Key Takeaways

• VST shares began trading 12.6% lower at $146.23 following weaker-than-expected quarterly results
• Quarterly earnings per share reached $2.18, missing the Street’s $2.45 estimate; sales totaled $4.58B against a $5.75B forecast
• Executive Vice President offloaded 10,000 shares on March 9th at a price of $160.31 per share
• Wall Street maintains a Buy consensus rating with a mean target of $236.87
• JPMorgan increased its target price to $240 from $239 while keeping an Overweight stance

Vistra Corp’s fourth-quarter financial results disappointed investors significantly. The energy company failed to meet both earnings and sales projections by considerable margins, triggering a sharp decline in share price at Monday’s market open.

Vistra Corp., VST

Shares of VST commenced trading at $146.23, representing a 12.6% decline for the session. This marked a substantial retreat from the stock’s 50-day moving average of $163.60 and an even more pronounced distance from its 200-day moving average of $177.24.

The financial results painted a clear picture. The company reported fourth-quarter earnings per share of $2.18, undershooting analyst projections of $2.45. Quarterly revenue registered at $4.58 billion, substantially below the anticipated $5.75 billion. The company’s net profit margin came in at 5.32%.

Considering the stock’s 12-month trading pattern provides perspective on the selloff. VST has fluctuated between $90.51 and $219.82 throughout the past year, indicating that despite the painful decline, shares remain considerably elevated from their 52-week floor.

Wall Street’s Perspective

Notwithstanding the earnings shortfall, financial analysts maintain their optimistic stance on the stock. The prevailing consensus rating stands at Buy, with analysts projecting an average price target of $236.87 — representing significant upside from current trading levels.

JPMorgan revised its financial model following the earnings release and slightly raised its price target to $240 from $239, maintaining an Overweight designation. Goldman Sachs elevated VST to Buy status in February, establishing a $205 price objective. Jefferies similarly upgraded the stock to Buy during the same period, setting a $203 target.

Bank of America reduced its target from $231 to $218 while preserving its Buy recommendation. Scotiabank maintains a $293 target accompanied by an Outperform rating. Among the firms providing coverage, three assign a Strong Buy rating, twelve recommend Buy, and one maintains a Hold position.

Analysts project Vistra will generate $7 in earnings per share for the complete fiscal year.

Share Transactions and Shareholder Returns

Significant insider trading activity occurred prior to the earnings announcement. EVP Stephanie Zapata Moore disposed of 10,000 VST shares on March 9th at an average transaction price of $160.31, generating proceeds of approximately $1.6 million. Following the transaction, she maintains ownership of 114,409 shares.

Vistra announced a quarterly dividend distribution of $0.228, scheduled for payment on March 31st to shareholders registered as of March 20th. This represents a marginal increase from the previous quarterly payment of $0.23. On an annualized basis, this equals $0.91 per share, translating to approximately 0.6% yield. The company’s dividend payout ratio stands at 41.94%.

Regarding institutional ownership, multiple investment firms expanded their positions during the fourth quarter. Teamwork Financial Advisors boosted its stake by 39.9%, acquiring an additional 22,492 shares for a total holding of 78,855 shares, valued at $12.72 million at quarter’s conclusion. Procyon Advisors expanded its position by 395.2%. Harbor Investment Advisory surged 495.7% in its ownership, albeit from a modest starting point. Institutional investors collectively control 90.88% of outstanding shares.

The company’s financial structure carries considerable leverage. Vistra operates with a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.01, maintains a current ratio of 0.78, and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.39. The company’s market capitalization totals $49.51 billion.

Key Highlights

• Elon Musk revealed “Terafab,” an ambitious semiconductor manufacturing venture in Austin, Texas, uniting Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI
• Two distinct chips will be manufactured — one for Tesla’s cars and Optimus robots, another for space-based AI satellites
• According to Musk, current worldwide chip production satisfies merely 3% of his companies’ projected requirements
• First chips expected in late 2027, with full-scale manufacturing planned for 2028
• Tesla shares declined approximately 2–3% during premarket hours following the revelation

Elon Musk revealed ambitious plans for a substantial semiconductor manufacturing operation dubbed “Terafab” over the weekend, confirming it as a collaborative effort among Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. The disclosure triggered a decline in Tesla’s stock price during Monday’s premarket session.

The announcement took place at a decommissioned power facility in Austin, Texas. Musk characterized Terafab as comprising two distinct manufacturing plants, each dedicated to producing a unique chip architecture.

The first chip will serve Tesla’s automotive fleet and the Optimus humanoid robot platform. The second will support AI processing in orbital environments, engineered to withstand extreme conditions and elevated operating temperatures.

Tesla, Inc., TSLA

According to Musk, current worldwide semiconductor manufacturing capacity would fulfill just 3% of what his enterprises will ultimately require. While acknowledging Samsung, TSMC, and Micron as existing suppliers, he emphasized that future demand will surpass total global production capabilities.

The “Terafab” designation reflects Musk’s ambition to manufacture chips requiring one terawatt of power consumption — approximately equal to one billion Nvidia Blackwell processors annually.

SpaceX’s participation came as a surprise to many observers. The aerospace company, which recently consolidated with xAI, is gearing up for a public offering that analysts estimate could reach a $1.75 trillion valuation.

Financial Investment and Production Timeline

Early-stage development will demand tens of billions in capital expenditure. Tesla has already earmarked approximately $20 billion for new equipment purchases in 2026, a significant increase from the sub-$9 billion spent in 2025. Terafab investments are separate from these existing allocations.

Musk’s timeline calls for initial chip production in late 2027, ramping to maximum output throughout 2028. As reference, semiconductor fabrication plants generally require roughly three years from construction start to volume production.

Musk indicated Terafab will ultimately deliver one terawatt of computational power annually. To put this in perspective, the entire U.S. currently generates approximately half that capacity.

Space-Based Computing Takes Priority

One notable revelation: Musk projects that 80% of Terafab’s production will support space-based artificial intelligence computing. SpaceX intends to replicate in orbit what cloud computing giants currently perform in terrestrial data centers.

The facility will concentrate on two-nanometer process technology, representing the cutting edge of current semiconductor manufacturing.

Tesla’s stock price fell roughly 3.2% on Monday. The company entered the week with an 18% year-to-date decline, though maintaining a 48% gain over the trailing twelve months.

Shares currently trade at approximately 190 times projected 2026 earnings, with market valuations incorporating anticipated AI-driven revenue from autonomous taxi services and robotics divisions.

Tesla initiated its robo-taxi program in Austin during June but has yet to expand operations to additional markets. The company is simultaneously developing a third-generation Optimus robot.

Musk has not announced a specific construction start date for Terafab.

Key Takeaways

• Stock futures plummeted Monday as Iran launched retaliatory attacks after Trump threatened to target Iranian energy sites
• President Trump subsequently announced a postponement of planned military action following diplomatic discussions with Iranian officials
• Major index futures surged more than 2%, with Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all reversing earlier losses
• Crude oil briefly exceeded $100 per barrel before retreating following Trump’s postponement announcement
• The Russell 2000 index had officially entered correction, trading over 10% beneath its January peak

Wall Street experienced dramatic volatility Monday as equities initially tumbled before mounting an impressive comeback following President Trump’s decision to delay planned military operations against Iran after engaging in what he described as “productive conversations” with Iranian leadership.

During early trading, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures declined approximately 0.8%. The S&P 500 futures dropped 0.7%, while Nasdaq 100 futures experienced the steepest declines, sliding nearly 1%.

Iran had executed new offensive operations early Monday. These strikes occurred following Trump’s weekend ultimatum, in which he warned of imminent attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure should the Strait of Hormuz remain blocked beyond a 48-hour window.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards had issued counter-threats, promising to strike Israeli power installations and facilities servicing American military bases throughout the Gulf region if Trump proceeded with his pledge to dismantle Iran’s electrical grid.

Investors were already anxious following four consecutive weeks of declining markets. The technology-heavy Nasdaq registered its largest weekly percentage drop since early February during the previous trading week.

Crude Prices Breach $100 Before Reversing

Oil prices skyrocketed as Middle East tensions intensified. West Texas Intermediate crude contracts spiked to touch the $100 per barrel threshold. Brent crude, serving as the international pricing benchmark, surged beyond $113 per barrel.

Elevated crude prices heighten inflation anxieties and complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy outlook. Gold contracts, which had maintained positive year-to-date performance, wiped out all 2026 gains amid speculation that the Fed might maintain elevated rates for an extended period.

Markets pivoted dramatically when Trump reversed direction. He declared the US military would delay planned strikes following successful diplomatic engagement with Iran. Trading sentiment shifted immediately.

Equities Mount Dramatic Turnaround

By late morning hours, Dow futures had rocketed upward more than 1,100 points, representing approximately a 2.5% gain. S&P 500 futures advanced beyond 2.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 2.4%.

Europe’s STOXX 600 benchmark index reversed into positive territory. Precious metal commodities also registered gains. Crude oil prices tumbled sharply following the strike postponement news.

The CBOE Volatility Index, widely regarded as the market’s fear indicator, retreated after reaching two-week highs. The index last traded down roughly 4 points at 22.79.

Russell 2000 futures, representing small-capitalization equities, soared 4.7% after trading down more than 1% during the opening session. The small-cap benchmark had concluded Friday’s trading session more than 10% below its January 22 all-time closing high, officially confirming correction status.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Markets, commented: “This is obviously a postponement, not a complete ceasefire, and we will see what happens from here. What’s done is still not undone, so the impact has yet to be seen, but obviously, markets are breathing a sigh of relief.”

The Russell 2000’s correction confirmation and the Nasdaq’s month-long losing streak represented the most significant concerns for traders entering Monday’s session.

Brazil’s new finance minister, Dario Durigan, is expected to delay a public consultation on applying a tax on financial operations, locally known as Imposto sobre Operações Financeiras (IOF) to some cryptocurrency transactions, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

Durigan took office on March 20 after Fernando Haddad stepped down to run for governor of São Paulo. Reuters said the new minister wants to focus on microeconomic measures and avoid proposals that could trigger conflict with Congress during an election year.

The postponed consultation centered on a draft decree that could classify some crypto transactions as foreign exchange operations.

That matters because foreign exchange deals in Brazil can face IOF rates ranging from 0.38% on some inbound flows to as much as 3.5% on overseas purchases, remittances and card spending abroad. Transfers for overseas investment can face a 1.1% rate.

The proposal has already drawn pushback from major industry groups. In a joint statement ABcripto, ABFintechs, Abracam, ABToken and Zetta, which together represent more than 850 companies, said applying IOF to stablecoin transactions would be illegal under Brazil’s constitution and the country’s 2022 Virtual Assets Law.

They argued that stablecoins are not fiat currency and cannot be treated as foreign exchange instruments by decree or administrative rule.

The proposal drew attention in February after the central bank classified part of the crypto market, especially some stablecoin activity, within the scope of foreign exchange rules. That gave the Finance Ministry and tax authorities a base to study whether those transactions should fall under IOF.

The ministry may also shelve a separate proposal to end tax breaks on some investment securities.

• SIREN surges as momentum and strong trading activity increase.
• Profit-taking is, however, emerging after the recent sharp price rally.
• Key levels to watch are the support at $2.50 and the resistance at $3.20.

SIREN has surged sharply, drawing attention across the crypto market.

The token has recorded a 89% increase within a single day, which is an unusually large move even by memecoin standards.

This kind of rapid price action is rarely random, and it usually reflects a mix of strong momentum, speculation, and short-term market dynamics.

Here’s why the price of SIREN jumped that high

One of the main drivers behind this move is simple market momentum.

When a token begins to rise quickly, it tends to attract more buyers who fear missing out.

This creates a feedback loop in which rising prices lead to higher demand, which in turn pushes prices even higher.

SIREN appears to have benefited from exactly this kind of reaction.

At the same time, trading activity has increased significantly.

High volume during a price surge often signals strong participation from both retail traders and larger market participants.

However, heavy volume alone does not guarantee continued upside.

It often appears during both breakouts and tops, which makes it important to interpret carefully.

Profit-taking could halt the rally

Despite the strong rally, there are early signs that some participants are locking in profits.

After a near 100% surge, it is common for early buyers to start selling into strength.

This behaviour creates selling pressure that can slow down or reverse upward momentum.

The meme coin is already down 16% from its recently hit all-time high

When prices fail to hold near their peak, it can indicate that sellers are beginning to take control.

There are also concerns among some traders about the structure of the market behind SIREN.

Speculative assets with rapid growth can sometimes be influenced by concentrated holders.

This raises the possibility of larger players influencing price direction through coordinated buying and selling.

SIREN price forecast

Overall, SIREN remains in a strong but fragile position. Looking ahead, the key level to watch is around $2.50.

This level is acting as immediate support in the short term.

If SIREN manages to hold above this zone, the market may enter a consolidation phase.

In that case, the price could move between $2.50 and $3.20 while the market stabilises after the recent surge.

A stronger bullish continuation would require a clean break above $3.20.

If buyers can push the price back toward the recent all-time high and beyond, it would signal renewed strength.

However, this would also require sustained buying volume and strong market sentiment.

On the downside, a break below $2.50 would be a key warning sign.

If that level is lost with significant volume, it could indicate that profit-taking is accelerating.

In that scenario, the next area to watch would be around $2.00.

A move toward this level would represent a deeper correction after the recent rally.

Bitcoin began the week facing renewed macro headwinds as risk sentiment wavered and traders weighed the possibility of further downside in a pattern that resembles January’s bear flag. BTC traded around the mid-$60,000s after a weekend of outsized liquidations and a weekly close that fell short of reclaiming a crucial trend line, with the price hovering near $67,400 into the close and slipping below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $68,300. The setup comes as gold slips into bear-market territory and oil maintains a firm footing above $100 per barrel, underscoring a macro environment that remains conducive to volatility in risk assets.

Markets are integrating a mix of geopolitical risks, shifting Fed expectations, and on-chain signals. Several traders and analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s current action echoes a bear-flag scenario seen earlier this year, with potential consequences if selling pressure resumes. In practical terms, a breakdown from the flag could open the door to new multiyear lows, while a short-lived upside would need to clear a sequence of resistance levels to change the narrative. Estimated targets remain contentious, but some observers point to a test of sub-$50,000 if the pattern plays out in earnest, while participants will look for a sustained push above the high-$70,000s to reframe the setup.

Key takeaways

• Bitcoin closed the week below the 200-week EMA (about $68,300), with price near $67,400, renewing bear-market risks for bulls.
• The current price action resembles January’s bear-flag breakdown, suggesting the next move could push BTC toward sub-$50k if momentum accelerates on a breakdown.
• Market dynamics were amplified by elevated liquidations—over $400 million in the last 24 hours—indicating persistent selling pressure and liquidity-linked risk appetite.
• Gold dropped into bear-market territory, trading around $4,100 per ounce, while oil sustained gains above $100, underscoring inflation and energy-security concerns in the macro backdrop.
• On-chain data show long-term holders capitulating, with the Bitcoin Long-Term Holder SOPR dipping to 0.64 in early March, suggesting widespread losses among patient investors even as some supply moved off exchanges.

Bitcoin’s technical crossroads: bear flags, ranges, and a potential squeeze

Trading activity over the weekend underscored a fragile setup as traders awaited fresh cues from traditional markets. Data from TradingView show BTC’s price dipping to near $67,400 into the weekly close, failing to sustain a move back above the 200-week EMA, which currently sits around $68,300. Previously, a weekly close above that line had been viewed as a bulls’ lifeline; the latest close shifts the balance toward the bears’ camp for now.

Analysts have repeatedly warned that the market could circle within a defined range for a period as macro tensions persist. In particular, a number of voices on social media pointed to the January bear-flag precedent, where a breakdown from a consolidation pattern led to a renewed downtrend. The prevailing read is that a break below the lower boundary of the range could accelerate declines, while a lackluster upside would keep the door open to further weakness until macro catalysts shift decisively.

Strategists highlighted a nuanced near-term path. One analyst noted the potential rotation to around $65,000 should the week begin with renewed selling pressure, but a brief push toward $70,000 could lure bulls if price action gains a foothold. A breakthrough above $71,000 would likely require a clean close into the $73,000–$74,000 zone to reassert a bullish tilt; otherwise, risk-reward remains skewed to the downside in the near term.

Liquidity dynamics also shaped expectations. As weekend liquidity thinned, traders observed that small orders could have outsized price effects in the thin books, amplifying moves and triggering stop-loss clusters or liquidations. A few market voices warned against interpreting weekend volatility as a trend signal, reminding participants that thinner markets tend to exaggerate short-term moves.

Across the community, a mix of sentiment and risk due to macro headlines kept traders vigilant. Some suggested the risk of a short-term squeeze exists if liquidity-driven pressure eases and offers a window for longs to step in, but a sustained shift above key levels would be necessary to flip the narrative.

Macro backdrop tightens: gold, oil, and the Iran risk premium

The broader macro environment added a heavyweight note to the Bitcoin picture. Gold, which had been trading at elevated levels, slid into bear-market territory, with XAU/USD dipping more than 20% from its all-time high and testing around $4,100 per ounce. The slide fed into the broader risk-off impulse in early sessions as market participants weighed the implications of higher real yields and inflation dynamics. In commentary cited by traders, some observers argued that a significant liquidity event among large participants could be at play, as price action in the gold market suggested stress beyond routine fluctuations.

The energy complex also played a central role. Oil prices remained resilient above the $100 barrier, reflecting ongoing concerns about supply security, particularly in light of tensions in the Middle East. European and Asian energy markets showed heightened sensitivity to headlines about flows through strategic corridors, with observers noting that energy-inflation linkages tend to feed into broader macro expectations. A veteran market briefing noted that even moderate changes in oil prices can meaningfully influence headline inflation readings, potentially affecting the tempo of monetary policy decisions in the quarters ahead.

Against this backdrop, market research outfits highlighted potential inflationary implications. The Market Mosaic, a regular briefing from Mosaic Asset Company, stressed that oil price moves can directly affect inflation metrics, with a $10 per barrel swing historically contributing meaningfully to shifts in inflation readings. While the notes did not predict a specific outcome, they underscored the sensitivity of risk assets to energy-price shocks amid a policy backdrop that remains cautious about rate-cut horizons.

Fed stance, volatility, and the options backdrop

On the policy front, the commitment to inflation progress remained central. In the aftermath of the most recent Federal Reserve gathering, Wall Street’s takeaway was that any policy loosening would hinge on demonstrable progress toward inflation targets. The accompanying narrative from market observers suggested that rate-cut expectations were being pushed further out, with some analysts pointing to the potential for rate hikes to reemerge in 2026 should inflation prove stickier than anticipated. The evolving odds were being tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which reflected shifting probability curves as new data filtered in.

Beyond the Fed, traders also eyed the options market in a bid to gauge near-term liquidity flows. The Kobeissi Letter noted that last week’s expiration event—described as a substantial triple-witching session for U.S. stocks and ETFs—unleashed a significant amount of capital as large options positions expired. The implication, as described by The Kobeissi Letter, is that this could unleash fresh volatility into equities and by extension into correlated risk assets, including bitcoin, in the days that followed.

In this environment, the weekend volatility gave on-chain observers a useful reminder of how market structure interacts with price moves. CryptoQuant contributors observed that weekend sessions tend to see diminished institutional participation and ETF-driven demand, elevating the role of derivatives positioning and short-term liquidity. The takeaway from CryptoQuant’s QuickTake was clear: thinner order books amplify price sensitivity, and weekend action should not be misconstrued as a trend signal.

On-chain signals: capitulation among long-term holders

On-chain analytics painted a nuanced portrait of investor behavior. CryptoQuant’s analysis focused on the SOPR metric, which compares the price at which coins are moved on-chain to their previous cost basis. Investigators highlighted that Long-Term Holder (LTH) SOPR dropped to 0.64 in early March, a read indicating that LTHs were selling at a substantial loss relative to their cost basis. As one contributor described it, readings this far below 1.0 signal meaningful capitulation among patient holders, underscoring a period of fear in the market.

Despite the near-term pain for many LTHs, the broader signal remains ambiguous. The 30-day moving average of LTH-SOPR remained below 1, suggesting that while a portion of supply was exiting exchanges, other cohorts could be quietly absorbing supply and moving coins off-chain. Analysts characterized this as a possible distribution-accumulation dynamic at play, a classic hallmark of a market transitioning through a phase of capitulation while still containing pockets of absorption that could set the stage for a future regime shift.

Closing perspective: what to watch next

As Bitcoin navigates a week shadowed by macro risks, traders will be watching the confluence of technical levels, liquidity conditions, and on-chain signals. The immediate focal point remains a sustained move beyond the 200-week EMA and a clear exit from the prevailing range, which could determine whether the path of least resistance remains lower or if a credible bounce materializes. In parallel, the trajectories of gold and oil, influenced by geopolitical developments and inflation dynamics, will help frame risk sentiment across crypto markets. Finally, the evolving policy stance from the Federal Reserve and the behavior of large derivatives positions—along with on-chain capitulation versus accumulation signals—could shape volatility in the days ahead as markets price a longer horizon for rate moves and macro resilience.

Key Highlights

• AleAnna (ANNA) shares climbed 86.8% Friday, settling at $7.07 and reaching an intraday peak of $7.70
• European natural gas prices jumped as much as 35% following attacks on critical Middle East gas infrastructure
• QatarEnergy issued warnings that strikes could eliminate nearly 20% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for 3–5 years
• AleAnna disclosed a 47% increase in proved reserves to 25.8 billion cubic feet at the end of 2025
• The broader Nasdaq index dropped 2.01% during the session, though S&P 500 energy stocks extended gains for a 13th consecutive week

AleAnna Inc (ANNA) delivered one of Friday’s most dramatic market performances, surging 86.8% to close at $7.07. The stock touched an intraday high of $7.70, while trading volume exploded to approximately 115.4 million shares — an extraordinary figure for the Italian natural gas producer.

AleAnna, Inc., ANNA

The dramatic move coincided with intensifying geopolitical turmoil across the Middle East. Iranian officials warned of “zero restraint” should their energy assets face additional attacks, while Israeli forces announced their military operations would concentrate on eliminating missile production and nuclear weapons-related sites.

Tensions expanded throughout the week. A drone attack ignited a blaze at Kuwait’s Mina Al Ahmadi oil refinery, intensifying worries about regional supply stability. Reports also emerged of a U.S. F-35 fighter jet being struck during operations over Iranian territory, underscoring the conflict’s expanding military scope.

European natural gas benchmark prices skyrocketed by up to 35% Thursday after attacks damaged crucial Middle Eastern gas production facilities. The European Union responded by urging member nations to reduce gas-storage requirements to 80% in an effort to maintain market equilibrium.

QatarEnergy issued stark warnings that damage to their facilities could eliminate approximately 20% of Qatari LNG shipments for a period spanning three to five years. Wood Mackenzie’s Tom Marzec-Manser projected that both European and Asian natural gas prices would “remain elevated for longer” due to these developments.

A coalition of major global powers — including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Canada, and Japan — released a coordinated statement expressing commitment to ensuring secure navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following recent incidents that pushed energy costs higher.

What Sets AleAnna Apart

AleAnna concentrates on developing onshore natural gas assets and renewable natural gas initiatives throughout Italy. The firm generated approximately $13.9 million in revenue from Longanesi gas sales across the initial nine months of 2025, with commercial production commencing in March. Shell Energy Europe serves as the exclusive purchaser for its production allocation.

The company also delivered significant corporate updates recently. An independent evaluation conducted by DeGolyer and MacNaughton revealed a 47% boost in AleAnna’s proved reserves for year-end 2025, totaling 25.8 billion cubic feet. CEO Marco Brun characterized the figure as a “substantial increase” that enhances production forecasting confidence.

In February, Chairman Graham Van’t Hoff referenced the European Union’s strategic objective to eliminate dependence on Russian gas supplies as a “decisive policy inflection,” suggesting Italy’s domestic fields and pipeline infrastructure could provide reliable alternative supply.

Other natural gas companies experienced gains earlier in the week as well. Both Cheniere Energy and Venture Global saw upward price movement following QatarEnergy’s supply disruption alerts.

Potential Challenges Remain

AleAnna’s latest quarterly filing highlighted that future success hinges on obtaining adequate financing, complying with Italian regulatory frameworks, and advancing development activities at local field sites. The company also acknowledged deficiencies in its internal financial reporting systems.

ANNA’s Relative Strength Index approached overbought territory during Friday’s trading, indicating rapid accumulation of bullish sentiment over a compressed timeframe.

Friday’s explosive rally occurred against a backdrop of broader market weakness. The Nasdaq Composite declined 2.01% while the S&P 500 retreated 1.51%, as market participants grew anxious about inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran crisis. Nevertheless, energy sector constituents within the S&P 500 secured their 13th consecutive weekly advance.

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The Iran war has single-handedly soured the macro environment for risk-takers in financial markets, and some participants are betting it could end soon.

Onchain data tracked by Polymarket tracker PolymarketHistory shows that 10 wallets sprang to life on Sunday, wagering a cumulative $160,000 on a ceasefire by the end of March and eyeing a potential payout of over $1,000,000. The wallets have no prior transaction history and were created at the same time, raising suspicions of potential insider positioning on the outcome.

In any case, if the war ends, markets, including cryptocurrencies, could see a relief bounce.

For now, however, the conflict is in its fourth week and keeping valuations under pressure. Bitcoin BTC$68,358.29 held below $69,000 at the time of writing, maintaining losses from the weekend. Ether fell to $2,030, its sixth decline in seven days. XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), DOGE$0.09045 and others were also under pressure, while a few privacy tokens such as NIGHT and XMR stood out with gains of over 3% in the past 24 hours.

“The market is trading one theme above all others: geopolitical inflation. The weekend brought a new escalation phase, including U.S. pressure on Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and further threats to regional energy infrastructure. That has kept oil risk elevated and left investors pricing a longer period of tight financial conditions,” Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, said in an email.

“Bitcoin still has the cleanest value-capture profile in crypto for this tape: scarce asset, improving institutional plumbing, and relative flow leadership versus the rest of the complex.,” he said.

Market flows, however, have yet to validate that view. U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs registered outflows for the third straight day on Friday, alongside significant selling by large holders, or whales.

Ether, too, has seen large liquidations. A whale holding over 130,000 ETH sold 5,000 ETH ($10.31 million) at $2,063, according to Lookonchain.

In traditional markets, U.S. Treasury yields have surged to multimonth highs, signaling tighter financial conditions ahead, while futures tied to the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 hit their lowest levels since early November. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • March 23, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. Construction Spending MoM for January est. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • March 23: BTCS Inc. (BTCS), post-market, $0.01

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Aave DAO is voting on deploying Aave V4 with a security-first initial setup, conservative risk parameters and a modular hub and spoke architecture. Voting ends March 23.
  • Floki DAO is voting to rank entries from Floki’s third guerrilla marketing competition. Voting ends March 23.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • March 23: HTX DAO (HTX) staking launches officially

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 3.01% from 4 p.m. ET Sunday at $71,044.86 (24hrs: +3.56%)
• ETH is up 5.07% at $2,168.32 (24hrs: +4.20%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 3.05% at 2,030.41 (24hrs: 2.56%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 2.83%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0017% (-1.8177% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.45% at 104.30
• Gold futures are down 7.27% at $4,238.30
• Silver futures are down 8.18% at $63.69
• Nikkei 225 closed down 3.48% at 51,515.49
• Hang Seng closed down 3.54% at 24,382.47
• FTSE 100 is down 2.03% at 9,716.51
• Euro Stoxx 50 is down 2.01% at 5,390.70
• DJIA closed on Friday down 0.96% at 45,577.47
• S&P 500 closed down 1.51% at 6,506.48
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 2.01% at 21,647.61
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.69% at 31,317.41
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.15% at 3,150.00
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 11 bps at 4.39%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 1.03% at 6,626.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.54% at 24,231
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 1.15% at 46,147

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.89% (0.52%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02989 (-1.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 963 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $32.30
• Total fees: 2.07 BTC / $142,462
• CME Futures Open Interest: 116,195 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 16 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.58%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied (expected) volatility index, BVIV, since October.
• BVIV has bounced to 59% from 53% on Wednesday, and further gains may be in the offing.
• That’s because the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) sits well above the 200-day SMA and is trending north. It shows that the near-term trend is up.
• Heightened volatility is usually a feature of a bear market.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Friday at $197.50 (-2.67%), -2.78% at $192 in pre-market
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $20.72 (-1.57%), -3.19% at $20.06
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.46 (-8.24%), -3.07% at $8.20
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $13.38 (-5.37%), -4.33% at $12.80
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.81 (-4.07%), -2.09% at $15.48
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.40 (-4.37%), -3.19% at $9.10
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $7.38 (-4.53%)
• CoinShares Bitcoin Mining ETF (WGMI): closed at $37.68 (-3.63%)
• Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $126.03 (-1.79%), -4.36% at $120.54
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $37.97 (-4.12%), -4.40% at $36.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $135.66 (-1.87%), -2.70% at $132.00
• Sharplink (SBET): closed at $7.40 (-3.65%), -4.46% at $7.07
• Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $10.02 (-2.34%), -3.79% at $9.64
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.06 (-0.93%), -6.59% at $0.99
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.17

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$52 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.21 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$42 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.76 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.69 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping