Goldman Sachs has renewed institutional focus on XRP after disclosing a $153 million investment in XRP ETFs, alongside major allocations to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.

Goldman Sachs’ XRP exposure draws attention

The disclosure, highlighted by journalist Eleanor Terrett, places the Ripple token (XRP) among a select group of digital assets held at scale by one of Wall Street’s most influential banks.

The timing of the revelation is notable. Goldman has representation at a White House meeting centered on stablecoin yield policy, underscoring its role in shaping regulatory discussions.

CEO David Solomon is also scheduled to speak at the World Liberty Financial forum next week, reinforcing the firm’s growing public engagement with digital asset markets.

While ETF exposure does not directly translate into spot demand, the move adds credibility to XRP’s institutional narrative at a time when regulatory clarity remains a key market catalyst.

XRP price analysis and near-term outlook

XRP is currently trading near $1.37, reflecting continued consolidation after a sharp sell-off earlier this month.

TradingView data shows the token struggling to reclaim key short-term moving averages, indicating that bullish momentum remains fragile. The Relative Strength Index is still positioned below the neutral 50 level, signaling muted buying pressure and cautious trader sentiment.

Price action suggests that the $1.30–$1.32 region is acting as a critical support zone. A breakdown below this area could open the door to a deeper retracement toward $1.20, where buyers may attempt to re-enter.

On the upside, XRP would need a sustained move above $1.45–$1.50 to confirm a shift in market structure and pave the way for a recovery toward the $1.60–$1.65 range.

Until a clear breakout or breakdown occurs, XRP is likely to remain range-bound, with volatility driven by external catalysts.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) seems to be consolidating following a volatile start to the year. The lack of a decisive move in Bitcoin has capped upside momentum across altcoins, keeping XRP’s recovery attempts limited.

A North Korea–nexus threat actor is enhancing its social engineering playbook. The group is integrating AI-enabled lures into crypto-focused hacks, according to a new report from Google’s Mandiant team.

The operation reflects a continued evolution in state-linked cyber activity targeting the digital asset sector, which saw a notable increase in 2025.

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Fake Zoom Call Triggers Malware Attack on Crypto Firm 

In its latest report, Mandiant detailed its investigation into an intrusion targeting a FinTech company in the cryptocurrency sector. The attack was attributed to UNC1069. It is a financially motivated threat group active since at least 2018, with links to North Korea.

“Mandiant has observed this threat actor evolve its tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs), tooling, and targeting. Since at least 2023, the group has shifted from spear-phishing techniques and traditional finance (TradFi) targeting towards the Web3 industry, such as centralized exchanges (CEX), software developers at financial institutions, high-technology companies, and individuals at venture capital funds,” the report read.

According to investigators, the intrusion began with a compromised Telegram account belonging to a crypto industry executive. The attackers used the hijacked profile to contact the victim. They gradually built trust before sending a Calendly invitation for a video meeting.

The meeting link directed the target to a fake Zoom domain hosted on infrastructure controlled by the threat actors. During the call, the victim reported seeing what appeared to be a deepfake video of a CEO from another cryptocurrency company. 

“While Mandiant was unable to recover forensic evidence to independently verify the use of AI models in this specific instance, the reported ruse is similar to a previously publicly reported incident with similar characteristics, where deepfakes were also allegedly used,” the report added.

The attackers created the impression of audio problems in the meeting to justify the next step. They instructed the victim to run troubleshooting commands on their device.

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Those commands, tailored for both macOS and Windows systems, secretly initiated the infection chain. This led to the deployment of multiple malware components.

Mandiant identified seven distinct malware families deployed during the intrusion. The tools were designed to steal Keychain credentials, extract browser cookies and login data, access Telegram session information, and collect other sensitive files. 

Investigators assessed that the objective was twofold: to enable potential cryptocurrency theft and harvest data that could support future social engineering attacks.

The investigation revealed an unusually large volume of tooling dropped onto a single host. This suggested a highly targeted effort to harvest as much data as possible from the compromised individual.

The incident is part of a broader pattern rather than a standalone case. In December 2025, BeInCrypto reported that North Korean-linked actors siphoned more than $300 million by posing as trusted industry figures during fraudulent Zoom and Microsoft Teams meetings.

The scale of activity throughout the year was even more striking. In total, North Korean threat groups were responsible for $2.02 billion in stolen digital assets in 2025, a 51% increase from the previous year.

Chainalysis also revealed that scam clusters tied on-chain to AI service providers show significantly higher operational efficiency than those without such links. According to the firm, this trend suggests a future in which AI becomes a standard component of most scam operations.

With AI tools growing more accessible and advanced, creating convincing deepfakes is easier than ever. The coming time will test whether the crypto sector can adapt its security fast enough to confront these advanced threats.

ZRO has entered the top 100 alts after a massive surge, while most other altcoins have plunged hard yet again.

After several consecutive days of trading sideways between $68,000 and $72,000, bitcoin’s floor gave in hours ago and the asset dipped below $67,000 for the first time since Friday.

Most altcoins have joined the ride south, with ETH dumping beneath $2,000, XRP trading below $1.40, and BNB struggling to remain above $600.

BTC Slips Below $67K

It’s safe to say that the past couple of weeks have been highly unfavorable for the crypto bulls. On January 28, exactly two weeks ago, bitcoin stood tall at $90,000. However, it charted a notable price correction since then that lasted days and culminated, at least for now, last Friday.

At the time, the cryptocurrency plunged by approximately $17,000 in just over 24 hours and dumped to $60,000 on Friday morning. This became its lowest price point since before the US presidential elections in November 2024. The bulls were quick to intervene at this point and helped BTC rebound to $72,000 on that same day.

The weekend was calmer, with bitcoin trading sideways between $68,000 and $72,000. It tried to take down the upper boundary but failed on Monday and Tuesday and the subsequent rejection drove it south to under $67,000 where it currently struggles as well.

Its market capitalization has declined to $1.340 trillion on CG, while its dominance over the alts has dropped below 57%.

Alts Back in Red

Most alts have suffered even more over the past day. Ethereum has lost the $2,000 support after a 3.2% decline. A 4.1% drop from XRP has driven it to well below $1.40, while BNB is down to $600 after a 5% decrease.

SOL, ADA, HYPE, DOGE, LINK, LTC, and many other larger-cap alts are also in the red, while XMR has defied the trend today with a 3% increase to over $340.

Pi Network’s native token has charted another all-time low, while MYX is down by over 12%. BGB is next in terms of daily losses with a 9% drop. In contrast, ZRO has entered the top 100 alts after skyrocketing by 20%.

The total crypto market cap has shed over $50 billion daily and is down to $2.350 trillion on CG.

The timeframe might be shorter than you expect.

The cryptocurrency market is bleeding out once again, led by bitcoin’s decline to under $67,000 for the first time since last Friday’s calamity.

However, one analyst believes there’s finally good news for BTC and XRP, and he even provided a more precise timing for the potential rebound.

The primary cryptocurrency has been in a free-fall state for weeks. It stood over $90,000 on January 28, but dumped by $30,000 since then to bottom out, at least for now, at $60,000 last Friday.

It tried to recover some ground since then and tapped $72,000 on a couple of occasions, but was stopped yesterday again and driven to under $67,000 as of press time.

Approximately at the time when the latest correction took place, popular analyst Ali Martinez said on X that the early TD Sequential buy signal had flashed for BTC. Moreover, he was precise with the timing of the potential rebound, claiming that it could be in the next 3-9 days.

Early TD Sequential buy signal on Bitcoin $BTC, suggesting a potential rebound could take shape over the next 3–9 days. pic.twitter.com/E1poXoOcNI

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) February 10, 2026

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The metric, developed by Tom DeMark, identifies potential market reversal points, usually after a strong move in either direction. Martinez has frequently posted about the TD Sequential for several cryptocurrencies, and the indicator’s success rate has been rather impressive, especially for Ripple’s XRP.

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Before the latest drop, the cross-border token also flashed a buy signal. Although it has since retraced by 3-4%, Martinez reminded that the TD Sequential has “perfectly timed” the local top for XRP in the past, and could signal a rapid rebound now.

The TD Sequential perfectly timed the local top on $XRP, and now it’s flashing a buy signal. pic.twitter.com/5FI3Pepsnz

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) February 10, 2026

Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, has dropped out of Bloomberg’s list of the world’s 500 richest people.

Armstrong’s net worth has fallen by more than $10 billion since July 2025. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, it is down from a peak of $17.7 billion to around $7.5 billion.

Brian Armstrong’s Wealth Plummets as Coinbase Shares and Bitcoin Price Slide

The latest slide comes after JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut its price target for Coinbase stock by 27% on February 10, citing “softness in crypto prices,” declining trading volumes, and slower stablecoin adoption.

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Coinbase shares have mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility, falling 60% from a July 18 high, while Bitcoin itself has dropped nearly 50% from its early October 2025 all-time high of around $126,000 to below $63,000 as of early February 2026.

Armstrong’s wealth is closely tied to his 14% stake in Coinbase, the New York-based crypto trading platform he co-founded with Fred Ehrsam in 2012.

He also holds investments in NewLimit, a biotech startup focused on longevity, and has historically sold portions of his Coinbase holdings over time.

Despite the sharp paper losses, Armstrong remains a billionaire, with his net worth estimated at approximately $7.5 billion.

The impact of the crypto slump extends beyond Armstrong. Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, co-founders of Gemini, have seen their net worths fall to $1.9 billion each from $8.2 billion in October 2025.

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Gemini recently announced plans to cut roughly 25% of its workforce and scale back some international operations.

Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, saw his fortune shrink from $10.3 billion to $6.2 billion following a greater-than-expected $500 million loss in Q4 2025.

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Strategy Inc. co-founder Michael Saylor also lost about two-thirds of his wealth, bringing his net worth to $3.4 billion.

Coinbase Navigates Market Headwinds While Armstrong Stays Bullish

Coinbase itself has faced operational headwinds amid the market downturn. Trading volumes have dropped sharply, and Q4 2025 transaction revenue is projected to decline 33.5% year over year.

Meanwhile, Polymarket betters see a 29% chance that Coinbase Global’s GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter will beat $0.61.

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During the sell-off, the “Coinbase premium”—the price gap between BTC on Coinbase versus other exchanges—turned negative. This indicates weaker US institutional demand and potential outflows.

Coinbase premium just hit one of its lowest levels in over a year!

That signals heavy US selling pressure, keeping Bitcoin under sustained downside momentum. pic.twitter.com/9VvzmBQvpw

— Trireme (@triremetrading) February 9, 2026

The exchange is further challenged by regulatory scrutiny and competition from other crypto platforms like Hyperliquid.

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Despite the turbulent environment, Armstrong has maintained a bullish long-term outlook. He has publicly described crypto as “eating financial services at an incredible rate” and views market slumps as opportunities to build new products.

It’s been a volatile few days in the crypto markets.

This is nothing new. Crypto has gone through many market cycles at this point. Personally, this doesn’t change my outlook – I don’t see how you can be anything but long-term bullish on crypto. It’s eating financial services at…

— Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) February 7, 2026

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Armstrong has also predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, framing the digital asset as a tool for wealth equalization and financial innovation.

However, while Armstrong’s net worth has been heavily impacted, his position as a founder and major shareholder could strengthen over time.

Historically, downturns have consolidated power among surviving platforms, and Coinbase may emerge leaner and more dominant if retail and institutional adoption rebounds.

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Nevertheless, prolonged market weakness or a full “crypto winter” could pressure growth and test leadership strategies.

The recent wave of losses reflects the high volatility of crypto markets. While Armstrong’s exit from Bloomberg’s top 500 reflects a sharp contraction in paper wealth, long-term crypto pioneers like him have weathered multiple market cycles since 2012.

New activity has been reported in a Bitcoin wallet tied to an alleged ransom demand in the high-profile disappearance of 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie, the mother of NBC Today co-anchor Savannah Guthrie.

TMZ confirmed Tuesday that for the first time since the ransom note was received, there has been “activity” in the cryptocurrency account referenced in the initial ransom demand sent to multiple media outlets, including TMZ itself.

The details of the transaction, including the amount transferred and the sender, have not been disclosed publicly. Still, the development marks a significant update in an investigation that had seen no confirmed contact from the kidnappers since earlier deadlines for ransom payments passed.

Here’s what we know about the Nancy Guthrie abduction

Nancy Guthrie was last seen at her home in Catalina Foothills, Arizona in late January and was reported missing on February 1. Law enforcement has treated her disappearance as a likely abduction after finding evidence of a struggle and DNA-matched blood at the scene.

Shortly after her disappearance, at least one ransom note demanding payment in Bitcoin (BTC) was sent to two Tucson television stations and TMZ. The note reportedly set two deadlines and demanded millions in Bitcoin for Guthrie’s safe return.

According to TMZ founder Harvey Levin, the ransom wallet tied to the first letter showed activity late Tuesday, hours after the FBI released surveillance images of a person of interest. Levin said he observed the activity “about 12 minutes” after it happened, though he declined to elaborate on the nature of the transaction.

Surveillance footage and photos of a masked person seen near Guthrie’s home early the morning she vanished, and a person of interest was detained for questioning south of Tucson earlier this week.

At present, officials have not confirmed whether the Bitcoin transaction is connected to the alleged kidnappers, the Guthrie family, law enforcement, or another party, and investigations are ongoing.

The reported Bitcoin wallet activity in the Guthrie case comes amid a wider global surge in cryptocurrency-linked kidnappings. French authorities recently arrested six suspects in a case where a magistrate and her mother were held for a crypto ransom before being rescued.

In a separate cross-border operation last year, Spanish and Danish police dismantled a gang accused of abducting and killing a crypto holder in a violent attempt to seize access to digital wallets, underscoring the growing physical security risks faced by holders of digital assets.

Defend American Jobs, an affiliate of the crypto-focused Fairshake PAC, is planning a $5 million push to back Alabama Senate candidate Barry Moore, according to Bloomberg. The five-week campaign, set to roll out on broadcast television and the Fox News Channel, includes a Trump endorsement as part of its messaging. The reporting cites a Fairshake statement, underscoring how crypto-aligned political committees are leaning into federal races to shape policy considerations around digital assets. The move arrives amid a broader pattern of crypto-adjacent fundraising that has become a defining feature of contemporary U.S. politics, with parties and PACs leveraging media buys to influence voters on regulatory and market issues.

Key takeaways

• Crypto-linked PACs are deploying large ad buys (millions) across major TV outlets to influence voters in Senate races where crypto policy is a live issue.
• Fairshake is backed by notable crypto industry players, signaling the depth of corporate interest behind crypto-friendly political campaigns.
• Barry Moore has a documented history of crypto-friendly positions, including past committee work and public statements endorsing a pro-crypto stance.
• Past fundraising cycles show substantial crypto-related spending, with tens of millions directed toward pro-crypto candidates and policies.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $COIN

Sentiment: Neutral

Price impact: Neutral. The article centers on political fundraising rather than immediate market responses.

Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Monitor policy developments and campaign activity for potential long-term crypto-market implications.

Market context: The episode illustrates how regulatory debates and macro-fund flows intersect with political campaigns, as crypto-friendly narratives gain traction in a climate of heightened attention to digital assets and related policy clarity.

Why it matters

The funding activity highlights a strategic approach by crypto interests to influence policy at a national level. Fairshake’s $5 million expenditure, backed by high-profile crypto affiliates, shows how political spending can be concentrated around candidates perceived as sympathetic to favorable regulatory treatment. The push also underscores how partisan environments can amplify crypto policy debates, potentially shaping how lawmakers address innovation, market structure, and consumer protections in the years ahead.

Barry Moore’s profile in this narrative is notable. Elected to the U.S. House in 2020, Moore served on the Agriculture Committee and has been associated with discussions around responsible crypto regulation, including the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. His public statements have aligned with a view of digital assets as integral to the state’s and the nation’s economic future. A December post on X appeared to reflect support for Trump’s crypto position and executive actions, reinforcing the broader pattern of crypto-leaning rhetoric among certain Republican lawmakers.

Observers point to independent assessments that rate Moore as strongly supportive of crypto, based on a track record of statements and policy positions. This kind of labeling—when aggregated by advocacy groups—helps investors and voters gauge which candidates might push for clearer rules, more predictable tax treatment, and policies that foster blockchain innovation. However, the policy landscape remains unsettled, with regulators and lawmakers weighing a range of approaches to digital assets and market infrastructure. The Alabama polling data cited in local coverage suggests a demographic segment receptive to pro-crypto messaging, even as battles over specifics persist.

What to watch next

• Watch the five-week ad schedule for Moore’s campaign, including potential follow-ups on Fox News and other broadcast outlets.
• Monitor any new statements from Fairshake or its affiliates about policy positions, as the fundraising narrative evolves ahead of the primary and general election.
• Track regulatory developments in Washington related to digital assets that could influence campaign messaging and voter concerns.
• Observe polling updates in Alabama and other states where crypto-leaning politicians are contesting elections, as shifts could alter fundraising dynamics.

Sources & verification

• Bloomberg Government reporting on Fairshake’s $5 million Alabama Senate primary ad buy and Trump endorsement.
• The Fairshake statement cited by Bloomberg outlining support for Barry Moore and the five-week media push.
• References to Fairshake’s backing by Coinbase and Ripple Labs and the broader crypto-aligned PAC ecosystem.
• Historical spending by crypto-related PACs, including a figure around $130 million in the 2024 elections.
• Alabama Daily News poll data showing initial voter preferences for Moore and Marshall in a February snapshot.

Crypto influence in Alabama politics and the midterms

Defend American Jobs’ $5 million commitment to back Barry Moore illustrates how crypto-aligned fundraising seeks to shape policy conversations ahead of the midterms. The campaign’s five-week plan, anchored in television and cable advertising, reflects a broader strategy: deploy high-impact media in key markets to foreground a crypto-friendly economic narrative. The Bloomberg report underscores that Fairshake’s approach includes support from a constellation of industry players, and it notes that the PAC’s actions are part of a wider effort to elevate crypto policy in electoral debates. The involvement of a presidential figure in the messaging—Donald Trump—also signals the high-level salience of digital-asset policy among partisans and donors as they map out policy priorities for the coming years.

Beyond the Alabama race, the story speaks to the persistence of crypto-asset policy as a political issue. Fairshake’s public positioning, supported by industry backers, demonstrates how corporate resources are deployed to influence voters’ perceptions of digital assets, market structure, and regulatory clarity. The fact that Fairshake is described as one of the most prominent crypto-related PACs—backed by major players—highlights the scale of financial flows that can accompany policy debates. As crypto advocates argue for clearer rules and more predictable frameworks, lawmakers who express supportive positions could become central figures in shaping the regulatory environment that will govern innovation, exchanges, and the broader ecosystem.

Barry Moore’s record and public statements contribute to a broader pattern in which certain members of Congress articulate a forward-looking view of crypto as economic infrastructure rather than a niche technology. From his early congressional tenure to his more recent statements, Moore has tied his messaging to the idea that crypto is part of Alabama’s—and America’s—future. The X post from December, implying alignment with Trump’s stance on crypto, reinforces this posture in a political climate where party alignment and donor influence can translate into policy signals with real-world implications for the industry’s growth and regulatory trajectory. In parallel, local polling indicates a receptivity to pro-crypto messaging among Republican voters, suggesting that fundraising narratives could gain traction as campaigns scale their outreach ahead of primary and general elections.

What to watch next

• Track the continuation of Moore’s ad campaigns as the five-week window unfolds, including potential interviews and discussions on crypto policy among campaign surrogates.
• Watch for further disclosures from Fairshake and its industry partners regarding policy positions and voting records that align with crypto-friendly approaches.
• Follow regulatory developments at the federal level that could influence campaign messaging, such as discussions around tax treatment, market structure, and consumer protections for digital assets.

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Asset manager Franklin Templeton, which oversees about $1.6 trillion in assets, and Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by daily trading volume, have launched a new program that allows institutions to use tokenized money market funds (MMFs) as collateral when trading on Binance.

Under the collaboration, eligible clients can use tokenized fund shares issued through Franklin Templeton’s Benji Technology Platform as collateral, according to a press release viewed by The Defiant. Benji is Franklin Templeton’s proprietary blockchain-based technology stack.

The release said the assets stay off the exchange in regulated custody, while their value is “mirrored” inside Binance’s trading system. Custody and settlement are handled through Ceffu, Binance’s institutional custody partner.

The setup is meant to reduce risk for institutions while allowing them to keep earning yield on their assets. The move highlights a larger trend of firms offering yield as a way to stay competitive – especially as more financial activity moves on-chain.

“Since partnering in 2025, our work with Binance has focused on making digital finance actually work for institutions,” said Roger Bayston, Head of Digital Assets at Franklin Templeton. “Our off-exchange collateral program is just that: letting clients easily put their assets to work in regulated custody while safely earning yield in new ways. That’s the future Benji was designed for, and working with partners like Binance allows us to deliver it at scale.”

The launch follows Franklin Templeton’s broader push to bring MMFs into blockchain-based finance while remaining fully regulated. Earlier this year, the firm updated two institutional funds to support stablecoin reserves and enable distribution via blockchain systems.

It also builds on the expansion of the Benji platform across public blockchains. In September 2025, Franklin Templeton rolled out Benji on BNB Chain, joining existing deployments on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Solana, and Stellar.

Binance’s native token BNB is down about 2.5% on the day, changing hands at $622, according to CoinGecko.

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, is working with crypto-friendly tradfi firm Franklin Templeton to offer an institutional off-exchange collateral program, making digital markets more secure and capital-efficient.

The new service allows eligible clients to use tokenized money market fund shares issued through Franklin Templeton’s Benji Technology Platform as off-exchange collateral to trade on Binance using Ceffu’s, the exchange’s partner custody layer.

The program alleviates a long-standing pain point for institutional traders by allowing them to use traditional, regulated, yield-bearing money market fund assets in digital markets without having to park them on an exchange, according to a press release.

The value of Benji-issued fund shares is reflected in Binance’s trading environment, while the tokenized assets themselves are securely held off-exchange in regulated custody. This reduces counterparty risk, letting institutional participants earn yield and support their trading activity without hedging on custody, liquidity, or regulatory protections, the firms said.

“Partnering with Franklin Templeton to offer tokenized real-world assets for off-exchange collateral settlement is a natural next step in our mission to bring digital assets and traditional finance closer together,” said Catherine Chen, Head of VIP & Institutional at Binance.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the delayed Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for January on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.

Volatility around the US Dollar (USD) will likely ramp up on the employment report, with investors looking for fresh insights on the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) path forward on interest rates.

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What to Expect From the Next Nonfarm Payrolls Report?

The BLS reported early last week that it had postponed the release of the official employment report, originally scheduled on Friday, due to the partial government shutdown. After the US House passed a package on Tuesday to end the shutdown, the agency announced that it will release the labor market data on Wednesday, February 11.

Investors expect NFP to rise by 70K following the 50K increase recorded in December. In this period, the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, is projected to soften to 3.6% from 3.8%.

Previewing the employment report, TD Securities analysts note that they expect job gains to have remained subdued in January, increasing by 45K.

“We look for private to add 40K and government to add 5K. We expect private sector strength to be concentrated in healthcare and construction. We look for the Unemployment Rate to show continued signs of stabilization, remaining at 4.4%. The low-fire, low-hire labor market remains. Average Hourly Earnings likely increased 0.3% m/m and 3.7% y/y,” they add.

How Will the US September Nonfarm Payrolls Affect Eur/USD?

The USD started the month on a firm footing as markets reacted to the nomination of Kevin Warsh, who served as a Fed Governor from 2006 to 2011, as the new chair of the Fed. Meanwhile, the USD also benefited from the heightened volatility surrounding precious metals, especially Silver and Gold, and Stock markets. 

In turn, the USD Index, which gauges the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.5% in the first week of February. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said earlier in the month that she believes the labor market will continue to be supported by last year’s interest rate cuts. 

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Cook further noted that the labor market has stabilized and is approximately in balance, adding that policymakers remain highly attentive to the potential for a rapid shift. 

Similarly, Governor Philip Jefferson argued that the job market is likely in balance with a low-hire, low-fire environment. The CME Group FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 15% probability of a 25 basis-point (bps) rate cut in March. 

In case the NFP reading disappoints, with a print below 30K, and the Unemployment Rate rises unexpectedly, the USD could come under pressure with the immediate reaction, opening the door to a leg higher in EUR/USD. On the other hand, an NFP figure at or above the market expectation could reaffirm another policy hold next month. 

The market positioning suggests that the USD has some room on the upside in this scenario. Investors will also pay close attention to the wage inflation component of the report. 

If Average Hourly Earnings rise less than expected, the USD could find it difficult to gather strength, even if the headline NFP print arrives near the market forecast.

Danske Bank analysts argue that softer wage growth could negatively impact consumer activity and pave the way for a dovish Fed action.

“The Challenger report showed more job cuts than expected in January and the JOLTs Job Openings came in at 6.5m in December (consensus 7.2m). Hence, the US ratio of job openings to unemployed fell to just 0.87 in December. Such cooling is usually a good predictor for weakening wage growth and may be a concern for the private consumption outlook and, all else equal, supports the case for earlier cuts from the Fed,” they explain.

Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:

“The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 50, and EUR/USD fluctuates above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) after having tested this dynamic support last week, reflecting buyers’ willingness to retain control.” “On the upside, 1.2000 (round level, psychological level) aligns as the next resistance before 1.2080 (January 27 high) and 1.2160 (static level). Looking south, the first key support level could be spotted at 1.1680, where the 100-day SMA is located, before 1.1620-1.1600 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the January 2025-January 2026 uptrend). A decisive drop below this support region could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide.”