Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick said he believes crypto prices have already traced the low for the current cycle, and he outlined three signals he wants to see to confirm that view. In a note to clients on Friday, Kendrick pointed to Strategy’s latest Bitcoin buying, renewed demand for US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and continued weakness in oil prices.

Kendrick anchored his assessment around Bitcoin’s drawdown from its prior peak, stating that the cycle low would correspond to roughly $59,000 for BTC, about 53% below a $126,000 high. CoinMarketCap data cited in the note showed Bitcoin trading around $63,704 at its last update on Sunday.

Key takeaways

• Geoff Kendrick (Standard Chartered) says crypto has likely already bottomed, tying the call to market and macro confirmation.
• Strategy’s reported Bitcoin purchases are presented as one of the three indicators that would support a bottom.
• SoSoValue data shows Friday’s Bitcoin ETF activity with $85.84 million in one-day net inflows.
• Crude oil weakness is included as a macro backdrop indicator, with futures falling for a second straight day on Friday.
• Kendrick’s “winter is over” framing depends on whether the ETF flows and macro trend persist.

Why Standard Chartered thinks the cycle low may be in

In his Friday client note, Kendrick argued that the market has already reached the low and that the next step is confirmation across multiple dimensions—positioning within crypto, how traditional investors are expressing demand, and whether broader risk appetite is supported by easing energy prices.

To him, the setup is reinforced by three developments happening around the same time. First, Strategy reportedly added to its Bitcoin holdings “last week,” a move that would signal continued institutional-like accumulation even after a sharp decline. Second, Kendrick highlighted Friday’s net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, using data tracked by SoSoValue.com. Third, he linked the crypto outlook to crude oil futures, which were falling for a second straight day, citing Yahoo Finance data.

That combination matters because a “bottom” call in crypto tends to be fragile without evidence that demand is returning and that broader macro conditions aren’t worsening. Kendrick’s framework is essentially a checklist aimed at reducing the chances that the market’s lowest point is merely a pause before another leg down.

Bitcoin ETFs turn positive on Friday inflows

One of Kendrick’s most concrete inputs is the flow data from US Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue.com, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.84 million in one-day net inflows on Friday. Kendrick’s note further specified that investors directed capital into five funds, while eight of the ETFs saw no net change on the day.

While ETF inflows alone cannot prove a market bottom, they can serve as a useful proxy for whether mainstream allocation is restarting after a period of hesitation. For traders, ETF flow patterns are often watched for signs that dips are being actively bought rather than simply endured. For longer-term investors, sustained inflows tend to be read as a shift in willingness to hold Bitcoin exposure through regulated wrappers.

Still, the signal is time-sensitive: Kendrick’s thesis explicitly leans on confirmation. If subsequent days show continued inflow strength, it would fit his “cycle low” narrative; if inflows fade quickly, it may suggest Friday was more an interruption than a turning point.

Strategy keeps adding—despite its “sell” reality

Kendrick’s first indicator is also tied to Strategy, the corporate Bitcoin buyer most closely associated with CEO Michael Saylor’s public messaging. The note referenced Strategy’s reported additional Bitcoin purchase and framed it as part of the confirmation process for a bottom.

The background to this matters because Strategy’s Bitcoin strategy has been the subject of debate since it disclosed a first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022. In a June 1 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company disclosed that it offloaded 32 BTC, a move that ran counter to the firm’s long-running “never sell your Bitcoin” messaging associated with Saylor.

Coverage from Cointelegraph described how Saylor defended the sale as necessary for Strategy’s “digital credit” model. At the BTC Prague conference, he argued that limiting the company to a “won’t sell the Bitcoin” policy could undermine the value of credit instruments issued against that treasury.

The core point attributed to Saylor was that Bitcoin treasury companies must retain the ability to sell holdings when necessary to support dividend-paying securities and other BTC-backed credit products. That explanation helps reconcile the apparent tension between rhetorical commitment to holding and the practical flexibility required to operate a credit business.

For investors tracking Kendrick’s view, Strategy’s behavior is a key variable: continued buying supports the notion that conviction remains even if prices have fallen. But readers should also recognize that the firm’s structure and financing strategy can still include transactions that are not perfectly aligned with an “only accumulate” storyline.

Macro check: oil weakness as a risk backdrop

Kendrick also tied his outlook to macro conditions, specifically the direction of oil prices. In his note, he cited that crude oil futures fell on Friday for the second straight day, based on Yahoo Finance data.

That choice reflects a broader pattern in market analysis: when energy prices cool, it can ease cost pressures and potentially improve risk sentiment, especially for assets that have historically behaved like higher-volatility bets. If crude continues to trend downward while crypto demand indicators—such as ETF inflows—remain supportive, Kendrick’s “confirmation” logic becomes more convincing.

Conversely, if oil rebounds sharply or if macro stress reappears, the bottom thesis would face a stronger challenge, regardless of one-off improvements in crypto-specific demand.

Investors watching this next should focus on whether ETF inflows persist beyond Friday and whether Strategy’s purchasing trend continues, while also tracking whether oil’s decline holds up. Kendrick’s “winter is over” framing is ultimately a conditional call—confirmation will come from consistency across both crypto and macro signals.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick says he believes crypto prices have already marked the low of the current cycle, pointing to a trio of signals he wants to see align before he fully confirms a turnaround. In his view, Strategy’s recent Bitcoin buying, renewed demand for US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and continued weakness in oil prices are together shaping a more constructive backdrop for risk assets like crypto.

In a client note published Friday, Kendrick put a specific level on his “cycle low” framework, estimating the trough at $59,000 for Bitcoin—about 53% below the asset’s prior cycle peak near $126,000. He also cited market reference pricing, noting Bitcoin last traded on Sunday around $63,704, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Key takeaways

• Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered argues crypto has likely seen the cycle low, estimating Bitcoin’s trough at about $59,000.
• He highlights three confirmation indicators: additional Bitcoin purchases by Strategy, positive inflows into BTC ETFs on Friday, and further declines in oil prices.
• SoSoValue data shows US Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $85.84 million on Friday, with money flowing into five funds.
• Oil futures fell for a second straight day on Friday, according to Yahoo Finance data—part of Kendrick’s broader “macro risk” read-through.
• The discussion comes as Strategy continues to provoke debate with its reported ability to sell Bitcoin for its “digital credit” business.

Standard Chartered’s “cycle low” checklist

Kendrick’s approach is not a single-price call—he ties his thesis to observable market flows and macro conditions. The most direct market-action item is Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation, which he described in reference to reporting that the firm bought more Bitcoin last week.

In addition, Kendrick looked to ETF flows. According to data tracked by SoSoValue, Friday brought one-day net inflows of $85.84 million into US-traded Bitcoin ETFs. Kendrick’s note also reflects a distribution detail that matters for investors watching breadth: investors allocated into five of the funds, while eight saw no net change on the day.

The third leg of the framework is crude oil. Kendrick pointed to evidence that oil prices were continuing to break lower, with Yahoo Finance data showing crude oil futures fell on Friday for the second consecutive day. For investors, this is relevant because falling oil can shift expectations across inflation, growth, and broader risk appetite—variables that often influence liquidity-sensitive assets such as crypto.

After laying out the indicators, Kendrick ended his note with a seasonal metaphor: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring.”

Strategy’s buying signals and Saylor’s “dots”

As Kendrick’s note circulated, Strategy founder Michael Saylor issued another social-media prompt that traders and long-time followers often treat as a prelude to further Bitcoin purchases. On Sunday, Saylor posted “Still adding dots,” alongside the bubble/dot chart format that has become closely associated with Strategy’s periodic purchase messaging.

The post drew significant attention on X by mid-afternoon ET, according to the article context, underscoring how retail and institutional audiences monitor Strategy’s communications as part of their own flow expectations—even when the underlying purchases ultimately depend on execution and timing.

What the ETF inflow data suggests—and what to watch next

ETF inflows are among the most watched behavioral indicators in Bitcoin markets because they translate a portion of demand into a regulated wrapper and can be tracked daily. On Friday, the $85.84 million net inflow figure cited by SoSoValue suggests that, at least for that session, buyers showed up even as the market had been testing a lower range.

However, Kendrick’s thesis is best read as a demand-for-confirmation setup rather than a guarantee. The “confirmation” theme matters: one strong inflow day is not the same as sustained accumulation, and oil’s trajectory can also change quickly. For investors, the practical question going forward is whether the combination Kendrick listed—Strategy accumulation, repeat ETF inflows, and continued pressure on oil—persists beyond isolated data points.

Another angle is that the distribution across funds matters. Kendrick’s referenced split (five funds receiving inflows, eight unchanged) hints that demand was not concentrated into a single vehicle, but it also stops short of signaling broad-based acceleration across every ETF immediately.

The “sell” debate inside Strategy’s digital credit model

The turnaround narrative arrives alongside a separate development that has shaped how some observers interpret Strategy’s Bitcoin policy. Cointelegraph previously reported that Strategy disclosed its first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022, offloading 32 BTC in a June 1 filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The sale appeared to conflict with Saylor’s well-known “never sell your Bitcoin” messaging.

In defense of the decision, Saylor argued that the capacity to sell is necessary to support Strategy’s “digital credit” business. As he explained in remarks at BTC Prague, if the company’s policy prevented selling Bitcoin entirely, it could undermine the value proposition for the credit products tied to Bitcoin treasury holdings—because dividend-paying securities and other BTC-backed credit structures may require flexibility in how collateral is managed.

This matters for crypto investors because it reframes what “accumulation” means in Strategy’s context. Rather than portraying Bitcoin holdings as entirely untouchable, the company’s position—based on the reported comments—suggests a balancing act between keeping exposure and preserving the operational ability to support credit issuance and payout mechanics.

So while Kendrick is focused on signals that Strategy is buying more, the broader investor question is whether Strategy’s credit strategy could also introduce future episodes of selling that are conditional on market and product needs. For traders, that nuance can influence expectations around how much “buy-side” momentum to assume from headlines alone.

For the next phase, readers should watch whether ETF inflows continue across multiple sessions rather than just one day, and whether oil’s downtrend persists alongside ongoing signals of Strategy accumulation—while also tracking any additional disclosures that clarify how often Strategy’s “digital credit” requirements could translate into Bitcoin sales.

TLDR:

• Bitcoin mining difficulty dropped 10.09% at block 953,568, ranking as the 11th-largest decline in network history. 
• A 15% June price slide pushed hashprice below $30 per petahash, forcing older miners offline across the network.
• Public miners are unplugging rigs and redirecting power capacity toward AI and high-performance computing workloads.
• Texas miners curtailed operations due to the 4CP season, though rising hashrate suggests shutdowns were temporary

Bitcoin mining difficulty recorded its second-largest decline of 2026, dropping 10.09% at block 953,568. The adjustment pulled difficulty from 138.9 trillion to 124.9 trillion.

According to Galaxy Research, the move ranks as the 11th-biggest downward adjustment in network history. A sharp June price slide squeezed miner margins and forced hashrate offline, triggering the recalibration. The drop follows two earlier significant adjustments of 11.16% and 7.76% in February and March.

Price Pressure Forces Miners Offline

Bitcoin’s price fell roughly 15% in early June, pushing the asset below $60,000 before recovering above $64,000. The recovery came on hopes surrounding a potential US-Iran deal. The selloff, however, left a mark on mining economics before prices stabilized.

Galaxy Research explained the mechanics behind the adjustment: “A ~15% June price slide squeezed miner margins.

The epoch ran 15.6 days vs the 14-day target as hashrate came offline.” The extended epoch reflected how quickly operators powered down machines in response to tightening margins.

Hashprice, a key measure of daily mining revenue per petahash per second, dropped below $30 during the downturn.

TheEnergyMag noted that this threshold “pushes more sites closer to, or below, gross breakeven before corporate overhead, debt service, and expansion spending.” That figure does not yet account for capital spending or debt obligations.

Older-generation machines and high-cost operators faced the most pressure during this period. TheEnergyMag added that “older-generation machines and operators with higher electricity costs are more likely to be switched off when revenue falls,” while efficient fleets maintained positive margins.

Less competitive hardware became uneconomical and was powered down, contributing directly to the hashrate decline.

AI Redeployment and Texas Curtailment Add Pressure

Beyond price, a structural shift accelerated the hashrate decline. Several public mining companies have been redirecting power capacity toward AI and high-performance computing workloads.

TheEnergyMag reported that miners are “unplugging mining rigs or slowing mining growth as they retrofit sites for contracted AI/HPC use.” That shift removes Bitcoin hashrate even when the underlying power infrastructure remains active.

Texas-based miners added another layer of seasonal pressure. June marked the start of the four-coincident-peak, or 4CP, season under ERCOT rules.

Large power users in Texas face financial incentives to curtail load during peak summer intervals that set the following year’s transmission costs.

Bitcoin miners in Texas, one of the largest mining markets in North America, had strong reasons to reduce operations during potential peak windows.

TheEnergyMag noted that “the recent rebound in network hashrate suggests some of the early June reduction may have been a temporary curtailment rather than a permanent shutdown.”

The lower difficulty now benefits miners who remained online throughout the adjustment. For the current two-week epoch, each block requires less computational work to solve. Active operators will earn more bitcoin per unit of hashrate deployed as a result.