite the broader crypto downturn, along with increasing investor recognition of Circle’s economic model and its leadership in stablecoin infrastructure.

Other analysts pointed to a positioning-driven short squeeze rather than fundamentals as the driver of the recent move higher in the shares.

While the company delivered strong growth in USDC supply, the stock’s outsized reaction post earnings was driven more by crowded short bets heading into the print than by strong financials, according to Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.

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Read more: Circle’s outperformance highlights USDC’s staying power, says bullish Wall Street analyst

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Foundation publishes mandate defining its role, core principles

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‘We need to prepare’ for quantum computing

The Ethereum Foundation (EF) released a sweeping new document outlining its philosophy, priorities and long-term role in stewarding the world’s second-largest blockchain network.

The 38-page “EF Mandate,” published Friday, frames the blockchain, whose ether (ETH) token is beaten only by bitcoin in market capitalization, as a technology designed to protect individual freedom in an increasingly centralized digital world and lays out the principles the nonprofit says must guide its development.

The document comes at a time of transition for the organization, following recent shifts in Ethereum’s technical roadmap and the resignation earlier this year of one of the foundation’s co-executive directors.

“The Ethereum Foundation is the original steward of the Ethereum project,” the document says. “The Foundation is not the parent, owner, or ruler of Ethereum. We are not ‘the system’ itself.”

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At the center of the mandate is the concept of self-sovereignty, which the foundation describes as Ethereum’s core purpose.

“The first aim is to ensure Ethereum becomes and stays a decentralized and resilient tool for self-sovereignty,” the manifesto states. “Our first fundamental principle is that a user has the final say over their identities, assets, actions, and agents.”

To preserve that goal, the foundation says four properties must remain central to Ethereum’s development: censorship resistance, open source and free (as in freedom), privacy, and security, collectively known as CROPS.

“We hold that these properties – CROPS – must remain, as an indivisible whole, the sine qua non of all Ethereum’s development priorities, which cannot be displaced,” the mandate says.

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The foundation also said it will measure its own long-term success by how unnecessary it becomes. For the time being, it will focus on work that no other ecosystem participants are likely to undertake, including long-term protocol research, public-goods security work and coordination across development teams.

Once the broader ecosystem can take over those functions, it plans to step back.

“Our goal is to reduce the Foundation’s relative influence over time,” the team wrote. “Subtraction is rather a process of ensuring Ethereum’s maturity: a trajectory of growth with decentralization, robust enough to outgrow and outlast us.”

More broadly, the document situates the blockchain within an ecosystem of open technologies that support free and decentralized systems. The EF describes Ethereum as part of an “infinite garden,” an expanding network of builders, communities and institutions working to keep digital infrastructure open and resilient.

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“The World Computer is decentralized infrastructure for permissionless compute, communication, and association,” the mandate states.

The manifesto concludes by reiterating the foundation’s long-term goal: protecting Ethereum’s promise as an open system that enables individuals and communities to coordinate without relying on centralized authorities.

“Our work is not about capturing markets, corporates, or states, nor about helping them extract or capture,” the document says. “We are here to uncapture the individual, and to entrench their freedoms of association.”

Read more: Ethereum Foundation leadership shake-up: Tomasz Stańczak out as co-executive director

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KuCoin Introduces Perpetual Futures Tied to Tesla and Strategy stocks

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Kraken, Nasdaq, Stocks, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization

Crypto exchange KuCoin has launched equity-linked perpetual derivatives tied to stocks, including Tesla and Strategy, allowing traders to speculate on their price movements through USDt-settled contracts that trade around the clock.

According to Friday’s announcement, the first listings include TSLAUSDT and MSTRUSDT perpetual contracts, which track price movements in the underlying equities but do not grant ownership of the shares. Instead, the products are synthetic derivatives settled in stablecoins.

The contracts have no expiration date and can be traded continuously. Positions can be opened with as little as 1 USDt (USDT), lowering the entry threshold for traders seeking exposure to equity-linked price movements through a crypto trading platform.

According to KuCoin, the product uses a pricing framework designed to track underlying equity benchmarks while accounting for differences between traditional stock market hours and the continuous trading environment of crypto derivatives markets.

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Access to the contracts may be restricted in some jurisdictions depending on local regulations, the company said.

Founded in 2017, KuCoin says its platform serves more than 40 million users across more than 200 countries and lists over 1,000 digital tokens for trading. The exchange ranks eighth by spot trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap data.

MicroStrategy, which rebranded to Strategy in February 2025, is currently the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, with 738,731 BTC on its balance sheet. Tesla ranks as the 12th-largest public holder, with 11,509 BTC.

Kraken, Nasdaq, Stocks, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization
Top 20 Bitcoin treasury companies. Source: BitcoinTreasuries.NET

Related: SEC’s ‘Crypto Mom’ calls for simpler disclosure rules, flags tokenization debate

Fintechs and exchanges move to tokenize stocks

The market for tokenized equities has surged since the beginning of 2025. Tokenized stocks now have a total market value of about $1.03 billion, according to RWA.xyz data, up from around $291 million on Jan. 1, 2025.

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Growth in the sector is being driven by fintech companies, crypto exchanges, and traditional brokerages alike.

In October, Robinhood expanded its tokenization initiative on the Arbitrum blockchain, adding 80 new stock tokens and bringing the total number of tokenized assets on the platform to nearly 500.

Kraken, Nasdaq, Stocks, Tokenization, RWA Tokenization
Tokenized equity market cap. Source: RWA.xyz

In June, more than 60 tokenized stocks became available on Kraken and Bybit following the launch of Backed Finance’s xStocks product. Last month, Kraken launched tokenized equity perpetual futures on its regulated derivatives platform, allowing eligible non-US clients to trade 24/7 leveraged exposure to major US stock indexes, gold and companies including Tesla, Nvidia, and Apple.

Traditional exchanges are also exploring the concept. In January, the New York Stock Exchange announced it is developing a platform for trading tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds with 24/7 trading and instant settlement, subject to regulatory approval.

In September, Nasdaq filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission seeking approval to list tokenized stocks. It has since partnered with Payward, Kraken’s parent company, and its subsidiary, Backed Finance, to develop an equities tokenization gateway. The platform is expected to begin offering services to issuers in the first half of 2027.

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Magazine: All 21 million Bitcoin is at risk from quantum computers