Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has revised his view of the CLARITY Act setback after Bitcoin rallied from $57,950 in July to above $80,000 before the Senate failed to advance the crypto market structure bill on Sept. 15.

Bitwise said in Hougan’sSept. 16 CIO memo that he no longer considers another six weeks of difficult crypto trading the most likely result after the legislation stalled, though his expectation that the current crypto rally can continue remains an investment outlook rather than a confirmed market outcome.

Hougan had previously compared the legislation to crypto’s “Punxsutawney Phil,” predicting a longer market winter if Congress failed to complete the bill. After reviewing Bitcoin’s price action and continued financial-sector product launches, he now describes the Senate setback as a “speed bump, not a roadblock.”

Bitcoin’s rally changed Hougan’s CLARITY outlook

Hougan’s revised position centers on Bitcoin’s performance while expectations for the legislation deteriorated. Bitwise data placed Bitcoin’s July 1 low near $57,950 before the asset climbed above $80,000 on Sept. 4. Over the same period, Bitwise said Polymarket pricing for the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 dropped from 39% to 18%.

Hougan argued that the opposing moves weakened his earlier assumption that passage was necessary for the market recovery to continue. The price relationship does not establish that declining legislative odds caused Bitcoin’s advance, and Bitwise did not present it as proof of future performance.

The Senate then rejected cloture on the motion to proceed with H.R. 3633 on Sept. 15. The official Senate roll call recorded 49 votes in favor and 50 against, with one senator not voting. Sixty votes were required to invoke cloture and move toward debate.

The action was not a final vote on passage. Republican Sens. Susan Collins, Josh Hawley, Jerry Moran and Thom Tillis voted against cloture. Tillis changed his vote after the outcome became clear, a procedural move that preserved the possibility of seeking reconsideration. No date for another Senate vote has been announced.

As crypto.news reported after the vote, the failure stopped the Senate from opening debate at that stage while leaving the legislation unresolved rather than formally defeated through a final passage vote.

Wall Street crypto projects continued before the Senate vote

Hougan cited several institutional developments to support his view that large financial companies have not waited for market structure legislation before building crypto products.

Robinhood launched the public mainnet of Robinhood Chain on July 1. The company describes the network as a permissionless, Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 built for financial services and tokenized assets. Its second-quarter regulatory filing confirms that Robinhood Chain moved from its February public testnet into mainnet during July.

Robinhood paired the launch with Stock Tokens for eligible users in more than 120 countries through Robinhood Wallet. Robinhood says approximately 200 stock tokens were available by September.

Morgan Stanley’s Solana product had moved even further than an application by the time of Hougan’s memo. The SEC declared the Morgan Stanley Solana Trust registration effective on July 23, and Morgan Stanley Investment Management formally launched the MSOL product on NYSE Arca on July 28 alongside its Ether product, MSSE.

Morgan Stanley said both exchange-traded products charge a 0.14% sponsor fee and seek exposure to SOL and Ether, with staking incorporated into their structures. Crypto.news reported on the July launch, correcting earlier descriptions of Morgan Stanley as merely seeking approval for a Solana fund.

DTCC supplied another example. On July 15, the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation processed live production transactions using securities converted into DTC-tokenized assets. The transactions included equity trades, U.S. Treasury and repo activity, securities lending, collateral pledges and token transfers.

DTCC said roughly 40 firms participated in the production event, which came ahead of the planned October 2026 launch of its Tokenization Service. In related coverage, crypto.news reported that participants included firms such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other financial institutions.

SEC and CFTC rulemaking can continue without the bill

Hougan’s second argument concerns regulatory authority already held by the SEC and CFTC. He characterized the current leadership of both agencies as supportive of crypto-market development and said companies have taken comfort from that policy direction. His description of the agencies as “pro-crypto” is Bitwise’s characterization, not a statutory classification.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has separately said congressional legislation remains preferable because agency rules can later be changed. In an Aug. 18 statement, Atkins called legislation “indispensable” for creating rules durable enough to survive a future change in regulatory leadership.

The SEC has nevertheless started its own rulemaking. Its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, published Aug. 18, would create tailored exemptions for certain investment-contract offerings involving crypto assets and a conditional safe harbor addressing when a crypto asset would no longer be treated as subject to an investment contract. The proposal remains open for public comment through Oct. 20 and is not a final rule.

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig took a similar position after the Senate vote. In a Sept. 16 statement reported by The Block, Selig said the agency was “locked in and ready to ship its rules for the new frontier of finance” using its existing statutory authority.

The CFTC had already created an Innovation Task Force in March to work on crypto assets, blockchain, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. Selig said at the time that the group would coordinate with the SEC while developing rules within the commission’s existing mandate.

Agency authority still has limits. Hougan acknowledged that only Congress can provide the CFTC with the full spot-market jurisdiction contemplated by the CLARITY Act. Administrative rules can face court challenges and may be amended or reversed by future commissions, while legislation would create a different level of statutory permanence.

Former CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo similarly said the two agencies could continue writing rules within existing authority while Congress remains divided.

Bitcoin fell after the vote as macro pressure increased

Markets reacted negatively immediately after the Senate action. Reuters reported Bitcoin falling roughly 4% to around $75,908, while Coinbase and Circle shares dropped close to 9% as investors reacted to the failure to advance the bill.

Crypto derivatives markets recorded another layer of selling. Crypto.news reported that exchanges liquidated roughly $571 million in long positions over 24 hours, including close to $190 million each in Bitcoin and Ether longs.

Hougan said the legislative result was not the only factor affecting prices. His memo cited interest-rate and oil concerns as possible contributors to the decline, while describing additional volatility as a risk to his bullish investment thesis.

The macro backdrop changed again on Sept. 16 when the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. Reuters reported that the unanimous decision came as policymakers responded to persistent inflation and rising energy costs, with most officials projecting at least one more increase during 2026.

By Sept. 17, CoinGecko showed Bitcoin near $76,274, up roughly 0.5% over 24 hours but down around 2.1% over seven days. The price remained well above Bitwise’s $57,950 July starting point while trading below the early-September level above $80,000.

Hougan’s expectation that the crypto bull market can continue without the CLARITY Act remains Bitwise’s market forecast. The SEC’s Regulation Crypto Assets proposal is still accepting comments through Oct. 20, while the Senate has not scheduled another cloture vote on H.R. 3633.

Cornyn’s allies continued the persuasion campaign after the primary, which advanced the senator and Paxton to a runoff. According to a White House aide, Thune spent hours on the phone with Trump after the primary, trying in vain to persuade him to endorse Cornyn in the runoff. For more than two months, Trump resisted choosing between them. By May, however, Paxton had pulled decisively ahead. Trump’s own pollsters concluded that even his endorsement was unlikely to save Cornyn. Trump finally endorsed Paxton a week before the runoff, and took credit for the victory. 

Since then, Paxton has struggled to raise funds necessary for a competitive Senate race in one of the nation’s largest states. Neither the Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Thune, nor MAGA Inc., run by LaCivita, was eager to fill the gap. Despite its enormous cash reserves, by late August, MAGA Inc. had spent just $800,000 overall; its most conspicuous intervention was to help Darline Graham win the Republican nomination to succeed her late brother, Lindsey Graham, in South Carolina. 

Cryptocurrencies rallied after the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest-rate increase since July 2023, a counterintuitive reaction given the FOMC decision makes interest-bearing investments more attractive.

Bitcoin added almost 1% over the past 24 hours while zcash (ZEC) jumped by more than 23% to a record high.

Traders who remember previous Fed rate cycles, especially 2022, are likely to be cautious, however.

Bitcoin is currently about 40% below its October record high of $126,000. When the Fed began tightening in March 2022, it was also roughly 40% below its record high, the November 2021 peak.

Zcash rose more than 17% to nearly $1,358 as of Asian morning hours Thursday, far ahead of every other major, according to CoinDesk data.

Solana and hyperliquid each added about 3%, with BNB, dogecoin and ether up roughly 2%. Bitcoin climbed 1% to just above $76,400, XRP the same, and tron was flat.

The Fed raised its target range by a quarter point to 375 to 400 basis points on Wednesday, its first hike of the cycle after markets had priced the move at roughly 69% going in. Bitcoin barely moved on the decision. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email that bitcoin had already “overreacted negatively” to the CLARITY Act failing in the Senate this week, leaving it less exposed to a stronger dollar.

Some 86,816 traders were liquidated over 24 hours for a combined $345 million, per CoinGlass. Liquidation is when an exchange force-closes a leveraged position because the trader’s collateral no longer covers the loss. Shorts made up $208 million of that against $137 million of longs, so most of the pain landed on traders betting prices would fall.

Ether led at nearly $89 million, bitcoin at $85 million and zcash at $56 million. The largest single order was an $18 million bitcoin position closed on Hyperliquid.

Zcash produced $56 million of liquidations on a market capitalization of $23 billion. Watch whether that leverage rebuilds through Thursday, because it has fuelled every leg of this run.

Key takeaways

• XRP’s long-to-short ratio stands at a bullish 1.06 as funding rates turn negative. 
• XRP holds above its 50-day and 100-day EMAs at $1.284 and $1.255.
• A daily close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 could place $1.90 in focus.

XRP extended its recoveries on Thursday after finding support at important technical levels. However, conflicting funding rates, long-to-short positioning, and on-chain signals indicate that traders remain uncertain about whether the rebounds can continue.

XRP traded near $1.30 while holding above its 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages. A close above the 200-day EMA at $1.353 is required to strengthen its recovery.

XRP traders show mixed positioning

XRP’s long-to-short ratio rose to 1.06 on Thursday, approaching its highest level in more than a month, according to CoinGlass.

A ratio above one means traders hold more long positions than shorts, signaling a moderately bullish positioning bias.

Funding rates complicate the derivatives outlook for both tokens. XRP’s funding rate turned negative on Wednesday and stood at -0.0040% on Thursday. 

Negative funding means short-position holders are paying longs, indicating that bearish positioning has become more aggressive.

This conflicts with XRP’s bullish long-to-short ratio and highlights the lack of consensus among futures traders.

CryptoQuant’s summary indicators point to cautious conditions across XRP’s spot and futures markets.

XRP is showing signs of overheating, while its futures market reflects sell-side dominance. Increased activity from retail traders could also introduce additional volatility if leveraged positions become crowded.

Taken together, the metrics suggest that XRP has not attracted enough consistent demand to confirm a sustained recovery.

XRP holds above the $1.25–$1.28 support zone

XRP traded near $1.30 on Thursday, maintaining a neutral and range-bound technical structure. The token remains slightly above its 50-day EMA at $1.284 and its 100-day EMA at $1.255. These moving averages create a broader demand zone between approximately $1.25 and $1.28.

The Relative Strength Index stands near 46, signaling neutral-to-weak momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator remains below zero, showing that bullish pressure has yet to recover fully.

A break below the moving-average support cluster could expose the psychological $1 level.

The 200-day EMA at $1.353 represents XRP’s most important near-term resistance. A daily close above this level would improve the technical outlook and could open a path toward the next major horizontal resistance near $1.90.

Failure to clear $1.353 would keep XRP trapped within its current range and leave the $1.30 area vulnerable to another pullback.

Revolut says it has received no direct messages from the hackers publicly demanding a ransom over a customer data breach, even as multiple groups compete for credit and threaten further disclosures.

A faction using the name “IAmNotAVillain” demanded 6,000 Monero (XMR)—worth about $3 million—within 24 hours, according to a report by the Financial Times. On Thursday, a Revolut spokesperson told Cointelegraph that the company has not received any direct contact or demand from the individuals behind those claims.

Key takeaways

• Revolut confirms it has not received direct communication from “IAmNotAVillain” despite public ransom threats.
• A rival claimant (“Revolut Smilik”) previously circulated a far larger Bitcoin demand, widening uncertainty over who controls the stolen data.
• Investigators in Italy are broadening the probe because the suspected intrusion involves an alleged compromise or cloning of a government email account.
• Regulators are pressing banks to review access security, suggesting the issue may extend beyond a single breach channel.

Competing ransom claims muddy attribution

Revolut’s lack of direct contact matters because public ultimatums do not automatically indicate which party actually holds the data, how much has been extracted, or whether the threat is actionable. In this case, “IAmNotAVillain” is only one name attached to online claims related to the breach.

Cointelegraph previously reported that Revolut disclosed the incident last week and tied its exposure to alleged access obtained using a fake government email account. When Cointelegraph attempted to check the “IAmNotAVillain” website, iamnotavillain.xyz, it was unavailable at the time of publication.

Adding further ambiguity, an earlier group calling itself “Revolut Smilik” reportedly made a demand of 10,000 Bitcoin (about $780 million at the time), a figure dramatically larger than the later XMR demand reported by the Financial Times.

In a notice on its site, “IAmNotAVillain” disputed the competing claim, alleging that a former associate had received only a small sample of the data before taking credit for the breach. The site also warned other parties not to “deal” with the rival claimant—an escalation that typically reflects internal disputes among actors rather than proof of control over the full dataset.

Meanwhile, a cybersecurity-focused account, Dark Web Informer, also flagged another website—revoloot.lol—as associated with a separate actor claiming responsibility. That site was also unavailable when checked by Cointelegraph. Together, these competing claims make it difficult for outside observers to confidently map which group is operating the extortion pipeline.

Why Revolut’s response is significant for customers and markets

Extortion incidents increasingly unfold as a chain of claims, samples, and retractions across multiple domains—often making it hard to determine whether a victim’s infrastructure can be directly negotiated with. Revolut’s statement that it has not received any direct contact suggests the company cannot yet validate that the public demand corresponds to a party willing or able to engage with the organization privately.

For affected customers, this distinction matters because it affects expectations around mitigation. Direct communications can sometimes include specifics about the data or the steps required to verify deletion. Without that channel, customer-impact assessments and remediation efforts rely more heavily on forensic findings than on attacker instructions.

For the broader crypto audience, the ransom component underscores how extortion ecosystems increasingly mix anonymity-preserving assets such as Monero with shifting claimant identities. In practice, the exact asset and headline valuation can change faster than the underlying breach details—particularly when multiple groups are signaling from the sidelines.

Italy expands the investigation beyond a single victim

While the extortion messaging continues online, the law-enforcement angle is also deepening. According to Italian news agency ANSA reported on Wednesday, Italy’s National Anti-Mafia and Anti-Terrorism Directorate has become involved because the suspected intrusion appears to concern a government entity.

Prosecutors in Reggio Calabria have opened an investigation into unauthorized access to a computer system of public interest. Investigators are working to determine whether the institutional email account was breached outright or cloned—an important technical distinction that can affect both accountability and how the wider ecosystem was targeted.

Italy’s privacy regulator has also asked banks to urgently review the security of their access systems. The regulator is separately examining whether other banks or financial institutions may have been affected, implying that the breach method may not have been isolated to Revolut’s environment.

Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that the investigation centers on a government email account allegedly used to obtain customer data. With multiple claimant narratives still unfolding online, the official inquiry remains a key reference point for what investigators can substantiate about the intrusion path.

What to watch next

Investors, security teams, and customers should watch for two developments: whether Italian investigators can confirm the mechanism behind the government email compromise or cloning, and whether any attacker claim evolves into verifiable direct contact with Revolut or corroborating evidence about the amount and scope of the exposed data.

South Korean police have reportedly referred 18 Polymarket users to prosecutors in an illegal gambling investigation involving 26 people who collectively wagered about 17.6 billion won (worth $12.7 million). 

According to Asia Economy, data submitted by the National Police Agency to the office of Democratic Party lawmaker Yoon Kun-young showed that the Gangwon Provincial Police Agency had placed 26 people under investigation as of Tuesday and sent 18 of them to prosecutors. The report said the largest amount wagered by a single user was about 5.7 billion won ($4.1 million).

Police identified users by analyzing publicly available blockchain transactions, the report said. Polymarket lets users buy and sell contracts tied to the outcomes of real-world events and operates on a noncustodial, peer-to-peer structure with automated settlement. It does not maintain a conventional list of users by their real names, the report said. 

Authorities reportedly said Polymarket transactions constitute illegal gambling under South Korea’s Criminal Act because users stake assets on outcomes that cannot be predicted with certainty. The users argued that Polymarket should instead be treated as a crypto-based derivatives investment market, according to the report.

South Korea moves against Polymarket

In June, Gangwon police launched South Korea’s first illegal gambling probe into local Polymarket users at the request of the National Police Agency. On Aug. 18, South Korean authorities moved to block Polymarket after determining that the prediction market provided an illegal gambling environment to users in the country. 

The country’s media and communications review commission said the platform’s winner-takes-all structure encouraged speculative gambling, citing Polymarket’s role in operating markets, setting trading rules, providing crypto deposits, withdrawals, and settlement and collecting transaction fees. 

Related: CFTC, US soldier accused of illegal Polymarket bet spar over interpretation of prediction markets

Polymarket argued that it did not provide Korean-language services or support payments in Korean won and that its noncustodial transactions and use of smart contracts meant it did not directly manage user funds. The commission rejected the argument, saying technical characteristics did not exempt a service from South Korean law.

Tae-Lim Kim, managing attorney at AXIS Law, told Asia Economy that the transactions could meet the legal requirements for gambling. He said describing them as prediction derivatives would be difficult to use as a direct defense in criminal proceedings, although the ability to trade contracts and exit positions before settlement could be relevant to a court’s assessment.

Magazine: Revolut ID thefts highlight KYC’s dangers: Here’s how to fix it

Z.ai forecast

H100 CEO Eirik Grøttum has increased his exposure to the Swedish Bitcoin treasury company through purchases totaling 407,163 shares for SEK 621,887, while H100 continues to report 3,506.4 BTC on its balance sheet.

H100 Group said in its Sept. 17 primary-insider disclosure that Kode Oslo AS carried out the purchases, with 405,663 shares acquired on Sept. 15 at an average SEK 1.53 and another 1,500 shares acquired on Aug. 19 at SEK 1.40. The combined average price was SEK 1.53 per share.

H100 CEO purchase lifts related holdings above 5.3 million

Kode Oslo now owns 2,771,787 H100 shares following the disclosed transactions. Grøttum serves on Kode Oslo’s board, owns 20% of the company and participates in its investment decisions, according to H100’s regulated notice.

A second associated entity, Olav Grøttum Holding AS, owns another 2,627,677 H100 shares. Grøttum owns that company entirely. Combined, the two businesses hold 5,399,464 H100 shares after the latest purchases.

The transaction concerns shares in H100 Group, not a new Bitcoin purchase by the company. H100’s disclosed Bitcoin position therefore remains separate from the CEO-related equity purchase.

Grøttum became H100’s chief executive on Aug. 11, one day after the company completed its large Norwegian Bitcoin-related acquisition. He previously served as CEO of Moonshot AS and had worked with H100 Chief Investment Officer Peter C. Warren managing Bitcoin holdings belonging to Geir Harald Hansen through Moonshot.

H100 said Grøttum’s background covers software development, quantitative trading, asset management and fintech. His appointment moved former CEO Johannes Wiik back into the chief operating officer role.

H100 still reports a 3,506.4 BTC treasury

H100’s latest company disclosures continue to place its treasury at 3,506.4 BTC. The position increased sharply on Aug. 10 when H100 completed its acquisition of NSD AS, which through a reorganization held Moonshot AS and PDI AS.

The transaction brought 2,455.37 BTC into the group, taking H100 from 1,051.03 BTC at the end of June to 3,506.4 BTC. H100 said the acquired companies had no outstanding financial debt.

No cash was paid for that acquisition. H100 issued 790,534,666 new shares to the sellers at SEK 1.86 each, representing consideration of approximately SEK 1.47 billion. The new shares increased H100’s outstanding share count to 1,128,931,358 immediately after the transaction.

The share issue represented roughly 70% of H100’s outstanding shares after closing. Geir Harald Hansen received a controlling position of approximately 69.2% through 781,676,551 shares following the deal, according to H100’s interim report.

H100 described the transaction as “the largest M&A transaction ever completed in the European Public Bitcoin Equity sector” and the first public-market acquisition completed on a Bitcoin-for-Bitcoin basis. Those descriptions are company claims and were not independently established across all European and global public-market transactions.

As crypto.news previously reported, the agreed valuation used Bitcoin at SEK 598,926.69, roughly $62,900, based on the Coinbase BTC/SEK spot price at the specified July 31 reference time. The figure was an acquisition valuation benchmark, not an open-market purchase price for 2,455.37 BTC.

Bitcoin exposure has become central to H100’s balance sheet

H100 began its Bitcoin treasury strategy on a much smaller scale. Its first purchase in May 2025 involved 4.39 BTC, after which the company raised equity and convertible financing to build its holdings.

By June 30, 2026, the company held 1,051.03 BTC before the Norwegian acquisition nearly tripled that amount. H100 describes itself as a technology company serving health and longevity providers while running an active Bitcoin treasury strategy.

The Bitcoin exposure has made H100’s reported earnings sensitive to cryptocurrency prices. Its second-quarter report showed an operating loss of SEK 88.7 million and a pre-tax loss of SEK 98.2 million. H100 said SEK 93.3 million of the pre-tax loss consisted of items that did not affect cash flow.

For the first half of 2026, the company reported a SEK 253.6 million pre-tax loss, while operating cash flow was negative SEK 12.7 million. Its equity ratio stood at 86% at June 30.

As crypto.news reported after the results, much of the quarterly accounting loss was linked to a non-cash write-down associated with Bitcoin’s lower valuation during the reporting period.

Grøttum wrote in the interim report that simply raising funds to accumulate Bitcoin was “unlikely to be sufficient on its own” for treasury companies. He said H100 planned to use capital allocation, capital-markets activity, acquisitions and operating cash flow alongside its Bitcoin holdings. The statement describes management’s strategy and does not guarantee future returns.

H100 is considering future share buybacks

The insider purchase follows a separate H100 announcement on Sept. 16 concerning new Swedish share-repurchase rules. Starting Dec. 5, Swedish public companies whose shares trade on multilateral trading facilities will be permitted to repurchase and hold their own shares. The change covers NGM Nordic SME, where H100 trades.

Grøttum said repurchases could become one of several capital-allocation options, particularly when H100 shares trade below net asset value. His comments describe a potential future tool, not an announced repurchase program.

H100 explicitly said no decision has been taken to repurchase its own shares. Any future program would require authorization from shareholders followed by a board resolution and disclosure under the applicable rules. The company’s Sept. 17 insider filing did not announce a change to its Bitcoin treasury, leaving the latest disclosed balance at 3,506.4 BTC.