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Sundial CEO on Institutional Crypto Strategy and Flight to Quality

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Sundial CEO on Institutional Crypto Strategy and Flight to Quality

After reaching an all-time high of roughly $4 trillion in total market value in October, crypto markets have entered one of their sharpest corrections in years.

Bitcoin, which peaked near $126,000 during the rally, has since retraced to the low $60,000 range. Billions of dollars in leveraged positions have been liquidated, open interest has contracted sharply from late-year highs, and liquidity across trading venues has thinned. ETF flows have turned negative, reinforcing a broader phase of institutional de-risking.

The speed of the unwind has revived a familiar question: when volatility spikes and liquidity compresses, how do institutions actually respond?

How Institutional Capital Responds to Volatility

For Sheldon Hunt, the pullback tells a different story than the headlines suggest. As founder and CEO of Sundial, a Bitcoin Layer-2 protocol targeting institutional participation, he sees institutions simplifying their exposure instead of abandoning it.

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“When you see volatility like this, what pulls back first is risk, exposure, and complexity,” Hunt told BeInCrypto during our conversation at Liquidity Summit 2026 in Hong Kong, further adding:

“Institutions are not necessarily cutting all exposure. They are consolidating. They go back to basics.”

That return to basics, Hunt says, is best understood as a flight to quality.

When volatility spikes, institutions tend to reduce exposure to more complex or risk-centric applications. Rather than chasing new strategies, they narrow their focus. He added:

“You can pull back on some of these complexities, variants like DeFi. You want to get back to something like the basics.”

Wallet Activity as a Market Barometer

In addition to allocation shifts, Hunt also watches on-chain behavior for early signs of stress.

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“Wallets generally don’t lie,” he said, describing wallet activity as one of the clearest barometers of market health.

During volatile periods, he observes assets moving off exchanges and DeFi platforms and reconsolidating into fewer wallets. That movement, he argues, reflects caution rather than capitulation.

Hunt does not view the current shift as a brief pause. In his assessment, the market is operating under real liquidity strain.

“We’re living in it right now,” he said. “There are certainly constraints around liquidity these days. People are quite nervous.”

He points to volatility across broader markets and tightening financial conditions as reinforcing that caution. For institutional capital, that environment changes the tempo of decision-making.

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Hunt believes that capital allocators are likely to proceed more cautiously under current liquidity constraints. 

“There’s still a real possibility that this is the beginning of a fairly nasty bear market that could go on for potentially two or more years,” he said.

If the downturn extends, timing matters less than resilience. Allocators focus on maintaining exposure without introducing additional fragility. He described the current phase as “minimizing risk exposure and looking to be in it for the long run.”

Evaluating Yield Through an Institutional Lens

That framing also informs how institutions approach Bitcoin yield.

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Hunt said one of the most common misconceptions is that institutions are primarily focused on maximizing returns. In practice, he argued, that assumption does not reflect how professional allocators operate.

According to Hunt, professional allocators are unlikely to pursue 20% or 30% yields on their Bitcoin if those returns depend on layered complexity or unclear counterparty structures.

“The reality is that institutions are focused on minimizing risk,” he said. “Stable and secure yield over the long run, even 1% or 2%, is far more aligned with their mandates.”

In practical terms, that shapes how products are evaluated. Yield levels alone are not the deciding factor. Custody arrangements, settlement mechanics, and downside scenarios tend to carry more weight in internal reviews.

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Despite the growing conversation around Bitcoin-native finance, Hunt believes meaningful institutional deployment remains limited. Hunt added:

“There’s this idea that there’s all of this Bitcoin out there, it’s all sloshing around. The reality is that we have seen very little Bitcoin being put to work on DeFi or being put to work in either the protocols or layer-2s.”

A large share of BTC continues to sit in long-term custody. For Hunt, that signals that the infrastructure layer is still developing rather than saturated.

“It’s still early days,” he said. “The best days of Bitcoin are very much ahead of it. The best days of DeFi are ahead of it. There’s still so much more to be untapped.”

The slower pace of institutional participation, in his view, reflects how risk is assessed. Before capital moves into structured yield environments, questions around custody control, settlement assurance, and exposure concentration must be addressed in ways that align with existing mandates.

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Custody, Control, and the Next Cycle

Looking toward the next cycle, Hunt expects architecture to matter more than surface-level features.

“I’m of the very firm belief that in this next cycle, a big priority is going to be around non-custodial options,” he said, pointing specifically to non-custodial staking and settlement models that account for custodial risk.

In his view, institutions want clarity over who controls assets at every stage of the process. In practice, that means retaining unilateral authority over settlement and custody. The crypto industry has long championed the idea of being one’s own bank. For institutional allocators, that principle shows up less as ideology and more as governance architecture. The next phase of adoption will depend on whether that architecture can satisfy traditional risk frameworks.

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Volume in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump’s market-turning post

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Volume in stock, oil futures surged minutes before Trump's market-turning post

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2026.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

S&P 500 futures and oil futures flashed an unusual burst of activity early Monday minutes before a market-moving social media post from President Donald Trump.

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At around 6:50 a.m. in New York, S&P 500 e-Mini futures trading on the CME recorded a sharp and isolated jump in volume, breaking from an otherwise subdued premarket backdrop. With thin liquidity typical of early trading hours, the sudden burst stood out as one of the largest volume moments of the session up to that point.

A similar pattern was observed in oil markets. West Texas Intermediate May futures also saw a noticeable pickup in trading activity at roughly the same time, with a distinct volume spike interrupting otherwise quiet conditions.

Roughly 15 minutes later, at 7:05 a.m., Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held talks and that he was halting planned strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure. That announcement prompted an instant rally in risk assets, with S&P 500 futures soaring more than 2.5% before the opening bell. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped nearly 6% following the announcement.

The timing of the earlier volume spikes across both equities and crude caught the attention of traders, particularly given the absence of an obvious catalyst at the moment they occurred.

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Early-morning futures markets are typically less liquid, which can make short bursts of buying and selling more noticeable than during regular trading hours. Still, the trades raised some eyebrows because whoever purchased a large amount of stock futures and sold or shorted crude futures at that moment made a lot of money just minutes later.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CME Group didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

Algorithmic and macro-driven strategies can also generate rapid flows across asset classes without a single identifiable catalyst in early trading.

— With assistance from CNBC’s Fred Imbert.

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Senate Bill Targets Sports-Betting Ban on Crypto Prediction Markets

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Crypto Breaking News

A bipartisan effort in Washington is gearing up to curb the use of CFTC-regulated prediction markets for sports betting and casino-style contracts, intensifying a broader regulatory push around these platforms. The move comes as lawmakers weigh how to balance potential innovation with consumer protection and state gaming prerogatives.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis are expected to unveil a measure on Monday that would bar listing sports bets and other casino-style contracts on prediction markets regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The authors of the bill argue that such activities should be governed at the state level rather than under federal oversight. “Too many young people in Utah are getting exposed to addictive sports betting and casino-style gaming contracts that belong under state control, not under federal regulators,” Curtis told the WSJ.

In a related development, Schiff has already introduced the DEATH BETS Act, which seeks to prohibit CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual death. The bill text was released on March 10, and represents a more targeted expansion of the same policy impulse that informs the forthcoming bipartisan measure.

For readers tracking the broader regulatory arc, the evolving stance toward prediction markets intersects with renewed insider-trading concerns amid geopolitical volatility and a growing appetite in Congress to constrain markets tied to volatile events.

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Key takeaways

  • Lawmakers are preparing a bipartisan bill to bar CFTC-regulated prediction markets from listing sports betting and casino-style contracts, signaling a potential tightening of federal oversight.
  • Senator John Curtis frames the move as protecting state sovereignty over gambling policy, while Senator Schiff’s DEATH BETS Act targets contracts linked to war, terrorism, assassination, and individual death.
  • Sports-related contracts dominate activity on prediction-market platforms, with Dune data showing nearly half of Polymarket’s weekly notional volume and a substantial majority for Kalshi stemming from sports bets.
  • CFTC activity is ramping up, including a staff advisory classifying event contracts as a financial asset class and an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking that could reshape how the CEA applies to these markets.
  • Judicial and regulatory developments across Ohio and Nevada illustrate ongoing friction between federal authority and state gambling laws, creating a rapidly shifting risk landscape for operators and users.

Bipartisan bid targets prediction markets

The forthcoming bill, described by sources as a bipartisan initiative, would bar listing sports betting and “casino-style” contracts on prediction markets that fall under CFTC regulation. If enacted, the proposal would add a significant federal constraint at a moment when prediction-market platforms are expanding offerings beyond traditional politics and current events into entertainment and sports-oriented contracts. The aim, as outlined by Curtis, is to keep certain activities within state purview while reducing exposure to what lawmakers view as harmful or addictive products.

The DEATH BETS Act, introduced by Schiff, takes a similarly restrictive stance but with a focused scope on contracts tied to deadly human events. The combination of these measures underscores a broader shift in how policymakers are approaching the intersection of prediction markets, risk, and public policy. Schiff’s office released the bill text, and the proposal is expected to shape conversations around the future of these markets in the federal legislative agenda.

Regulatory push broadens beyond Congress

Beyond proposed legislation, the regulatory climate for prediction markets has intensified in recent weeks. The CFTC, which oversees designated contract markets (DCMs) like Polymarket and Kalshi, issued a staff advisory on March 12 that classifies event contracts as a “financial asset class.” In parallel, the agency released an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to solicit input on how the Commodity Exchange Act should apply to prediction markets, signaling a potential overhaul of the regulatory framework governing these platforms.

These moves come amid a broader debate over federal versus state authority in the sector. While CFTC Chair Michael Seligman has argued that prediction markets fall under federal jurisdiction, lower courts have started to scrutinize that claim. An Ohio court ruling in early March found that Kalshi had not shown the CEA would necessarily preempt Ohio’s sports-gambling laws or that its contracts fell under the CFTC’s exclusive domain. Separately, a Nevada judge temporarily blocked Kalshi from offering sports, election, and entertainment event contracts for 14 days, citing the likelihood of violating state gambling statutes.

The regulatory climate thus blends rulemaking, judicial testing of preemption, and legislative action, creating a complex backdrop for operators as they navigate product design, compliance, and potential market exits or pivots. Kalshi and Polymarket remain under CFTC oversight as DCMS, but the ongoing legal and policy struggle injects a notable degree of uncertainty for market participants.

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Sports markets drive trading volume and attention

Despite the policy spotlight, the economics of prediction markets continue to be driven by fast-moving event contracts—particularly in sports. Data from Dune Analytics highlights how sports bets dominate activity on major platforms. Polymarket’s weekly notional volume was heavily skewed toward sports contracts, accounting for about 47.7% of the week’s notional volume, while Kalshi’s sports-related contracts represented roughly 78.8% of its weekly activity. In raw figures, sports betting contributed approximately $1.2 billion in weekly notional trading for Polymarket and about $2.6 billion for Kalshi.

For investors and users, that concentration matters. A regulatory clampdown that constrains sports-related products could materially reduce liquidity, alter price discovery, and shift user interest toward other categories or away from prediction markets altogether. Operators might respond by adjusting product lines, tightening risk controls, or seeking additional state-level licenses to preserve some degree of activity within a more defined legal perimeter.

State and federal lines sharpened by courts and regulators

The tension between federal supervision and state-level gaming law has sharpened as courts weigh in on the reach of the CEA and the CFTC’s jurisdiction. The Ohio ruling suggested that federal preemption may not be as certain in practice as asserted in some regulatory circles, while Nevada’s temporary injunction against Kalshi underscores how state regulators can effectively pause or limit activity that touches local gambling statutes. These rulings do not settle the policy debate, but they do provide a glimpse into how turning points in law and regulation could shape the trajectory of prediction markets in the United States.

Meanwhile, the CFTC’s latest moves—namely the advisory and the open docket for public feedback—signal that the agency intends to be a central actor in shaping what is permissible. Market participants should monitor how the agency balances innovation with consumer protections and how courts continue to interpret the relationship between federal regulation and state gambling laws.

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What happens next and why it matters

The unfolding story has clear implications for traders, developers, and investors in the prediction-market space. If Congress passes a bill restricting sports betting and casino-style contracts on CFTC-regulated markets, liquidity and product breadth could shrink, potentially pushing users toward state-regulated venues or other platforms with narrower offerings. Conversely, continued regulatory and judicial caution could preserve a larger role for prediction markets in information markets, research, and hedging across political and non-political events, albeit under tighter rules.

As lawmakers prepare to introduce the bipartisan measure and as CFTC rulemaking and court decisions proceed, industry participants should brace for a period of continued policy flux. The outcome will likely influence capital flows, platform strategies, and the pace at which prediction markets evolve from novelty to established financial infrastructure.

Readers should watch the forthcoming bill’s language, committee actions, and any amendments, alongside the CFTC’s rulemaking timetable and related court decisions. The convergence of policy, law, and market dynamics in the coming months will help define the operating landscape for prediction markets in the United States.

In the meantime, the market’s sensitivity to regulatory signals remains high, and investors should prepare for shifts in liquidity and product offerings as the regulatory framework takes clearer shape.

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Bitcoin Traders Warn BTC Price Bear Market Is Set to Resume Toward $46K

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis

Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to close the week above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) on Sunday put it at risk of another downward leg over the coming weeks or months.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin price signals “structural weakness” with failure to close week above a key trend line.

  • Analysts say the next breakdown clears path for another sell-off toward $46,000.

  • The $47,000 level features as a deep structural support for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin price weakness sparks sub-$50,000 targets

Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD trading at $71,190, or 6% higher than its intraday low of $67,300.

The pair had failed to produce a weekly close above the 200-weekly EMA on Sunday, currently at $68,300, suggesting that last week’s relief rally to $76,000 was a possible bull trap.

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Market Analysis
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

There is evidence of profit-taking every time Bitcoin rises to key accumulation levels, and commenting on the current market setup, many traders warned that any downside could snowball quickly.

Related: Bitcoin risks 50% drop as BTC’s positive correlation with US stocks grows

“$BTC broke down from the rising wedge over the weekend,” said analyst Jelle in a Monday post on X, adding:

“Consolidate here for a day or two, and those untapped lows look ripe for the taking.”

The analyst was referring to the area between the local low of $65,500 and the range low of $59,930 reached on Feb. 6.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Jelle

“BTC has lost the EMA50 once again, and the global crisis feels more insecure today than it did 2 weeks ago,” fellow analyst Stockmoney Lizards said in the latest Bitcoin analysis on X.

Combined with the technical weakness, “it looks like we could be revisiting the sub-$60K area,” the analyst added.

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“Bitcoin is getting close to taking that next leg lower into the mid-$40Ks,” analyst Michael J. Kramer said, referring to the measured target of a bear flag around $46,600.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Michael J. Kramer

These targets echo prediction market traders, who price in a 70% chance that Bitcoin drops below $55,000 in 2026, while placing the odds of a drop below $45,000 at 46%. 

“Deep structural” support for BTC is at $47,000

Bitcoin is trading near the 200-week EMA at $68,300, coinciding with the realized price of the “largest holder cohort (100-1K BTC),” according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr.

“As long as the price holds above $68K, the largest cohort remains near its cost basis and maintains a more resilient position,” Adler Jr. said in a Bitcoin analysis on Monday, adding:

“A move below this level would signal deteriorating structure and increase the likelihood of a more nervous reaction from large holders.”

Bitcoin realized price balance of 10-100 vs 100-1K. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, the realized price of the 10-100 BTC holder cohort sits notably lower around $46,700, forming a “deep structural threshold that would become meaningful only in the event of a full-scale deterioration in market regime,” the analyst added.