Strategy’s BTC sale sends Polymarket into disarray

The sale of 32 bitcoin (BTC) by Michael Saylor’s Strategy (formerly Microstrategy) has led to a dispute among Polymarket users who’ve been betting on whether or not the company would sell any of its BTC by May 31, 2026.

A Securities and Exchange Commission filing revealed that Strategy sold the BTC (despite Saylor’s promises to never sell) between May 26 and May 31.

However, the firm’s Form 8-K wasn’t filed until June 1.

Before the filing was noted, the market had a proposed outcome of “No.” It then resolved to “No” again, after the original outcome was disputed.

Some UMA tokenholders in Discord attempted to justify the decision by pointing out that the announcement came after the market deadline, despite the market explicitly referring to when the sale occurs, not when it’s announced.

Needless to say, the decision by UMA token holders is controversial.

This second “No” outcome has also been disputed, and we are now in the “final review” window.

Polymarket itself has added a note to the market that says, “No information from MSTR, on-chain data, or consensus of credible reporting confirmed that MicroStrategy sold BTC within the market’s timeframe. Confirmation achieved outside of the market’s time frame does not qualify.”

Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?

Similar disputes have popped up on Polymarket before. One prominent example was dubbed “Suitgate” and centered around whether or not an outfit that Volodymyr Zelenskyy wore to a NATO meeting counted as a suit.

Despite multiple outlets describing it as a suit, UMA tokenholders were reluctant to consider it as such, and it resolved to “No.”

In another example, Polymarket created a market that was meant to determine whether or not the Elon Musk-connected Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) would “cut $3 billion of DEI contracts before March.”

The rules for this market explicitly pointed to whether or not “doge-tracker.com” showed that amount or more in cuts.

That website did show more than $3 billion in cuts, but this display was rooted in lies propagated by DOGE, and so Polymarket and UMA holders were placed between the explicit resolution criteria and reality.

Broadly, this Strategy market controversy combines with the previous failures of Polymarket resolution to undermine Polymarket’s tether to reality.

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